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boys at tosconova
03-27-2017, 06:20 PM
discuss

Grade II $1 million Louisiana Derby, April 1, Fair Grounds Race Course


Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
No. 1 Patch Tyler Gafflione Todd Pletcher 9-2
No. 2 Hollywood Handsome Francisco Torres Dallas Stewart 12-1
No. 3 Local Hero Florent Geroux Steve Asmumssen 7-2
No. 4 Senior Investment Channing Hill Ken McPeek 12-1
No. 5 Monaco Rajiv Maragh Todd Pletcher 12-1
No. 6 Guest Suite Robby Albarado Neil Howard 4-1
No. 7 Sorry Erik Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 30-1
No. 8 Girvin Brian Hernandez Jr. Joe Sharp 8-5
No. 9 Hotfoot James Graham Joe Sharp 30-1

f2tornado
03-27-2017, 09:50 PM
This looks like another minor league prep. No Gun Runner this year. With only 9 horses but some potential exotics bombers I will go for a fat payout

:1: Patch is a Buckpasser-x with 30 dosage points including a solid point. Would be a big step up but Pletcher known to pull that off.
:6: Guest Suite is RAN sire line, two shots of Buckpasser-x five back including tail female line. That tail female line also produced a couple Belmont winners. Will need to step it up but the bloodlines are there to do it. The bet if I can get the ML or better.
:7: Sorry Erik has Bold Ruler sire line and Buckpasser-x, female family 1. One would think this one would have shown something more after nine starts but the price will be right.
:8: Girvin is not worth 8/5 in my book. I dread the Storm Cats to begin with. I'm going to let this one beat me or use as a saver only.
:9: Hotfoot has Buckpasser and Mahmoud in tail female. Another with many starts but maybe could pop at 9F.

boys at tosconova
03-27-2017, 11:15 PM
9- hotfoot

lol. seems to be no rhyme or reason for the approach to run this horse. 30k restricted claimers..maiden claimers....turf,...dirt...well, it least they settled on him being a route horse. it doesn't take much a capper to see what the m.o is for this race, especially when your stablemate is by the same owner, in the same race, a closer and possible race time favorite. speed, and more speed. sharp to graham...."psssttt....gun and loosen up the front so we can get girvin something to run at".

autotoss #1


5- monaco

i don't know about you but this horse reeks of desperation. looks like he's taken the road less traveled to try and get to the twin spires the first week in may. while i can't argue w/ any path to get to the derby. the fact is he's a 1.3mil 2yr old from powerful connections ducking horses. lets just throw some blinkers on and pray he can validate himself. if he wasn't in pletcher's barn i wouldn't even give him another look. regardless, he's still going to be a victim of my cuts and a likely pace victim

boys at tosconova
03-27-2017, 11:31 PM
7- sorry erik

maiden claimers...20k claimers...looks really cheap..you don;t go from being a 20k claimer in january to winning a 1 million dollar race in march.....but the horse was 3-1 vs vending machine in november, and his race in the risen star wasn't as bad as it looked on paper. obv gameplan will be to sit and close for a piece, racing wide is not advisable. desormeaux should be tickled pink if the horse can somehow close for 4/5th

boys at tosconova
03-27-2017, 11:50 PM
2-hollywood handsome

can't take most of stewart's horses seriously, as most of his maiden types need planetary alignment to hit the board. good news is is that he's looked better in his two 3yr old starts, the bad news is, like most of his previous years models, they look cheap..but hey..at least he not in the preakness off of this races. senior investment beat the horse last year and last time out he finished 3rd to the distant 5th place finisher in the sunland derby. at least the connections should be able to enjoy cocktails and brush up on their cajun while in the clubhouse

well,..looks like we're down to the top 5. if i feel bad about tossing repole's horse i can always find a way to work him in here or there somehow.

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 12:08 AM
4- senior investment.

last three races have been pretty strong, albeit against questionable opponents. however, he did beat battaglia winner it's your nickel, if that turns you on. don't know far back the horse is going to be. but he should be closing late. he also might be a cheap suit and only close for 5th on his best day...muhahahaha. but hey,......you still made the top 5!!!!!

