More Useless Trivia

[traynor]

Something to consider (possibly) for those who believe in (or advocate) "value wagering."

On average, 86% of the pace winners at Monticello pay LESS than $6, and only
7% pay >= $6 and <$10. Only 14% of winners pay $6 or more, only 6-7% pay $10 or more.

Monticello PACE:
[LessThan6-0.86] [6to10-0.07] [10to16-0.03] [16to22-0.02] [Over22-0.03]

Monticello TROT:
[LessThan6-0.85] [6to10-0.08] [10to16-0.04] [16to22-Insufficient Data] [Over22-Insufficient Data]


In contrast, 77% of the pace winners at The Meadows pay LESS than $6, and 11% pay >= $6 and <$10. And 23% of winners pay $6 or more, 12% pay $10 or more.

The Meadows PACE:
[LessThan6-0.77] [6to10-0.11] [10to16-0.06] [16to22-0.02] [Over22-0.04]

The Meadows TROT:
[LessThan6-0.81] [6to10-0.09] [10to16-0.04] [16to22-Insufficient Data] [Over22-0.05]

It should be clear why it is easier to turn a profit at The Meadows than at Monticello (unless you are picking a LOT of those low-priced winners).

[tyler522]

Can u post info for Yonkers? Thanks in advance

[traynor]

Can u post info for Yonkers? Thanks in advance

Yonkers PACE:
[LessThan6-0.81] [6to10-0.08] [10to16-0.06] [16to22-0.02] [Over22-0.03]

Yonkers TROT:
[LessThan6-0.75] [6to10-0.09] [10to16-0.07] [16to22-Insufficient Data] [Over22-Insufficient Data]

("Insufficient Data" means it happens so rarely that it isn't worthwhile to consider as an option.)

[tyler522]

Thanks again

[traynor]

This is example only. The patterns are fairly consistent across other tracks. In short, agonizing over trivial wobbles in speed from one race to the next in the hope of divining which entry is going to win a particular race may not be as useful as some would have you believe.

"Speed" may be the best predictor if it is all you have. I suggest the time spent "analyzing speed" and "analyzing pace" might be more profitably invested in searching for more predictive attributes. That assumes, of course, that the goal is winning--not just playing.

Yonkers PACE races:
56% of 1462 Winners were FASTER in LAST than TODAY
15% of 1462 Winners were SAME in LAST as TODAY
29% of 1462 Winners were SLOWER in LAST than TODAY

52% of 1462 Winners were FASTER in 2NDBACK than TODAY
16% of 1462 Winners were SAME in 2NDBACK as TODAY
32% of 1462 Winners were SLOWER in 2NDBACK than TODAY

52% of 1462 Winners were FASTER in 3RDBACK than TODAY
14% of 1462 Winners were SAME in 3RDBACK as TODAY
35% of 1462 Winners were SLOWER in 3RDBACK than TODAY

40% of 5219 NONWinners were FASTER in LAST than TODAY
16% of 5219 NONWinners were SAME in LAST as TODAY
44% of 5219 NONWinners were SLOWER in LAST than TODAY

36% of 5219 NONWinners were FASTER in 2NDBACK than TODAY
14% of 5219 NONWinners were SAME in 2NDBACK as TODAY
49% of 5219 NONWinners were SLOWER in 2NDBACK than TODAY

37% of 5219 NONWinners were FASTER in 3RDBACK than TODAY
14% of 5219 NONWinners were SAME in 3RDBACK as TODAY
49% of 5219 NONWinners were SLOWER in 3RDBACK than TODAY