Derby Trail 2017 Blown Up!

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good day,

Well id say after yesterday, for the first time in a few years, this thing is wide open. What do you make of what happened to Irish War Cry? Who is your current top 10? www.DerbyPowerRankings.com was completely blown up yesterday and who knows what to make of where the shrapnal fell...


For once we got a trail that is wide open and its kind of nice...


Cheers

[PizzaCat]

I wouldn't say blown up, just weeding out the pretenders of IWC, El Areeb, and Mo Town.

The real class of this crop IMO is Gormley, American Anthem, and Mastery. If we see some upsets in the San Felipe and Rebel, then I'd be willing to say that the trail has blown up. Hoping it happens as we haven't seen a big surprise since the RTTKD system :)

[sbcaris]

The real class does not show itself until the 9 furlong major preps have been run. Even then it's really tough to discern who is classiest.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Irish War Cry ran a real dud but I can forgive him that one. Kept putting up a bigger and bigger performnace with increasing adversity as he went. After that big number, easy trip or not, there was no way IMO he has going to duplicate it. To me his real problem is running style. Lot of talented speed this year if they all make it to the dance, again just my opinion on speed too.

My top 3 performances this year are;

One Liner, Irish War Cry, and McCraken

Girvin ran great overall but it was all set up by that very slow first half

Mastery has been my horse from a pedigree and talent perspective and his overall performance last out was warped by both a 45.6 half to start and it was friggin December 10th! LOL!

Yesterday's Fountain Of Youth while visually impressive to me came up as one of the worst preps of the year.

But like you I am enjoying a wide open affair. I have not enjoyed Derby day evolving into my main interest being undercard turf races!

[PowerUpPaynter]

yeah, as far as Irish War Cry no need to try to get him to rate anymore. Let him just run and see what happens. Not ideal for the derby, but what else they gonna do... He looked very uncomfortable down teh back stretch trying to rate almost like the horse was saying if i cant go to the front im just gonna shut it down.

Saw Graham Motion say he might wait a little longer than the April 1 Florida Derby, Im thinking if he skips that the Wood is the target. maybe the Bluegrass, but youd think he would opt for teh easier spot.

now on a side note, isnt J Boys Echo one of the worst names for a racehorse in a while. jeez

[letswastemoney]

I'm skeptical of Irish War Cry's stamina. You don't want a horse going 10 furlongs who can't handle a hot pace.

[magwell]

I'm skeptical of Irish War Cry's stamina. You don't want a horse going 10 furlongs who can't handle a hot pace.He was not the same looking horse in the paddock, looked dull , something was not right that's why being on the scene is the last edge in the game, actually it came up a weak bunch visually, must be some better 3 year olds somewhere ?

[boys at tosconova]

He was not the same looking horse in the paddock, looked dull , something was not right that's why being on the scene is the last edge in the game, actually it came up a weak bunch visually, must be some better 3 year olds somewhere ?


weak bunch? the top 3 finishers in the FOY earned over 2.1 mil combined as 2 year olds. between them they had multiple graded wins and accomplished resumes.

18 starts w/ 11wins - 3pl - 1show..15/18 itm not including the foy results

i would say that's a pretty strong, and weak is not what i would use to describe them

[PowerUpPaynter]

i think this whole crop as a whole may be weak. the New York and Louisiana horses are absolutely pathetic. The crowd at Oaklawn seem to be pretty solid however.

[boys at tosconova]

i think this whole crop as a whole may be weak. the New York and Louisiana horses are absolutely pathetic. The crowd at Oaklawn seem to be pretty solid however.

seems like i hear "this crop is weak" every year from somebody

[Lemon Drop Husker]

seems like i hear "this crop is weak" every year from somebody

Yeah. I get tired of it as well BoysAT. Every year we hear the same thing. "This crop sucks, nobody is good, and nothing will come of them."

I love this "crop". I think this is a very solid crop, and like Arrogate last year, we haven't seen the flashlight quite yet. I am a big Irish War Cry fan, but heavily wagered against him in his last. He is a Miler. Straight up.

Gunnevera has ran the best race thus far from my point of view. J whatever Echo, has no chance.

