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boys at tosconova
03-26-2017, 12:29 AM
discuss

PowerUpPaynter
03-26-2017, 04:58 AM
Bronze Age... 'nuff said

MonmouthParkJoe
03-26-2017, 10:34 AM
Sunland is about 4.5 hours from here and debated going with a big group that made the trek yesterday for this. I saw the entries and decided against it. Next trip for me is the SA derby that I can drive to, or Keeneland if i can find a cheap enough flight.

Inner Dirt
03-26-2017, 10:46 AM
I rarely bet Sunland Park, but I was stunned when I looked up an article about the Sunland Park Derby that said it had a purse of $800,000. Like I said I know little about the track but if ventured to guess at the purse I figured it would be a low end derby in the $150,000 range.

duncan04
03-26-2017, 10:57 AM
I rarely bet Sunland Park, but I was stunned when I looked up an article about the Sunland Park Derby that said it had a purse of $800,000. Like I said I know little about the track but if ventured to guess at the purse I figured it would be a low end derby in the $150,000 range.


Slot money since it is a racetrack and casino

f2tornado
03-26-2017, 02:43 PM
Unfortunately no dime supers in this one. The Baffert looks like the one to beat but I'm not convinced he can lead all the way around. It's otherwise wide open. Sometimes taking a breeding angle works better at these 9F races. The Spriral winner was a female family 1 and had one of Stanley's conduit mares in tail female so perhaps not a shocker in spite of 25-1.

:1: Shareholder Value - Has War Admiral-x in tail female line and one of the best pilots in the country.
:2: Hedge Fund - RAN sire line. Atoviscar in tail female. Very capable Ortiz up.
:3: Bronze Age - Always respect Baffert but can his front running style get it done at 9F? Best BSF and Brisnet figure last out. Has Buckpasser-x and a solid dosage point. All sorts of interesting inbreeding.
:5: Irap - Decent place to Royal Mo in the Robert B. Placed again to the local 12 last out. Has Buckpasser-x in tail female but yet to pop a fast stretch run. Could certainly hold. Blinkers back on adds another angle.
:9: Hence - Asmussen sometimes pops a price and this one has Mr.P via RAN/Gold Digger on both sides. Buckpasser-x through dam sire.
:11: Total Tap - Another Asmussen trained RAN colt with Buckpasser-x and some cute inbreeding. Geroux no slouch.
:12: Conquest Mo Money - 3 for 3 at the track with a double shot of Buckpasser-x only 4 deep. Also Mahmoud in tail female line.

Too many to use in $1 minimum verticals for my wallet. Maybe play the P3.

boys at tosconova
03-26-2017, 03:02 PM
i have a couple of questions.

why would castellano opt for the 1 over the 2?


and

how did the 12 horse only sell for 8500 as a 2yr old when he was close to a 200k yearling? did he have legs that looked like loose wagon wheels?...and regarding him, why would you not nominate to the TC for 6k last week?

f2tornado
03-26-2017, 03:15 PM
i have a couple of questions.

why would castellano opt for the 1 over the 2?


and

how did the 12 horse only sell for 8500 as a 2yr old when he was close to a 200k yearling? did he have legs that looked like loose wagon wheels?...and regarding him, why would you not nominate to the TC for 6k last week?

Per 1: Ignoring upside potential, do you go with the horse that ran in two graded stakes or the one that just broke maiden?

Per 2: Agree. Why not take a $6k flier after winning the Mine That Bird. Same logic for the Spriral winner. If the trainer thought the horse was legit then $6k is a lot cheaper than $200k.

