HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 3/19

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields All but 1 of 10 races on Turf.
The feature race is #8 the BMW Hong Kong Derby @ 2000M (10F) at 4:35 AM EST

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English)
http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will all be based on a static tote analysis and will follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds.
I’ve used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.
Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the
Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #4 - #7 - #9
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns
when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) T……...2-3 W/ 11-14-1-6 ...........1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1400M (7F) T …......1-4 W/ 5-7-2-8 ………......1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1400M (7F) T............2-3 W/ 5-7...................2:00 AM EST


R#4 - 1000M (5F) T……......3-5 W/ 2-1-11……...…..2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1600M (8F) T…..…...1-2 W/ 5-12-11-10........3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1400M (7F) T….......3-4 W/ 5-1-9-7…….…..…3:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #8 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 2000M (10F) T.........1-2 W/ 5-11-13-6...........4:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 2000M (10F) T.….….1-3 W/ 2-4-5-12 ……..….4:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1200M (6F) T.….......3-2 W/ 4-10-12-5 ……....5:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1400M (7F) T.…......1-2 W/ 8-3-7-13 ……..... 5:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget! ;)

If the dividend (your return) exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, :faint:
ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners
(including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.)
are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified.
(Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

Correction

R#4 - 1000M (5F) T……....3-4 W/ 5-2-1-11……..…..2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2-3 W/ 11-14-1-6 –
Live Tote Results: 2-8-1-3 – Dutch 153% Profit Margin – HIT
Top choice $14.90 Early & Live - Placer got some decent play

[Nitro]

..............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #1 - $168,000………….$21,484,217

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1-4 W/ 5-7-2-8
Live Tote Results: 7-5-10-12 – Live Dutch 41% Profit Margin - PASS
4th choice $8.10 Early & 2nd choice Live & $94.20 QUIN BX - Winner got solid late action

[Nitro]

..............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #2 - $126,000………….$24,703,539

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2-3 W/ 5-7 -
Live Tote Results: 6-3-7-5 - Dutch 2% Profit Margin - PASS
Out Early & Live - (#7 became 2nd choice)

[Nitro]

..............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #3 - $500,000………….$ 9,866,677

[Nitro]

R#4 - 3-4 W/ 5-2-1-11 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 11-2-1-6 – Live Dutch 53% Profit Margin - HIT
6th choice $7.80 Early & 2nd choice Live & $48.60 QUIN / $246.40 TRI BX
Winner received solid betting throughout!

[Nitro]

..............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #4 - $168,000………….$24,946,392

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-2 W/ 5-12-11-10 - All of that one! (w/#7 Tote Watch - Fin 2nd)
Live Tote Results: 5-7-2-11 – Dutch 80% Profit Margin - HIT
3rd choice $11.90 Early & Live - $27.10 QUIN / $279.40 TRI BX (w/#7 the betting favorite)

[Nitro]

..............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #5 - $168,000………….$31,926,884

[PaceAdvantage]

You keep posting the handle as if it's supposed to mean something.

They have two racetracks in Hong Kong. THOROUGHBRED horse racing is the ONLY form of legal gambling in Hong Kong.

How many races do they run each year in Hong Kong? I saw 700 on one website, but don't know how accurate that is. But I'm betting it's pretty close.

They run 40,000 THOROUGHBRED races each year in the USA...add in harness and quarter horse and how many do you have?

You see where you can't compare the two in terms of betting handle per race. It's meaningless, and proves nothing. Of course the handle on a Hong Kong race is going to be monstrous

If they only ran 700 races in the USA and THOROUGHBRED horse racing were the only legal form of gambling in the USA, then I'm betting the handle per race in the USA would rival that of Hong Kong. In fact, it would probably blow it away...

[Nitro]

R#6 - 3-4 W/ 5-1-9-7 All of that one! (w/#6 Tote Watch - Fin 1st)
Live Tote Results: 6-4-3-10 – Dutch 29% Profit Margin - PASS
Out Early & 3rd choice $7.10 Live - - $16.80 QUIN / $92.20 TRI BX (w/#6 the 2nd betting choice)

[Nitro]

..............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #6 - $168,000………….$31,040,686

[Nitro]

You keep posting the handle as if it's supposed to mean something.