Reality is, breeding is too huge in that the biggies want to keep them healthy and take a 2 run type (prep and actual KDerby) go at it in this day and time. We've seen some. A month away from the real races.

[horses4courses]

seems like i hear "this crop is weak" every year from somebody

Without fail :ThmbUp:

Someone should really stick their neck out,
for a change, and make a statement in March
like "looks like the best crop in a long time" :rolleyes:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Without fail :ThmbUp:

Someone should really stick their neck out,
for a change, and make a statement in March
like "looks like the best crop in a long time" :rolleyes:


I'll do that for you.

This looks like a really good crop to me. Better than the last decade type stuff. Maidens right now, that could win the roses.

I see a lot of great to good to pure awesome horses. And it is must March. Let the time come about. You'll see the awesomeness.

Arrogate.

Horse nobody really heard about up till August of last year. Certainly not ever during the Triple Crown Trail, has turned in to be a Horse of a Lifetime.

Do we have another?

[PowerUpPaynter]

Well ill stand by my statement which was misquoted :

"i think this whole crop as a whole may be weak. the New York and Louisiana horses are absolutely pathetic. The crowd at Oaklawn seem to be pretty solid however."


Again I want to see the Rebel because I think the Oaklawn horses look like they can be the top of the class. Also want to see how Mastery looks next week. Anyone who wants to make a case for these putrid NY or Louisiana horses go right ahead... but they suck. J Boys Echo and Girvin... give me a break.

Finally we got a derby season which is wide open. No Nyquist, Pharoah, or Chrome...

[menifee]

I actually think this crop is really good so far. I'm not sure we have seen the Derby winner win one of these preps though.

That Japanese horse is also really intriguing. Looks to be a very exciting Spring.

[Spalding No!]

Anyone who wants to make a case for these putrid NY or Louisiana horses go right ahead... but they suck. J Boys Echo and Girvin... give me a break.
Didn't J Boys Echo just register the highest Beyer for a 3yo male (along with One Liner) thus far this year? I already made a case for Girvin and LA in general, but didn't get much by way of response.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I actually think this crop is really good so far. I'm not sure we have seen the Derby winner win one of these preps though.

That Japanese horse is also really intriguing. Looks to be a very exciting Spring.

Which horses do you think are the top ones so far?

I want to see what Mastery has next week. Obviously McCraken looks like a good one. Gunnevera has the looks of a horse that finishes top 4 in the derby. Im really excited to see American Anthem and my super sleeper Petrov. It way way early but call me crazy I kind of think Petrov could be on pace to peak on May 6th. Love his last race he was very close to the fast pace and still finished well. Seems to be consistent at running good races kinda like Musket Man back in like 2009...

[Raider]

Well ill stand by my statement which was misquoted :

"i think this whole crop as a whole may be weak. the New York and Louisiana horses are absolutely pathetic. The crowd at Oaklawn seem to be pretty solid however."


Again I want to see the Rebel because I think the Oaklawn horses look like they can be the top of the class. Also want to see how Mastery looks next week. Anyone who wants to make a case for these putrid NY or Louisiana horses go right ahead... but they suck. J Boys Echo and Girvin... give me a break.

Finally we got a derby season which is wide open. No Nyquist, Pharoah, or Chrome...

I think your right PowerUpPaynter, if the final times don't matter, then this is the strongest crop of all time, the slowest Gotham time . the thrid slowest FOY don't matter, this is the strongest crop of all time,

[Spalding No!]

The real class of this crop IMO is Gormley, American Anthem, and Mastery.
Gormley (along with the other CA colts) was exposed in the BC Juvenile. Gormley didn't particularly show any progression in his latest start, which was a typical small field featuring maidens and recent graduates with a decent purse and graded stakes status ironically called the "Sham" Stakes. Considering the fields, American Anthem's maiden race (Illiad, So Conflated) was stronger than the Sham.

Mastery, by virtue of not actually racing, has suddenly become more popular as the current Derby favorite, and yet the same question marks remain. From his maiden race, Sheer Flattery emerged to take several more tries to break his maiden before running off the board in both the Robert Lewis and El Camino Real Derby. In the Bob Hope, in which he did not look particularly impressive, he beat two Cal-bred colts, one of whom failed as the favorite (with a bad ride) in the El Camino Real Derby. In the Los Al Futurity, he beat the maiden Irap, who was beaten open lengths in a New Mexico prep for the Sunland Park Derby.

