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boys at tosconova
04-04-2017, 07:29 PM
program enclosed

discuss

Spalding No!
04-04-2017, 08:07 PM
Wild Shot wire-to-wire.

If Classic Empire truly is back to his best, he should have entered in this race.

boys at tosconova
04-04-2017, 08:24 PM
Wild Shot wire-to-wire.

If Classic Empire truly is back to his best, he should have entered in this race.


i was really upset that he didn't get 2nd last out. cost me a bunch of money. good news is that he'll be double digits, loses that ball and chain in albarado and should show early foot in a paceless race.

wouldn't be surprised to see the horse 13/15-1 even if he finishes 2nd the exacta should be a nice price

Spalding No!
04-04-2017, 08:39 PM
i was really upset that he didn't get 2nd last out. cost me a bunch of money. good news is that he'll be double digits, loses that ball and chain in albarado and should show early foot in a paceless race.

wouldn't be surprised to see the horse 13/15-1 even if he finishes 2nd the exacta should be a nice price
It's nice to see a historical stable like Calumet, now reinvigorated with a new owner with a lot of money, have a "revival" of sorts with so many marginal contenders with the potential of making into the Derby field this year.

Wild Shot, Hence, Patch, Sonneteer, and Term of Art.

The only problem is they all seem to be second-tier horses.

arw629
04-04-2017, 09:47 PM
I really like Tapwrit in this race and I firmly believe he is the best horse and not McCracken. I think they will be very close in the betting as to who goes favorite.

Andrick
04-04-2017, 10:31 PM
I like Tapwrit in this race as well, with the aforementioned Wild Shot hanging around to round out the exacta.

boys at tosconova
04-05-2017, 12:58 AM
1-it's your nickel

i don't even know where to begin with this horse. 4 different tracks and 3 different surfaces in four starts

ran a monster race in the battaglia (2nd off the layoff) where he disposed of en hanse, which came on the heels of a 4 month layoff where he only loss by a length to senior investment. who was an also ran in the louisiana derby. obv the horse has talent and they're making a derby run. unfortunately i'm not convinced he's a dirt horse, and/or classy enough vs these. will have to step up vs these. it's not just one horse that looks good in here. it's several he'll have to beat just to hit the board.

2-mccracken

undefeated colt runs the same big time race off the pace every time out against large fields. i don't know what to say. but i've never had the feeling that "this horse is the best" or "this horse should be the kderby fav"..or whatever kudos you want to say about him. yes he's noce horse but i really haven't been on his bandwagon. if you want to knit pick i guess you can say he'll have to up his game once again vs some good horses in here, and that he hasn't raced in 2 months. also, being a closer he could be compromised, but this is such a short field. seems hard to leave out but would not be shocked if he doesn't win at 6/5

3-j boys echo

i loved this horse in the gotham and he delivered. fact is i didn't think there would be that much of a speed dual and he would be sitting 4th just off of it from the 1 hole. even though a big race was expected he really got the perfect storm. obv he could go a couple different directions here, and possibly even show some speed. which i really think he will. could be perfectly situated in light fractions up front as well. thing is,...it looks like there are better horses than cloud computing and el areeb in here. and this time around he will likely be asked for more run early

4-tapwrit

coming off a big win taking big money in the tb derby which was preceded by a another nice race where he didn't really seem to try that hard finishing 2nd to mccracken off the 2 month layoff. the cat was really out of the bag after the tb derby and there's no reason whey you shouldn't see another big race.. pletcher might even have this one forwardly placed as well. could make mccracken's job even harder trying to catch a sharp horse that might be many lengths ahead of him in modest fractions.

5-wild shot

thought you would see a better race than you did in the tb derby. seemed like a perfect spot for a big run off of the heels of a multiple move race 1st off the bench in the sf davis. but the tb derby was a disappointing third. showed no speed at all and closed unimpressively for 3rd in a no try type race. distance might be the problem for the horse, and even more dirt to cover might make it worse for him. really not a fan of albarado and a jock switch seems good here, even though it's because robby opted for j boys. he does have some back speed to at least get involved more, or at the very least he might not be that far back. still..seems dicey in this tough spot.


6-irap.

what's to like? finished 2nd and was even money (mineithatbirdderby) vs 2nd place finisher conquest mo money in the sun derby where he ran a so so 4th......i guess being an abbreviated field means anything is possible, but this horse looks like an easy toss.



7-practical joke

horse is always there never being off the board in 5 lifetime starts. last in the FOY it looked like he was making a winning move, only for him to get caught from behind by gunnevera. seemed like the timing of the move was a little too quick, or the horse doesn't want to go that far. well,...it was his first race in 4 months so i'm not going to be that critical of a 2nd place finish. how can the horse not be last or 2nd to last early on here? very conflicted here, but it does seems like the horse prolly won't reach in this race. he;s going to have to show he's just flat out better out closing them all.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-06-2017, 09:17 PM
Best prep this weekend even though it is just 7 horses.