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 12:51 AM
8- girvin

i'm sure you'll be hearing many negatives to avoid playing this horse in the next few days. horse doesn't come off the rail, will be a low price, will have to race differently than he ever has. i would be lying if i told you i didn't believe it as well. horse doesn't have to be your key, and you shouldn't be surprised if the horse finishes 3rd/4th in here

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 01:07 AM
3-local hero

outside of the fact that the horse can improve, i really can't see this horse winning or finishing 2nd unless he figures out a few things, or does things that he hasn't done yet. he was wheeling on the lead in the risen unpressed and not really going the fast and he still spit it out.

now you need him to go further, and he should have more pressure, and will have to go faster.

this looks like a bad spot imo if he doesn;t take another step forward, good news is you'll know where he'll be.

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 01:20 AM
1 -patch

unlike hedge fund, this pletcher two race 3yr old looks well meant. horse will be close up and can be any kind. he looked very strong in both maiden races. i think he's a legitimate player to win or finish 2nd. it requires some faith but you might get 4-1, and the horse might be a beast

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 03:04 AM
6- guest suite

in all of his previous races he was never as far back he was last race. there really wasn't much movement up front for the duration and he had to be compromised a great deal because of it.

i don't really like albarado and he just seemed to wait to move and then didn't even get into horse to pass local hero and get 3rd when it looked like he had the chance to.

i have to think he'll be closer up and primed for a better run in here. the extra distance should help as well.

no reason why you won't get 4-1 as well

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 08:02 PM
i really don't want to be completely gung ho w/ the 1 in here. in his 1st maiden race it didn't even look like he tried and he got 2nd. that was impressive and obv a springboard to future races.

in his win at 1mile he did improve like he should have and won, but it wasn't the easiest for him getting by a 50-1 shot. he obv can improve once again, but this is a big step up and comes with more risks. i don't think you'll get the price you should with this horse to bet to win

maiden victory

http://tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_Gulfstream.aspx?EventID=110576&Date=2/18/2017&Type=TBRED&Venue=20&DisplayType=1

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 08:25 PM
the more i keep looking at this race the more it seems that the 6 is the play.

girvin is going to have to likely race wide in here and make moves that he's never done. and likely he'll be behind guest suite. he's not going to have a dream trip. sure he might be better and can still do it..but seems overbet w/ some unanswered questions. 8-5/2-1 is way too low.

patch is lightly raced and still has some questions and risks. gimme 8-1 to 10-1 and he looks quite a bit better. taking 3-1/9-2 is less appealing with this field. he just has to do more to earn this respect, and he hasn't. even w/ pletcher.

local hero...can the horse even stalk? does he have to be on the lead? distance looks dicey .....obv he can improve but he'll need to. if he can stalk and learn how to race he can win this. but there's not enough in the forecast that says that it will happen.

senior investment- have to like this horse a little. he just keeps coming. don't know what kind of price you'll get but i feel he's the only longshot w/ a chance to hit the board. is 10-1 a longshot?

you really have to let the other 4 horses beat you. unless you're just into wishful thinking, playing longshots, and "this is a horse race, any horse can win" you really have to leave them out.

Spalding No!
03-28-2017, 09:15 PM
I'm a bit concerned with the whole rabbit thing from the Girvin camp. They appear too worried about 1-for-4 Local Hero. As you pointed out, that horse has nothing but an uphill climb to face in order to win. He essentially ran off in the Risen Star and predictably wilted (similar to Irish War Cry really). Unless Steve Asmussen has been able to completely settle the horse in only a few weeks, I would expect more of the same in the LA Derby.

So why did Joe Sharp enter Hotfoot as a rabbit? To my thinking, this may actually hinder Girvin. Girvin was sharp early in his maiden debut around one-turn, dueling for the lead. He also had some minor gate trouble breaking from the rail in the Risen Star. If he gets a clean start in the LA Derby, shows some of that early zip, then feels some heat from his rabbit stablemate directly to his outside, and all the while Local Hero will probably be under a hammer lock heading to the first turn to avoid running off, Girvin could end up in a duel himself.

Things could set up for Guest Suite quite nicely, and he has been working very sharply for the past 3 weeks.

