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View Full Version : Kentucky Derby.... winner?


Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 10:24 PM
Man, I always like to remain positive, but after the big preps of the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, and Santa Anita Derby you really have wonder if a single horse can go 10 furlongs, much less even 9.

This was a tough weekend to watch for Kentucky Derby hopefuls in which nobody showed a single ounce of anything when the real racing began. The winners simply didn't get passed in long and tiring stretch runs.

I thought this was a pretty good crop. And still could be, but at this point in time, it will be anybody's game come May 6th.

But looking on the positive side, it should be a live and lovely board for the Derby. Favorite should be 10/1. And an underlay. :lol:

Andrick
04-08-2017, 11:40 PM
I have a feeling I'm going to start to look at the Sunland Derby winner, Hence, as being quite playable at long odds come Derby time, which I never would have thought the weekend that race was won.

f2tornado
04-09-2017, 12:10 AM
I have a feeling I'm going to start to look at the Sunland Derby winner, Hence, as being quite playable at long odds come Derby time, which I never would have thought the weekend that race was won.

While I believe Always Dreaming has had the best 9F prep by far, I also have positive thoughts on Hence. I made good use of the All Others button in the final Future exacta wager to account for him and any afterthoughts that sometimes hit the board. The Always Dreaming over All Others (Hence, etc) offered 95-1. It feels like a favorite over something goofy kind of year.

Andrick
04-09-2017, 12:36 AM
While I believe Always Dreaming has had the best 9F prep by far, I also have positive thoughts on Hence. I made good use of the All Others button in the final Future exacta wager to account for him and any afterthoughts that sometimes hit the board. The Always Dreaming over All Others (Hence, etc) offered 95-1. It feels like a favorite over something goofy kind of year.

Yeah, I see a few things to like about Hence as well. Showed plenty of finish in his 9F prep and was able to carry that finishing move of his a long way as he started it pretty early in the far turn. He still had a whole lot of length to his stride at the wire too, so I feel pretty good about him getting 10F. He'll be going into the Derby on a positive form pattern as well, whether it be on thorograph or otherwise. Improving from race to race is always nice to see this time of year especially when his best race was his last race. His BSF of 93 was a little weak, but playable in this year's crop when he's at long odds. May just be getting good at the right time. Or maybe not. But his odds say he may be worth including on Derby day.

PowerUpPaynter
04-09-2017, 12:38 PM
I have a feeling I'm going to start to look at the Sunland Derby winner, Hence, as being quite playable at long odds come Derby time, which I never would have thought the weekend that race was won.

+1 :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

yankeelpn
04-09-2017, 04:54 PM
Agreed!

1. Gunnevera "Ill take at >10/1"
2. McCraken "Prob 2-3 choice?"
3. Hence "Forgotten horse at nice odds"
4. Girvin "Always wins and another forgotten horse at >10/1, dont leave out of the Super!" 5.Classic Empire "Depends on Ark Derby"

PowerUpPaynter
04-09-2017, 07:29 PM
Rough thoughts as of now( which will change next week )

Trifecta
Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming
w/ Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming, Patch, Gunnevera, McCraken, Practical Joke, and an Arkansas Derby horse
w/ Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming, Patch, Gunnevera, McCraken, Practical joke, an Arkansas Derby horse and maybe another ark derby horse.

PowerUpPaynter
04-09-2017, 07:44 PM
but lets not kid ourselves after the way the prep season went do you really think there is going to be any type of formful outcome in the derby?

arw629
04-09-2017, 09:05 PM
Rough thoughts as of now( which will change next week )

Trifecta
Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming
w/ Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming, Patch, Gunnevera, McCraken, Practical Joke, and an Arkansas Derby horse
w/ Irish War Cry, Hence, Always Dreaming, Patch, Gunnevera, McCraken, Practical joke, an Arkansas Derby horse and maybe another ark derby horse.

No love for One Liner? He has the most impressive 3 yo win this yr to this point IMO

PowerUpPaynter
04-09-2017, 09:29 PM
No love for One Liner? He has the most impressive 3 yo win this yr to this point IMO

everything will change for me next week. im just starting to make some type of a rough idea in my head. If one line wins next week yes ill include him same with classic empire

no breathalyzer
04-10-2017, 12:16 AM
McCraken

yankeelpn
04-10-2017, 06:46 AM
Ill probably box Gunnevera and McCraken

Secondbest
04-10-2017, 10:29 AM
but lets not kid ourselves after the way the prep season went do you really think there is going to be any type of formful outcome in the derby?