There's been a lot of discussion delving deep into pedigrees and breeding theory in this forum (which I personally enjoy), but there hasn't been a mention of the one glaring thing about Mastery's pedigree. He's by Candy Ride, who is not noted for getting horses for the classic distances aside from the freakish Shared Belief.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yeah I see no need for a declaration every week after a prep if the crop is good or bad or etc. I find them ALL interesting and fun to follow. In fact when there is a potential dominant horse and the supporting cast looks only a touch slower then to me it becomes a borefest. That is not fun at all. Dominant chalk and mediocre exotics is NOT what I am looking for on the first Saturday in May. A crop with no standouts presents IMO the most intrigue and also the best betting opportunities.

Plus isn't there just willful denial or plain dumbness knowing these are 3yo's and are still growing both physically and mentally, are immature, and for many have no established running style even, to be constantly making declarations? It was a long time ago in my 20 years in the game that til fall and especially after the BC that I make my personal judgement about a crop. The next big thing could open our eyes any week now. Or like Bayern and Arrogate come on later. Reserve your judgement, hope for $, but most importantly enjoy the ride. I know this weekend in particular I got my first wave of Derby Fever!:cool:

[PowerUpPaynter]

Didn't J Boys Echo just register the highest Beyer for a 3yo male (along with One Liner) thus far this year? I already made a case for Girvin and LA in general, but didn't get much by way of response.

I dont know man, maybe im wrong, but they are racing a bunch of nobodies I dont care much about the high beyers. Let a horse like Practical Joke ship in to NY and id bet he wins the wood by a dozen. Maybe im bias against J Echos Boy cause his name is so bad. Iv been known to do that time to time for a fault. But Girvin just didnt do anything for me. It was like hes the best guy in the NBA D league.

[boys at tosconova]

I dont know man, maybe im wrong, but they are racing a bunch of nobodies I dont care much about the high beyers. Let a horse like Practical Joke ship in to NY and id bet he wins the wood by a dozen. Maybe im bias against J Echos Boy cause his name is so bad. Iv been known to do that time to time for a fault. But Girvin just didnt do anything for me. It was like hes the best guy in the NBA D league.

i hear this every year as well. you want nobodies. take a look at the upcoming tb derby. both beasley and tapwrit will prolly be favs as i look through the probables.

hey..i hope you're right and everyone is weak. i hope we get a derby w/ a complete field of horses that beat each other and the ones behind them not losing by much. as a bettor it will bring back the longshots

[dilanesp]

Yeah I see no need for a declaration every week after a prep if the crop is good or bad or etc. I find them ALL interesting and fun to follow. In fact when there is a potential dominant horse and the supporting cast looks only a touch slower then to me it becomes a borefest. That is not fun at all. Dominant chalk and mediocre exotics is NOT what I am looking for on the first Saturday in May. A crop with no standouts presents IMO the most intrigue and also the best betting opportunities.

Plus isn't there just willful denial or plain dumbness knowing these are 3yo's and are still growing both physically and mentally, are immature, and for many have no established running style even, to be constantly making declarations? It was a long time ago in my 20 years in the game that til fall and especially after the BC that I make my personal judgement about a crop. The next big thing could open our eyes any week now. Or like Bayern and Arrogate come on later. Reserve your judgement, hope for $, but most importantly enjoy the ride. I know this weekend in particular I got my first wave of Derby Fever!:cool:

Yep. Nobody ever knows how good a crop is until you get to look back on it.

As for betting the Derby, I know this is sacrilege, but I think players should basically view it as pure gambling. You are hoping for a big score, nobody really knows anything, the statistics that are bandied about are based on small sample sizes and are next to useless, etc. There isn't any handicapper out there who has found any magic formula to "crack" the Derby.

If you are trying to make money on the game, it's your day-to-day plays where that will be established. The Derby is just a fun one-off event where you can take a flyer.

[menifee]

Interesting allowance race at Santa Anita this Thursday - race 7. Let's see if any new shooters appear out west.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yep. Nobody ever knows how good a crop is until you get to look back on it.

