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boys at tosconova
04-03-2017, 07:25 AM
discuss

looks like cloud computing and battalion runner will be the favorites. and rightfully so.

i guess irish war cry and mo tom will be there as well..wonder how many they'll put into the gate?.

i love discussing the wood as none of these horses have run a lick in the derby in many years. despite how good they've looked. the wood curse is alive, and auto tossing them all has been the right move. obv previous results aren't indicative of future ones, but they've been as bad as the uae horses for what seems like a long time.

you could've had always dreamin@ 40/50-1 the day before the race and you can prolly get 30-1+ on both of these wood favorites if you look hard enough or know somebody in vegas...if that turns u on....

PowerUpPaynter
04-03-2017, 12:14 PM
Frosted was an OK horse from the wood and hit the board. Also remember I Want Revenge and Eskenderaya where 2 good looking horses from the Wood that did not make the derby due to injury.

I like Cloud Computing here but id like him a lot more if he is teh 3rd choice behind Irish War Cry and Battalion Runner. Irish War Cry could take some local fan money being from Jersey and all...

Spalding No!
04-03-2017, 01:06 PM
i love discussing the wood as none of these horses have run a lick in the derby in many years. despite how good they've looked. the wood curse is alive, and auto tossing them all has been the right move. obv previous results aren't indicative of future ones, but they've been as bad as the uae horses for what seems like a long time.
Reasons for the weak Wood Memorial impact:

1) Number of starters

Here are the starters from the 5 main prep races since 2000:

Blue Grass - 65
Arkansas Derby - 49
Santa Anita Derby - 43
Wood Memorial - 37
Florida Derby - 31

2) Todd Pletcher

Todd Pletcher has won 4 of the last 7 Wood Memorials. Pletcher's Kentucky Derby record is something like 1 for 49. That doesn't count the numerous high profile candidates that were forced to miss the KY Derby due to injury or illness. You can pretty much throw out any of his Derby horses that make it to the race at least in the top spot.

3) Injuries to winners

In this century, there has been several Wood winners who went down with injuries prior to the KY Derby. Buddha, I Want Revenge, Eskendereya, and Toby's Corner. Not to suggest they would have won the Derby, but 2yo champs War Pass and Uncle Mo as well as El Kabeir were also knocked off just before the KY Derby.

4) Florida Derby date change

The rescheduling of the FL Derby has clearly impacted the Wood. In fact, this would been the main justification for downgrading the Wood to a Grade 2. Historically, most of the top Wood horses wintered in Florida and prepped there before a final tuneup for the KY Derby in the Wood. With the FL Derby positioned more closely to the big race, there is little reason for a trainer to ship to NY to run, other than to duck a top rival or try and earn points with a second tier or late blooming type.

That said, the Wood has had an interesting impact on the KY Derby this century. Between 2000-2003, it was responsible for 2 and nearly 3 KY exactas. Fusaichi Pegasus and Aptitude were 1-2 in 2000 and Funny Cide and Empire Maker were 1-2 in 2003. In 2001, Congaree was just tagged out of second place by Invisible Ink behind winner Monarchos.

More recently, since 2006 (11 Derbys), the Wood Memorial has produced the 4th place finisher 5 times (Jazil, Tale of Ekati, Normandy Invasion, Wicked Strong, Frosted). Superfecta players should take note.

f2tornado
04-03-2017, 03:33 PM
I have not scoured the full potential field yet but it is assumed Irish War Cry, Battalion Runner, and Cloud Computing will run. All three are MrP/RAN on top and have Buckpasser-x. All three fit the dosage profile. All three have shown enough speed at 8.5 to win here. I do wonder how good these are when the trainers opt for the G2 Wood over several G1 options (Florida, Ark, SA). The Blue Grass was dumped to a G2 as well. You have to go back to the early part of the previous decade but Funny Cide, Monarchos, and Fusaichi Pegasus ran fast final fractions in the Wood then took the Roses. Empire Maker beat Funny Cide in the Wood and they reversed positions in the Derby making up a nice exacta.