Biggest problem is that there will be ZERO pace. Write off Tapwrit in this one unless he is simply much the better.

:5: Wild Shot at a price could get a walk and the :6: Irap even becomes interesting.

I suspect McCracken will get involved earlier than normal, and I actually kind of like :7: Practical Joke if I can get him at 7/1 or better.

Otherwhise, :5: Wild Shot at 15/1 is playable. Need to see them on the track.

no breathalyzer
04-06-2017, 10:08 PM
The race should be called the McCracken stakes :)

boys at tosconova
04-07-2017, 01:59 AM
The race should be called the McCracken stakes :)


it looks like all systems go. he and tapwrit might be many lengths better than this field

boys at tosconova
04-07-2017, 07:11 AM
In the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), Wild Shot finished third, six lengths behind Tapwrit. In both Tampa races, Wild Shot sat off the pace, a tactic that is not expected to be employed Saturday.

He will be on the lead, Arnold said of Wild Shot, who will be ridden by Corey Lanerie. Im done piddling around trying to get him to go a mile and a quarter.

Mc990
04-07-2017, 08:01 AM
it looks like all systems go. he and tapwrit might be many lengths better than this field

Maybe. I don't think, but maybe. If you like McCraken in this spot, aren't you betting on him running a career best. He'll need it here. He looks like he could be a nice horse but his numbers are just decent as of now.

Highly unlikely that Wilkes will squeeze the lemon here. Don't need to. I expect a good effort but as the favorite he has the look of a big time underlay.

I'm a handicapper first and a fan a distant second so I'm obligated to take a discerning stance. Have to demand value.

PowerUpPaynter
04-07-2017, 08:41 AM
Practical Joke looks like he's filled out quite nice.

https://twitter.com/francesjkaron/status/849654497634910210


Thats a strong looking horses right there

Lemon Drop Husker
04-07-2017, 11:13 AM
Practical Joke looks like he's filled out quite nice.

https://twitter.com/francesjkaron/status/849654497634910210


Thats a strong looking horses right there

Agree. Damn that is a fine looking colt.

Thanks for the Pic! :ThmbUp:

JayTris07
04-07-2017, 11:49 AM
Practical Joke looks like he's filled out quite nice.

https://twitter.com/francesjkaron/status/849654497634910210


Thats a strong looking horses right there




Damn, he looks ready for war. Is he on the Barry Bonds diet?

Robert Fischer
04-07-2017, 12:34 PM
I don't like Mccrackin here. I think he'll run 3rd, maybe 2nd. You want this solid closer to win, Brian better skim the rail or something. He's not circling this slow pace, and nobody is getting out of gear trying to worry about Wild Shot.

Give me Tapwrit on top with a little Practical Joke sprinkled in. Strictly win and multi's here. No value in the exacta/tri if Mccrackin fills that spot.

Before Todd started popping off with everything, I thought Tapwrit was an interesting Derby exotics look. He's kind of a goofball until they turn for home, and then he's building momentum through the stretch.

Practical Joke has a chance here.
Some similarity to the hyped horse in NY Cloud Computing. Wasn't as good as Gunnevera, but ran well in the FOY. Better than Mccrackin.

PowerUpPaynter
04-07-2017, 02:31 PM
I don't like Mccrackin here. I think he'll run 3rd, maybe 2nd. You want this solid closer to win, Brian better skim the rail or something. He's not circling this slow pace, and nobody is getting out of gear trying to worry about Wild Shot.

Give me Tapwrit on top with a little Practical Joke sprinkled in. Strictly win and multi's here. No value in the exacta/tri if Mccrackin fills that spot.

Before Todd started popping off with everything, I thought Tapwrit was an interesting Derby exotics look. He's kind of a goofball until they turn for home, and then he's building momentum through the stretch.

Practical Joke has a chance here.
Some similarity to the hyped horse in NY Cloud Computing. Wasn't as good as Gunnevera, but ran well in the FOY. Better than Mccrackin.

Distance concerns remain with Practical Joke... but that really is my only concern. hes really filled out since we last saw him. Must of been hitting the weight room hard :lol:

letswastemoney
04-07-2017, 02:42 PM
I thought Wild Shot might be the right horse to backwheel. But I have some doubts whether he can go 9 furlongs and last long enough to hit the board.

cj
04-07-2017, 05:06 PM
David Aragona's analysis of the Blue Grass:

https://timeformusblog.com/2017/04/06/kentucky-derby-prep-analysis-an-opportunity-to-beat-mccraken-in-the-blue-grass/

Lemon Drop Husker
04-07-2017, 05:31 PM
David Aragona's analysis of the Blue Grass:

https://timeformusblog.com/2017/04/06/kentucky-derby-prep-analysis-an-opportunity-to-beat-mccraken-in-the-blue-grass/

Perfect.