As for betting the Derby, I know this is sacrilege, but I think players should basically view it as pure gambling. You are hoping for a big score, nobody really knows anything, the statistics that are bandied about are based on small sample sizes and are next to useless, etc. There isn't any handicapper out there who has found any magic formula to "crack" the Derby.

If you are trying to make money on the game, it's your day-to-day plays where that will be established. The Derby is just a fun one-off event where you can take a flyer.

D. We agree on some stuff. Championship in itself!:ThmbUp:

[Hapman]

Yep. Nobody ever knows how good a crop is until you get to look back on it.

As for betting the Derby, I know this is sacrilege, but I think players should basically view it as pure gambling. You are hoping for a big score, nobody really knows anything, the statistics that are bandied about are based on small sample sizes and are next to useless, etc. There isn't any handicapper out there who has found any magic formula to "crack" the Derby.

If you are trying to make money on the game, it's your day-to-day plays where that will be established. The Derby is just a fun one-off event where you can take a flyer.

Completely agree. I'll do some chalk but mostly on Derby I just try to gamble to be honest.

Did that last year and did better than I have done the few years previous when I tried to handicap more seriously.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Interesting allowance race at Santa Anita this Thursday - race 7. Let's see if any new shooters appear out west.

R7 yesterday at Santa Anita was a really intriguing race of "hopefuls".

Not all that excited about the WP horses, but Colonist is an interesting one for me and Bird Orr Brady could be worth a second look down the line.

[menifee]

Well Mastery certainly would be the top favorite based on his race this weekend and the speed fig he earned. So sad to hear about his injury. I'm not sold on Tapwrit. He didn't beat much yesterday. I think the Blue Grass might be one of the best preps this year. McCracken, CE and J boys Echo should be loaded.

[magwell]

FOY turns out to be a bogus race, a weak bunch of 3 yr olds that got wasted today.........;)

[Secondbest]

Always dreaming according to bloodhorse just ran the fastest Florida Derby since Alydar. And he did it by 5 going away .Very impressive.

[f2tornado]

23.28 47.08 110.75 147.47.

That's a sub 37 final 3/8th in the FL Derby on a RAN with a rider who's held the roses. Reminds me a bit of AP two years ago. Ran slow then took off. I'm gonna have to use this one. Already played some Future exactas.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Gulfstream was a drag strip yesterday and on top of that there was timing issues. Can the times and 97 beyer ran by Always Dreaming be trusted? Based on the visual impressiveness and the times I will likely be forced use him in exotic tickets but i will do so with caution.

[f2tornado]

The Equibase figure was 100 which is par this decade. Orb had a 98. Even if the time was off by a second it was still fast. RAN horses with fast fractions have a massive impact value in the Derby. Throw in a winning pilot and a trainer who can help dictate the pace by virtue of controlling a quarter of the gates makes it a logical choice. We still have some big preps coming up and I'm anxious to see how a few run but until then I locked in a bunch of Future exacta wagers with this Pletcher. Gunnevera ran the Orb style race and might be this year's Exagerator. I don't think an extra panel would have got him the win yesterday.

[Robert Fischer]

If we get another moderate-paced Derby, Always Dreaming has a real shot at winning.
He can break forward, rate, and shows a good response/kick in the lane.

The problem is that we've never seen him face adversity.
In the Florida Derby his job was basically "don't get run over by Saez, be yourself, and out-kick future Queen's Plate bet-against State of Honor.

Always Dreaming's 3 route races have all been dream trips.

This is also exactly the same horse as he was on Saturday morning, but now he's top-5 in everyone's derby dozen. We got odds of 5-2 yesterday, vs an even-money shot who had less chance of winning than he did. Moving forward, the value is flip-flopped.

Negatives aside, he has to be respected.

[Mc990]

The Equibase figure was 100 which is par this decade. Orb had a 98. Even if the time was off by a second it was still fast. RAN horses with fast fractions have a massive impact value in the Derby. Throw in a winning pilot and a trainer who can help dictate the pace by virtue of controlling a quarter of the gates makes it a logical choice. We still have some big preps coming up and I'm anxious to see how a few run but until then I locked in a bunch of Future exacta wagers with this Pletcher. Gunnevera ran the Orb style race and might be this year's Exagerator. I don't think an extra panel would have got him the win yesterday.

