HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 3/8

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields in ALL 8 Turf races.

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED. EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning,
but my Early selections based on a static tote analysis will follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds.
The static tote analysis has been used to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.
Later on (in real time) the LIVE tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by at least 4 mins to post) sometimes reveals things that cause changes to the Top 3 picks through substitutions, but currently they all look very good for some decent Quinella & Triple scores.
Other shown entries of interest will only be considered if they’re getting unusual play.

Based on current info there are 3 very competitive races this morning: #3 - #5 - #6

BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce a Profit Margin higher ^ than 50%.
Those races that come in @ 50% or lower are Passed.

R#1 - 1000M (5F) T……...…2-5 W/ 6-7-9-11 .........6:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1000M (5F) T..........1-2 W/ 8-3-7-12 …......6:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1650M (8¼F) T........2-1 W/ 5-9-11-7….…..7:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1650M (8¼F) T….....1-2 W/ 4-3-9-7…........7:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1200M (6F) T…........3-8 W/ 1-4-10-2........8:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1200M (6F) T…...……2-3 W/ 1-4-9-12……...8:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #6 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1800M (9F) T..........3-4 W/ 5-8-9-2..........9:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #11– Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1200M (6F) T….......2-3 W/ 9-4-7-5 …......9:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
4)
I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.
.

[Nitro]

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[CincyHorseplayer]

Kick it in the balls brother!

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2-5 W/ 6-7-9-11
Live Tote Results: 7-5-12-9 – Dutch Pass – 21% Profit Margin
4th choice $3.80 Early & Top choice Live - $17.30 QUIN


R#2 - 1-2 W/ 8-3-7-12 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 3-1-7-2 – Live Dutch Hit 52% Profit Margin
4th choice $7.70 Early & 2nd choice Live -– $52.40 QUIN & $300.60 TRI BX

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2-1 W/ 5-9-11-7 - Watch Live tote #6 -
Live Tote Results: 6-10-5-1 Live Dutch Hit 62% Profit Margin
Out Early & 3rd (Watch) $11.90 choice Live


R#4 - 1-2 W/ 4-3-9-7 - - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 4-9-2-12 Dutch Hit – 61% Profit Margin
3rd choice $6.60 Early & 2nd choice Live – $34.50 QUIN & $260.20 TRI BX

[Nitro]

R#5 - 3-8 W/ 1-4-10-2 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 2-3-8-10 – Dutch Out 70% Profit Margin
6th choice $25.00 Early & Live – $46.00 QUIN & $384.60 TRI BX


R#6 - 2-3 W/ 1-4-9-12
Live Tote Results: 11-12-8-4 - Dutch Out 88% Profit Margin
Out Early & Live –

[Nitro]

R#7 - 3-4 W/ 5-8-9-2 – Watch Live tote #7
Live Tote Results: 3-7-10-6 - Dutch Hit 70% Profit Margin
Top choice $10.50 Early & Live – $81.30 QUIN (w/ Watch #7)


R#8 - 2-3 W/ 9-4-7-5
Live Tote Results: 2-11-5-9 - Dutch Hit 53% Profit Margin
Top choice $10.50 Early & Live