top 10 mistakes

[ldiatone]

just f.ound this one can dipute or agree or just have fun reading
http://racingdudes.com/top-10-kentucky-derby-wagering-mistakes/

[EasyGoer89]

Their #10 take a stand, what if your stand is that anything can happen? I've had that theory before and I've boxed up a large amount of horses in the tri, my stand was I had no stand! :jump:

[EasyGoer89]

I think the thing that people need to realize (more of something to realize vs a mistake) is that you can't bet a 20 horse field like you normally bet, it's a different animal. Picking a WINNER in a 20 horse field is equivalent to picking a cold exa in a 5 horse field, it's hard.

Picking a winning exacta in a 20 horse field is equivalent to trying to pick a winner in a 380 horse field, think you could pick a winner out of 380 horses (hypothetically of course)

A race like the derby isn't for the faint of bankroll!

[Inner Dirt]

The guy is the liar if he thinks he is the worst at picking the Kentucky Derby winner, because I have that honor. There have been 38 of them run since I started betting thoroughbreds at the age of 18. Looking over the list I have only picked it correctly 5 times that all paid less than $10 to win. I went in person once in 1999 and did not cash a ticket on a Churchill race on Oaks or Derby day. Even if I am not betting I always tried to pick the race.

[thaskalos]

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years. :)

[reckless]

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years. :)

Gus, did you know that 54 of the last 54 Derby winners were first at the finish line too?

[Murph]

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years. :)I can make good use of this statistic. I don't how common the knowledge may be but it saves me some time on the question. Which leads to a question.

Gus, did you know that 54 of the last 54 Derby winners were first at the finish line too?Why do they flog on you, thaskalos? I've noticed your hit rate for this type of comment is up recently.

[thaskalos]

Why do they flog on you, thaskalos? I've noticed your hit rate for this type of comment is up recently.

If this is what you consider "flogging"...then I am led to believe that you haven't been spending much time around here. :)

[Murph]

If this is what you consider "flogging"...then I am led to believe that you haven't been spending much time around here. :)OK Now I get it.;)

[Inner Dirt]

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years. :)

I would venture a guess if they held other 1 1/4 mile races for 3 year olds in late spring or earlier you would get the same result. After running 1 1/8 mile not many have enough energy to overtake a rival.

[HuggingTheRail]

Gus, did you know that 54 of the last 54 Derby winners were first at the finish line too?

Dancer's Image with an asterisk?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Taking a stance resonates with me. Like most people, my success in the Derby has been mixed, but I've had some memorable hits - Pleasant Colony, Unbridled, Sunny's Halo, Thunder Gulch, Monarchos - that were because I had a firm opinion. Of course some years my opinion is a lot shakier than others. To steal a line from Rush

If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice

[HoofedInTheChest]

If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice

You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill
I will choose a path that's clear
I will choose freewill ;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

If mediocre payoffs are the most likely outcomes=pass the race. Mediocrity can be had any day of the week and in more predictable races.

[PhantomOnTour]

If mediocre payoffs are the most likely outcomes=pass the race. Mediocrity can be had any day of the week and in more predictable races.

I'm usually ecstatic when I hit the Derby ex or tri or whatever....but last year I basically watched in bored silence as I hit the trifecta.
It seemed so easy and anticlimactic. All I could muster was a small "hang on Gun Runner" as Nyquist went by him in the lane. Luckily he barely held 3rd.
Hoping this year provides more excitement and value as we've had some boring Derbies lately that didn't pay well (see the Chrome, Dortmund, Firing Line finish from a few years ago)

[ldiatone]

You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill
I will choose a path that's clear
I will choose freewill ;)
OMG!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm usually ecstatic when I hit the Derby ex or tri or whatever....but last year I basically watched in bored silence as I hit the trifecta.
It seemed so easy and anticlimactic. All I could muster was a small "hang on Gun Runner" as Nyquist went by him in the lane. Luckily he barely held 3rd.
Hoping this year provides more excitement and value as we've had some boring Derbies lately that didn't pay well (see the Chrome, Dortmund, Firing Line finish from a few years ago)

I've had more cashes but only 3 solid hits during the Triple Crown during the last 7 years. The 2011 and 2013 Derbies and the 2014 Belmont. Anticlimactic is the right word here definitely! And when I read threads talking about chalk key overlays in a tri or super in the Derby race my head gets ready to explode. I loathe that train of thought for this race!

