Phases of handicapping accuracy

[Frankie D]

Hello. I am reviving a passion from about 1990. Online wagering! How long has this online wagering been widespread?

So I am using a nice handicapping technique I used way back when. It can readily and consistently make good selections at at about a 28 to 32% win rate, which you can help along with selecting plays. Also, roi can be boosted by limiting chalk. I would like to understand true odds better for that purpose.

My little system is based on 3 "votes" based on class, speed, and back speed. There are also one or two angles I use on occasion. The highest numbers go with the contenders most of the time, but this weekend and last weekend at gulfstream park there has been the most confounding, OR REVEALING, occurence of the NEXT number horse coming in.

This would not be so unusual if it was a random scatter of other horses from their positions, but this is from almost completely from that "NEXT" of one particular of my votes, the back speed vote. Very odd since this can be anywhere from the 2nd to the 7th or so entry depending on angles and eliminations

The odds have gone up when it does this though i occasionally hitbthose already. A couple have done it the last two weekends. The 43.00 winner in gp6 and the 15.80 in the second were examples... i almost grabbed the 43 one and there have been some in the 30s.

I never noticed this in the 80s but maybe i just was not paying attention. Maybe i have just discovered Gulfstream just went virtually completely to this tendency yesterday today and last weekend - Santa Anita did this a few races but mostly made numbers sense based on my universe. Fair Grounds was consistent for the most part. I intend to set up an analysis database and bet select system soon - the manual markup work is killing me. :rolleyes:

Maybe it always happened and playing one track "live" didnt let me see it before. Any ideas? Thanks in advance. I ķnow there are very knowledgeable folks here.

[lamboguy]

i am going to try to decipher what criteria you are using to make your ratings. my guess is that time and speed is the major component to it.

to me speed is just a weapon that a horse has in his arsenal of weapons. a horse that can turn on the afterburners at the right time can produce winners.

the examples are if a horse gets to the lead and has other's chasing, he can turn up his game and put the horses behind him to sleep. or if he is a little off the pace he can turn it up a notch and go by the horses in front of him.

since handicapping today is speed oriented by most people that play it and there is a decent degree of accuracy (not always), the faster horses tend to get bet the most.

in theory the fastest horse when put to a number figures to be the most likely to get themselves in position to use his speed to win the race. the big but is that obstacles often and do pop up that prevent the faster horse from doing his thing and that will leave the door open for other's to show their stuff. your job as a handicapper is to rate the probabilities of the horses you have as contenders and make odds to them.

i personally am a aware of speed in races, but i try not to make that the number 1 criteria to pick a horse to a race. i look more at where the horses were positioned and whom they were positioned in prior races even if it looks like they had a bad running line. it gives me something to look at where a horse could run a different race from what he has been running. although there is some degree of meaning for horses that missed the break, get bumped, blocked or carried wide, i don't pay to much attention to that stuff because everyone else can see it.

to sum this all up, the game has a very low probability of anyone winning at it that uses the same ways to pick their horses as everyone else. you have to parlay a winning form of handicapping and be able to overcome the takeout you pay to play the game. speaking from experience of being a consistent winning player for many years up until about 10 years ago, i find it impossible for me to handicap races and win at them any longer. its very hard for me to swallow, but there are some people that are way better at picking these things than i ever was today, and they don't bet chicken feed into these races.

my mother always knew what horse racing is all about, she said its about hope. for now i hope that i can pick the baby races that are about to start in Keeneland and Aqueduct in less than a month and keep it going throughout the summer and maybe produce a winning year by following the young horses.