Run Nicholas Run
03-26-2017, 04:02 PM
the fluke of mine that pos, has caused this minor league track
to have some attention, no ky derby winner in here, the one time
has come and gone.

boys at tosconova
03-26-2017, 04:54 PM
Per 1: Ignoring upside potential, do you go with the horse that ran in two graded stakes or the one that just broke maiden?

i don;t know about you, but the 1 horse doesn't appear to be the kind of horse you would jump off 2 for.

there has to be some kind of back story to this move

boys at tosconova
03-26-2017, 05:07 PM
those OP maiden grad horses looked like chit in the SW. second place finisher petrov beat them by almost 10L. because of this why would oxford lane be any different than the 6 and 9.

and if castellano honestly thinks the 1 is better than the 2, this further clouds the picture, as the 1 doesn't look like anything special at all

Robert Fischer
03-26-2017, 07:37 PM
Looks a little chalky, but there are decent horses.
:2: Hedge Fund should bury these. Will we get over 5/2?

Baffert's horse, Bronze Age has a puncher's chance.
O'Neil has a long shot chance in Irap.= A likely 'underneath key', who needs to stop hanging in the stretch, in order to get a win.
Local Conquest MO is a trap, but should run a solid race. Seems to need the 3 BIGS to sputter.

boys at tosconova
03-26-2017, 07:57 PM
only 2 possible longshots i see outside the figs are the 10 and 11.

if the 10 could get the distance he could get a piece. and if the 11 is classy enough, he could be there as well. distance is in his wheelhouse

Robert Fischer
03-26-2017, 08:57 PM
Unfortunately no dime supers in this one. The Baffert looks like the one to beat but I'm not convinced he can lead all the way around. It's otherwise wide open. Sometimes taking a breeding angle works better at these 9F races. The Spriral winner was a female family 1 and had one of Stanley's conduit mares in tail female so perhaps not a shocker in spite of 25-1.

:1: Shareholder Value - Has War Admiral-x in tail female line and one of the best pilots in the country.
:2: Hedge Fund - RAN sire line. Atoviscar in tail female. Very capable Ortiz up.
:3: Bronze Age - Always respect Baffert but can his front running style get it done at 9F? Best BSF and Brisnet figure last out. Has Buckpasser-x and a solid dosage point. All sorts of interesting inbreeding.
:5: Irap - Decent place to Royal Mo in the Robert B. Placed again to the local 12 last out. Has Buckpasser-x in tail female but yet to pop a fast stretch run. Could certainly hold. Blinkers back on adds another angle.
:9: Hence - Asmussen sometimes pops a price and this one has Mr.P via RAN/Gold Digger on both sides. Buckpasser-x through dam sire.
:11: Total Tap - Another Asmussen trained RAN colt with Buckpasser-x and some cute inbreeding. Geroux no slouch.
:12: Conquest Mo Money - 3 for 3 at the track with a double shot of Buckpasser-x only 4 deep. Also Mahmoud in tail female line.

Too many to use in $1 minimum verticals for my wallet. Maybe play the P3.

Hence looked good.

f2tornado
03-26-2017, 10:03 PM
:coffee:Hence looked good.
Yes he did. Those final fractions should come out pretty hot. I don't know about that rider, what the speed figs will look like, or how much he beat... but in the mess that is this year, I wouldn't totally punt this one.

Mulerider
03-26-2017, 10:45 PM
Hence looked good.

Looking forward to seeing his numbers. Anybody know if Bronze Age sustained any type of injury? He stumbled pretty badly out the gate, and was right up near the lead on the backstretch. Watching the replay, just before he dropped out his head dipped a bit and it looked like he might have taken a bad step. Couldn't tell from the replay if Garcia took him out or if the horse took himself out.

Mule

Robert Fischer
03-27-2017, 03:58 AM
Looking forward to seeing his numbers. Anybody know if Bronze Age sustained any type of injury? He stumbled pretty badly out the gate, and was right up near the lead on the backstretch. Watching the replay, just before he dropped out his head dipped a bit and it looked like he might have taken a bad step. Couldn't tell from the replay if Garcia took him out or if the horse took himself out.

Mule

First glance of pps, Bronze Age looked tough, but his win was such a dream trip, and his lose was a similar weakening!

caught and tackled
Thought Hedge Fund would win, and win in early domination AfTer handling a significant bias in his prep race.just overcome a huge price as previous one. a really good pace projector. H had that huge against golf stream post by us a really good trip while going just a bit too fast, HUgE DOMINATINGbut he exposed himself. Thought his lack of a nomination, and the public' slack of support were meaningless. Was on his way to a Blowout win, when the field suddenly him. Irap should have passes the fadding third , but hung again. Conquest mo ran hi his expected belongs but doesn't contend race for minor share .
Now that is Big Drama!

PowerUpPaynter
03-27-2017, 08:00 AM
Final fractions run by Hence were strong, but Sunland always plays like a drag strip from what I remember. This horse did finish like 12 lengths behind Petrov in the Southwest so I dont know what to make of this performance.

sbcaris
03-27-2017, 02:08 PM
Hence put himself directly into the Derby picture with that impressive win. He ran the last 3/8 in 37 2/5. His dam side is powerful with 5 of the first 6 dam sires being outstanding broodmare sires: AP Indy, Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Dedicate, Blue Larkspur, and Sir Gallahad III.

f2tornado
03-27-2017, 03:50 PM
Final fractions run by Hence were strong, but Sunland always plays like a drag strip from what I remember. This horse did finish like 12 lengths behind Petrov in the Southwest so I dont know what to make of this performance.

I'm always cautious playing the flatter game with these 3 year old horses particularly this early in the season. Perhaps the exception are those that have already busted out high speed figures. Remember Mine That Bird didn't even win the Sunland. He was 4th. These young horses can pop in a hurry. Remember Arrogate didn't realize his potential until Travers day. I'm not saying Hence is your Derby winner but he certainly has the prototypical Derby winning pedigree of the past few decades. Raise A Native on top (has won most by far with an impact value near 2.00, half the winners but only quarter of the starters), Buckpasser-x which have hit the exacta about half the time when they run fast final fractions in 9F prep (albeit Stanley's small sample excludes Sunland), Blue Larkspur in tail female line, DI of 3.31 which fits recent historical average. I don't know if the RF means anything but he's got MrP on both sides via RAN/Gold Digger. In a year where RAN horses are seemingly limited, this one perks my interest and the odds will be solid... but I want to see a bona fide pilot on him (which was a big reason I didn't bet him in the prep. Oops). There's still the big six preps left so no rush aside from whatever Derby Future wagers I make after the FL Derby.

boys at tosconova
03-27-2017, 06:23 PM
i didn't watch the replay yet but the more i kept looking at that race the more and more i thought the 12 was the strongest and safest play..

the 2 had built in excuses. he was off the layoff and you really didn't know how good he was.

bronze was sucking wind in his last race and distance was extremely questionable this time around imo. we were just giving the horse the benefit of the doubt. same w/ the 2

the 1 was the defacto play based on the jock switch, improved post and possible problems w/ the above horses. thing is, he really didn't look that good.

the 9 was hard to come up with. only way you can play w/ any conviction if you throw out his SW race. and guess...lol but why should you? looking at lee and that roan horse came back to run very underwhelmingly, and petrov who beat him by almost 10L came back to a disappointing 4th in the rebel as well.

to top it off you got a severe underlay @ 9-1......weaksauce

PowerUpPaynter
03-27-2017, 08:00 PM
Hence put himself directly into the Derby picture with that impressive win. He ran the last 3/8 in 37 2/5. His dam side is powerful with 5 of the first 6 dam sires being outstanding broodmare sires: AP Indy, Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Dedicate, Blue Larkspur, and Sir Gallahad III.

Whats your thoughts on the fact the fast fractions were run at Sunland which is always fast?

sbcaris
03-27-2017, 09:14 PM
Sunland is certainly a very fast track and that 1/2 mile fraction of 45 was very fast for a 9 furlong event. Although the field was not impressive Hence finished 4/5 of a second over the track record of 1:47 1/5 and was drawing away at the end. He may offer value on the tote board Derby day as his previous races were all weak Beyer figs. He might be a long shot worth considering in the Derby since he has distance breeding with 5 major broodmare sires on his dam side within 6 generations as I pointed out above.

f2tornado
03-27-2017, 09:25 PM
Whats your thoughts on the fact the fast fractions were run at Sunland which is always fast?

It's not much faster than the concrete at Santa Anita. Perspective: Firing Line with a world class jockey in Stevens has the record time in 1:47.4 His final 3/8th was in 38.3 with a final panel in respectable 12.7. Hence with a who riding posted a final time in 1:48.1. He ran the final 3/8th in about 37.4 and the final panel in an impeccable 12.4. Equibase figure for the race was a paltry 97 relative to the 108 for Firing Line. Interestingly, Firing Line had the same MrP/Gold Digger inbreeding but in different areas. Perhaps worth noting Firing Line was an American Pharoah away from the Roses. I'll throw some change at it in the final future wager if I get close to 20-1.

Robert Fischer
03-27-2017, 09:42 PM
Conquest Mo Money ran about what we would expect. He's a good barometer.

PowerUpPaynter
03-27-2017, 09:42 PM
Remember Mine That Bird didn't even win the Sunland. He was 4th. These young horses can pop in a hurry.

off topic, but is there/was there any handicapping angle that could of pointed anyone toward Mine That Bird? or is that just a fluke of a fluke that you cant really do anything about unless your strategy is throwing a dart at the program? At least Giacomo had fast closing fractions...

f2tornado
03-27-2017, 10:09 PM
off topic, but is there/was there any handicapping angle that could of pointed anyone toward Mine That Bird?

Pioneerof the Nile was the logical choice that year. He was a nice RAN colt. Finished second. MTB was not an unreasonable longshot play. He was MrP via RAN top and bottom sire lines. He was female family 23b, the same as Lil E Tee and Winning Colors previous (and then him and I'll Have Another). Dosage a tad high but not crazy at 4.33. He had the Derby winning rider of Street Sense two years previous; Bo'Rail. I don't recall the field being all that stellar that year either. MTB certainly a better play than some of the crap I've thrown $10 at but its easy to cap in hindsight.

boys at tosconova
03-28-2017, 01:21 AM
Conquest Mo Money ran about what we would expect. He's a good barometer.

conquest mo money ran a really nice race. i seriously question the owners for not supplementing the horse to the TC.

only reason i can see is that the connections must be stupid, poor, and can't pay their bills...they just hit the lotto w/ this horse, made over 6 figures and conquest stables took a hit from 180k to 8k selling him a year ago. that's the only type of people that wouldn't pony up 6k imo.

Senditin
04-23-2017, 09:10 AM
This is definitely a key power race with Hedge Fund finishing second in the Illinois Derby, Irap winning the Blue Grass and Conquest Mo Money finishing second in the Arkansas Derby. Looks like Hence is a sure play for top 3 positions in the Kentucky Derby.

PowerUpPaynter
05-08-2017, 07:36 PM
guess this prep wasnt as strong as we thought hence and irap did nothing... fool me once.... Conquest Mo Money easy toss in Preakness hopefully he takes a ton of money

f2tornado
05-08-2017, 07:59 PM
guess this prep wasnt as strong as we thought hence and irap did nothing... fool me once.... Conquest Mo Money easy toss in Preakness hopefully he takes a ton of money

Perhaps, but a bad run in a sloppy crowded field doesn't tell the entire story. I'm always willing to toss the Derby and more so if it's a mud bath. I was really high on Hence for a time but back off considerably when I kept staring at his Brisnet 93 LP figure from Sunland. A precious few have hit the KY Derby exacta below a 95. He might be outclassed but I can't totally toss from a Preakness super.