:7: Practical Joke

boys at tosconova
04-07-2017, 07:33 PM
I thought Wild Shot might be the right horse to backwheel. But I have some doubts whether he can go 9 furlongs and last long enough to hit the board.

the horse didn't even try last race. now you have a trainer on record saying he's "done messing around" and will go to the front. lol

he shouldn't mess around. horse ran a great race in the sf davis and much better than honor and serve. then he doesn't try, trying to conserve horse for later in the tb derby and has even less run.

he still has to get the distance, but it least it seems like you should see his best. and i think is best is good enough to hit the board

boys at tosconova
04-07-2017, 07:37 PM
tapwrit didn't try that hard the 1st time he faced mccracken. i watched that video over and over and the pletcher camp didn't care if they won that race and he still ran huge. obv they let it out another notch in the tb derby and crushed, and i expect to see another big race. this horse is the one to beat imo.

rsetup
04-07-2017, 10:53 PM
From Aragona:

#7, PRACTICAL JOKE (7-2): Id be more willing to give him a pass for his Fountain of Youth effort in his first start off a four-month layoff if Chad Brown had not been raving about how well he was doing coming into that race. Its looking more and more likely that this horse just does not want to go two turns. In every single one of his races, hes displayed an eye-catching turn of foot, but hes had trouble sustaining that burst of speed as the distances have gotten longer. He appeared to hang in the late stages of the Champagne after appearing to have the race won, and he could barely edge out Three Rules at Gulfstream after looking like hed blow by that foe on the far turn.



Interesting point concerning the Champagne. And I'm puzzled as to what to make of it. I thought it was commonly known that PJ was herded pretty badly the late stages of the Champagne. He didn't hang; no horse goes by under those circumstances. But it can't be that Aragona doesn't know this? Factor in the poor start and they went 4-1-3-2 in the race and I thought the Champagne was a huge race for PJ.

As to the FOY, he could barely edge out TR for the place because he moved suddenly and prematurely, effectively collapsing the race and giving Gunnevera just about as good a setup as any horse can get.

PJ just needs a better timed move.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 12:13 AM
As to the FOY, he could barely edge out TR for the place because he moved suddenly and prematurely, effectively collapsing the race and giving Gunnevera just about as good a setup as any horse can get.

PJ just needs a better timed move.

PJ just needs a 2nd race as a 3YO. :ThmbUp:

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 01:10 AM
PJ just needs a 2nd race as a 3YO. :ThmbUp:


maybe. it only stands that he should be better. he raced w/ good horses last year. really can't rule out an improvement

but he's still going to be last and have to outclose boys, tapwrit and mccracken. not to mention pass a souped up wild shot unless he turns into three chimneys. how many do you realistically see him mowing down in a moderate pace go further than anyone thinks he can get?

sadly,..he could get 4th or 5th and it would still be a great race

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 01:27 AM
maybe. it only stands that he should be better. he raced w/ good horses last year. really can't rule out an improvement

but he's still going to be last and have to outclose boys, tapwrit and mccracken. not to mention pass a souped up wild shot unless he turns into three chimneys. how many do you realistically see him mowing down in a moderate pace go further than anyone thinks he can get?

sadly,..he could get 4th or 5th and it would still be a great race

OK, so JBoys improved by 15 lengths or so last out. Tapwrit by at least 20. McCracken has yet to see the best of any of these and I'm crazy in thinking Practical Joke in his 2nd start as a 3YO has a solid chance in actually getting better?

Cool. I'll be dumb money.

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 03:14 AM
OK, so JBoys improved by 15 lengths or so last out. Tapwrit by at least 20. McCracken has yet to see the best of any of these and I'm crazy in thinking Practical Joke in his 2nd start as a 3YO has a solid chance in actually getting better?

Cool. I'll be dumb money.

if you think he's going to win just tell me how he's going to do it?....sell me. why make stuff up about the other horses and apply this logic to the 7 while just being reactionary.

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 05:00 AM
OK, so JBoys improved by 15 lengths or so last out. Tapwrit by at least 20. McCracken has yet to see the best of any of these and I'm crazy in thinking Practical Joke in his 2nd start as a 3YO has a solid chance in actually getting better?

Cool. I'll be dumb money.

if you think he's going to win just tell me how he's going to do it?....sell me. why make stuff up about the other horses and apply this logic to the 7 while just being reactionary.


since you can't do it, or won't do it, or don't believe it yourself. i will do it for you.

here's a case for the joker. i don't think i can sell it, or believe it, because so many things need to happen in order for him to win imo.

let's say there's 5 horses in the race. which basically there is.

1- wild shot. wild shot will have to get tired and back up up being on the front end. he might do this because of the distance, or that the other horses are just better than him. i think people can see the possibility of this happening. this might actually happen even if he doesn't go fast.

2-j-boys...pretty sure j boys leaves for position here. was shocked he got away 4th last time out. how can the joker beat him? well, maybe he's a ny horse, only racing against them the last couple. maybe this means he's not as good. it's obv the competition wasn't that great. this is believable right? also,...his win was aided by a fast pace and set up when he was ready to run a huge one. yes he's a good horse, but this this field is strong and there's no shame in finishing 4th here. he can also bounce.

these first two statements you can sell. you can believe in. the next 2 or the ones which are harder especially when they all have to happen.