No.

letswastemoney
04-10-2017, 11:55 AM
I only like Hence underneath. He probably can't win the Derby, but he's going to be ignored and could blow up the trifecta.

lamboguy
04-10-2017, 12:05 PM
I only like Hence underneath. He probably can't win the Derby, but he's going to be ignored and could blow up the trifecta.
i know a little bit about HENCE. he certainly doesn't have the numbers than other's do. however the race that he comes out of wasn't any worse than the other ones and the horse is starting to put things together on a day to day basis. i will know more about him after he works again next week to figure out if he has a good chance or not.

we still have the Arkansas and Illinois Derby's to get further clues.

CincyHorseplayer
04-10-2017, 12:10 PM
Horseplayers.

A bettable race for a change!

PowerUpPaynter
04-10-2017, 03:14 PM
i know a little bit about HENCE. he certainly doesn't have the numbers than other's do. however the race that he comes out of wasn't any worse than the other ones and the horse is starting to put things together on a day to day basis. i will know more about him after he works again next week to figure out if he has a good chance or not.

we still have the Arkansas and Illinois Derby's to get further clues.

what you looking for in the work?

Parson
04-10-2017, 05:26 PM
Does the Illinois Derby award points???

yankeelpn
04-10-2017, 05:32 PM
Does the Illinois Derby award points???

Nope, unfortunately

dballard125
04-11-2017, 01:17 AM
No idea as of right now. This thing is so wide open. Nobody really impressed in the preps, or 2017 for that matter. Damn near every horse that has enough points has at least one clunker to his name.

I don't know what to think of McCraken's performance in BG...did Wilkes reserve something for the KD, or is that simply what the horse is.

Always Dreaming ran impressively in the FD but I wonder how much the track aided in that performance.

Girvin is a solid performer but he just doesn't have the "it" factor to me.

I've been intruigued by Irish War Cry since his Holy Bull win but that clunker in the FOY, combined with a not so impressive performance (in my opinion) in the Wood has me a bit concerned. He just seems like a horse that will get caught up in a pace dual and finish somewhere between 6th and 10th to me.

I'm interested to see how Classic Empire runs in the Arkansas Derby.



This just seems like a year when a 15-1 shot or longer wins this thing, and the exotics produce big time payouts. I'm going to be looking closely at Hence, State of Honor, Practical Joke, and Fast and Accurate.

I'll definitely be playing Gunnevera on top and underneath in various exotics. He's the only horse that has Buckpasser X and a final 3/8 time under 37 4/5 (someone correct me if I'm wrong on that please).

PowerUpPaynter
04-11-2017, 07:57 AM
This just seems like a year when a 15-1 shot or longer wins this thing, and the exotics produce big time payouts. I'm going to be looking closely at Hence, State of Honor, Practical Joke, and Fast and Accurate.


Did you say Fast and Accurate? :eek: Please enlighten me, what am I missing? I thought he was the easiest toss this century... Artificial surface horse with super slow final fractions and a crappy pedigree.

rastajenk
04-11-2017, 08:11 AM
I've been intruigued by Irish War Cry since his Holy Bull win but that clunker in the FOY, combined with a not so impressive performance (in my opinion) in the Wood has me a bit concerned. He just seems like a horse that will get caught up in a pace dual and finish somewhere between 6th and 10th to me.
Is it even possible for a Wood winner to be the Wise Guy horse, or is that just wrong by definition? Because that's what I thought right after that race. There was nothing that great about anything about the race, except that he showed patience and some maturity and finished well. If he ships well and is in a happy place, he could attain a good (enough) early spot to get first jump on the spent leaders, have the lead at the eight pole, and hang on.

21-1 in the final future pool puts him in Wise Guy territory, but that was before the Wood, I guess. Has to be considered.

Bah!!! Didn't even see the thread about him right below....more coffee needed.