I personally think Gunnevera is cooked. The FOY was a huge new top to a monster figure and he predictably bounced from it. The problem is, the FOY is his only race that makes him a player in the derby.... Where does he go from here? I think he's probably more likely to not make the gate than he is to win.

Always Dreaming will be the quintessential bet against derby day. Again, this one race makes him fast enough but it was a huge top... He also figures to take money from the "once a year" crowd (for whatever that's worth). I don't see how he can be value... 7-1 currently in the future pool. Ridiculous

[f2tornado]

Always Dreaming's 3 route races have all been dream trips.

I agree, but said same thing about AP two years ago. I also mocked AP's slow pace in the Rebel... but he closed so nice. I basically talked myself out of making a nice future wager bet on AP when the odds were generous. This charge also has similar top side breeding to AP. I'll leave the comparisons there for now. Always Dreaming is now the 6-1 favorite in the final Future wager. Fair, but not great. Perhaps 4-1 Derby day and less if McCraken fails this week. There's still some nice value in the exacta pool with the shortest straight bet over McCraken currently offering 65-1. I expect those to drift a little lower before the pool closes.

[PowerUpPaynter]

If we get another moderate-paced Derby, Always Dreaming has a real shot at winning.
He can break forward, rate, and shows a good response/kick in the lane.

The problem is that we've never seen him face adversity.
In the Florida Derby his job was basically "don't get run over by Saez, be yourself, and out-kick future Queen's Plate bet-against State of Honor.

Always Dreaming's 3 route races have all been dream trips.

This is also exactly the same horse as he was on Saturday morning, but now he's top-5 in everyone's derby dozen. We got odds of 5-2 yesterday, vs an even-money shot who had less chance of winning than he did. Moving forward, the value is flip-flopped.

Negatives aside, he has to be respected.

American Pharoah never saw adversity either. I think thats over rated

[Robert Fischer]

American Pharoah never saw adversity either. I think thats over rated
maybe so.

These posts were from 4-11-15, and 4-13-15:
He looks better than Bernardini.

This could be a triple crown, with good health, and some racing luck.

I agree, this is a strong crop.

In a normal year, a horse like Carpe Diem, or Dortmund, would be a worthy favorite.

If any horse wins the triple crown again, it will be very special because of the difficulty and rarity alone. If American Pharoah wins the triple crown this year, it will really stamp him among the modern greats.


Don't have that feeling about Always Dreaming, but I'm wrong a lot of the time.

Don't let me talk you off a future-wager. I'm just giving my opinion on the horse. He has a shot. :ThmbUp:

[Sinner369]

"The problem is that we've never seen him face adversity.
In the Florida Derby his job was basically "don't get run over by Saez, be yourself, and out-kick future Queen's Plate bet-against State of Honor.

Always Dreaming's 3 route races have all been dream trips. "

Isn't that what you want in a race horse?.............AD has enough tactical early speed to get into position and enough stamina to have a late kick to win the race.

[f2tornado]

...Always Dreaming will be the quintessential bet against derby day. Again, this one race makes him fast enough but it was a huge top... He also figures to take money from the "once a year" crowd (for whatever that's worth). I don't see how he can be value... 7-1 currently in the future pool. Ridiculous

Agree 7-1 (and now 6-1) is not value at this time given there are four big preps to go and a few potential monsters in them. I already have McCraken covered to some extent in previous Future wagers so played the Florida Derby winner in the exacta this time. Florida Derby winners and even board hitters have done very well in Triple Crown races. Recent FL Derby winners to KY Derby winners include Nyquist, Orb, Big Brown, Barbaro, and Monarchos. That's about one in three Derby winners in the last decade and a half. Further, a couple other solid contenders had to drop out (Constitution, Dialed In and Quality Road). Throw in the Raise A Native sire line angle which have won twice as many as statistical chance, then add in a fast final 3/8th angle which win close to 80% along with a Derby winning rider and you see a solid chance. Some will knock Pletcher but he's had few that looked this good after a 9F prep and a few of his better ones were lame before getting to Kentucky.

