PDA

View Full Version : G2 Rebel: R10 Oaklawn 3/18


Lemon Drop Husker
03-15-2017, 10:06 PM
The Kentucky Derby trail is starting to heat up, especially after the loss of Mastery :pout:, and some other favorites falling hard in other preps.

Oaklawn gets into high gear this weekend in their major prep for the Arkansas Derby with the 8.5 panel Rebel. And this looks to be a pretty good edition of this race. Enough said, who do we got?

:1: Silver Bullion: He has won here, but the company hasn't been all that inspiring. DWL hasn't had a serious contender in a while, and this one looks like a longshot in the Rebel.

:2: Uncontested: First question is will he get the lead. Second question is, if he doesn't, can he hit the board? A couple of bullet works are expected for him. Simply put, he looks like a 1 turn sprinter and would need to make a major shift in tendencies to beat this field, much less hit the board.

:3: Sonneteer: Well...., he is a Maiden. Then again, he has at least hit the board 5 of 8 times. And therein lies the problem. A 3YO with races under his belt, including 3 weeks ago, just doesn't offer up much hope of the massive improvement needed to win a race like this.

:4: Petrov: Hit the Exacta in all 4 career starts in pretty good fields. He was right there and able to win last out, but was much the 2nd best. Improving colt that still needs to get better IMO.

:5: Untrapped: Has ran in some really good races. Another that has hit the board in all of 'em. May have some upside left and Asmussen is a legend at Oaklawn. I'm a sucker for Trappe Shot's, but this one has had trouble before and may be due for a good trip. Interesting and can't be dismissed from the top spot.

:6: Malagacy: 7 lengths and 15 lengths. Hard to look past a 2 for 2 horse with those kinds of victories. Sure, the last was a 6 horse field, but it was solid. Distance is obviously the question here for anybody and everybody. Then again after pulling away at 6.5Fs, he only has to go 1 more, right? Obvious speed influence to a field loaded with speed.

:7: American Anthem: Shipped here after getting beat by Gormley who didn't show an ounce of anything last weekend against Mastery. Just another speed horse in a race full of speed? Smith/Baffert gonna be way overlaid. Bullets galore, he either wires, or is a pure bust. You wanna take 9/5?

:8: Silver Dust: Getting better. Lanerie. Must include on exotics in this speedfest. Has always found some kind of trouble. Sneaky one that could be a solid underlay at monster odds.

:9: Appalachian Gem: 2 HOF's hook up with Gary Stevens and Jack Van Berg. Hard not to root for this one. In the end, he is overmatched. He should keep coming though, and could fill out a Tri or Super.

:10: Royal Mo: This may be Uncle Mo's best underling this year. And yet again, we have a front-runner from the 10 hole at Oaklawn filled with other speed. Good luck. IMO, you'll have to believe in a change of tactics from the connections to take back and work out a trip. Otherwise, a sure fire overlay pass.

:11: Lookin At Lee: Only colt in here who ran in the BC Juvenile has done little in his 4 Graded Stakes races to date. On a good note, he should be getting a hot pace in front of him opening up a chance for his late run. Asmussen is solid at Oaklawn, and Santana is a very solid unknown off of the national radar. Does he put it all together in his 2nd race as a 3YO with 7 races already under his belt? Out of the 11 hole? Not likely.

Summary: Fully expect a crazy race. Looking at :5: Untrapped right now, and looking to get 4/1 to 5/1. Exotics may well be the way to play this one as slot machine numbers could fill out any of the top 3.

Andrick
03-15-2017, 10:47 PM
There's still a couple of days to change my mind, but as of now I may bet the :4: Petrov to win since the price should be good, and then use him along with the :7: American Anthem, :8: Silver Dust (underneath), and :11: Lookin at Lee (underneath) in exactas and tris. I don't really have an interest in any of the others right now.

señorclipclop
03-16-2017, 12:25 AM
Spot on with Untrapped. He could very well be undefeated at FG this year with better trips.

PowerUpPaynter
03-16-2017, 08:15 AM
I want Petrov to finish 2nd and keep sliding under the radar until derby day. He has a shot to Giacomo the derby.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-16-2017, 10:04 AM
I want Petrov to finish 2nd and keep sliding under the radar until derby day. He has a shot to Giacomo the derby.

OK.

Big problem though. Petrov isn't a 1 run deep closer like Giacomo. Maybe he changes up styles this weekend, but hard to see him coming from off the pace to win anything right now.

Vince Stone
03-16-2017, 08:45 PM
You mentioned Uncontested, and if he can get the lead. What do you look at in the PPS to see if the can get the lead besides the running line? Fractions of passed races?

boys at tosconova
03-16-2017, 08:59 PM
this is a deep field and there should be some value in the exotics. there's a few in here that most will discount, but can step up if good enough or the right scenario presents itself.

as much as you can pass on lukas, because many others look better, the horse is moving forward. odds should be high.

uncontested ran a weird race. can you take it onface value he just doesn;t want to go that far?. hard to forgive as he may not like the distance, but he buried petrov in the smarty.

can't dismiss sonneteer as well....if you like royal mo.....this one only lost to royal mo by a little over 1L twice. odds will be 50-1.

petrov-could get better..ran a nice one last one. won't be 8-1 this time and this field is stronger

PowerUpPaynter
03-16-2017, 09:07 PM
OK.

Big problem though. Petrov isn't a 1 run deep closer like Giacomo. Maybe he changes up styles this weekend, but hard to see him coming from off the pace to win anything right now.

I think he can switch up his style a little, Exaggerator did. I think he would get better sitting back a little, he keeps being the horse to keep pressing the pace. I think he will benefit quite a bit coming from off the pace.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-16-2017, 09:15 PM
You mentioned Uncontested, and if he can get the lead. What do you look at in the PPS to see if the can get the lead besides the running line? Fractions of passed races?

Has led at the 1st and 2nd call of every race he has been in which has included 3 different tracks. Has ran 2 bullets leading into this one, thus I have no reason to believe that he won't get to (or want to) be on the front.

Every time this horse has trailed he has lost ground. Why would you not send him? Undoubtedly a pure frontrunner till I see anything different.

He is a need the lead horse. Period. Throw the :4::6::7: in with him, and we have a hot pace.

Personally, I see the :2::6::7: in a pace struggle. I see the :6::7: as faster than the :2: and ultimately on top after 4Fs. I then see the :2: wilting into oblivion after 6Fs and the :6::7: dueling to the top of the stretch opening it up for pure closers or off the pace types.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-16-2017, 09:17 PM
I think he can switch up his style a little, Exaggerator did. I think he would get better sitting back a little, he keeps being the horse to keep pressing the pace. I think he will benefit quite a bit coming from off the pace.

I agree.

I think they can change this guy up and bring him from off the pace if not even mid-pack. My biggest problem is that I think he will be overbet to 3/1-4/1 type status in which you need 8/1 to fire on him.

PowerUpPaynter
03-16-2017, 09:26 PM
i dont even care about his odds this week. Im starring at that 73-1 futures pool ticket...

boys at tosconova
03-16-2017, 09:27 PM
this is a deep field and there should be some value in the exotics. there's a few in here that most will discount, but can step up if good enough or the right scenario presents itself.

as much as you can pass on lukas, because many others look better, the horse is moving forward. odds should be high.

uncontested ran a weird race. can you take it onface value he just doesn;t want to go that far?. hard to forgive as he may not like the distance, but he buried petrov in the smarty.

can't dismiss sonneteer as well....if you like royal mo.....this one only lost to royal mo by a little over 1L twice. odds will be 50-1.

petrov-could get better..ran a nice one last one. won't be 8-1 this time and this field is stronger

untrapped- don't know where his odds will be, but i'm sure it will be lower than you think. might improve. seems like a horse people will be willing to use mainly because of positioning, looks a lil better, and potential pace. one of many that could be in the number.

malagacy- nothing new here folks. i'm in the same boat as everyone else w/ him. don't know what to w/ the horse, although my better half says let him beat you going 2 turns vs this field..which is what almost everyone is doing as well...possible low odds makes the toss easier

american anthem- man..this horse could really burn some money in here. can't say i was ever pro gormley as well. i think you have to put him on your ticket but he doesn't have to be his best and he might be compromised

boys at tosconova
03-16-2017, 09:42 PM
this is a deep field and there should be some value in the exotics. there's a few in here that most will discount, but can step up if good enough or the right scenario presents itself.

as much as you can pass on lukas, because many others look better, the horse is moving forward. odds should be high.

uncontested ran a weird race. can you take it onface value he just doesn;t want to go that far?. hard to forgive as he may not like the distance, but he buried petrov in the smarty.

can't dismiss sonneteer as well....if you like royal mo.....this one only lost to royal mo by a little over 1L twice. odds will be 50-1.

petrov-could get better..ran a nice one last one. won't be 8-1 this time and this field is stronger

untrapped- don't know where his odds will be, but i'm sure it will be lower than you think. might improve. seems like a horse people will be willing to use mainly because of positioning, looks a lil better, and potential pace. one of many that could be in the number.

malagacy- nothing new here folks. i'm in the same boat as everyone else w/ him. don't know what to w/ the horse, although my better half says let him beat you going 2 turns vs this field..which is what almost everyone is doing as well...possible low odds makes the toss easier

american anthem- man..this horse could really burn some money in here. can't say i was ever pro gormley as well. i think you have to put him on your ticket but he doesn't have to be his best and he might be compromised

silver dust- seems like everyone's sleeper pick. 2nd off the bench after a race were he had some trouble. would be stupid think he can't move forward once again...especially w/ a pace to run at. yet another one to consider.

appalachian gem- have to let this one go. could improve but everyone else seems to look better. can't go 11 deep.....haaaa

royal mo- might take mo money than he should be but he's taken care of binness. 2nd race off of layoff after a nice win off the bench.
mo might be 5-1 and sonnet 50-1

lookin at lee- finished nicely off the layoff to edge silver dust. seem to run better than dust but dust encountered some problems. problem i have is he was just so far back and closed to beat scrubs. obv should be tighter..doesn''t seem like you get a square price though

Lemon Drop Husker
03-16-2017, 09:42 PM
untrapped- don't know where his odds will be, but i'm sure it will be lower than you think. might improve. seems like a horse people will be willing to use mainly because of positioning, looks a lil better, and potential pace. one of many that could be in the number.

malagacy- nothing new here folks. i'm in the same boat as everyone else w/ him. don't know what to w/ the horse, although my better half says let him beat you going 2 turns vs this field..which is what almost everyone is doing as well...possible low odds makes the toss easier

american anthem- man..this horse could really burn some money in here. can't say i was ever pro gormley as well. i think you have to put him on your ticket but he doesn't have to be his best and he might be compromised

I see Untrapped as 4th/5th favorite and off odds around 7/1.

American Anthem will be ridiculously overbet with his hype and the Baffert factor in his favor. 9/5 to 2/1 or so.

Then Malagacy, Uncontested, Royal Mo, and Petrov may well get more money than Untrapped. Wouldn't be surprised if Malgacy goes off as the favroite. Public loves undefeated horses in big races.

Bennie
03-17-2017, 11:39 PM
Just playing a double with 5 and 7 to the 3 Dan the go man and another horse yet to be decided. Then if 10-1 or higher post time, I will play a small w/p on the 8 Silver Dust. was looking at the 11th for possible plays besides the 3 and saw the 8 horse comments - trainer 28% drop off win and horse moves up in class from last race:confused:

boys at tosconova
03-18-2017, 01:42 AM
lets say the 1 is cheap. the 2 won't last..let's go to the 8 and 11. i hate tossing horses like this because it's easy to expect more. but both were just so far back w/o that much. if both or either finish 3/4th it would be successful...9 too cheap as well..on to the 6. if you watch malagacy you'll want to bet him. but if you don't you can toss him for some plausible reasons.

that leaves us w/ 345710.......if youy toss the 10/3 that leaves you w/ the 3 favs 7-4-5......haaaaa. so much for a price...maybe if it come in 54..

Robert Fischer
03-18-2017, 11:43 AM
:2: Uncontested: First question is will he get the lead. Second question is, if he doesn't, can he hit the board? A couple of bullet works are expected for him. Simply put, he looks like a 1 turn sprinter and would need to make a major shift in tendencies to beat this field, much less hit the board.

Potential to heat up the early-mid pace.

:4: Petrov: Hit the Exacta in all 4 career starts in pretty good fields. He was right there and able to win last out, but was much the 2nd best. Improving colt that still needs to get better IMO.

May be 2nd most likely winner, and highest value.

:5: Untrapped: Has ran in some really good races. Another that has hit the board in all of 'em. May have some upside left and Asmussen is a legend at Oaklawn. I'm a sucker for Trappe Shot's, but this one has had trouble before and may be due for a good trip. Interesting and can't be dismissed from the top spot.

Wasn't a big fan, but should finish in the top half of the field, possibly a board spot. Could even win with a dream meltdown and a Petrov dud.

:6: Malagacy: 7 lengths and 15 lengths. Hard to look past a 2 for 2 horse with those kinds of victories. Sure, the last was a 6 horse field, but it was solid. Distance is obviously the question here for anybody and everybody. Then again after pulling away at 6.5Fs, he only has to go 1 more, right? Obvious speed influence to a field loaded with speed.

Gallop-out disappointed me. Aside from One Liner, Pletcher hasn't been as eye-popping as usual to me. This guy can win, but I'm expecting him to fold. Could heat up the pace, similar to Uncontested.

:7: American Anthem: Shipped here after getting beat by Gormley who didn't show an ounce of anything last weekend against Mastery. Just another speed horse in a race full of speed? Smith/Baffert gonna be way overlaid. Bullets galore, he either wires, or is a pure bust. You wanna take 9/5?

Gormley looked like a million bucks and ran well until both horses hung a bit in the stretch. I can't knock AA because Gormley declined in a later race. Still, it's clear that AA is not an epic superstar in the Pharoah or Arrogate mold. He is dangerous as a horse that may improve at a distance. Baffert has had horses like Pioneerof the Nile and Bodemeister run 1st or 2nd in these 3yo races, improve with distance and class, and end up being 1st or 2nd in some triple crown series races.

Tough to take 8/5 or whatever on a trainer pattern, but Baffert is Baffert.


:10: Royal Mo: This may be Uncle Mo's best underling this year. And yet again, we have a front-runner from the 10 hole at Oaklawn filled with other speed. Good luck. IMO, you'll have to believe in a change of tactics from the connections to take back and work out a trip. Otherwise, a sure fire overlay pass.

One of the handful of talents in here. 14 seconds to the 1st turn is normally plenty of time to get over, but a patient ride would leave Victor 6 wide, due to the expected cavalry charge.
.

CincyHorseplayer
03-18-2017, 01:16 PM
Certainly seems like it should be hostile up front. The sprinter will definitely make it miserable for all. But someone will wise up and stalk and it'll probably be oppressive favorite(by post time) American Anthem. Slop or not that was impressive in 1st route. But off a 2 mos layoff with the surroundings I can't see even that trip being easy for him so he can beat me. As can any of the other speed. Which is very talented. Malagacy IMO if he can reduplicate his sprint numbers at 2 turns could bury this field.

I am looking at Petrov and Untrapped. The latter because he had a simila stalk and big finish after posting up a slow half themselves. I am more interested in how well he runs as a reflection on Girvin and that race than betting him here. I think he will have too much to do in the stretch. Petrov while running 2nd to one of the best performances of the year posted in my mind the best performance in this race. Has good stalking ability and pace and IMO should run his race excepting a regression off a lifetime race. He will be my bet at 3-1 and up and that's a solid price.

Outside interests mainly in curiosity as to how Royal Mo and Lookin at Lee run.

:4: win

Ex :4::5: w :4::5::6::7::10::11:

Will price out some more with :5::6::7: and underneath.

GaryG
03-18-2017, 03:22 PM
:4: PETROV to win

eactas
:4::7:
:4::2:

Robert Fischer
03-18-2017, 06:18 PM
dime supers

Baffert 7 w/ either of the 2 Board-horses:4:, :5:
1st
:7: /:3::4::5::6::10::11: /:3::4::5::6::10::11: / :4::5:=$4
:7: /:3::4::5::6::10::11: / :4::5: /:2::3::4::5::6::10::11:=$5
:7: / :4::5: /:3::4::5::6::10::11: /:2::3::4::5::6::10::11:=$5

2nd
:2::4::5::6::10::11: /:7: /:3::4::5::6::10::11: / :4::5:=$4.20
:2::4::5::6::10::11: /:7: / :4::5: /:2::3::4::5::6::10::11:=$5
4,5 / 7 / 3 4 5 6 10 11 / 2 3 4 5 6 10 11 =$5


Both board horses
1st
7/45/45/2361011 =$1
7/45/361011/45 =$.80
7/361011/45/45 =$.80
2nd
45/7/45/2361011 =$1
45/7/361011/45 =$.80
2361011/7/45/45 =$1

3rd
2361011/45/7/45 =$1
45/45/7/2361011 =$1
45/361011/7/45 =$.80

Wagered $36.40

Tom
03-18-2017, 06:37 PM
:5: Untrapped
:7: American Anthem
:4: Petrov

Lemon Drop Husker
03-18-2017, 07:43 PM
Love all the early heat on the :6: and :7: :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TuPell1Y0c

jocko699
03-18-2017, 07:44 PM
Keying #11 Lookin at Lee

boys at tosconova
03-18-2017, 08:05 PM
kind of figured the exacta possible prices would be around here

7-4 $14
7-5 $21
7-6 $15

Robert Fischer
03-18-2017, 08:08 PM
:6:backup bet
$1 exacta
:4::5: w/ :3::4::5::6::8::11: = $10

boys at tosconova
03-18-2017, 08:09 PM
i hear the 2 has an equipment change. seems like they want to put some of the blame on the backwards effort on the horse not being able to breathe. we will see. 14-1

Robert Fischer
03-18-2017, 08:11 PM
good race

Had 2nd thoughts about American Anthem.
Liked Sonneter enough to use in all my wagers, but I figured AA would be closer to the pace and Malagacy would tire along with him.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-18-2017, 08:12 PM
:6: Malagacy fo' real :ThmbUp:

Robert Fischer
03-18-2017, 08:18 PM
$1,000 for a dime super

Lemon Drop Husker
03-18-2017, 08:22 PM
Maybe the :7: American Anthem didn't have it today, but when Mike Smith "positions" him 5 wide on the backstretch after a poor start and a rush up to get into position, one has to have some questions. Yowza.

VigorsTheGrey
03-18-2017, 08:23 PM
Can someone post the result...

CincyHorseplayer
03-18-2017, 08:25 PM
$1,000 for a dime super

Nicely done!

Lemon Drop Husker
03-18-2017, 08:28 PM
Can someone post the result...

:6: Malagacy
:3: Sonneteer
:5: Untrapped
:4: Petrov

Lemon Drop Husker
03-18-2017, 08:30 PM
Nicely done!

Looking at his tickets, I don't see that he had it. :pout:

Please tell us you had that RF.

Robert Fischer
03-18-2017, 08:31 PM
Nicely done!

Didn't have it. I keyed the 7. :(

Would have it 3 times if I did the same key with the 6, but I figured they would be similarly placed, and chose the 7 of the two.


...
:7: /:3::4::5::6::10::11: /:3::4::5::6::10::11: / :4::5:=$4
:7: /:3::4::5::6::10::11: / :4::5: /:2::3::4::5::6::10::11:=$5

...
...
7/361011/45/45 =$.80
...

jocko699
03-18-2017, 08:33 PM
:ThmbDown: Congrats to the connections of Malagacy

PowerUpPaynter
03-18-2017, 08:34 PM
Petrov totally got jammed up in traffic in the stretch. He ran the 2nd best race today.

Vince Stone
03-18-2017, 10:49 PM
Tough place photo for me. If Petrov got the bob he most likely already have enough points for the Derby. The point might be moot though. The figs came back low. He did have some traffic trouble around the far turn, but looked like he tired AGAIN in the stretch. Most likely doesn't want to go this far.

ReplayRandall
03-18-2017, 10:52 PM
Rebel Stakes = No Derby winner from this group..:ThmbDown:

Lemon Drop Husker
03-18-2017, 11:07 PM
Tough place photo for me. If Petrov got the bob he most likely already have enough points for the Derby. The point might be moot though. The figs came back low. He did have some traffic trouble around the far turn, but looked like he tired AGAIN in the stretch. Most likely doesn't want to go this far.

Yep, :4: and :5: being closers in this field had every opportunity to do so at the top of the stretch. And did nothing.

A way too much raced Maiden outdid them.

Tough to see much coming out of this one. Not fast enough at 8.5 panels in a field that was falling apart.

f2tornado
03-18-2017, 11:10 PM
Rebel Stakes = No Derby winner from this group..:ThmbDown:

I am inclined to agree. No obvious Derby favorite at this time. I'm smelling those Derby payoffs of old this year.

CincyHorseplayer
03-18-2017, 11:11 PM
Didn't have it. I keyed the 7. :(

Would have it 3 times if I did the same key with the 6, but I figured they would be similarly placed, and chose the 7 of the two.

Oh man I thought when you put up the 1K note it was all you!

You know it has only happened to me once this year and once after the Breeder's Cup but when there is even a contender that has over 50-1 odds I switch gears and will focus bets around it in addition to my other plays. Easy for me to say now but wow Robert 99-1 and you thought enough of this one to put it on the tickets! Tough beat.