MNslappy
04-03-2017, 08:27 PM
If you believe the Timeform numbers (which I do), the NY preps up to this point have seen some of the highest figs put up. The Wood as a non-factor in the Derby can't continue forever. Sunland and Turfway have produced recent winners, Aqueduct has to come up with one eventually, right?

boys at tosconova
04-03-2017, 10:22 PM
That said, the Wood has had an interesting impact on the KY Derby this century. Between 2000-2003, it was responsible for 2 and nearly 3 KY exactas. Fusaichi Pegasus and Aptitude were 1-2 in 2000 and Funny Cide and Empire Maker were 1-2 in 2003. In 2001, Congaree was just tagged out of second place by Invisible Ink behind winner Monarchos.


wut a bevy of info. top, top.

but what sticks out the most is that no wood horse has finished 2nd or better since 2003, and your explanation almost makes it sound like 14 yrs isn't a long time.

f2tornado
04-03-2017, 10:45 PM
The Blue Grass has been arguably more useless than the Wood. Only one Derby winner in Street Sense (2007) between Thunder Gulch (1995) and now. The old fake dirt configuration probably didn't help matters. This is a neat prep race score card (https://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Prep%20Races,%20Derby%20Winners%20(2015).pdf). Looks like it hasn't been updated in a couple years but gives you an idea the value of various preps. Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby have been superior in recent decades.

Spalding No!
04-03-2017, 11:07 PM
but what sticks out the most is that no wood horse has finished 2nd or better since 2003, and your explanation almost makes it sound like 14 yrs isn't a long time.
As far as what has happened in those 14 years, i.e. Derby-inept Pletcher dominating recent runnings and a multitude of unfortunate injuries, I think there are some viable excuses for the lack of Wood impact on the KY Derby.

However, as far as the future is concerned, it does not look rosy, specifically because of the rescheduling of the Florida Derby. That has essentially knocked the Wood Memorial off its historical perch.

Unless barns like McLaughlin or Brown or Mott, none of whom have made much of a dent in the Triple Crown thus far, are willing to leave their top 3yos in NY (McLaughlin left Travers winner Alpha a few years back) for the winter, I wouldn't anticipate that the race will continue to serve as a consistent source of Derby timber.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-03-2017, 11:20 PM
I like the Wood field this year. Solid field.

The Blue Grass is a really really good field. Great to see these preps get solid action again. Fully expecting the KD winner coming from one of these 2 fields.

The Santa Anita Derby looks like the weakest field of the weekend. Pretty damn interesting.

boys at tosconova
04-04-2017, 12:31 AM
The Wood as a non-factor in the Derby can't continue forever. Sunland and Turfway have produced recent winners, Aqueduct has to come up with one eventually, right?

my friend once flipped a coin and 15 times in a row it came up heads.

after the 15th time i was convinced that this streak couldn't continue so i wagered him 100 bucks that it was going to tails. it was heads again.

i thought that the law of averages was on my side that if i did lose this hundo i would double up and make it back. thing is it came up heads 4 more times and i went busto.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-04-2017, 12:34 AM
my friend once flipped a coin and 15 times in a row it came up heads.

after the 15th time i was convinced that this streak couldn't continue so i wagered him 100 bucks that it was going to tails. it was heads again.

i thought that the law of averages was on my side that if i did lose this hundo i would double up and make it back. thing is it came up heads 4 more times and i went busto.

You could have flipped coins for the rest of your life to come up with Mine That Bird.

boys at tosconova
04-04-2017, 12:47 AM
You could have flipped coins for the rest of your life to come up with Mine That Bird.

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/mjl.gif

you want to see something really funny. watch the japan world cup part I. there are a few more episodes so watch away and lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzzFOX_iDew

porchy44
04-04-2017, 07:19 PM
my friend once flipped a coin and 15 times in a row it came up heads.

after the 15th time i was convinced that this streak couldn't continue so i wagered him 100 bucks that it was going to tails. it was heads again.

i thought that the law of averages was on my side that if i did lose this hundo i would double up and make it back. thing is it came up heads 4 more times and i went busto.

The "Monte Carlo Fallacy". The mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future.

PowerUpPaynter
04-04-2017, 08:10 PM
the wood does produce the tail end of the derby super a lot however, weird how that works out.... 3 of the last 4.

keep in mind I want Revenge and Eskendereya got hurt and would of been 2 good horses

the Bluegrass havent really produced many derby winners this century either, probably less than the wood. but this year both those 2 races are actually pretty decent. Louisiana Derby was pathetic, Santa Anita derby looks weak too.

PowerUpPaynter
04-04-2017, 08:52 PM
Also as far as the Wood goes and really Irish War Cry, I hope they don't try to get him to sit off the pace again. He clearly does not want to do that. Let him run his race and see what happens and if he gets to the derby again let him try to take them around if thats what he wants to do. Just let him run his race. Hell, War Emblem did it and clearly he did not enjoy trying to rate.



