HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 4/2

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields All 10 races on Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will all be based on a static tote analysis will follow.

[Nitro]

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.
Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the
Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #6 - #10
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns
when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) T……...1-8 W/ 5-9-13-12 ..........1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6– Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1400M (7F) T ….....4-5 W/ 6-10-11-12 …….…1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #1 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1200M (6F) T.........1-4 W/ 14-2-13-10.........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1400M (7F) D……....2-6 W/ 11-5-8-14…….....2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1200M (6F) D….…...9-2 W/ 12-14-11-5........3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1400M (7F) T…........7-2 W/ 1-3-13-11…….…3:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1400M (7F) T...........1-8 W/ 9-11-7-10.........4:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #14 & #5 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1200M (6F) T.…….....2-6 W/ 7-3-5-1 …..…....4:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #13 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1400M (7F) T.…........1-2 W/ 3-7-6-4 ………...5:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1400M (7F) T.….......1-2 W/ 8-3-5-9 …….....5:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget! ;)

If the dividend (your return) exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, :faint:
ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners
(including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.)
are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified.
(Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1-8 W/ 5-9-13-12 – - All of that one! (w/#6 Tote Watch - Fin 3rd)
Live Tote Results: 8-1-6-5 – Dutch 12% Profit Margin – PASS
2nd choice $12.10 Early & Live - & $9.30 QUIN Cold / $160.40 TRI BX (w/#6 Tote watch 4th choice)

[Nitro]

Results: R#1 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.6 5.0 9.0 BET PRF
$3 $12 $20
$20 $5 $3 $29 $3 12%
$32 $32 $32

[Nitro]

R#2 - 4-5 W/ 6-10-11-12 -
Live Tote Results: 1-5-7-4 – Live Dutch 70% Profit Margin - HIT
Out Early & 3rd Watch choice $14.10 Live & $53.50 QUIN (w/#1 Tote watch 3rd choice) Lots of solid action on the Winner!

[Nitro]

Results: R#2 - Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 4.5 6.0 BET PRF
$8 $11 $14
$14 $10 $8 $31 $22 70%
$53 $53 $53

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:6: got any chance in this 3rd race?

_________________________________


Obviously not.

[Nitro]

R#3 - 1-4 W/ 14-2-13-10 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 4-10-13-1 - Dutch 71% Profit Margin - HIT
2nd choice $10.70 Early & choice Live - & $15.80 QUIN / $383.00 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#3 - Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 4.3 94.0 BET PRF
$5 $11 $190
$190 $93 $5 $288 $206 71%
$494 $494 $494

[Nitro]

:6: got any chance in this 3rd race?

_________________________________


Obviously not.

It Didn't get much betting action in any of the pools, but some of announcers seemed to like it.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R4 Sha Tin

:5::10::11::14:

:11: is ready

______________________


Not sure about 3/5 ready.

5 is more odds available.

[Nitro]

R#4 - 2-6 W/ 11-5-8-14 -
Live Tote Results: 14-6-9-11 – Dutch 28% Profit Margin - PASS
6th choice $21.40 Early & Live & $130.50 QUIN

[Nitro]

Results: R#4 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.7 8.6 10.0 BET PRF
$3 $19 $22
$22 $4 $3 $29 $8 28%
$37 $37 $37

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R5 Sha TIn

:5: Presidentparamount
:9: Breeder's Star

[Nitro]

R#5 - 9-2 W/ 12-14-11-5 -
Live Tote Results: 4-11-14-6 – Dutch 44% Profit Margin - PASS
OUT Early & Live -

[Nitro]

Results: R#5 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 2.6 6.6 BET PRF
$7 $7 $15
$15 $15 $7 $37 $16 44%
$53 $53 $53

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R6 Sha Tin

:10: Electric Ligthning

[Nitro]

R6 Sha Tin

:10: Electric Ligthning

Boy that one got pounded late - 28/1 to 12/1 and made up some ground from last to 5th! WOW!

[Nitro]

R#6 -7-2 W/ 1-3-13-11 [/-B] - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: [B] 7-1-11-2 – Dutch 100% Profit Margin - HIT
Top choice $9.10 Early & choice Live - & $37.20 QUIN / $559.40 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#6 - Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.5 5.2 7.5 BET PRF
$9 $12 $17
$17 $12 $9 $38 $38 100%
$77 $77 $77

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-8 W/ 9-11-7-10 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 8-9-1-4 – Dutch 14% Profit Margin - PASS
2nd choice $16.20 Early & Live & $9.80 QUIN / $140.00 TRI BX from the TOP 3

[Nitro]

Results: R#7 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.6 7.0 7.1 BET PRF
$3 $16 $16
$16 $3 $3 $23 $3 14%
$26 $26 $26

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-6 W/ 7-3-5-1 - All of that one! (w/#13 Tote Watch - Fin 3rd)
Live Tote Results: 6-7-13-2 - Dutch 16% Profit Margin - PASS
2nd choice $4.50 Early & Top choice Live & $11.20 Quin / $242.40 TRI BX (w/#13 Tote watch 5th choice)

[Nitro]

Results: R#8 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.0 3.2 7.0 BET PRF
$4 $8 $16
$16 $8 $4 $28 $4 16%
$32 $32 $32

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1-2 W/ 3-7-6-4 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 2-4-1-11 - Dutch 16% Profit Margin - PASS
2nd choice $6.10 Early & Live & $36.10 QUIN / $202.00 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#9 - Dutch PASS

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 2.2 3.6 BET PRF
$6 $6 $9
$9 $9 $6 $24 $4 16%
$28 $28 $28

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1-2 W/ 8-3-5-9 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 1-8-3-10 - Dutch 108% Profit Margin - HIT
Top choice $7.10 Early & Live & $34.60 QUIN / $483.40 TRI BX

[Nitro]

Results: R#10 - Dutch HIT

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 8.6 10.0 BET PRF
$7 $19 $22
$22 $8 $7 $37 $40 108%
$77 $77 $77