As far a Conquest Mo goes, he was getting wobbly and tiring down the stretch in Oaklawn. His Ark Derby Brisnet LP was a 92, above the 85 in Sunland so the horse could be improving. Still seems short for what's needed at 9.5F. Couldn't beat Empire at 9 and would have been passed by two others with a touch more distance. Owners of this horse should save the supplemental money and throw him in a graded 8.5F race somewhere. No shortage of them.

menifee
05-08-2017, 11:06 PM
I never bought that the Sunland Derby was a key race.

Hence is who everybody thought he was at the beginning of the year. His win in that race was purely a function of pace and trip. Irap is who everybody thought he was. He's not very good. That is why he was a maiden for so long. His win in the Bluegrass was purely a function of beating horses that wanted no part of that distance and a speed favoring race track. Conquest Mo Money is a nice horse, but he's not a G1 caliber horse. The Arkansas Derby was just not a strong race. He's the easiest toss in the Preakness.

AirNate012
05-09-2017, 01:22 AM
I never bought that the Sunland Derby was a key race.

Hence is who everybody thought he was at the beginning of the year. His win in that race was purely a function of pace and trip. Irap is who everybody thought he was. He's not very good. That is why he was a maiden for so long. His win in the Bluegrass was purely a function of beating horses that wanted no part of that distance and a speed favoring race track. Conquest Mo Money is a nice horse, but he's not a G1 caliber horse. The Arkansas Derby was just not a strong race. He's the easiest toss in the Preakness.

How can you call the AR Derby "not a strong race" when the 1st and 3rd place horses from that race made up 2 legs of the super in the KY derby?

menifee
05-09-2017, 03:26 AM
How can you call the AR Derby "not a strong race" when the 1st and 3rd place horses from that race made up 2 legs of the super in the KY derby?

We all know what Looking at Lee is. He runs the same race every time. He is a one run closer. In the Derby, he caught a hot pace on a sloppy track with a great rail. He rode that rail to second. See Cherry Wine in the Preakness. He'll never get a dream setup like that again. He'll be overbet in his next 3-5 starts until the public wises up.

Classic Empire is a talented horse and used his talent to win that race. But he was not 100% percent in that race. He won that race on pure talent. The CE that won the Breeders' Cup wins that race by 5-6 lengths.

I don't want any of the other horses from that race going forward including Conquest Mo Money. It just was not a strong race from a speed figure or class perspective.

Robert Fischer
05-09-2017, 12:18 PM
Hence has shown that he can be pretty good when he can run with the flow of the race, but hasn't ever definitively shown the ability to take over a race. He is a bit of an unknown to me, as far as his actual class, and talent ceiling.
To be honest, I have not critically reviewed the Derby, so I could very well be missing whatever evidence he may have definitively shown in the Derby regarding class and talent ceiling. Skimming this thread, I would be lead to believe that he had a clear trip, had every opportunity, and came up flat and slow. For whatever reason, I think I'll verify it for my own eyes when so inclined.

The rest of the Sunland race was very easy to read.
Irap is not a graded stakes quality contender. Conquest Mo is extremely talented, but has yet to show that he can harness his talent to finish well in a graded stakes route. Conquest Mo quickly draws rough pattern comparisons to Social Inclusion, another recent triple crown trail horse with explosive raw talent, who was more adept at contributing to the quality of the pace, than anything else.

We had a race in the SUN D., that was on a very fast track, and that set up very well for Hence. Potential is always exciting, and if you couldn't rule out the chance of Hence being a player, you should have used him on some KYD tix.
The SunD can be otherwise rationally analyzed, as can the ensuing preps.

The craziness begins when we start to play Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon with thoroughbred running lines. The analysis of the actual races is going to carry more weight in terms of understanding the horses.
A beats BCDE....., and then C wins a race vs F..., and then B runs 'his' race back in a stakes..., and then F(remember C just beat F!) wins a race on today's card.... and all of a sudden some horseplayers who are otherwise very solid, are suddenly making all kinds of irrational assumptions.