3-mccraken......how are you going to knock this horse? for not racing in almost 2 months? you want to say he hasn't beaten anybody and is overrated, going undefeated beating nobody is not worth that much. also,..2yr old form doesn't mean a lot. both joker and crack will be in the back. each will have a chance to beat each other to the wire. and if somehow the joker gets the jump on him, and is tighter he could finish ahead of him. it's possible. right. crap...you might want to be in back of him. last time he was in front of the competition gunnevera hit the gas and was by him.

4- tapwrit- how do you beat him? well...maybe he bounces off of that track record performance in the tb derby. how else? i can't even think of anything. do you want to say the fields weren't that strong? maybe tapwrit clips heels this race? that would help everybody except the other horse he does it with.


there you have it. you need wild shot to go backwards, j boys to be too cheap, mccracken to be short and tapwrit to bounce or be involved in an accident. the joker needs all of this to happen and run the biggest race of his life w/o examining reasons why he won't do it

that's what you have to deal with for the win. at crappy odds i might add. will you even get 5-1 on the joker.

Mc990
04-08-2017, 08:37 AM
since you can't do it, or won't do it, or don't believe it yourself. i will do it for you.

here's a case for the joker. i don't think i can sell it, or believe it, because so many things need to happen in order for him to win imo.

let's say there's 5 horses in the race. which basically there is.

1- wild shot. wild shot will have to get tired and back up up being on the front end. he might do this because of the distance, or that the other horses are just better than him. i think people can see the possibility of this happening. this might actually happen even if he doesn't go fast.

2-j-boys...pretty sure j boys leaves for position here. was shocked he got away 4th last time out. how can the joker beat him? well, maybe he's a ny horse, only racing against them the last couple. maybe this means he's not as good. it's obv the competition wasn't that great. this is believable right? also,...his win was aided by a fast pace and set up when he was ready to run a huge one. yes he's a good horse, but this this field is strong and there's no shame in finishing 4th here. he can also bounce.

these first two statements you can sell. you can believe in. the next 2 or the ones which are harder especially when they all have to happen.

3-mccraken......how are you going to knock this horse? for not racing in almost 2 months? you want to say he hasn't beaten anybody and is overrated, going undefeated beating nobody is not worth that much. also,..2yr old form doesn't mean a lot. both joker and crack will be in the back. each will have a chance to beat each other to the wire. and if somehow the joker gets the jump on him, and is tighter he could finish ahead of him. it's possible. right. crap...you might want to be in back of him. last time he was in front of the competition gunnevera hit the gas and was by him.

4- tapwrit- how do you beat him? well...maybe he bounces off of that track record performance in the tb derby. how else? i can't even think of anything. do you want to say the fields weren't that strong? maybe tapwrit clips heels this race? that would help everybody except the other horse he does it with.


there you have it. you need wild shot to go backwards, j boys to be too cheap, mccracken to be short and tapwrit to bounce or be involved in an accident. the joker needs all of this to happen and run the biggest race of his life w/o examining reasons why he won't do it

that's what you have to deal with for the win. at crappy odds i might add. will you even get 5-1 on the joker.


PJ comes in with the fastest Thoro-graph figure in this field... He's hardly an outsider who needs to improve to win. I prefer Tapwrit here but PJ is 2nd most likely winner in my mind. Only concern is the distance...

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 08:57 AM
PJ comes in with the fastest Thoro-graph figure in this field... He's hardly an outsider who needs to improve to win. I prefer Tapwrit here but PJ is 2nd most likely winner in my mind. Only concern is the distance...

his awesome record speaks for itself. it would be foolish to say he can't win. but there is plenty of doubt for a 1 or 2 finish with him.

crazy that a multiple g1 winner that may only muster 3rd/4th in this competitive field 2nd off the bench. that's a testament to the field, not a knock on the horse.

GaryG
04-08-2017, 10:37 AM
:5: WILD SHOT for me, betting him to win and place. Think he will stay the route with a front-running trip.

jay68802
04-08-2017, 01:11 PM
I like McCraken here but need to have 2-1 and will not get that.

J Boys Echo min odds 9-2

Irap should improve with distance and will have the odds to support lightly.

jocko699
04-08-2017, 03:44 PM
I am keying #7 Practical Joke.

ReplayRandall
04-08-2017, 07:26 PM
Blue Grass = Laughable joke, NO derby winner here.....

luisbe
04-08-2017, 07:28 PM
How is it possible that the final odd is 32-1 but the unofficial odd is 31-1?

CincyHorseplayer
04-08-2017, 07:32 PM
Blue Grass = Laughable joke, NO derby winner here.....

Amazing! I was a little suspicious of JBE but McCraken and Tapwrit I thought of pretty highly. Just wow!

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 07:35 PM
since you can't do it, or won't do it, or don't believe it yourself. i will do it for you.

here's a case for the joker. i don't think i can sell it, or believe it, because so many things need to happen in order for him to win imo.

let's say there's 5 horses in the race. which basically there is.

1- wild shot. wild shot will have to get tired and back up up being on the front end. he might do this because of the distance, or that the other horses are just better than him. i think people can see the possibility of this happening. this might actually happen even if he doesn't go fast.

2-j-boys...pretty sure j boys leaves for position here. was shocked he got away 4th last time out. how can the joker beat him? well, maybe he's a ny horse, only racing against them the last couple. maybe this means he's not as good. it's obv the competition wasn't that great. this is believable right? also,...his win was aided by a fast pace and set up when he was ready to run a huge one. yes he's a good horse, but this this field is strong and there's no shame in finishing 4th here. he can also bounce.

these first two statements you can sell. you can believe in. the next 2 or the ones which are harder especially when they all have to happen.

3-mccraken......how are you going to knock this horse? for not racing in almost 2 months? you want to say he hasn't beaten anybody and is overrated, going undefeated beating nobody is not worth that much. also,..2yr old form doesn't mean a lot. both joker and crack will be in the back. each will have a chance to beat each other to the wire. and if somehow the joker gets the jump on him, and is tighter he could finish ahead of him. it's possible. right. crap...you might want to be in back of him. last time he was in front of the competition gunnevera hit the gas and was by him.

4- tapwrit- how do you beat him? well...maybe he bounces off of that track record performance in the tb derby. how else? i can't even think of anything. do you want to say the fields weren't that strong? maybe tapwrit clips heels this race? that would help everybody except the other horse he does it with.


there you have it. you need wild shot to go backwards, j boys to be too cheap, mccracken to be short and tapwrit to bounce or be involved in an accident. the joker needs all of this to happen and run the biggest race of his life w/o examining reasons why he won't do it

that's what you have to deal with for the win. at crappy odds i might add. will you even get 5-1 on the joker.

He spanked the other 4 you mentioned. Just couldn't change leads and/or get to the :6:.

Anything else you would like to mention?

luisbe
04-08-2017, 07:50 PM
He spanked the other 4 you mentioned. Just couldn't change leads and/or get to the :6:.

Anything else you would like to mention?

The 6 ran 1/3 of the stretch without changing leads either.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 07:54 PM
The 6 ran 1/3 of the stretch without changing leads either.

:6: ran lights out. :7: needed to be better.

burnsy
04-08-2017, 08:13 PM
I'm always suspicious of Tampa Bay horses, its just a weirdo place......that being said. Freaking Irap played a Practical Joke on me..........thought he would go by but this horse hung a little again. :lol::bang: The other races have not gone my way either today.....need the Santa Anita Derby to get out.

Robert Fischer
04-08-2017, 08:18 PM
Practical joke ran well again.

Race as a hole was fairly low quality. Doug O'Neill was fortunate here.

Have to hope McCracken enters the derby and takes at least moderate amount of money

porchy44
04-08-2017, 09:20 PM
A testimony to the EARLY SPEED bias at KEENELAND today.

rsetup
04-08-2017, 09:32 PM
A testimony to the EARLY SPEED bias at KEENELAND today.

Strongly disagree.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 09:49 PM
Practical joke ran well again.

Race as a hole was fairly low quality. Doug O'Neill was fortunate here.

Have to hope McCracken enters the derby and takes at least moderate amount of money

Is McCraken in?

He was 15th in points coming into today. Irap and Battle of Midway passed him today.

Arkansas Derby has a number of horses that can pass him as well. One Liner, Classic Empire, Petrov, and Untrapped. McCraken connections have to be sweating a bit.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 09:50 PM
Strongly disagree.

Yep. It was a speed track that was tiring. All day.

rsetup
04-08-2017, 09:56 PM
Yep. It was a speed track that was tiring. All day.

No. The track was fair the entire day. Maybe the two distance stakes ran a bit less fair than the sprints but closers has a much of a chance as frontrunners. For an example of a speed favoring track, I invite you take a look at the results at AQU today. Now, that was a JOKE. The usual joke over there.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 10:00 PM
No. The track was fair the entire day. Maybe the two distance stakes ran a bit less fair than the sprints but closers has a much of a chance as frontrunners. For an example of a speed favoring track, I invite you take a look at the results at AQU today. Now, that was a JOKE. The usual joke over there.

Didn't say it was bad, or unfair, but nobody wired the field at any distance on the dirt.

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 10:08 PM
wow. what an insult to the racing community having this horse win.

30-1 was an underlay.

lol

file this race under never to be seen again

f2tornado
04-08-2017, 10:16 PM
Is McCraken in?

He was 15th in points coming into today. Irap and Battle of Midway passed him today.

Arkansas Derby has a number of horses that can pass him as well. One Liner, Classic Empire, Petrov, and Untrapped. McCraken connections have to be sweating a bit.

He has 40 points and probably earnings tiebreaker. He's in. I still prefer this one over anything out of CA and NY but am less inclined to use beyond my Future wagers. I at least wanted to see him come home faster.

porchy44
04-08-2017, 10:19 PM
wow. what an insult to the racing community having this horse win.

