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boys at tosconova
03-05-2017, 06:58 PM
in trying to find some info on who will be racing in the TB derby to face beasley I watched the sam davis.

watch the ride tapwrit gets. in his first race in 2 months (post#7) he breaks awkwardly into the horse to his right. he then leaves alertly for a nice spot third on the rail.

from just after the 1/4 to well after the 1/2 the whole rail was opened up for him to shoot the gap. ortiz just sat there and didn't ask much while having plenty of run to advance. as they were about to round the second turn to the stretch ortiz asked for horse but the rail had closed up and he swung out wide only to get boxed by mckracken to his outside.

once in the stretch after mckracken cleared there was separation and tapwrit was coming on/lumbering briskly to finish 2nd

i really question the drive. it was a bad one imo. bad in the sense that he wasn't trying. the lead and front was there for the asking and ortiz waited too long. either that or he didn't want it,,the horse is green or had instructions from pletcher. it could be a combo of them all. but at one point it looked like ortiz held him back while the rail was open on purpose.

can't see pletcher pulling this crap in the TB Derby.

this horse looks like he's capable of being more then a one run horse, not to mention one that will like the classic distance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9QTCU7rwTo

boys at tosconova
03-05-2017, 09:03 PM
video of battalion runner beating beasley

http://tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_Gulfstream.aspx?EventID=109832&Date=2/3/2017&Type=TBRED&Venue=20&DisplayType=1

Andrick
03-06-2017, 01:53 AM
Tapwrit is one of the few three year-olds that have ran so far this year that has caught my eye as one who could make some noise over classic distances. I love the length of his stride he's shown in his races so far and how he's been able to maintain that length to the wire. He still runs a little green, though, so we'll see how he develops over the next couple of months.

Spalding No!
03-06-2017, 10:55 AM
watch the ride tapwrit gets. in his first race in 2 months (post#7) he breaks awkwardly into the horse to his right. he then leaves alertly for a nice spot third on the rail.

from just after the 1/4 to well after the 1/2 the whole rail was opened up for him to shoot the gap. ortiz just sat there and didn't ask much while having plenty of run to advance. as they were about to round the second turn to the stretch ortiz asked for horse but the rail had closed up and he swung out wide only to get boxed by mckracken to his outside.

once in the stretch after mckracken cleared there was separation and tapwrit was coming on/lumbering briskly to finish 2nd
I think you're loading the case quite a bit here. Tapwrit didn't really break awkwardly, he simply broke out and bumped the eventual winner McCraken.

Yes he had plenty of room down the backstretch along the rail, but why would the rider make an early bid well out from the finish, simply because the rail was wide open? And that's ignoring if the horse was even handy enough to make a quick move. Sure enough, at a proper point in time of the race (approaching the 3/8 pole), Ortiz does ask Tapwrit quite vigorously to accelerate and the horse simply doesn't respond.

And while the rail closed up when Ortiz asked again near the 1/4 pole, it made no difference, because at that point the leader and Wild Shot had both been asked and actually cleared Tapwrit and the others by a couple of lengths. When McCraken "boxed" Tapwrit it had to be for nanoseconds at the most because he blew right by him and quickly collared the leaders.

Finally, "lumbering briskly" sounds like a rose-colored glass way of saying "plodding along" past tired rivals. The horse doesn't appear to be very push button which will likely hinder any classic aspirations.

However, the last two 4th place finishers in the Kentucky Derby have been Tapit colts (Frosted and Mohaymen) that sat in the back and went by the faders. So maybe he can round out the superfecta.

boys at tosconova
03-06-2017, 03:10 PM
I think you're loading the case quite a bit here. Tapwrit didn't really break awkwardly, he simply broke out and bumped the eventual winner McCraken.

Yes he had plenty of room down the backstretch along the rail, but why would the rider make an early bid well out from the finish, simply because the rail was wide open? And that's ignoring if the horse was even handy enough to make a quick move. Sure enough, at a proper point in time of the race (approaching the 3/8 pole), Ortiz does ask Tapwrit quite vigorously to accelerate and the horse simply doesn't respond.