They have two racetracks in Hong Kong. THOROUGHBRED horse racing is the ONLY form of legal gambling in Hong Kong.

How many races do they run each year in Hong Kong? I saw 700 on one website, but don't know how accurate that is. But I'm betting it's pretty close.

They run 40,000 THOROUGHBRED races each year in the USA...add in harness and quarter horse and how many do you have?

You see where you can't compare the two in terms of betting handle per race. It's meaningless, and proves nothing. Of course the handle on a Hong Kong race is going to be monstrous

If they only ran 700 races in the USA and THOROUGHBRED horse racing were the only legal form of gambling in the USA, then I'm betting the handle per race in the USA would rival that of Hong Kong. In fact, it would probably blow it away...

Who's making comparisons? There is no comparison!
With 84 days of racing and averaging 10 races per day is about 840 races per year.

Last year they had a total handle of over 15 Billion US dollars.
The total handle for ALL of the tracks combined in North America was only 13 Billion.

BTW its not the only form of gambling in HK. They have computers too and play Australia, Japan, Singapore, New Zealand, Korea as well as other tracks around the world.

They also offer quality races each race day. No Maidens, No Claimers, No Allowance - ONLY Handicaps & Stakes.

Night & Day from racing in the U.S.:ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

Last year they had a total handle of over 15 Billion US dollars.
The total handle for ALL of the tracks combined in North America was only 13 Billion.Considering that THOROUGHBRED racing is NOT the ONLY form of LEGAL gambling in the USA, it's pretty amazing that total handle in USA is only 2 billion off from Hong Kong.

Everything else I wrote about still stands.

Everything else being equal (including all the problems with US T-bred racing...drugs...etc), if we only ran 700 races in the USA and t-breds were the only form of legal gambling in the US, we would blow away Hong Kong numbers.

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 5-11-13-6 (w/#10 Tote Watch - Fin 1st)!
Live Tote Results: 10-14-2-4 – Dutch 48% Profit Margin - PASS
Out Early & Top (Watch) choice $5.30 Live – (#10 betting favorite with Moreira up for another!)

[Nitro]

Considering that THOROUGHBRED racing is NOT the ONLY form of LEGAL gambling in the USA, it's pretty amazing that total handle in USA is only 2 billion off from Hong Kong.

Everything else I wrote about still stands.

Everything else being equal (including all the problems with US T-bred racing...drugs...etc if we only ran 700 races in the USA and t-breds were the only form of legal gambling in the US, we would blow away Hong Kong numbers.
It's too bad that will never happen unfortunately! The U.S. had the potential to offer the BEST product anywhere. They've blown it from one end of the game to the other!

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-3 W/ 2-4-5-12 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 1-3-2-5 - Dutch 31% Profit Margin - PASS
Top choice $3.60 Early & Live & $10.80 Quin / $128.60 TRI – COLD !

[Nitro]

R#9 - 3-2 W/ 4-10-12-5
Live Tote Results: 10-2-7-14 - Dutch 67% Profit Margin - OUT
4th choice $48.00 Early & Live & $347.00 QUIN – BANG!:ThmbUp:

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1-2 W/ 8-3-7-13
Live Tote Results: 1-4-7-9 - Dutch 44% Profit Margin - PASS
Top choice $3.60 Early & Live

[Nitro]

……….....….Purse Value……….Total Handle: (in U.S. $)
Race #1 - $168,000……...…….$21,484,217
Race #2 - $126,000……...…….$24,703,539
Race #3 - $500,000……...…….$ 9,866,677
Race #4 - $168,000………...….$24,946,392
Race #5 - $168,000………...….$31,926,884
Race #6 - $168,000………...….$31,040,686
Race #7 - $247,000………...….$31,838,445
Race #8 - $3,600,000……...….$40,777,101
Race #9 - $247,000………...….$36,043,587
Race #10- $350,000…….….....$38,129,799

Total Handle All Races……..$290,757,331

[lamboguy]

http://www.onlinebetting.com/legal/hong-kong/