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boys at tosconova
03-23-2017, 06:10 PM
discuss

will be adding more thoughts soon

looks like you have 3 groups w/ some overlap imo

have to like the potential odds on the 6. i would like to think the 11 will drift as well.

it's hard not calling 8/9 on your ticket

2/8/9/11

4/6/10

1/3/5

toss 7/12





1. Blueridge Traveler, Kenny McPeek, Channing Hill, 12-1

2. Soglio, Graham Motion, Trevor McCarthy, 6-1

3. Fast and Accurate, Mike Maker, Tyler Gaffalione, 15-1

4. Convict Pike, Rusty Arnold, Angel Cruz, 8-1

5. Colonel Samsen, Eoin Harty, Jose Lezcano, 15-1

6. Giant Payday, Ian Wilkes, Chris Landeros, 8-1

7. Shiraz, Mike Maker, Rafael Hernandez, 20-1

8. Kitten’s Cat, Joe Sharp, Luis Saez, 4-1

9. Parlor, Eddie Kenneally, Jesus Castanon, 5-1

10. Bronson, Todd Pletcher, Manuel Franco, 10-1

11. King and His Court, Mark Casse, Gary Boulanger, 5-1

12. En Hanse, Mike Maker, Robby Albarado, 15-1

boys at tosconova
03-23-2017, 06:49 PM
1-Blueridge Traveler

bottom line is while he's improving most in here could do the same. don't know how he'll take to the surface, not to mention if he's classy enough.


he'll prolly be anywhere from 7-12 at the first call. don't see how you can bet him because he''ll have to outclose proven, scenario better horses. it's not that he can't get a minor piece, it just seems like others are more likely to run better and the unknowns aren't ones to look at positively.


2-Sogilo

i can see people licking their chops thinking they may get a price on the horse, but it's doubtful. the horse takes big money every race. people just assume turf to poly won't be an issue. but you still don't know 100%. another closer, but one that might not be as far back as some of the others that should be coming. convict pike did beat this horse when he was bet down to even money last year


3-Fast & Accurate

good news is he's won his last two races convincingly once give lasix. he's also logical speed in a race which doesn't have that much. bad new is that he might be cheap as chit so those two wins are meaningless. i can't get over maker putting him in a 30k claimer two back only to wheel him out in a 1/2 million dollar race and say he can run w/ these. however, he is familiar w/ the course.


4-Convict Pike

can't argue with what he's done. he's been pretty solid. he should be in the second group of horses, and he beat soligno last year. can't deny that he always makes moves as well. dunno about get 8-1 but he's one to consider

boys at tosconova
03-23-2017, 07:41 PM
5-colonel samsen

so much for bringing your horse along slowly. horse has had 9 races since august w/ mixed results. horse just seems to run evenly and make his run at the end. surface doesn't seem like it will be a problem, but the horse just seems to be on the periphery when compared to others. look at it this way. if the 5/6 closers are turning for home neck and neck how many do you think the colonel will outkick.

he did finish 2nd to kittens cat in a 130k maiden race last year.


6-giant payday

when i handicap races i always look for the best value horse that can win, with the best possible odds. this is the horse this race.

this horse has done little wrong in his starts. can run on turf and dirt as well. so there's little reason to think he can't handle the poly.

surprised to seem him @ 31-1 last out, and while he only finished 5th to kittens cat, he did encounter problems in the race, and he did finish nicely losing by only 3L. hopefully he won't be too far back and it's not much of a stretch to see him run better than last. horse will prolly be over 10-1 to boot. horse is a player and should finish anywhere in the top half

PowerUpPaynter
03-23-2017, 07:58 PM
Eh race shapes up as the minor leagues of prep season... hate the artificial surface too. Much more interested in the Sunland Derby Bronze Age is a nice derby sleeper

f2tornado
03-23-2017, 08:55 PM
The race is a crapshoot but I'm leaning toward the :4: here. He's got the figures and has breeding to easily handle the distance. 38 dosage points including 2 solid and 2 professional. Mahmoud in tail female line. Tribonyx in tail female. Mr. P 4x3. Only thing I don't like is the mild layoff but recent work suggests horse is ready to run. I'll throw a twenty at 8-1.

boys at tosconova
03-23-2017, 10:34 PM
7-shiraz

2nd of three horses entered from maker. clearly the m.o is throw some chit on the wall and hopefully some of it will stick. hasn't really been that bad on the turf. toss the last on the dirt, but last on the poly w/ ortiz was disappointing. did beat kitten cat on jan 7. could pick up the pieces late, but you really have to let the horse beat you.

8-kitten's cat.

parlor beat him. so did shiraz, yet this wil prolly be your 9/5 favorite. well, that's the bad....the good is that he should be in good position up front to stalk and pounce. looks to be well overbet imo. ran second to a really good ticonderoga last out. he's one i'll use w/ others and hope he quits up front or finishes 3rd


9-parlor

only 3 lifetime starts on the turf but they look really strong. horse always seems to break slowly but it hasn't prevented him from being worse than 2nd. imagine if he breaks alertly and shows some early foot. very intriguing horse that was just nominated to the triple crown. have to expect a big run from him wherever he his.

boys at tosconova
03-23-2017, 10:52 PM
10-bronson

i have to admit. i think this pletcher horse come in a lil' light. well, relatively speaking. don't know where he'll be in this race, but he'll prolly be overbet and forwardly placed. seems like a wildcard that you can leave out at your own risk. he's obv in the top 7 on paper.......lol

11-king and his court.

once he moved into the casse barn and picked up lasix he crushed a couple of canadian routes in nov/dec. based on that alone he fits big time here as he seems to love the poly. toss the last on dirt and you have a horse that should be tighter 2nd off of the layoff. pp hurts but the horse deserve a big look in here. made almost 250k in canada last year.