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 09:28 PM
I'm a bit concerned with the whole rabbit thing from the Girvin camp. They appear too worried about 1-for-4 Local Hero. As you pointed out, that horse has nothing but an uphill climb to face in order to win. He essentially ran off in the Risen Star and predictably wilted (similar to Irish War Cry really). Unless Steve Asmussen has been able to completely settle the horse in only a few weeks, I would expect more of the same in the LA Derby.

So why did Joe Sharp enter Hotfoot as a rabbit? To my thinking, this may actually hinder Girvin. Girvin was sharp early in his maiden debut around one-turn, dueling for the lead. He also had some minor gate trouble breaking from the rail in the Risen Star. If he gets a clean start in the LA Derby, shows some of that early zip, then feels some heat from his rabbit stablemate directly to his outside, and all the while Local Hero will probably be under a hammer lock heading to the first turn to avoid running off, Girvin could end up in a duel himself.

Things could set up for Guest Suite quite nicely, and he has been working very sharply for the past 3 weeks.

i don't think girvin will show any early foot. that can't be the plan going into the race w/ hotfoot in and this post. can't rule out that the horse will be last and/or likely on the outside further back than he ever was before.

girvin might be 6/5/7/5 and guest suite might be a low 2-1/5-2

rsetup
03-28-2017, 09:48 PM
Local Hero

Robert Fischer
03-28-2017, 10:04 PM
Girvin is a no-brainer.
Senior Investment is going to be VERY tough, and should be good value.
Local Hero may have run better in the Risen Star than it appeared.
Monaco is probably too cheap, but is somewhat interesting.

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 10:31 PM
pletcher workout vid

sonic mule and patch


looks like sonic mule got the best of him. sonic mule isn't a derby horse either.

just found out that patch is missing his left eye...lol


http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/patch-outside-and-sonic-mule-worked-4-furlongs-in-49-00-at-palm-beach-downs-on-march-4th-2017/

Robert Fischer
03-29-2017, 01:52 PM
Local Hero

Should get a good price.

seńorclipclop
03-29-2017, 06:00 PM
One of the weakest LA Derbies in recent memory. I'm ready to get back on Guest Suite, Dallas Stewart's horse should finish in the super.

PowerUpPaynter
03-29-2017, 08:52 PM
One of the weakest LA Derbies in recent memory. I'm ready to get back on Guest Suite, Dallas Stewart's horse should finish in the super.

hopefully Girvin runs away with it and takes a bunch of money derby day. he sure looks like Friesen Fire to me. m/l 09 KD favorite from LA Derby, went off 5-1, still hasnt finished the 2009 derby.... i think hes coming around the turn now... finally

seńorclipclop
03-29-2017, 09:06 PM
hopefully Girvin runs away with it and takes a bunch of money derby day. he sure looks like Friesen Fire to me. m/l 09 KD favorite from LA Derby, went off 5-1, still hasnt finished the 2009 derby.... i think hes coming around the turn now... finally

100% agreed.

boys at tosconova
03-29-2017, 11:07 PM
that SW race was such a weird race. how could local hero get away by open lengths and not go that fast to do so?

and honestly,..how can you not believe if girvin and guest suite changed positions on the track that race the results would have been in favor of guest suite instead.

i'm so close to placing a huge bet on the 6

Lemon Drop Husker
03-30-2017, 06:31 PM
Only horses I'm looking at are the :4: or :5:

:8: Girvin got a gift last out, and will be vastly overbet.

:1: Patch, may be a Pletcher, but why Gaffalione?

:3: Local Hero has speed and died at 8 1/2 panels. How can we expect him to go 9?

:6: Guest Suite makes sense I guess. And I won't be shocked if he is the post time favorite.

:4: Senior Investment obviously needs some heat up front so he can close from the clouds. He just may get it, and at 12/1 or so, with McPeek and a decent jock, I've seen worse plays.

:5: Monaco is the wild card for me. Yeah, he hasn't shown crap as a $1.3 Million purchase. His numbers are awful, and it looks like he needs to be close. Then again, he is a Pletcher, and this one gets Maragh while the other "better" Pletcher gets Gaffalione. An overly bet horse that just ran a dismal 1:43 over a mile and change last out, but at least it included horses that were above 3YO. Last 3 works are appetizing, and if I can get a Pletcher this year, in a Derby prep at 15/1 or more, I may well bite.