30-1 was an underlay.

lol

file this race under never to be seen again


Maiden Laoban secured the first win of his career in dramatic fashion, scoring a front-running victory in the $600,000, Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course.

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 10:20 PM
He has 40 points and probably earnings tiebreaker. He's in. I still prefer this one over anything out of CA and NY but am less inclined to use beyond my Future wagers. I at least wanted to see him come home faster.

the mccraken camp was already making excuses why he wouldn't win this race before it even ran. just stopping short of saying they wouldn't be wound up for top effort. that reason can be used for optimism if you're in this horses corner

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 10:21 PM
Maiden Laoban secured the first win of his career in dramatic fashion, scoring a front-running victory in the $600,000, Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course.

and what exactly is your point?

porchy44
04-08-2017, 10:24 PM
and what exactly is your point?

Similarities between that race and the Bluegrass today.

f2tornado
04-08-2017, 10:36 PM
the mccraken camp was already making excuses why he wouldn't win this race before it even ran. just stopping short of saying they wouldn't be wound up for top effort. that reason can be used for optimism if you're in this horses corner

Certainly. Further, the horses closed much stronger in the BG than the other preps on the day. The final 3/8th was in about 38 flat for the top three which bests the roughly 39 flat in the Wood and 40 at SA. The KY Derby winner tends to close a couple tenths faster than 38 in final prep. I'm starting to really like my Future exacta of Always Dreaming over the All Others option.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 10:57 PM
wow. what an insult to the racing community having this horse win.

30-1 was an underlay.

lol

file this race under never to be seen again

Shackleford was 80/1 and nearly won the Florida Derby in 2011.

Finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby and then won the Preakness.

Certainly he was a shame to the racing community, right?

Let the stories be told among these 3YOs before we retire them to shame.

boys at tosconova
04-09-2017, 07:43 AM
Ian Wilkes, trainer of McCraken, said he was very satisfied with the effort extended by his stable star. The colt was the lukewarm favorite in the fourth and final Derby futures pool held March 31-April 2.

Whats wrong? said Wilkes. I got the monkey off my back. The horse never quit today. He faced adversity and the race toughened him up a little. He came back blowing today. Now weve got a good race under him. He showed character and he showed fight, which is what we wanted to see.

lol.....good to know they got a race under him.

i'll have to watch the replay more times but i really wonder how much tapwrit and j boys tried as well already punching their ticket. tapwrit was beaten 11L by this horse.....lol @ all the sandbagging in a million dollar race.

CincyHorseplayer
04-09-2017, 10:28 AM
Certainly. Further, the horses closed much stronger in the BG than the other preps on the day. The final 3/8th was in about 38 flat for the top three which bests the roughly 39 flat in the Wood and 40 at SA. The KY Derby winner tends to close a couple tenths faster than 38 in final prep. I'm starting to really like my Future exacta of Always Dreaming over the All Others option.

Looking at the charts this morning tis is where I was going. Those come home times are a hoot! I'm even liking the Sunland Derby better than even these 3 races. Irap wining even flatters Hence.

VigorsTheGrey
04-09-2017, 10:56 AM
Ian Wilkes, trainer of McCraken, said he was very satisfied with the effort extended by his stable star. The colt was the lukewarm favorite in the fourth and final Derby futures pool held March 31-April 2.

Whats wrong? said Wilkes. I got the monkey off my back. The horse never quit today. He faced adversity and the race toughened him up a little. He came back blowing today. Now weve got a good race under him. He showed character and he showed fight, which is what we wanted to see.

lol.....good to know they got a race under him.

i'll have to watch the replay more times but i really wonder how much tapwrit and j boys tried as well already punching their ticket. tapwrit was beaten 11L by this horse.....lol @ all the sandbagging in a million dollar race.

I wonder how true it is that trainers intentionally sandbag in one race prepping for another down the road...? I know this is commonly done...but isn't that unfair to the bettors...? That is like a jockey that stiffs a mount isn't it...?

f2tornado
04-09-2017, 11:14 AM
I wonder how true it is that trainers intentionally sandbag in one race prepping for another down the road...? I know this is commonly done...but isn't that unfair to the bettors...? That is like a jockey that stiffs a mount isn't it...?

I'm skeptical a trainer would shrug off a $750k G2 stakes before the gate opens. Perhaps the rider is instructed to let it go if the pace is unexpected. I kind of wonder if that is what happened with Gunnevera in Florida.

PaceAdvantage
04-09-2017, 11:59 AM
30-1 was an underlay.No it wasn't...it was a HUGE overlay actually...what did you think of the Carter winner? That one I actually posted before the race...unfortunately, I didn't have time to post the Bluegrass, and didn't get to bet him, but I had the winner as 5-1 on my line...HUGE overlay

rsetup
04-09-2017, 01:12 PM
No headon replay for the Blue Grass?