12-en hanse

maker's third horse in here. runs really well at this track and poly. might be a reach. a lil' on the cheap side and possibly distanced challenged. he'll prolly gun to the front and pray.

boys at tosconova
03-23-2017, 11:07 PM
The race is a crapshoot but I'm leaning toward the :4: here. He's got the figures and has breeding to easily handle the distance. 38 dosage points including 2 solid and 2 professional. Mahmoud in tail female line. Tribonyx in tail female. Mr. P 4x3. Only thing I don't like is the mild layoff but recent work suggests horse is ready to run. I'll throw a twenty at 8-1.

i'm starting to think that the 2 and 4 might be a little on the cheap side. after watching the ocala breeder race, convict looks better on paper than on the track, at least that race imo. i think he'll be lower than 8-1 as well

i have it down to 7 horses and i'm going to have to make some more cuts if i start to bet bigger. i will be using the 6 w/ all of the remaining i like back and forth. which really isn't that much coin..12 bux for a dollar.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-25-2017, 03:29 AM
Laugh at the :10: Bronson all you want.

A $350K purchase that is 3 for 4 in the Exacta, just won going 2 turns last out, and keeps coming from what we've seen.

Pletcher shipping to Turfway is also very interesting.

Obviously not the greatest field, but at least they are going 9 panels.

I'm thinking the :9: may be overbet, and that the :12: could be a really interesting price play.

Robert Fischer
03-25-2017, 10:34 AM
Not much pace signed on.

Not capping in depth or watching replays.
3 = could prove stubborn
4= could move up at stretch call to join pace.(likely a key ability)
2=was Eddie Logan fair or favoring speed=must know.
+the chalk

Robert Fischer
03-25-2017, 11:51 AM
Not much pace signed on.

Not capping in depth or watching replays.
3 = could prove stubborn
4= could move up at stretch call to join pace.(likely a key ability)
2=was Eddie Logan fair or favoring speed=must know.
+the chalk

Looks like the Eddie Logan, while not the greatest edition ever, did in fact favor speed. So Soglio could be a key underneath in gimmicks to hit the board.:ThmbUp:

Murph
03-25-2017, 03:20 PM
I'll weigh in here on The Jack Cincinnati Casino Spiral Stakes.

I can make a case to play :12:En Hanse to win and will use him with my
projected favorite :8:Kitten's Cat.

I like 2 contenders for underneath spots. The :5:Colonel Samsen and the
:3:Fast and accurate.

En Hanse is lone E style in this race to match a positive angle for E style in routes with odds above 6-1 at TP and an angle that shows him a 20% edge to the ML for this play as a positive roi angle. Only runner with a prep over a track he has proven to run very well on. M Maker entered three here (:7:Shiraz has scratched) and he may go well early with uncoupled mate Fast and Accurate to test the closers here.

Kitten's Cat has been expertly campaigned by Joe Sharp in the famous big red R silks for Ken and Sarah Ramsey. Kitten's Joy runners take to this surface and his ratings should transfer in this spot. The purse is his to lose.

I see Colonel Samsen and Fast and Accurate as players in the outcome. CS will need a perfect trip to play into his preferred style but may be versatile enough to make the ship. The other shippers are late to the party and have not done what is needed to beat the more experienced local connections in this spot. It appears they may be facing lower expectations soon.

We'll see, I look forward to a good race.

Tom
03-25-2017, 06:30 PM
:5: :4: :11:

Better play these guys today, because none of them will be around in May.

Robert Fischer
03-25-2017, 06:46 PM
Dime supers

3/248910/248910/all
248910/3/248910/all
248910/248910/3/all
248910/248910/all/3
348910/348910/348910/2
348910/348910/2/348910
$76

Lemon Drop Husker
03-25-2017, 07:07 PM
TILT!

:3::1::4::8:

Gonna pay slot machines. :popcorn:

Robert Fischer
03-25-2017, 07:08 PM
Growl
I did my part , but the public sucked. That's what I get for Half-assing the handicapping.

SkunkApe
03-25-2017, 07:20 PM
Damn.

I made a last-minute $2 across the board on Robert Fischer's #3, and saved my clown ass.

My science has no power here.

PowerUpPaynter
03-25-2017, 07:21 PM
What a race of turds

boys at tosconova
03-25-2017, 08:48 PM
only watched the race once but it did look like many of the horses assumed to run well on the surface just didn't take to the track.

wtf was up w/ the 6..left and then was wide, then went backwards only to close.

lol @ it coming in 3-1

i can't give trainers the benefit of the doubt or pat them on the back if you put this horse in a 30k maiden claimer 2 back. that kind of stupidity doesn't deserve to be rewarded.

Tom
03-25-2017, 09:50 PM
What a race of turds

Turds would have been better.

Murph
03-26-2017, 02:19 AM
Turds would have been better.What stinks is that uncoupled entry. I'm on the wrong end of those alot lately.