[mountainman]

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years. :)

I think that stat potentially confuses cause and effect. Many of those horses don't win because they are so prominent at the furlong marker; they are prominent at the eighth pole because they are destined to win. And that's a HUGE difference.

[ultracapper]

The guy is the liar if he thinks he is the worst at picking the Kentucky Derby winner, because I have that honor. There have been 38 of them run since I started betting thoroughbreds at the age of 18. Looking over the list I have only picked it correctly 5 times that all paid less than $10 to win. I went in person once in 1999 and did not cash a ticket on a Churchill race on Oaks or Derby day. Even if I am not betting I always tried to pick the race.

Since 1982, Unbridled, FuPeg, and I'll Have Another. That's my KD winners. I have a real love/hate relationship with the race.

[Inner Dirt]

The guy is the liar if he thinks he is the worst at picking the Kentucky Derby winner, because I have that honor. There have been 38 of them run since I started betting thoroughbreds at the age of 18. Looking over the list I have only picked it correctly 5 times that all paid less than $10 to win. I went in person once in 1999 and did not cash a ticket on a Churchill race on Oaks or Derby day. Even if I am not betting I always tried to pick the race.


Since 1982, Unbridled, FuPeg, and I'll Have Another. That's my KD winners. I have a real love/hate relationship with the race.


You have a couple nice prices in your 3, one of my five was Spectacular Bid when I was 18. I love to look at the form and watch the race I just hate trying to bet on it. The Kentucky Derby is one sporting event I never miss watching no matter what, the other 2 are the Super Bowl and the Indy 500. I started the streak 44 years ago at the age of 12, my Grandma was a big Secretariat fan. Didn't get to the track till two years later at 14.

[ultracapper]

Unbridled was one of those "life changing" plays for me. I had $10 across the board on him, and a $10 exacta box with Summer Squall. That was when I started to look at the whole thing differently. It was the most money I had ever bet on a race up to that time, and it was about 5X more than I'd ever won on a race up to that time. Even through the very substantial partying my friends and I experienced that night, I couldn't help but think about the potential this game might hold for me.

There was still a lo-o-o-o-o-o-ong way to go for me, but I did start looking at it all from a little different viewpoint that day/night.

[Hapman]

I've definitely fallen victim to using closers on top thinking they can win, when as the article points out they're dangerous for under in exotics but rarely actually win the thing.

I frankly just try to gamble a bit with this race. For me the winner is usually clear enough but if you play the unders in your ex or tri right you have the potential to hit some good scores.

[ultracapper]

You have a couple nice prices in your 3, one of my five was Spectacular Bid when I was 18. I love to look at the form and watch the race I just hate trying to bet on it. The Kentucky Derby is one sporting event I never miss watching no matter what, the other 2 are the Super Bowl and the Indy 500. I started the streak 44 years ago at the age of 12, my Grandma was a big Secretariat fan. Didn't get to the track till two years later at 14.

I loved Giacomo............until his SA Derby. I thought he hung in that race, and I got off him. When he crossed the line first at Churchill, I could have cried.

[HandiTrack]

I took a stand for Smarty Jones, I had him over Lion Heart and I don't know if I even had them boxed.

I did NOT take a stand the year Mine That Bird won and threw $2 wins on like the 8 longest shots in the field because I kind of hated everyone, and got a hundred bucks as a reward.

I think the derby is a race unlike any other and all rules or angles kind of go out the window with that kind of traffic (at least a quarter of the field ends up with a bum trip). My only decent derby scores (above) came from just going with my gut. Actual "handicapping" gets me very little unless there is someone like American Pharoah in the field, and then you get $7.80 for your efforts.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years. :)

Hey, all you have to do is figure out the 3 or 4 horses every year that will be in 1st or 2nd with 1 furlong to go. That ish be easy. :pound:

I want to ask the prognosticator of this article 3 questions:

1. Is water wet?
2. Has man stepped foot on the moon?
3. Can you find Louisville, KY on a map?

[trytrytry]

add ignore all the japan based and Dubai run horses and that will cross off another for you each year, sometimes two.

Lani anyone :D

[lamboguy]

the Kentucky Derby is the toughest race in the world to pick winners at . it might be a good time to try place or show bets due to the large pools and the lesser effect that breakage will have on your outcome.