LET HIM RUN!!!

boys at tosconova
04-06-2017, 02:50 AM
1. Glennrichment, Rudy Rodriguez, Kendrick Carmouche, 15-1

2. Mo Town, Tony Dutrow, Javier Castellano, 6-1

3. Battalion Runner, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 2-1

4. Bonus Points, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 20-1

5. True Timber, Kiaran McLaughlin, Paco Lopez, 12-1

6. Stretch’s Stone, Bruce Levine, Manny Franco, 15-1

7. Cloud Computing, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, 5-2

8. Irish War Cry, Graham Motion, Rajiv Maragh, 7-2

doesn't look like cloud computing would be advised to leaving in here. seems like there will be plenty of cheap speed up front. i don't know what that does to his chances, but if he doesn't leave for position he could be last.

seems like it's pletcher's race was again. all these horses seem a notch below. that is if war cry completely shit it.

f2tornado
04-06-2017, 02:55 PM
Notes:
:1: Glennrichment - RAN sire line, Buckpasser-x. Massive step up in class coming off maiden score. Modest improvement in figures could yield yield a board hit if others falter.
:2: Mo Town - Hit the distance on the surface in Remsen. A repeat of that performance would easily put him in contention for the win. Bill and Coo in tail female, the same tail of Secretariat. Nothing wrong with JC piloting.
:3:Battalion Runner - RAN top line, Buckpasser-x. Dosage profile including two professional points suggests distance is no problem. Pletcher factor alone will make this one over-bet. When I was comparing him to Always Dreaming I thought BR looked better on paper. Will need to pick up the middle pace to avoid being too far back. Had same concerns with Dreaming which ended up being non-factor. JV a winning pilot.
:4: Bonus Points - Another Pletcher. This one has some fancy inbreeding including Buckpasser and also contains Buckpasser-x. Has not yet shown he can keep up with stronger competition but not humiliated either. These 3 year olds can sometimes pop suddenly but this would be a big pop. Hitting bottom of super would not be a shock.
:5: True Timber - Another Buckpasser-x. Lots of those this year. This one lost ground his last two at shorter distances so I cannot expect him to suddenly gain it. A repeat of Withers run makes a mild threat to hit the board if it's a speed favoring day.
:6: Stretches Stone - I usually think sprinter when I see City Zip in the sire line. This is further supported by the 7.00 DI. I simply cannot use at 9F. Perhaps a repeat of last out could hold for bottom of super but I doubt it with this class.
:7: Cloud Computing - RAN plus Buckpasser-x. Gets a better pilot this time. Gotham repeat very much puts him in contention for the win.
:8: Irish War Cry - RAN plus Buckpasser-x (sound familar yet?). If you're willing to draw a line through the FOY which reminded me of Frosted practically stopping then a possible wire job at reasonable odds.

Tough race to wager. I'll certainly use the :3:&:7: on top of whatever I play.

Robert Fischer
04-06-2017, 05:57 PM
Mo Town appears to be the :ThmbUp:best value, but I'm not eager to bet.

Cloud Computing is almost certain to run his win-contending race, although it looks like he may go off as the post-time favorite :rolleyes:, and this is a parimutuel game. If he's really 5/2, it could be as simple as a win bet.

Irish War Cry is a horse that I wanted to bet. Thought he may be good, and he had to urge from the gate last time into a hot pace @ GP. However, he could end up with a wide trip into fast pace. Lot of risk here. Lot of bad trade-offs. :coffee:

Battalion Runner appears to have the :ThmbDown:worst value, but I'm not eager to bet-against.


so maybe you key Mo Town top/bottom of those 3?... I don't know.


:rip: underneath: True Timber may have actually been at a peak level last race, for all we know. Now his value is at an all-time high as well. Think we'll see some fear/respect of the pace in the heart of KMAC, and instructions to PACO... Think we'll see his style revert back to the stalking Jerome and MDN races, after trading pace-punches last couple. A lot of models are pointing to this guy as a key 3rd/4th... who knows

Stretch's Stone is in over his head. If he sucks up, he can try to be a poor-man's True Timber, letting others do the work and trying to get 3rd/4th. A bit of a 'stretch'.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-06-2017, 09:05 PM
Give me Irish War Cry at 9/2 or better.

:3: Battalion Runner looks to be extremely overrated to me.