[Robert Fischer]

If you happen to be picking Irish War Cry to win the Wood, then he's a juicy price @ 22-1

[PowerUpPaynter]

If you happen to be picking Irish War Cry to win the Wood, then he's a juicy price @ 22-1

I love Cloud Computing in the Wood. Hoping to get 15-1 on him next week.

[SoCalCircuit]

I love Cloud Computing in the Wood. Hoping to get 15-1 on him next week.

Lol what? You're not even gonna get anything close to that.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Lol what? You're not even gonna get anything close to that.

yeah your right, that blows. was hoping he was flying under the radar and Irish War Cry being from Jersey will take local fan money, Batttalion Runner I feel has more hype than CC and Mo Town maybe some people would write off the last tank. But based on CC futures ending odds. hes no secret...

[f2tornado]

But based on CC futures ending odds. hes no secret...

Correct. He got a big TFUS figure in the Gotham and has a decent pedigree. I love the MrP's at 9F... but what I expect will be his two biggest competitors have the same. It's not a gimme. I did put him underneath AD for $3 in the future wager exacta @ 435-1.

[Spalding No!]

I personally think Gunnevera is cooked. The FOY was a huge new top to a monster figure and he predictably bounced from it. The problem is, the FOY is his only race that makes him a player in the derby.... Where does he go from here? I think he's probably more likely to not make the gate than he is to win.
That big win followed up by a loss profile has worked well in the past--Unbridled, Lil E. Tee, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone, Monarchos, and Street Sense.

Many of those were good prices, too.

[Mc990]

That big win followed up by a loss profile has worked well in the past--Unbridled, Lil E. Tee, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone, Monarchos, and Street Sense.

Many of those were good prices, too.

I guess I don't necessarily view a loss after a win as a bounce. In terms of figures, how many of those mentioned actually bounced? Monarchos and Thunder Gulch? Neither nounced as much as Gunn though. I won't try to talk anyone off a longshot but at what price can you play him? He closed at 9-1 in the future pool... I'd write tickets all day on him at those odds

[Spalding No!]

I guess I don't necessarily view a loss after a win as a bounce. In terms of figures, how many of those mentioned actually bounced? Monarchos and Thunder Gulch? Neither nounced as much as Gunn though.
Point taken. I was too lazy to actually check the Beyers, but since you called me out, Monarchos (105 to 103) and Grindstone (102 to 100) regressed ever so slightly. Thunder Gulch, despite the drop off in performance equaled his 101 Beyer in the FL Derby running 4th in the Blue Grass. Lil E. Tee earned his lifetime best (107) when losing a photo to Pine Bluff in the Arkansas Derby. Street Sense dived from 102 down to 93 in the Blue Grass, but that was confounded by the Polytrack. Unbridled earned a notoriously low Beyer when winning the Florida Derby; I presume he at least equaled it when running 3rd to the very good Summer Squall in the Blue Grass.

As for Gunnevera, I think to some degree his effort in the Derby is going to be dependent on the pace. Going off CJ's charts, the Fountain of Youth had a very strong pace whereas the Florida Derby was fairly modest despite some horses with early speed (Three Rules, State of Honor, Always Dreaming). However, depending on these final preps, there appears to be some sharp speed lining up for the Derby this year. Iliad has good sprint speed and Gormley has partaken in some sharp paces. State of Honor is already committed to the Derby. Irish War Cry, who I feel is essentially a run-off, is sure to bring some heat if he can spreadeagle the Wood field.

[MNslappy]

Gunnevera didn't need to win the Florida Derby to get in. Knowing that, I'm sure the trainer didn't have him 100% cranked for a lifetime best effort in that race like he will in the Derby, and I'm also sure the jock didn't push him like he will on the first Saturday in May either.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Gunnevera didn't need to win the Florida Derby to get in. Knowing that, I'm sure the trainer didn't have him 100% cranked for a lifetime best effort in that race like he will in the Derby, and I'm also sure the jock didn't push him like he will on the first Saturday in May either.

true but the horse has run a bunch of races compared to the other horses and he looked like he lost a bunch of weight in the post parade. i think he is wearing down

[arw629]

He was never going to win but the post cost him 2nd place and a much larger loss margin...why are people not focused on how bad posts 8 and out are at GP going 9 Furlongs? It's like drawing the 8 going two laps in harness racing