Raider
04-09-2017, 07:35 PM
I'm skeptical a trainer would shrug off a $750k G2 stakes before the gate opens. Perhaps the rider is instructed to let it go if the pace is unexpected. I kind of wonder if that is what happened with Gunnevera in Florida.


I think your right.

What is more important, winning the race for the money, or getting into the derby? If a horse is already a lock to get in to the derby, wins in the last prep, but gets hurt, no derby. Doubt if the owner would be as happy as one who's horse lost the last prep, but was sitting in an owners box on derby day.

arw629
04-09-2017, 09:03 PM
I think your right.

What is more important, winning the race for the money, or getting into the derby? If a horse is already a lock to get in to the derby, wins in the last prep, but gets hurt, no derby. Doubt if the owner would be as happy as one who's horse lost the last prep, but was sitting in an owners box on derby day.

I can't believe some of the posters on here think that these trainers don't have their horses cranked for these 7 figure purse races that you all call "preps"....you better believe these trainers are trying to win these races

PowerUpPaynter
04-09-2017, 09:50 PM
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Dew/Someone_is_going_to_win_the_Kentucky_Derby_123



little something about Tapwrit, like Irish War cry proved its possible to bounce back.

f2tornado
04-09-2017, 10:11 PM
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Dew/Someone_is_going_to_win_the_Kentucky_Derby_123

little something about Tapwrit, like Irish War cry proved its possible to bounce back.

Not quite the same comparison there. Thunder Gulch came home very fast in the Blue Grass. The old man and I came home with money that year. It was a logical play with red hot trainer D Lukas and Gary Stevens piloting. Tapwrit might still be in the clubhouse turn. Irish won a paceless Wood. I like him but not overly excited. Now, Gunnevera is the better comparison. He finished fast like Thunder Gulch. JC is due to pilot a Derby winner. Wishing I would have boxed him with the all others button as well but suspect I'll get better odds Derby day if I play him.

boys at tosconova
04-09-2017, 10:47 PM
I think your right.

What is more important, winning the race for the money, or getting into the derby? If a horse is already a lock to get in to the derby, wins in the last prep, but gets hurt, no derby. Doubt if the owner would be as happy as one who's horse lost the last prep, but was sitting in an owners box on derby day.

I wonder how true it is that trainers intentionally sandbag in one race prepping for another down the road...? I know this is commonly done...but isn't that unfair to the bettors...? That is like a jockey that stiffs a mount isn't it...?

I'm skeptical a trainer would shrug off a $750k G2 stakes before the gate opens. Perhaps the rider is instructed to let it go if the pace is unexpected. I kind of wonder if that is what happened with Gunnevera in Florida.

I can't believe some of the posters on here think that these trainers don't have their horses cranked for these 7 figure purse races that you all call "preps"....you better believe these trainers are trying to win these races


no,..they're not. the mccaken camp told you everything you needed to know before the race. it was just a question on if you were listening to what he was saying. he was already making excuses why he wouldn't win and the main job to was to work to the KD. the mere expression of doubt should have told you something before the friggin race.

the BG was a strange race in the sense that tapwrit and j boys have already qualified for the derby and put forth big efforts last out in the process. not many horses have spots locked up and quite a few usually do so in these last few 1mil preps. on paper the race looked brutal. really,...there is no point of pushing your your horse hard just in order to finish ITM. especially since the purse is win heavy as well.

tapwrits effort is highly questionable.. it was bad enough that he didn't even try sf davis, this is worse. he was pulled back at the start to last and raced wide. losing to irap by 11L. really...11L....gtfo. in his last he broke the track record at TB and could have gone even faster than he did.

never underestimate what a trainer does or his reasons. they only answer to owners, not anyone else. and most of the time the owner still defaults to the trainer. last year destin won the TB and decided not to run another race for fear of a bounce. he finished 6th in the derby and almost won the belmont. i'm pretty sure tapwrit beat his track record.

do i think they stiffed him. yes i do,,,,they already did it once finishing 2nd and the BG meant nothing in the big picture of the horses future. of course you can disguise it however you want to, w/o saying stiffed. it was evident last year that these 1 milly purses aren't as important as you might think, as destin didn't even race in any one them. sure they would take a win if it presented itself in an easy way, but you don't beat the crap out of your horse to win it or even finish 2nd

boys at tosconova
04-09-2017, 11:30 PM
i have a story to tell you. my family use to own standardbred horses. one horse we had in the early 80's held the track record at monticello for 2yr geldings. the horse made around 50k in around only 10/15 starts placing in an 90k nyss. decent money in 1981

when his 3yr campaign came around he wasn't as good and crushing the ny circuit nw4 for 3yr olds was hard for him.

i'll never forget after racing at roosevelt a couple of time w/ buddy gilmour driving, he said, fix this, this,this as he jumped off the horse. he jumped on him again the next start, and again after another so so race he said to fix a couple of things again..


