Top Horse Analytics: 03/06/2017 Weekly Statistics

[Augenj]

Please follow the link below to view the weekly statistics for AQU, GP, OP, SA, TAM.

The statistics include favorites, morning line favorites, and various THA combinations.

http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/topic/96866-top-horse-analytics-03062017-weekly-statistics/

Note: THA has been upgraded to a new version again. We should see small improvements to (S)peed, (F)inish, and Top Horse in the future.

[markcol]

I've been trying to track some of the different selections that you post and I'm not sure why my number of races don't tie out. For example between your 2/27 and 3/06 weekly statistics post for TH/BestS Win at Gulfstream you show that there were 9 races, (2/27 had 178 & 3/6 had 187). By my tracking I had 15 races which I've listed below. Wondering if you could clarify what I've recorded incorrectly?

Thanks for all of your great posts.



Date Race Horse

03/02/17 7 3 Loving Valentina TH/BestS Win
03/02/17 8 4 Budding TH/BestS Win
03/02/17 10 5 Rich Mommy TH/BestS Win
03/03/17 1 3 R Sweet Exchange TH/BestS Win
03/03/17 9 2 In Closing TH/BestS Win
03/03/17 10 9 Barry's Swing TH/BestS Win
03/04/17 1 1 Always Dreaming TH/BestS Win
03/04/17 4 4 Coasted TH/BestS Win
03/04/17 6 5 Catch a Glimpse TH/BestS Win
03/04/17 7 1 Olorda TH/BestS Win
03/04/17 12 4 Wake Forest TH/BestS Win
03/05/17 3 4 Do Yahwanna Salsa TH/BestS Win
03/05/17 4 7 I Want Mo TH/BestS Win
03/05/17 6 2 Salty TH/BestS Win
03/05/17 13 9 Contractor Jak TH/BestS Win

[markcol]

I see that I was comparing the wrong things between dates so looking again I see

2/27 Nbr Races - 182

3/06 Nbr Races - 193

So 11 races whereas I had 15 races, not quite as much difference but still wondering what I'm missing.

Thanks.

[Augenj]

I've been trying to track some of the different selections that you post and I'm not sure why my number of races don't tie out. For example between your 2/27 and 3/06 weekly statistics post for TH/BestS Win at Gulfstream you show that there were 9 races, (2/27 had 178 & 3/6 had 187). By my tracking I had 15 races which I've listed below. Wondering if you could clarify what I've recorded incorrectly?

Thanks for all of your great posts.


The difference is that TH/BestS is counted only when the Top Horse has a (S)peed flag with it. To find how all of the BestS horses do, go to the Misc Stats in the last part of the statistics.

Aside from that, The Best horses are subject to a few duplicates since their ratings are not as granular as the Top Horse which is a combined rating from all of the Best horses. Duplicates are not counted so the overall total will be less that the number of races displayed in the first stats.

As I'm going through this, I see a need to post the overall track stats in the other categories as well. Right now they are only located in the Favorites section of the stats.

Let me know if this answers your question. I live on a different planet according to my wife. :D

[markcol]

Well I believe the only horses I'm counting are the Top Horse and have the (S)peed flag. I'm assuming Top Horse means the first horse listed for each race, I'll also looked to see if Turf vs Off Turf selections had any bearing and I don't see that they did.

Thanks for your time.

[Augenj]

Well I believe the only horses I'm counting are the Top Horse and have the (S)peed flag. I'm assuming Top Horse means the first horse listed for each race, I'll also looked to see if Turf vs Off Turf selections had any bearing and I don't see that they did.

Thanks for your time.
If you're sure that you're counting only the TH/BestS results then I need to look into this farther.

One possibility is that I upgraded THA before the weekly statistics and that produced a few different Top Horses than was actually presented during the week in question. It may be revisionist history but it's the only way I have to roll in an upgraded system.

Also, "late late" scratches after I've posted the final picks with late scratches will sometimes change who gets the "S" flag. Gulfstream is notorious about posting some of their scratches with less than an hour before the first post.

I think I''ll manually track it this week like you did. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

[Augenj]

Here's what happened at GP today.

After I posted the THA picks (after late scratches), there were 3 TH/BestS horses.

There was a "late late" scratch in the 7th.

03/08/17, GP, Race 7, 3:32 ET
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :2: Esken Lady [4-1] T *SCR*
098.2749 :8: Amaluna [3-1] SC 5th to 5th

As you can see, the Top Horse Esken Lady only had a T flag. This made Amaluna the Top Horse with a TH/BestS flag and increased the TH/BestS count to 4 which is what the statistics will report on at the end of the week. It could have worked the other way also.

In any case, I'll track it the rest of the week since I need to know if these stats are off. Today a "late late" scratch skewed the count.

[markcol]

Yeah I see how that would change the results to show more in stats, however in my case the stats showed less. If the top horse might change with updated information then that might explain it. I've double checked the selections I used and am pretty sure I've got the right list, you can see which horses I counted in my first message.

[Augenj]

Houston, we have a problem. I compared the new (unpublished) weekly totals with the picks during the week for TH/BestS. There were fewer occurrences in the weekly totals than the TH/BestS picks during the week.

As a result, I won't be posting the weekly statistics until I resolve this issue. Thanks, marcol for finding this and not being afraid to report it. Without you and Vigors I would still be posting garbage every week. ;)

[markcol]

Thank you for caring enough to dig in to this and for posting the awesome information that you do every racing day!!:headbanger:

[WVMike]

Thank you for caring enough to dig in to this and for posting the awesome information that you do every racing day!!:headbanger:

I second that! Awesome info you give out!