I can be an easy :5::7::8: Ex and Tri Box and call it good.

boys at tosconova
04-06-2017, 09:24 PM
Stretch's Stone is in over his head. If he sucks up, he can try to be a poor-man's True Timber, letting others do the work and trying to get 3rd/4th. A bit of a 'stretch'.

nothing says comedy like being compared to true timber, and then saying it's a stretch.

you're almost forced to use the 8 after the 37373737373 because of lack of alternatives..but for triples the wheel is your friend.

now if you can ever get the 3 or 7 to run third and have one of the turds run second, well, then you'll have a 100 triple.. but it still doesn't sound nice does it?........ lol

Robert Fischer
04-06-2017, 09:55 PM
nothing says comedy like being compared to true timber, and then saying it's a stretch.

you're almost forced to use the 8 after the 37373737373 because of lack of alternatives..but for triples the wheel is your friend.

now if you can ever get the 3 or 7 to run third and have one of the turds run second, well, then you'll have a 100 triple.. but it still doesn't sound nice does it?........ lol

game-planning something like
tri 2/378/5 =$1.50
tri 378/2/5 =$1.50
super 2/378/3678/5 =$0.90
super 378/2/3678/5 =$0.90
super 378/378/2/5 =$0.60
$5.40

Guessing that True Timber will be allowed to stalk just a bit, and that Mo Town will work a good trip. If I'm wrong I lose $5.40. If I'm right, I win bragging rights and a few bucks.

boys at tosconova
04-07-2017, 01:55 AM
game-planning something like
tri 2/378/5 =$1.50
tri 378/2/5 =$1.50
super 2/378/3678/5 =$0.90
super 378/2/3678/5 =$0.90
super 378/378/2/5 =$0.60
$5.40

Guessing that True Timber will be allowed to stalk just a bit, and that Mo Town will work a good trip. If I'm wrong I lose $5.40. If I'm right, I win bragging rights and a few bucks.

seems like a lot of excitement for not a lot of money being bet.

nothing wrong with that or betting against a $40 triple

i might just make a big win bet

Robert Fischer
04-07-2017, 12:45 PM
more I look at this , the better Battalion Runner looks.

I actually like him a little better than Cloud Computing.
Players are going out of their way to explain Cloud Computing.
His inexperience, how close he was to the pace, how he didn't quit when a rival blew past him in the Gotham, etc.. etc...
Great, if he's not the co-favorite.
He could certainly win. He could also finish another flat second, after showing a lot of good qualities.

Mo Town and Irish War Cry feel like reaches.

I could always hammer Battalion Runner @ 2-1, thinking he's slightly more likely than Cloud Computing, but I like my 2-1's to be less contested.

PASS. No bet. Going to watch and root for Cloud Computing to win.
If Cloud Computing wins, half of New York will think they geniuses and he'll take a ton of money in the Derby.

PowerUpPaynter
04-07-2017, 02:28 PM
more I look at this , the better Battalion Runner looks.

I actually like him a little better than Cloud Computing.
Players are going out of their way to explain Cloud Computing.
His inexperience, how close he was to the pace, how he didn't quit when a rival blew past him in the Gotham, etc.. etc...
Great, if he's not the co-favorite.
He could certainly win. He could also finish another flat second, after showing a lot of good qualities.

Mo Town and Irish War Cry feel like reaches.

I could always hammer Battalion Runner @ 2-1, thinking he's slightly more likely than Cloud Computing, but I like my 2-1's to be less contested.

PASS. No bet. Going to watch and root for Cloud Computing to win.
If Cloud Computing wins, half of New York will think they geniuses and he'll take a ton of money in the Derby.


Apollo curse... but I see Cloud Computing as a good bet for the Belmont or Travers. Think this horse will be a force later in the year

cj
04-07-2017, 05:05 PM
David Aragona's analysis of the Wood:

https://timeformusblog.com/2017/04/07/kentucky-derby-prep-analysis-the-skys-the-limit-for-cloud-computing-in-the-wood-memorial/

boys at tosconova
04-07-2017, 07:50 PM
I could always hammer Battalion Runner @ 2-1, thinking he's slightly more likely than Cloud Computing, but I like my 2-1's to be less contested.

it's going to be interesting to see what the odds will be on the 3 and 7.

i thought cloud was an underlay in the gotham @ 6-1 in a seven horse field when nobody was taking about him.

it's pretty safe to assume that you will likely have to settle for less than you think with a win bet on either. it is possible that batallion can be 6/5 and cloud not far behind.

PaceAdvantage
04-08-2017, 02:39 AM
Who is this Battalion horse? I wouldn't bet him with your money...anyhoo...this looks like a chalk fest to me...

My line:

:7: Cloud Computing 8/5
:8: Irish War Cry 2/1

Lemon Drop Husker
04-08-2017, 02:46 AM
Who is this Battalion horse? I wouldn't bet him with your money...anyhoo...this looks like a chalk fest to me...