in his next race gilmour came over to grandstand/clubhouse before the races started and flat out told us to our faces that we're going to be good tonight. i shit you not. those were his exact words. i was a young kid but i lol'ed at this as our horse was worse than the previous year and couldn't even seem to win in 201 which is what the winners were going at the time. there was a horse in this race that finished 2nd/3rd in the 100k provincial cup in canada. the horse had a 159.1 on the program on a half mile not to mention a couple other NY horses running pretty fast tuning up for stakes races


long story sort, they bet our horse #6 down to 7-2 when he should have been higher and he went wire to wire in 203.1. (didn't have anything on the program that would suggest wire to wire) the provincial horse #4 had a ton of speed didn't even leave the gate and the 2nd choice didn't try either. both were off the board. the next week, the same canadian horse that didn't try went wire to wire in 200.

if you don't know who buddy gilmour is just google his name. he's a HOF harness driver that has had involvement in organized crime, and i believe one time was locked in a trunk of car because one of his schemes didn't play out like it was suppose to.

PowerUpPaynter
04-10-2017, 09:01 AM
another thing about Tapwrit too - if Todd Pletcher thought this wasn't an important race wouldnt he have gone to the Wood instead of Keenland where Battalion Runner needed to perform well to get into the derby?

PowerUpPaynter
04-10-2017, 08:28 PM
If Irish War Cry tanked and bounced back, why can't McCraken and Tapwrit? Think on it...

letswastemoney
04-10-2017, 08:40 PM
Tapwrit has never run a super fast race on TimeformUS. He looked explosive in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I question the field quality.

It's possible a lot of people just overrated him.

CincyHorseplayer
04-10-2017, 08:56 PM
If Irish War Cry tanked and bounced back, why can't McCraken and Tapwrit? Think on it...

I'll buy it for Tapwrit. He had 2 consecutively faster races this year after a 2 mo layoff, came back in 4 weeks and ran a dud. McCracken ran a top off a layoff then took 2 months off and ran a dud. I had him a cut below IWC and Tapwrit already. He will have to beat me because I'm not buying it. IWC Ran 2 big races within 5 weeks of each other including a big top in the Holy Bull in his route and stakes debut. Screaming regression! I don't see any of the 3 similar and subject to generic comparisons. Just my 2 cents though and I know I ain't gospel!

Spalding No!
04-10-2017, 11:18 PM
If Irish War Cry tanked and bounced back, why can't McCraken and Tapwrit? Think on it...

Tapwrit has never run a super fast race on TimeformUS. He looked explosive in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I question the field quality.

It's possible a lot of people just overrated him.

McCarken can bounce back because he ran like a short horse. He made a good move to challenge then hung the last part. Not unexpected considering the headlines earlier this year when he was injured and missed an important start. However, obviously the physical issues are still a concern.

Tapwrit, on the other hand, has no real excuses. He was the quintessential "champion of the gallop out" when finally finding his best stride in the Sam Davis (when the race was already over). It is precisely because McCraken was injured that Tapwrit was even able to ascend to the top ten of Derby contenders. He has never looked like anything other than a plodder. If one wanted to make an excuse, the Blue Grass had a softer pace than the Tampa Bay Derby and so perhaps Tapwrit can make his presence felt at CD if the pace scenario proves to be contentious.

ReplayRandall
04-11-2017, 12:17 AM
McCarken can bounce back because he ran like a short horse. He made a good move to challenge then hung the last part. Not unexpected considering the headlines earlier this year when he was injured and missed an important start. However, obviously the physical issues are still a concern.

Tapwrit, on the other hand, has no real excuses. He was the quintessential "champion of the gallop out" when finally finding his best stride in the Sam Davis (when the race was already over). It is precisely because McCraken was injured that Tapwrit was even able to ascend to the top ten of Derby contenders. He has never looked like anything other than a plodder. If one wanted to make an excuse, the Blue Grass had a softer pace than the Tampa Bay Derby and so perhaps Tapwrit can make his presence felt at CD if the pace scenario proves to be contentious.
Remember the Juicy Fruit commercial, "Stretch your coffee break, top it off with Juicy Fruit gum"? Well, that's what McCraken and Tapwrit are, a real S-T-R-E-T-C-H for KD win possibilities...:ThmbDown:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JiZbbdeeEUY/Ux96qJ-CHtI/AAAAAAAAAFc/i-4Xnh1IpVU/s1600/Juicy+Fruit.jpg

boys at tosconova
04-11-2017, 12:56 AM
race summary note:

TAPWRIT was unprepared at the start and raced back early on from the three path, fanned into the eight path in the far turn and improved position down the lane


https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=http%3A%2F%2F24.media.tumblr.com%2F517353a 49f53310f6131660d6d7fed0f%2Ftumblr_mtf7r1d55z1r0wq rdo1_400.gif&key=UMg4uk7rBfC828PVOzc1Iw

PowerUpPaynter
04-11-2017, 07:59 AM
Dont it seem like the horses that race at Tampa never hold form?

no breathalyzer
04-11-2017, 09:05 AM
Can't wait to get them juicy odds on McCraken in the Derby