And while the rail closed up when Ortiz asked again near the 1/4 pole, it made no difference, because at that point the leader and Wild Shot had both been asked and actually cleared Tapwrit and the others by a couple of lengths. When McCraken "boxed" Tapwrit it had to be for nanoseconds at the most because he blew right by him and quickly collared the leaders.

Finally, "lumbering briskly" sounds like a rose-colored glass way of saying "plodding along" past tired rivals. The horse doesn't appear to be very push button which will likely hinder any classic aspirations.

However, the last two 4th place finishers in the Kentucky Derby have been Tapit colts (Frosted and Mohaymen) that sat in the back and went by the faders. So maybe he can round out the superfecta.

we're all going to see things and interpret them a little differently. it's pretty obv tapwrit is green. after watching the race again the horse was all over the place when he moves. i read that pletcher said he's been a handful controlling him, and this was before sam race. it's still a problem imo. it was until very deep stretch did you see tapwrit hitting a nice stride and moving quickly

boys at tosconova
03-07-2017, 04:28 AM
looks like most of the sam davis field will be running in the TB derby. if that's the case wild shot has to be given a good shot to run well.

he raced 3 and 4 wide for virtually the entire race off of almost a 3 month layoff while tiring late and finishing 4th. (see vid above)

have to think he'll be tighter and should get a much better trip in here. might be slightly overlooked at the window as well

boys at tosconova
03-07-2017, 07:57 PM
TB Derby probables

Tale Of Silence.....B. Tagg
Third Day ...........T. Pletcher
Beasley................M. Hennig
State Of Honor........ M. Casse
No Dozing....... A. Delacour
Wild Shot.............G. Arnold II
Tapwrit.................T. Pletcher

doesn't look like there will be much value in here. tapwrit should take a ton of money and i wouldn't be surprised to see the horse 9/5 or 2-1 favorite.......yawn

beasley goes from being completely overlooked @ a probable 10/20-1 in the foy to a closely examined horse in here. value is prolly down the drain because of it and the lower competition. can you really see anything over 4-1 here? especially w/ that strong work. all everyone will be talking about is how good battalion runner might be as well......good move to scratch out of the foy for the connections of the horse.....bad move for the bettors :(

wild shot might be the best in here, and the one you might get the most value with to boot. anywhere from 3-1 to 5-1..i'll prolly be throwing a fistful of dollars @ this horse

third day should take $$ because of pletcher..but how can you not prefer the top 3 over this one...lets say 6-1 to 8-1

no dozing isn't going the right way, taleofsilence is a toss. state of honor should take some coin but seems 4th best unless one of the top 3 get messed up

sorry folks, move along...no longshots to look @ here folks

tanner12oz
03-08-2017, 10:37 PM
Think he's talented but worry about his head a bit..could be the imploding type

boys at tosconova
03-09-2017, 05:35 PM
nothing has really changed for me.

besides the few you didn't know were in, and pletcher putting in mule over third day.

i still feel it's a 3 horse race. 5/6/9. both wildshot and tapwrit are poised for huge runs. there's more uncertainty w/ beasley, but that doesn't mean he can run big as well.

i guess the 4th/5th figure horse in the race are sonic mule and state of honor...and if you want to forgive no dozing..but i can't.

can't see why anyone would play state of honor over both wildshot/tapwrit. both of those were off a layoff and both ran better in the sam..not to mention classier


1. Tale of Silence, Paco Lopez, Barclay Tagg, 15-1

2. The Money Monster, Joel Rosario, Bill Mott, 15-1

3. Basha, Emisael Jaramillo, Gilberto Zerpa, 12-1

4. No Dozing, Daniel Centeno, Arnaud Delacour, 6-1

5. Tapwrit, Jose Ortiz, Todd Pletcher, 3-1

6. Beasley, Irad Ortiz Jr., Mark Hennig, 9-2

7. Sonic Mule, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 6-1

8. State of Honor, Julien Leparoux, Mark Casse, 4-1

9. Wild Shot, Robby Albarado, Rusty Arnold, 5-1

10. Zion Valley, Huber Villa-Gomez, Kevin Rice, 50-1

Lemon Drop Husker
03-09-2017, 08:39 PM
Filled with an entire field that looks to struggle to get a mile much less 8.5 panels other than Tapwrit.