PowerUpPaynter
04-11-2017, 08:59 AM
im guessing bewtween 8-1 and 10-1 derby day. I got him in pool 1 at 26-1 so im glad im covered with him and can focus on other plays derby day

Hoops McCann
04-11-2017, 12:19 PM
looking very wide open. don't even think you can throw out Thunder Snow.

PowerUpPaynter
04-11-2017, 08:37 PM
looking very wide open. don't even think you can throw out Thunder Snow.

I hate the UAE derby horses... SO hard to handicap

Davidc110
04-11-2017, 10:25 PM
When was the last time a Arkansas derby horse won? Don't like the 21 days before the KD. I am looking forward to see how classic empire performs.

PhantomOnTour
04-11-2017, 10:26 PM
When was the last time a Arkansas derby horse won? Don't like the 21 days before the KD. I am looking forward to see how classic empire performs.

American Pharoah in 2015

Davidc110
04-11-2017, 10:30 PM
Thanks, can't believe I spaced out on that.

boys at tosconova
04-11-2017, 11:29 PM
looking very wide open. don't even think you can throw out Thunder Snow.

I hate the UAE derby horses... SO hard to handicap

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2012/09/throwing-money-away.gif

dballard125
04-11-2017, 11:58 PM
Did you say Fast and Accurate? :eek: Please enlighten me, what am I missing? I thought he was the easiest toss this century... Artificial surface horse with super slow final fractions and a crappy pedigree.

Honestly, I'm just looking at every angle possible this year because the race is so wide open. His time in the Spiral certainly wasn't great but Animal Kingdom's win there back in 2011 was 1:52:32. Animal Kingdom had a better foundation leading up the KD though, and Fast & Accurate seems like he could be distance challenged to me. So you may be right when you suggest he's an insta-toss.

f2tornado
04-12-2017, 08:26 AM
Did you say Fast and Accurate? :eek: Please enlighten me, what am I missing? I thought he was the easiest toss this century... Artificial surface horse with super slow final fractions and a crappy pedigree.

I'm not going to bet him given he crawled home in the Spiral but do consider he is from the same female family as Golden Soul. He's got 20 dosage points including two solid and a DI of 1.86. If I didn't see Hansen as the sire I'd be thinking this one would have no trouble going long. There are certainly worse bombers out there.

dballard125
04-13-2017, 12:23 AM
I'm not going to bet him given he crawled home in the Spiral but do consider he is from the same female family as Golden Soul. He's got 20 dosage points including two solid and a DI of 1.86. If I didn't see Hansen as the sire I'd be thinking this one would have no trouble going long. There are certainly worse bombers out there.

Hansen being the sire is what has me worried about him getting the distance as well.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 02:46 AM
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2012/09/throwing-money-away.gif

Careful.

I have a really big net. :cool:

Either way, Mubtahiij wasn't a stiff, and Lani was more than credible last year with a 9th in the Derby, 5th in the Preakness, and a 3rd in the Belmont running all 3 legs.

You really want to toss the supposed best entry of these 3 from across the pond amid what may well be the "lessest" bunch the last 3 years on our side of the pond?

boys at tosconova
04-17-2017, 12:34 AM
Careful.

I have a really big net. :cool:

Either way, Mubtahiij wasn't a stiff, and Lani was more than credible last year with a 9th in the Derby, 5th in the Preakness, and a 3rd in the Belmont running all 3 legs.

You really want to toss the supposed best entry of these 3 from across the pond amid what may well be the "lessest" bunch the last 3 years on our side of the pond?

no. i don't want you or anyone else to toss the uae horse. i encourage everyone on this board to bet the uae horse with all their $$$ hand over fist. play heavily in the exotics as well.

plz people,.....play this horse in the derby and you will win so much $$$ you won't be able to fold your wallet. these horses are proven commodities and always run well here.

in before the first person to say "i find him intriguing" without saying why they do. it's become an annual ritual on the internetz.

boys at tosconova
04-17-2017, 02:47 AM
good horses are going to be on the front and/or very close to the lead in this derby.

