traynor
03-19-2017, 12:53 PM
I will spare you all the convoluted, boring, extensively detailed explanations of the selection process used, because the point is in the pattern revealed by the results, not the process of selection.
AllTPace 0.55 108 L1 S
AllTPace 1.01 230 L2 S
AllTPace 0.88 204 L3 S
AllTPace 0.74 68 L4 S
AllTPace 0.75 110 L1 NS
AllTPace 1.03 188 L2 NS
AllTPace 0.77 237 L3 NS
AllTPace 0.76 132 L4 NS
AllTTrot 0.29 45 L1 S
AllTTrot 1.70 30 L2 S
AllTTrot 0.65 22 L1 NS
AllTTrot 1.11 48 L2 NS
AllTTrot 0.79 36 L3 NS
AllTTrot 0.66 12 L4 NS
The "S" designation is for those races most would consider "bettable"--NW2, NW3, claimers, etc. The "NS" designation is for those races most would consider "iffy"--NW201L5, NW1, and similar races carded specifically for those entries with little or no "current form."
The "L" (plus a number) is the number of qualified contenders in the race. In the group designated "L2" it means that there were two qualified contenders in each of that group of races and wagers were made on both (or whatever number indicated).
The second value in each line is cleaned ROI--no outliers, no anomalies, all values exceeding the value truncated down to 1.5 times the mean of the interquartile range of that set of values. Standard data cleaning processes.
The third value in each line is the number of races (in this example, current output, not cherry picked to make the point).
The interesting pattern is that one could conclude (with a fair degree of confidence) that races in which there is a single standout will tend to be too heavily bet (often at the last moment) to be long-term profitable. (This is a repeating pattern--not just in this small example.)
Specifically, in races in which there are TWO serious contenders, the normal human indecision in the face of uncertainty (whether real or imagined) can act in favor of those who might consider the best strategy to be, "bet them both and let the finish line sort them out."
AllTPace 0.55 108 L1 S
AllTPace 1.01 230 L2 S
AllTPace 0.88 204 L3 S
AllTPace 0.74 68 L4 S
AllTPace 0.75 110 L1 NS
AllTPace 1.03 188 L2 NS
AllTPace 0.77 237 L3 NS
AllTPace 0.76 132 L4 NS
AllTTrot 0.29 45 L1 S
AllTTrot 1.70 30 L2 S
AllTTrot 0.65 22 L1 NS
AllTTrot 1.11 48 L2 NS
AllTTrot 0.79 36 L3 NS
AllTTrot 0.66 12 L4 NS
The "S" designation is for those races most would consider "bettable"--NW2, NW3, claimers, etc. The "NS" designation is for those races most would consider "iffy"--NW201L5, NW1, and similar races carded specifically for those entries with little or no "current form."
The "L" (plus a number) is the number of qualified contenders in the race. In the group designated "L2" it means that there were two qualified contenders in each of that group of races and wagers were made on both (or whatever number indicated).
The second value in each line is cleaned ROI--no outliers, no anomalies, all values exceeding the value truncated down to 1.5 times the mean of the interquartile range of that set of values. Standard data cleaning processes.
The third value in each line is the number of races (in this example, current output, not cherry picked to make the point).
The interesting pattern is that one could conclude (with a fair degree of confidence) that races in which there is a single standout will tend to be too heavily bet (often at the last moment) to be long-term profitable. (This is a repeating pattern--not just in this small example.)
Specifically, in races in which there are TWO serious contenders, the normal human indecision in the face of uncertainty (whether real or imagined) can act in favor of those who might consider the best strategy to be, "bet them both and let the finish line sort them out."