My line:

:7: Cloud Computing 8/5
:8: Irish War Cry 2/1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_Uks7D2vEo

sammy the sage
04-08-2017, 07:59 AM
How "bout" some BUTE...cures all ailments...common as Lasix now. :eek:

https://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/04.06.17.WoodMemorial.pdf

PowerUpPaynter
04-08-2017, 08:45 AM
How "bout" some BUTE...cures all ailments...common as Lasix now. :eek:

https://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/04.06.17.WoodMemorial.pdf

is that normal? almost every horse in the race has something wrong with him

EMD4ME
04-08-2017, 09:11 AM
Notes:
:1: Glennrichment - RAN sire line, Buckpasser-x. Massive step up in class coming off maiden score. Modest improvement in figures could yield yield a board hit if others falter.
:2: Mo Town - Hit the distance on the surface in Remsen. A repeat of that performance would easily put him in contention for the win. Bill and Coo in tail female, the same tail of Secretariat. Nothing wrong with JC piloting.
:3:Battalion Runner - RAN top line, Buckpasser-x. Dosage profile including two professional points suggests distance is no problem. Pletcher factor alone will make this one over-bet. When I was comparing him to Always Dreaming I thought BR looked better on paper. Will need to pick up the middle pace to avoid being too far back. Had same concerns with Dreaming which ended up being non-factor. JV a winning pilot.
:4: Bonus Points - Another Pletcher. This one has some fancy inbreeding including Buckpasser and also contains Buckpasser-x. Has not yet shown he can keep up with stronger competition but not humiliated either. These 3 year olds can sometimes pop suddenly but this would be a big pop. Hitting bottom of super would not be a shock.
:5: True Timber - Another Buckpasser-x. Lots of those this year. This one lost ground his last two at shorter distances so I cannot expect him to suddenly gain it. A repeat of Withers run makes a mild threat to hit the board if it's a speed favoring day.
:6: Stretches Stone - I usually think sprinter when I see City Zip in the sire line. This is further supported by the 7.00 DI. I simply cannot use at 9F. Perhaps a repeat of last out could hold for bottom of super but I doubt it with this class.
:7: Cloud Computing - RAN plus Buckpasser-x. Gets a better pilot this time. Gotham repeat very much puts him in contention for the win.
:8: Irish War Cry - RAN plus Buckpasser-x (sound familar yet?). If you're willing to draw a line through the FOY which reminded me of Frosted practically stopping then a possible wire job at reasonable odds.

Tough race to wager. I'll certainly use the :3:&:7: on top of whatever I play.


I LOVE the 7 but to me it's a NEGATIVE rider switch.

Franco is more talented than Irad 7 days a week. It took awhile but he passed him.

jocko699
04-08-2017, 03:45 PM
#2 Mo Town is my play. GL all.

Ruffian1
04-08-2017, 05:24 PM
I like Motown.

Run Nicholas Run
04-08-2017, 07:05 PM
no derby winner out of the wood, IWC will bounce next time.

JustRalph
04-08-2017, 07:30 PM
That 6F fraction was awful slow?

Almost 1:12?

Robert Fischer
04-08-2017, 08:12 PM
Big race from the top two.

Irish War Cry is certainly a Derby win-contender.

Battalion Runner proved to be yet another top 3yo for Pletcher.

f2tornado
04-08-2017, 10:00 PM
I am not impressed with the approximate 39 second final 3/8th. I have some Future wagers on the horse but don't plan on adding on the top side.

boys at tosconova
04-08-2017, 10:16 PM
so we have the war cry and the runner heading to the derby

both of them will attract money as well as pretty solid reasons why they'll compete.

you know what's going to happen. if the last 14 years mean anything for a first or 2nd place finish.

hahaha

https://media.giphy.com/media/lS1XSGltYjIHu/giphy.gif

PowerUpPaynter
04-09-2017, 12:35 PM
Battalion Runner was blowing HARD after the race I was standing 15 feet from him and he was so damn winded even 10 mins after the race was over. There is no way they are sending him to the derby.



Irish War Cry is a legit contender. Tracked played slow all day and the beyer will come back over 100. Most of the Wood's crap outs in the derby have been because the fields have just sucked or the horses who won got hurt. However It was by far the best of the 3 races yesterday. Ignore Irish War Cry at your own peril. I will sit hear and 100% guarantee you he will land in the super somewhere for the derby. Cloud Computing will outrun his odds as well. One of the better Woods in quite some time.

side note, and wrong thread but: Worst Santa Anita Derby this century?

PaceAdvantage
04-09-2017, 12:40 PM
Who is this Battalion horse? I wouldn't bet him with your money...anyhoo...this looks like a chalk fest to me...

My line:

:7: Cloud Computing 8/5
:8: Irish War Cry 2/1Crap, I forgot about this one...another winner...:lol:

I can even win with short prices too...damn I'm getting cocky...