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PowerUpPaynter
03-16-2017, 08:18 AM
Good day,

Didn't Afleet Alex tank the Rebel real bad like Irish War Cry did the Fountain Of Youth and still bounce back to be a good horse? Maybe its not over for Irish War Cry.

Was thinking of horses who tanked and bounced back. Anyone know any others?

Spalding No!
03-16-2017, 09:11 AM
Good day,

Didn't Afleet Alex tank the Rebel real bad like Irish War Cry did the Fountain Of Youth and still bounce back to be a good horse? Maybe its not over for Irish War Cry.

Was thinking of horses who tanked and bounced back. Anyone know any others?
I posted about this very thing in the "Your Top 5" thread and listed a few more aside from Afleet Alex.

However, if I recall correctly, Afleet Alex came out of the Rebel with a lung infection, so there was a distinct excuse for the flop in his case.

menifee
03-16-2017, 10:21 AM
Good day,

Didn't Afleet Alex tank the Rebel real bad like Irish War Cry did the Fountain Of Youth and still bounce back to be a good horse? Maybe its not over for Irish War Cry.

Was thinking of horses who tanked and bounced back. Anyone know any others?

Thunder Gulch. Won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Flopped in the Blue Grass. As a result went off at 24-1 in the Derby. Horses have bad days. If you are an Irish War Cry fan, you should be happy as you will get a nice price in his next start.

CincyHorseplayer
03-16-2017, 12:04 PM
A lot of viable conversation on easy trips and running style but it could be he simply did so much, so fast that a regression practically had to happen. I am highly interested in what he can do next out and think he will give a solid account of himself. I too look for historical comparisons but what happened last race is more of a universal horse problem. Just a downturn in the form cycle. It happens. And more often with younger horses. My 2 cents.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-16-2017, 01:57 PM
A lot of viable conversation on easy trips and running style but it could be he simply did so much, so fast that a regression practically had to happen. I am highly interested in what he can do next out and think he will give a solid account of himself. I too look for historical comparisons but what happened last race is more of a universal horse problem. Just a downturn in the form cycle. It happens. And more often with younger horses. My 2 cents.

100% agree.

Next out will likely tell the IWC story regarding the Triple Crown trail.

yankeelpn
03-16-2017, 02:10 PM
But, Thunder Gulch made a mild rally for 4th in the Blue Grass. IWC did nothing to impress me in that race.

letswastemoney
03-16-2017, 02:55 PM
Thunder Gulch was probably affected by the old Keeneland speed bias. I haven't studied the race though, so it's just a guess.

Andrick
03-16-2017, 03:39 PM
Thunder Gulch also got a 101 BSF in the Blue Grass, which is the same 101 figure he earned in winning the Florida Derby in his previous race. It was also tied as the 2nd highest BSF he had earned at that point in his career after 9 races behind only the 105 he earned in the Fountain of Youth.

Irish War Cry went from a 101 BSF in the Holy Bull to a 63 in his last race. A 38 point drop on the figure and 20 points worse than he had ever ran so far during his career.

PowerUpPaynter
03-16-2017, 09:02 PM
Is Irish War Cry headed to the Wood Memorial?

menifee
03-17-2017, 03:34 AM
Thunder Gulch also got a 101 BSF in the Blue Grass, which is the same 101 figure he earned in winning the Florida Derby in his previous race. It was also tied as the 2nd highest BSF he had earned at that point in his career after 9 races behind only the 105 he earned in the Fountain of Youth.

Irish War Cry went from a 101 BSF in the Holy Bull to a 63 in his last race. A 38 point drop on the figure and 20 points worse than he had ever ran so far during his career.

Good point about Thunder Gulch. I have a theory about why IWC did not run well and think he will run well next start. A more recent example is Shackleford. He ran a 58 in the FOY and then a 93 in the FD and ran 4th in the Derby before winning the Preakness.

If I were the owner, I would rather have my horse toss a 63 and stink the joint up then run similar performances to their last start.

For example, all the horses that ran behind McCracken and Tapwrit in the Tampa preps. They just keep running the same races. They are not going to get much better or be able to get the distance. Same with El Areeb and a lot of the horses on the FG and Oaklawn roads. At least with IWC, you know something went drastically wrong and still don't know the ceiling.

rsetup
03-17-2017, 12:33 PM
At least with IWC, you know something went drastically wrong and still don't know the ceiling.

If what you mean is that he didn't get a PERFECT TRIP, then I agree. For some horses, not getting an absolutely perfect trip is 'something [going] drastically wrong'. He's real game :lol: