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View Full Version : Don't you love when horses who sit off the pace


stlseeeek
03-13-2017, 08:31 PM
usually about 5-10 lengths off the pace on average fractions, suddenly are running bottom claiming harness fractions and staying 15-20 lengths off of 24 3/5 25 1/5 fractions

Then around the turn, they are so far back, that they can't even get a piece of the super.

It's actually embarrassing, and i'm seeing it more and more.


Although my new favorite, is when a race is full of speed, they let the favorite clear, then the other speed horses create a wall, about 3-4 lengths back, and stay together heading into turn, so any horse not near pace has to go 4-6 wide, losing all ground as favorite skips around the track.

These speed horses, who go 22 flat to 22 1/5 are sitting 3-4 lengths off of a 23 3/5. lol

EMD4ME
03-13-2017, 08:46 PM
What tracks have you seen this at? (Sincere question asking for a breakdown of what tracks lead the way)

JustRalph
03-13-2017, 08:54 PM
usually about 5-10 lengths off the pace on average fractions, suddenly are running bottom claiming harness fractions and staying 15-20 lengths off of 24 3/5 25 1/5 fractions

Then around the turn, they are so far back, that they can't even get a piece of the super.

It's actually embarrassing, and i'm seeing it more and more.


Although my new favorite, is when a race is full of speed, they let the favorite clear, then the other speed horses create a wall, about 3-4 lengths back, and stay together heading into turn, so any horse not near pace has to go 4-6 wide, losing all ground as favorite skips around the track.

These speed horses, who go 22 flat to 22 1/5 are sitting 3-4 lengths off of a 23 3/5. lol

You're misinterpreting what you are viewing. It's just shitty horses

BELMONT 6-6-09
03-13-2017, 08:55 PM
usually about 5-10 lengths off the pace on average fractions, suddenly are running bottom claiming harness fractions and staying 15-20 lengths off of 24 3/5 25 1/5 fractions

Then around the turn, they are so far back, that they can't even get a piece of the super.

It's actually embarrassing, and i'm seeing it more and more.


Although my new favorite, is when a race is full of speed, they let the favorite clear, then the other speed horses create a wall, about 3-4 lengths back, and stay together heading into turn, so any horse not near pace has to go 4-6 wide, losing all ground as favorite skips around the track.

These speed horses, who go 22 flat to 22 1/5 are sitting 3-4 lengths off of a 23 3/5. lol

Once the gate opens the "Chaos' factor takes hold in most races and this we can't control. Years ago you were able to target front running horses
in a pace profile of a race, today, it's unfortunate that we are at the mercy of a combination of jockey tactics of holding back forwardly placed horses.

Now I don't like to make excuses as nobody is forcing us to bet a certain race, however, I find myself passing on a number of races simply because I cannot get a confident play. That being said this game is all about adapting to an ever changing curve. those that adapt have a chance of showing profit.

EMD4ME
03-13-2017, 09:06 PM
Once the gate opens the "Chaos' factor takes hold in most races and this we can't control. Years ago you were able to target front running horses
in a pace profile of a race, today, it's unfortunate that we are at the mercy of a combination of jockey tactics of holding back forwardly placed horses.

Now I don't like to make excuses as nobody is forcing us to bet a certain race, however, I find myself passing on a number of races simply because I cannot get a confident play. That being said this game is all about adapting to an ever changing curve. those that adapt have a chance of showing profit.

Well said and you sometimes get the stalker being quarter horsed by an aggressive jockey.

That is why I love Emerald and can see California being on my horizon. Jocks aren't rating/strangling a need the leader in mid pack, very little get my position 1st over and choke (if the leader wires, oh well but if I hold 2nd I'm happy, best case I win if leader comes back).

BELMONT 6-6-09
03-13-2017, 09:13 PM
Well said and you sometimes get the stalker being quarter horsed by an aggressive jockey.

That is why I love Emerald and can see California being on my horizon. Jocks aren't rating/strangling a need the leader in mid pack, very little get my position 1st over and choke (if the leader wires, oh well but if I hold 2nd I'm happy, best case I win if leader comes back).



Good points. Hey let's face it we love this game and there is nothing better than walking into Belmont park on opening day of the Spring Meeting with the lush grass courses and the Belmont smell (ha ha ), ah anticipation!!!

That being said we have to accept the fact that the game can be unpredictable from a pace profile stand point at times. This is OK because if we are diligent in keeping to our rules we have the price on our side as well as our instincts which serve us well in the long run.

EMD4ME
03-13-2017, 09:18 PM
Good points. Hey let's face it we love this game and there is nothing better than walking into Belmont park on opening day of the Spring Meeting with the lush grass courses and the Belmont smell (ha ha ), ah anticipation!!!

That being said we have to accept the fact that the game can be unpredictable from a pace profile stand point at times. This is OK because if we are diligent in keeping to our rules we have the price on our side as well as our instincts which serve us well in the long run.

We can only adjust or play elsewhere.

If we continue hoping for a change or better said, betting like things will change, we will lose.

April 28th BABY! I will be there !!!!

I will take a visit there before hand to see how high/low the grass is. Remember when they cut the grass and all of a sudden Statebred horses were running 107 and 4/5 :lol::lol::lol:

BELMONT 6-6-09
03-13-2017, 09:29 PM
We can only adjust or play elsewhere.

If we continue hoping for a change or better said, betting like things will change, we will lose.

April 28th BABY! I will be there !!!!

I will take a visit there before hand to see how high/low the grass is. Remember when they cut the grass and all of a sudden Statebred horses were running 107 and 4/5 :lol::lol::lol:

Yeah can't fool you! I remember that incident. 90 days of racing at 'Big Sandy' this year and a few more of the late post Friday cards, which is definitely a plus as you see a lot of business people and younger crowd.

EMD4ME
03-13-2017, 10:22 PM
Yeah can't fool you! I remember that incident. 90 days of racing at 'Big Sandy' this year and a few more of the late post Friday cards, which is definitely a plus as you see a lot of business people and younger crowd.

Belmont, I'm so crazy, that I have thought of walking down to the turf course at 9 pm (when most everyone is gone) with my ruler (every tues night) and measuring the turf courses depth :lol::lol::lol:

thespaah
03-16-2017, 12:23 AM
Belmont, I'm so crazy, that I have thought of walking down to the turf course at 9 pm (when most everyone is gone) with my ruler (every tues night) and measuring the turf courses depth :lol::lol::lol:

The issue is not necessarily the height of the grass, but the moisture content of the soil.
The drier the soil, the faster the surface.
Now, if the soil is permitted to become too dry, the turf will break away at the crown( the point at which the grass emerges from the soil) and that is what one sees at places like GSW. That is perhaps the most poorly maintained turf course in the US.
I used to do turf maintenance. General rule of thumb is if a metal probe of some kind is stuck into the soil and the probe comes out clean, the soil is too dry.
What does this mean? If the turf breaks away, the horse's feet slide. That makes for a slower surface and a wrecked turf course.

EMD4ME
03-16-2017, 12:28 AM
The issue is not necessarily the height of the grass, but the moisture content of the soil.
The drier the soil, the faster the surface.
Now, if the soil is permitted to become too dry, the turf will break away at the crown( the point at which the grass emerges from the soil) and that is what one sees at places like GSW. That is perhaps the most poorly maintained turf course in the US.
I used to do turf maintenance. General rule of thumb is if a metal probe of some kind is stuck into the soil and the probe comes out clean, the soil is too dry.
What does this mean? If the turf breaks away, the horse's feet slide. That makes for a slower surface and a wrecked turf course.

Good stuff thespaah! Can you point me to the right size metal proble ? :lol::lol:

Just kidding! I don't want NYRA security tracking me down in the darkness at 9 p.m. as I probe the Turf course :lol:

ronsmac
03-16-2017, 12:37 AM
Once the gate opens the "Chaos' factor takes hold in most races and this we can't control. Years ago you were able to target front running horses
in a pace profile of a race, today, it's unfortunate that we are at the mercy of a combination of jockey tactics of holding back forwardly placed horses.

Now I don't like to make excuses as nobody is forcing us to bet a certain race, however, I find myself passing on a number of races simply because I cannot get a confident play. That being said this game is all about adapting to an ever changing curve. those that adapt have a chance of showing profit.The competence of the assistant starters also come into play. Just like every other walk of life, some are going to be better than others. Unfortunately , that's something that can't be quantified before the race.

EMD4ME
03-16-2017, 01:00 AM
The competence of the assistant starters also come into play. Just like every other walk of life, some are going to be better than others. Unfortunately , that's something that can't be quantified before the race.

FANTASTIC POINT :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Nothing worse than having all stars align for a pick 6 and watching a starter and his team mishandle the gate break, which changes the races and blows up your score.

And I don't want to hear about how it evens out. No it doesn't. :bang:

Robert Fischer
03-16-2017, 04:51 PM
Gate, placement, and timing mistakes can all be frustrating.

Good when you notice them for future reference. Bad when you watch your chances in the current race fizzle out, well before the wire.