CincyHorseplayer
03-18-2017, 11:13 PM
Petrov totally got jammed up in traffic in the stretch. He ran the 2nd best race today.

Yep. Not extreme but subtle damage. There's that and we got another forwardly placed 3yo with eyes on the Derby. I collected nothing today but feel these were 2 victories!

rsetup
03-18-2017, 11:22 PM
Yep. Not extreme but subtle damage. There's that and we got another forwardly placed 3yo with eyes on the Derby. I collected nothing today but feel these were 2 victories!


Really? :rolleyes:

You think there's a chance that this horse gets an even better trip in one of the major races? Good luck with that. :ThmbUp:

Robert Fischer
03-18-2017, 11:29 PM
You know it has only happened to me once this year and once after the Breeder's Cup but when there is even a contender that has over 50-1 odds I switch gears and will focus bets around it in addition to my other plays. Easy for me to say now but wow Robert 99-1 and you thought enough of this one to put it on the tickets! Tough beat.

That makes good sense.

working that out on paper now.


edit// - looks like I could have used the :4:,:5: key along with keying the >>50-1shot :3: in all four slots, AND included the 7 in my 'contenders field' , all for about $60. Would have been smarter, in general, + I could have done it in addition to the chalky key that I posted in this thread, if I felt so strongly about the :7:.

3/ 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5
2 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 3 / 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5
2 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 3 / 4 5

3/ 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5 / 2 4 5 6 7 10 11
2 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 3 / 4 5 / 2 4 5 6 7 10 11
2 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5 / 3

3 / 4 5 / 4 5 6 10 11 / 2 4 5 6 7 10 11
2 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5 / 3 / 2 4 5 6 7 10 11
2 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5 / 3 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 3

4 5 / 3 / 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 2 4 5 6 7 10 11
4 5 / 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 3 / 2 4 5 6 7 10 11
4 5 / 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 4 5 6 7 10 11 / 3

- about $5 each row x 12 rows (may have a few typos, but u get the idea)

CincyHorseplayer
03-18-2017, 11:33 PM
Really? :rolleyes:

You think there's a chance that this horse gets an even better trip in one of the major races? Good luck with that. :ThmbUp:

Not all about the trip. I thought he might regress off a lifetime effort anyway. The trip just hides him for me. That probably doesn't register in your dipshit-go-round of a mind though:cool:

Mulerider
03-18-2017, 11:44 PM
That makes good sense.

working that out on paper now.

Robert, what put the 3 on your radar? I certainly didn't see that coming, and I've seen Richard Eramia pull similar feats with horses everyone considered "no-hopers" many, many times at LaD.

Personally, I thought Malagacy would fold at the distance. I had a 4-5 exacta box.

Mule

Robert Fischer
03-18-2017, 11:55 PM
Robert, what put the 3 on your radar? I certainly didn't see that coming, and I've seen Richard Eramia pull similar feats with horses everyone considered "no-hopers" many, many times at LaD.

Personally, I thought Malagacy would fold at the distance. I had a 4-5 exacta box.

Mule

I watched his races, and he closed well in some of them. I'm also big on trainer patterns, and Desormeaux has had a couple decent stretch runners in preps in recent years (can't name them, but remember them).
oh yea , "Exaggerator"
Also thought the pace would be hot.
Not in love, but he's 99/1+, and could hit the board. Thought he was real similar to the :11: Lookin at Lee in this same race (11-1), and he had a better post position, and about 6X less money on him.

PowerUpPaynter
03-18-2017, 11:55 PM
Tough place photo for me. If Petrov got the bob he most likely already have enough points for the Derby. The point might be moot though. The figs came back low. He did have some traffic trouble around the far turn, but looked like he tired AGAIN in the stretch. Most likely doesn't want to go this far.

I dont know, he ran the last 1/16 just as fast as Malagacy. I think he could be one of those horses to 'clunk up' in the bottom end of derby exotics at a price

arsignman
03-20-2017, 03:49 PM
It was a fantastic race and I thought Petrov had ran second even after I watch rerun on TV monitor at the track. The final photo showed he ran 4th. He came out of the race in good order and likely will run in the Arkansas Derby !!!

Fager Fan
03-20-2017, 06:18 PM
Shackleford was a blue collar horse, so his son may be as well, but look at a conformation shot of this colt. That's not the build of a 1 1/4 mile horse. I bet his best distance will be like daddy and around 1 mile.