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AirNate012
04-05-2017, 04:23 PM
Big field for the SA Derby:

1. Term of Art - 12/1
2. Reach the World - 5/1
3. Battle of Midway - 5/1
4. Comma Sister - 50/1
5. So Conflated - 15/1
6. American Anthem - 5/1
7. Kimbear - 12/1
8. Gormley - 9/2
9. Iliad - 7/2
10. Milton Freewater - 30/1
11. Irish Freedom - 20/1
12. Midnight Pleasure - 30/1
13. Royal Mo - 10/1

PowerUpPaynter
04-05-2017, 05:04 PM
anyone know the post time. trying to make dinner reservations and dont want to miss it... true story, ha...

AirNate012
04-05-2017, 05:32 PM
anyone know the post time. trying to make dinner reservations and dont want to miss it... true story, ha...

I would imagine somewhere around 4:00 PST/7:00 EST

jocko699
04-05-2017, 06:30 PM
3:30pm PST or 6:30pm EST

boys at tosconova
04-06-2017, 02:36 AM
illiad should be favorite. it gets pretty cloudy after him.

even though i don't like gormley, based on the level of competition he should be better in here as well.

one horse that will prolly be overlooked is so conflated. his race in the gotham was awful. so awful it doesn't look right, and maybe you should put a line through it. if you look at previous races he stacks up pretty well...you know the song and dance reasoning...he beat law abiding..and law abiding beat battle of midway and battle of midway beat reach the world....etc, etc........horse should be long as well

Lemon Drop Husker
04-06-2017, 09:08 PM
Worst Santa Anita Derby field I've seen in a while.

Give me the :2: Reach the World @ 5/1 and I'll be happy.

Can anybody in the field even run a mile, much less 9 Furlongs?

boys at tosconova
04-06-2017, 09:36 PM
Worst Santa Anita Derby field I've seen in a while.

Give me the :2: Reach the World @ 5/1 and I'll be happy.

Can anybody in the field even run a mile, much less 9 Furlongs?

one can expect the 2 and 3 to take serious money. i'm gonna go out on a limb and say reach the world has better chance than american anthem with smith opting to drive.....lol..and midway was 4/5 vs iliad

AirNate012
04-06-2017, 09:41 PM
one can expect the 2 and 3 to take serious money. i'm gonna go out on a limb and say reach the world has better chance than american anthem with smith opting to drive.....lol..and midway was 4/5 vs iliad

Agreed. I don't see 5/1 holding on a Baffert/Smith combo who ran a fast closing 2nd last out....

boys at tosconova
04-07-2017, 02:12 AM
Agreed. I don't see 5/1 holding on a Baffert/Smith combo who ran a fast closing 2nd last out....

he could be favorite in the race. or co-favorite.

2389 are the figs....ez to visualize the 2 and 9 taking the most $$$

potential party crashers are the 7 11 13

bombs away w/ the rest of the five horses.

PowerUpPaynter
04-07-2017, 08:34 AM
im just gonna put a line thru the last American Anthem race. He slipped out of the gate and lost a shoe. He has more of an excuse for his flop than Irish War Cry and I'll take the 5-1 vs a weak field.

f2tornado
04-07-2017, 03:20 PM
Notes: First, a muddy track is possible and I have not capped that angle yet.

:1: Term of Art - I'm still waiting for a Tiznow to do well in the KY Derby. This one is a female family 1-x which has had strong KY Derby success. Also Buckpasser-x. Has had 8 starts to show more but these young horses can suddenly pop. Mild threat to hit the board.
:2: Reach the World - This one has 44 dosage points so could conceivably run around the world. Frizette in tail female a plus. Always respect Baffert and Smith combo at SA. Win contender.
:3: Battle of Midway - This one has a well stocked dosage line with 44 total points including two solid and one professional. Court Dress in tail female a plus. Another that could potentially keep going and going. While he won last out, he did give up ground to Reach the World at the end. His last work was a good one. Win contender.
:5: So Conflated - Not a fan of Storm Cat on top but does have Buckpasser-x.
:6: American Anthem - RAN sire line. Buckpasser-x. If you're willing to draw a line through last out then Sham figure enough to win here.
:8: Gormley - Malibu Moon same sire of Derby winner Orb. Female family 23-b has a knack of blowing up Derby tote board. If you can draw a line through last out then a repeat of Sham put him in exotics contention.
:9: Iliad - Nothing in the breeding is terribly eye catching but horse is consistent and repeat of last two put him in contention for a board hit or better.
:11: Irish Freedom - RAN sire line. Frizette in tail female. Baffert. Big step up here but I would not be shocked to see this one blow up some super tickets.
:12: Midnight Pleasure - RAN line but would be a heck of a reach.
:13: Royal Mo - I suspect 9F is the upper limit of Uncle Mo types. This one does have a solid dosage point otherwise uninspiring line. He would have to pull a Dortmund and wire this field which would not be easy from the 13 hole. Possible board hit on speed favoring track.

cj
04-07-2017, 05:05 PM
David Aragona's analysis of the SA Derby:

https://timeformusblog.com/2017/04/06/kentucky-derby-prep-analysis-bob-baffert-well-represented-in-a-wide-open-santa-anita-derby/

boys at tosconova
04-07-2017, 07:24 PM
im just gonna put a line thru the last American Anthem race. He slipped out of the gate and lost a shoe. He has more of an excuse for his flop than Irish War Cry and I'll take the 5-1 vs a weak field.


i have a hard time forgiving AA. smith opts to leave for ROW and we don't really know if that horse is better than several in here. those are some big red flags.

plainolebill
04-08-2017, 03:56 AM
The big shooters haven't put on much of a show in their most recent races, the best form is the two alw horses and the mdn winner. I think I'll put a few bucks on Midnight Pleasure, giving him some points for maturity puts him in the ballpark.

Kiss of death. Good luck everyone.

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 08:36 AM
The big shooters haven't put on much of a show in their most recent races, the best form is the two alw horses and the mdn winner. I think I'll put a few bucks on Midnight Pleasure, giving him some points for maturity puts him in the ballpark.

Kiss of death. Good luck everyone.

well,..2nd race off the layoff, and he did bang heads vs some good un's last year, w/o much to show for it.

seems pretty obv he'll be overlooked

http://www.war-stories.com/images/a_b52-bombs-away-01.gif

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 09:32 AM
i see them going around the track 8932 for the most part (unless the 6 or 13 pushes)

once as the turn for home and at the top of the stretch and to the finish. that's what i don't know...lol

seems like the 7 is everyone's longshot w/ the stretch out and some competitive races. the 4 will be ignored..blinkers made him a winner..or was it the turf..can't rule him out. the 5 has a couple of decent races as well. one of these horses along w/ the 1 should be closing while getting a ground saving trip.

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 09:40 AM
have to use the 239. i'll grudgingly toss the 8..maybe use a lil for 3rd

trying to figure out how to work the 1457 in w/ the above...lol...none of these will prolly win. so that makes it somewhat easy

jocko699
04-08-2017, 03:46 PM
#2 Reach the World is my play. My only hope is that he isn't a huge underlay.

GaryG
04-08-2017, 04:14 PM
I think Reach the World is set to break through and join the Derby party. Hoping that the low Beyer figures will help his odds. I will take him at 5-2 or better.

PaceAdvantage
04-08-2017, 08:11 PM
My line

:8: 2/1
:9: 7/2
:6: 6/1

PaceAdvantage
04-08-2017, 08:20 PM
My line

:8: 2/1
:9: 7/2
:6: 6/1:8: wins at 6-1...like I said in my value thread, easy game

PaceAdvantage
04-08-2017, 08:21 PM
And no way a horse out of this race wins the Kentucky Derby....this field looked awful...I can't believe my horse won

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 08:27 PM
And no way a horse out of this race wins the Kentucky Derby....this field looked awful...I can't believe my horse won


Very nice win PA.

And yes, nobody out of that field is doing anything in the KD. That was an ugly finish of horses that can't even get 9F with soft fractions.

098poi
04-08-2017, 08:28 PM
And no way a horse out of this race wins the Kentucky Derby....this field looked awful...I can't believe my horse won

I picked the :8: in the other live play thread. I was going to post the same thing. Coming down the stretch there was a bunch of tired horses lucky to make it to the finish line.

cj
04-08-2017, 08:30 PM
Very nice win PA.

And yes, nobody out of that field is doing anything in the KD. That was an ugly finish of horses that can't even get 9F with soft fractions.

Soft fractions? The went sub 23 early dueling three wide.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 08:37 PM
Soft fractions? The went sub 23 early dueling three wide.

Let me know your RED or BLUE numbers for those fractions...

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 08:55 PM
Soft fractions? The went sub 23 early dueling three wide.

R6 3YO Fillies ran :23.2, :47.1, 1:11.2, 1:36, and 1:42.2

R8 3YO Males ran: :22.66, :46.55, 1:10.92, 1:37.55, and 1:51.16

R5 Mile for older F/Ms: :22.2, :45.3, 1:10, 1:21.3, and 1:33.3.

Sorry, but I don't see it as taxing for Kentucky Derby contenders.

The final 3 furlongs were run at a ridiculous 40 seconds plus.

cj
04-08-2017, 09:00 PM
R6 3YO Fillies ran :23.2, :47.1, 1:11.2, 1:36, and 1:42.2

R8 3YO Males ran: :22.66, :46.55, 1:10.92, 1:37.55, and 1:51.16

R5 Mile for older F/Ms: :22.2, :45.3, 1:10, 1:21.3, and 1:33.3.

Sorry, but I don't see it as taxing for Kentucky Derby contenders.

The final 3 furlongs were run at a ridiculous 40 seconds plus.


Race 5 was on turf.

The filly that won the 6th was phenomenal and won by like a pole, and it was also at a shorter distance. I'll be surprised if the SA Derby doesn't have red fractions but I've been wrong before!

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 09:06 PM
Race 5 was on turf.

The filly that won the 6th was phenomenal and won by like a pole, and it was also at a shorter distance. I'll be surprised if the SA Derby doesn't have red fractions but I've been wrong before!

Dammit! Hoping you wouldn't catch that 5th. :)

I know it will have RED fractions. I'd maybe even wager a lefty on it.

f2tornado
04-08-2017, 09:53 PM
5th slowest SAD in history doesn't inspire much confidence.

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 10:10 PM
race was begging for a closer to win with the fast fractions. thing is the horses behind were so bad they couldn't keep up or make the distance, let alone close into an ideal pace.

gormley trained off the pace and it worked out for him. had a great trip and just got there in a very unremarkable, lucky trip race w/ his back class getting him home.

it's too bad reach the world raced wide in fast fractions . doesn't look like he'll be going to the derby

next

JustRalph
04-08-2017, 11:23 PM
They looked like a bunch of dogs down the lane....tongues hanging out.....

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 11:42 PM
They looked like a bunch of dogs down the lane....tongues hanging out.....

good news. comma sister just crossed the finish line and i'm happy to tell you is doing fine after that amazing performance.

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/09/16/1410865659331_wps_26_dmvidpics_2014_09_16pic2_.jpg

f2tornado
04-09-2017, 12:18 AM
I would have hit the super if I went one more deep or possibly if the 2 didn't get hung wider than the turn of a tractor-trailer. The race was set up for a closer. The only positive is my whim Future $3 exacta wager Always Dreaming over Battle of Midway is live at 558-1. Doubt it hits but one less combo to worry about in May. The last SA Derby in a 1:50+ time was ironically Came Home in 2002. Most SA Derby winners that end up wearing roses win the SA Derby in a sub 1:48 time.

PowerUpPaynter
04-13-2017, 02:59 PM
anyone else notice the BRIS numbers didnt come back nearly as weak as the DRF numbers for this race?

Robert Fischer
04-13-2017, 03:53 PM
Royal Mo ran well.

Andrick
04-13-2017, 04:00 PM
anyone else notice the BRIS numbers didnt come back nearly as weak as the DRF numbers for this race?

I saw that. The filly who won the SA Oaks must've got a 120 or something then. Well, not really.

boys at tosconova
04-18-2017, 02:22 AM
the only numbers i'm interested in is the race fractions. 46 and 110...and then the same horses that set them crawl home and lose zero ground in 151?

this is awful indication of the rest of the horses in the race. giving any of these horses credit might be a stretch.

as much as i want to like midway, and find a place for him as "a longshot include" i can't deny that these horses look effin slow.

if somebody could tell me otherwise, plz do. i really don't like to get hung up that much on times. so when i do say something regarding it means it bothers me..lol