Tapwrit makes the most sense, but I might take a look at The Money Monster a bit further.

Yeah, he has the same 5 1/2F, to 7F, to now, credentials like some others in here that have at 2 turn distances; but at least he is a ML 15/1 amid a bunch of horses you question at a mile or more. He has also never lost.

May take a stab at State of Honor as well. A change of style, and post, could do him good.

In the end, a likely pass.

luisbe
03-09-2017, 10:09 PM
what's Zion Valley doing there is beyond my comprehension. Couldn't even win a MC16K at Tampa.
Does anyone have any reasonable answer?

Lemon Drop Husker
03-09-2017, 10:22 PM
what's Zion Valley doing there is beyond my comprehension. Couldn't even win a MC16K at Tampa.
Does anyone have any reasonable answer?

Owner/Trainer looking to get box seats.

Mr. Pick 5
03-10-2017, 12:41 AM
Filled with an entire field that looks to struggle to get a mile much less 8.5 panels other than Tapwrit.

Tapwrit makes the most sense, but I might take a look at The Money Monster a bit further.

Yeah, he has the same 5 1/2F, to 7F, to now, credentials like some others in here that have at 2 turn distances; but at least he is a ML 15/1 amid a bunch of horses you question at a mile or more. He has also never lost.

May take a stab at State of Honor as well. A change of style, and post, could do him good.

In the end, a likely pass.

I wouldnt bet anything casse has on the dirt these days...his results this year have been absolutely horrific...good horses too...loss after loss, underperformance after underperformance

Lemon Drop Husker
03-10-2017, 01:06 AM
I wouldnt bet anything casse has on the dirt these days...his results this year have been absolutely horrific...good horses too...loss after loss, underperformance after underperformance

Noted.

I think the entired field is crap, but somebody gets a pass to the Kentucky Derby.

Mr. Pick 5
03-10-2017, 01:11 AM
Noted.

I think the entired field is crap, but somebody gets a pass to the Kentucky Derby.

feels like nobody is winning the derby this year...they all have their fair share of negatives....hoping to finally capitalize on a derby bomb....one can only hope

LottaKash
03-10-2017, 01:21 AM
feels like nobody is winning the derby this year...they all have their fair share of negatives....hoping to finally capitalize on a derby bomb....one can only hope

Very interesting Derby-Trail so far, to say the least....

Should be fun with Big-Baloons on tap perhaps...

Refreshing...:cool:

boys at tosconova
03-10-2017, 03:07 AM
longshots? fat chance of that this race.

if they were holding back tapwrit he might win by 5L here.

wild shot looks very strong as well imo. that was a pretty tough trip he had in the sam davis. the horse make moves in every race.

both should be unleashed in this race..and let's not forget about beasley

Tom
03-11-2017, 04:51 PM
:1: Blofeld for my LS pick.

Tom
03-11-2017, 05:14 PM
Wrong horse, wrong race!

I meant to post my LS for the Derby is No Dosing, off his Remsen. 2nd off the layoff, he could close in here.

Tom
03-11-2017, 06:45 PM
Or not.

Mulerider
03-11-2017, 09:26 PM
Or not.

Tom, I wanted to bet Sonic Mule just on general principle, but since I was in a DW tournament I went with No Dozing instead. Apparently he WAS dozing.

Mule

Tom
03-12-2017, 10:13 AM
Damn fine impressive retreat, though.

boys at tosconova
03-12-2017, 07:04 PM
monster race from tapwrit. pretty sure i saw he was 50-1 to win the derby @ the wynn last week. can't say i didn't see this big run coming...haaa

have to say i was disappointed as ever a third place finish could be w/ wild shot. in his defense, arnold has said he's a a horse that needs to be up close, and coming off the pace you have to think he was compromised to his style of running.

in the sam he was up closer and raced wide the entire race and was still coming. in the tb derby he saved ground and had less run.

it didn't seem like robby had a choice either as the whole middle of the track left inside him leaving him poor options to either argue the pace, go wide or take back.

still think he might be sitting on a big one w/ a jock change and an inside post. it's going to be interesting to see which race arnold chooses.

lol @ beasley for having anything. horse burned quite a bit of money.