New angle

[Valuist]

I've stumbled upon what I think is a decent angle. When we see a race w/a beaten favorite, we often think the chalk "lost the race", bounced, or is starting to go off form. In races where the top 2 betting choices run 2nd and 3rd (or at least the horses one interprets to be the top two "figure" horses) chances are the winner ran a huge race and is worthy of a big number. A couple instances recently come to mind: a grass race at Belmont a couple weeks ago. There was two fillies who figured to be very tough; one was named Suncoast Prkwy and I can't remember the other. They ended up running 2-3 behind a filly named Right On Ro, who had gone many attempts (at least 10) before finally winning. My first impression was that the horse won by default, but on paper the horses that I figured to run 1-3 ran 2-3-4. I feel this could be a potential key race and the winner was justified in getting a big number.

The other race was yesterday in the 4th at AP. The horses that ran 2-3 both figured to run around a 70 and there was a big gap from 3rd to 4th. But the winner ran a monsterous race, winning by 9. I would not be surprised to see Golden Verse earn a 87-90 Beyer for that effort and the horse looks like a good claim candidate.

[andicap]

Interesting idea, but on the claim -- isn't there a good chance Golden Verse will "bounce to the moon" as the cliche goes after such a huge race.Was it a lifetime top for him? How old is he?
Who knows how this could knock out for unless he gets careful handling.
It's my understanding from reading Ragozin's book that you look to claim "forging" horses, those making small improvements, rather than the "explosive" ones like Golden Verse who run a huge race out of the blue.
The forging horses are those who stay in form much longer and -- with adequate rest in between starts -- can go on winning streaks.
At least that's my recollection.

[Lance]

Andicap,

Yes, according to the book, forging horses are often better claims than explosive horses because forging horses often fire several good shots in a row, which can bring in a lot of purse money. He is differentiating forging horses from explosive horses for the purposes of claims, not bets. Explosive horses often make the best bets. They are the ones who will give you a big jump, often at big odds. After the big jump, the horse ceases to be explosive. It is not uncommon for horses to explode early in their careers and then go on to become forging horses. Forging horses can also be fine bets, but it's not a good idea to play them for a big jump. Finally, as you say, horses off big jumps are to be avoided in most cases.

[Valuist]

He is a 3YO and it was by far a lifetime top. But, he could pair up that top, and second, if he bounces on the race one claims him, he could be ready to roll in the next race; the first for the new barn.

[Fastracehorse]

What is a forging horse??

Thanx,

fffastt

[Skanoochies]

He has an anvil and does his own shoeing?:D

[Fastracehorse]

"And when I bet him he be packing the anvil with him."


I don't think that's a good thing.


fffastt

[NoDayJob]

:D Whenever a horse is caught forging he is penalized an additional 30 days before he can race at the same claiming price again. :D

NDJ

[ranchwest]

How many of you have heard a trainer on his cell phone in the paddock saying, "I think this is a forging horse, I think I'll claim this one"?

[Hosshead]

A forging horse will often run out of the money, then write the check (purse money) out to himself, usually for the win. Sometimes the dumber ones will make it out for the show purse.

[stuball]

:p :p :p :p :p ;) :D :D

Stuball


p.s. could not stop laughing

[Lance]

Ranchwest wrote:

"How many of you have heard a trainer on his cell phone in the paddock saying, "I think this is a forging horse, I think I'll claim this one"?"

"Forging" is a Sheets term, Ranchwest. Sheets-using trainers dominate the top of the standings at more than one track. Some use the term. Some don't. It really doesn't matter whether they use the term. What matters is what the term represents and whether they look for that--paddock phone calls and whether we happen to overhear them aside.

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by Lance
Ranchwest wrote:


"Forging" is a Sheets term, Ranchwest. Sheets-using trainers dominate the top of the standings at more than one track. Some use the term. Some don't. It really doesn't matter whether they use the term. What matters is what the term represents and whether they look for that--paddock phone calls and whether we happen to overhear them aside.

:D So who gives a "sheet"? :D

NDJ

[Fastracehorse]

'Sheet-using trainers dominate.'

No sheet??

fffastt

[andicap]

There ARE a number of trainers in the Northeast who use the
Sheets to help decide whether to claim a horse. Not saying
they are the majority or that the Sheets are the ONLY
thing they use, but it is an important tool for them. I've seen
them say so in interviews, etc.

A forging horse (and I'm no expert in the Sheets -- I don't use them), is one that is usually an older (4 and up) horse that has
already developed somewhat in his career and is now in great form.
These type of horses are expected to make small improvements in their figures in the short-term rather than the "explosive" moves you see out of 2 or 3 year olds who have recently passed their previous lifetime tops.
Of course, it's not that simplistic according to the Raggies. There are all kinds of different, esoteric patterns that they look for with forging horses (much depends on the patterns after the race in which the race ran a new lifetime top, how much the horse has developed in his lifetime, the rest between races, how big the top was, etc. ).
An explosive move example:
3 year old enters with a 16 lifetime top as a 2 year old.
In his 2nd race of the year he runs a 15. This horse is eligible to run a huge number after recuperative period of three weeks or move. He could move up 1 pt or 5 points. But if the horse DOES NOT run a better figure within a few races or 8 weeks or so you would be suspiciouis of this horse until he runs a new top again.

A forging horse
5 year old who has developed 5 points in his lifetime and his new top is a 14. (Definition of "developed:" how many points a horse has improved from the first race in his life that caused a setback -- his numbers to decline because the race knocked out the horse.
Rule of thumb, horses improve 7 to 10 points over their lifetime. Less for sprint horses and maybe filles. Again, there are lots of exceptions.
So if this horse ran a 13, that would be a 1 point improvement and he would be eligible to become a forging horse.
His pattern might look like 14, 13, 16, 15 -- assuming the next race is within a reasonable amt of time from the "13," he would be very eligible to improve on the 13. But unlike the 3 yr old "explosive horse," he is unlikely to improve more than a little bit 1 pt or 2 at the most). But horses like this can string together a series of good races as long as there is a separation of at least 3 weeks after the new top. (Again, these are just probabilities and many horses don't follow these rules -- that's why the Raggies insist on getting high odds often. It doesn't always work out that way. In fact with increasing drug use horses are "pairing up tops" more -- runnning back to back high figs with little rest.
But there is some feeling that these horses -- when the eventually fall apart, and they will -- fall faster and further than other horses. That is it takes them more time to recuperate and they could be knocked out for many many months.

If there are any Raggies/T-Graph people here and I screwed this up, just shout. I know this stuff only from reading the book and listening to a few tapes and perusing their bulletin board once in a while.

I have found some of these concepts work just fine with other speed figures, althoug the Raggies will say they shouldn't because they are not as precise (The Sheets hand-time their races and account for things like different run-ups to the start of the race, the rails on the turf, wind, ground loss, weight, etc.)

Check out the Beyers of 3 yr olds -- see how often a horse who runs a small new lifetime top -- maybe 1-6 Beyers or so come back within a month or two to improve, sometimes substantilly.
On the other hand, I can confidently dismiss chances of many 3 yr olds who have not yet run back to their early tops. They are not likely to improve or match their best figures.