AD/Irish war cry/classic emp.....that's a tough threesome. and all three will be well bet and should be in great position, regardless if you like them or not.

then you have state of honor/battle of midway and battalion runner...it doesn't look like the first 2 need the lead as well. so their tactical speed could serve them well if they're good enough.

irap can be up close as well, maybe even girvin.

it's going to be very interesting who's right behind these. there seems to be several closers that could hit the board

MonmouthParkJoe
04-17-2017, 01:03 PM
First time in a long time I have no strong opinion on any horse in here. Might be a case of just watching the race and putting in some small bets for the hell of it. Or just avoid the chaos and use alot of them in a horizontal bet. Most likely that is my plan.

boys at tosconova
04-17-2017, 08:29 PM
AD
Irish war cry
classic emp
state honor
midway
irap
malgacy
fast and accurate

barring post or a change in strategy all these horses figure to utilize some form of tactical speed. basically 1/3 of the field. and this isn;t taking into account some kind of unusual strategy of horse that you ddnt expect to be there, which there might be.

i don't give malagacy and fast and accurate much chance. but what i don't know is who will comprise the 2nd group of 6/7 horses right behind these. and if you can figure it out it could reward you immensely. these next few horses might have some serious talent enought to even win the race. and from looking at the charts. post 15 seems to be the cutoff.

Bennie
04-17-2017, 09:00 PM
I think Battalion Runner and Conquest, if he runs, will also be in the top half of the field through the early stages. Second tier looks to include Girvin, Practical Joke, J Boys Echo, Tapwrit and Patch.
I can see Classic, Irish, and State hanging around from the early runners and Girvin, Practical and Patch from the second tier. McCraken and Hence closing from the rear.

boys at tosconova
04-17-2017, 09:08 PM
I think Battalion Runner and Conquest, if he runs, will also be in the top half of the field through the early stages. Second tier looks to include Girvin, Practical Joke, J Boys Echo, Tapwrit and Patch.
I can see Classic, Irish, and State hanging around from the early runners and Girvin, Practical and Patch from the second tier. McCraken and Hence closing from the rear.

i forgot about bat run as i complied the 2nd list. and obv if con quest mo runs he'll be moving to the front, but i don't think he'll run.

as for the 2nd grouping girvin is a decent/maybe place to start providing a decent post. it gets dicey after that imo, as many could utilize some speed as shown in lessor comp or maiden races.

it doesn't seem like gunnevera will be one of them. i have to say as impressive as the horse has been he's very close to not being used at all from me just because of running style and him being 18/19/20 for most of the race

Mulerider
04-17-2017, 09:17 PM
i forgot about bat run as i complied the 2nd list. and obv if con quest mo runs he'll be moving to the front, but i don't think he'll run.


According to Bloodhorse CMM's owners will make their decision tomorrow.

BTW, Bris ended up giving him a 95, and a 96 for CE.

boys at tosconova
04-17-2017, 09:24 PM
According to Bloodhorse CMM's owners will make their decision tomorrow.

BTW, Bris ended up giving him a 95, and a 96 for CE.

the owners are pretty obv racing poor. there's no other reason why not to when they had a chance to nominate for 6k a couple of weeks ago and they neglected not to do so.

horses4courses
04-17-2017, 09:31 PM
If it does, look no further than Gormley

Not the most gifted horse in the field,
but likely to benefit from a quick pace.

Jim Morrison summed it up accurately:
The west is the best, baby.......:headbanger:

Vinnie
04-17-2017, 10:17 PM
I believe that Hence possesses the flexibility or tractability in his running style to be a little closer to the pace or at least mid pack to launch his move late to put himself into contention. Hopefully he will be training well up until the race.

I love this one at the present time.

Mulerider
04-18-2017, 05:12 PM
Connections have decided to skip the KD, aim for Preakness.

http://www.elpasoproud.com/news/local-thoroughbred-races-to-next-assignment/693696084

Bennie
04-18-2017, 06:18 PM
that should move up Untrapped and Lookin at Lee as Cloud computing is supposed to pass also.

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 08:16 PM
that should move up Untrapped and Lookin at Lee as Cloud computing is supposed to pass also.

Hope its untrapped... easy toss

MNslappy
04-19-2017, 02:43 AM
Hope its untrapped... easy toss

I hope it's Lookin at Lee. Because he'll burn money from wise guys thinking "if only he could get a better trip this time." Which, he wont.

PowerUpPaynter
04-19-2017, 08:02 AM
I hope it's Lookin at Lee. Because he'll burn money from wise guys thinking "if only he could get a better trip this time." Which, he wont.

you mean this years Mo Tom?