As harness racing sinks slowly into the sunset...

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

...we have a new USTA President who says we will continue down the same road because the USTA is doing a great job.

Not surprising, the self-described "establishment" guy is an executive at Hanover Shoe Farms. Of course the "establishment" loves what is going on -- as the USTA stat page clearly points out.

Last year was another down year for handle, and this year the rate of decline is increasing. As I write this on 3/5/17, the handle is down an inconceivable 10.24% from last year at the same time. So why are the establishment guys happy? Because the purses are up 6.36%.

So while owners (USTA membership has dropped approximately 50%) and bettors are abandoning the product at a record clip, the boys at the top of the food chain are getting richer. With less owners buying horses, the rich owners have a better chance of winning the bigger purse money supplied by casinos-who-need-harness-racing-to-stay-in-business.

Don't the breeding farms and drug-culture owners and trainers realize that eventually there will be no more game? Of course they do -- and they do care. But they do not care nearly enough to make any changes that will impact their current gravy train.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, racino owners are doing everything possible to get people away from their harness tracks so they can solicit the state legislators to eliminate the revenue killing harness racing from their books. The same is true for Yonkers Raceway where the casino owners spend a fortune marketing their casino on local TV and you would have no idea that horses raced there, also.

[upthecreek]

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/2017/03/04/know-hate-market-get-circus-off-tarmac-can-see-post-parade/

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/2017/03/04/know-hate-market-get-circus-off-tarmac-can-see-post-parade/

Everybody on the Board of Directors appreciates the need for marketing. Every one of them knows what we all know -- that the game is on the way to oblivion. None of them wants the game to end.

So what is the problem? As I said, they won't risk one penny of the money they are making now to save the game. "Let the young people find another line of work. We're making money -- NOW!

[jtschmidt]

I saw today that Langley is not in support of lower takeout. The USTA and majority of track management are jokes. Some sports books who offer -105 betting is essentially offering 4.76% takeout wagers assuming they have a good bookmaker. Tracks cannot get sided either meaning they have no interest in who wins races. They get their cut regardless. How can harness racing possibly expect to survive with 35% takeout on supers at some PA tracks. Why would that attract any young gambler? It does not take rocket science to see this.

Last weekend, the Meadowlands had a Pick 5 carryover. These are the rough numbers I calculated:

$40,000 was bet ($6,000 takeout) causing a $25,500 C/O (Meadowlands pays 4/5 which is a different issue). So $40,000 was bet into a 15% takeout.


$170,000 was bet (takeout and carryover almost perfectly negate each other). So $170,000 was bet into a 0% takeout.

The sport needs lower takeout and market the sport as a gambling game to all parties. 35% takeout is not marketable. Gambling is so popular among young people these days. I actually think the small risk big reward of certain bets (example pick 5 wagers) are marketable to the young crowd more than some sports and casino wagers.

Yes there are numerous other issues in the sport right now too, but putting out the best gambling product is a start.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

I saw today that Langley is not in support of lower takeout. The USTA and majority of track management are jokes. Some sports books who offer -105 betting is essentially offering 4.76% takeout wagers assuming they have a good bookmaker. Tracks cannot get sided either meaning they have no interest in who wins races. They get their cut regardless. How can harness racing possibly expect to survive with 35% takeout on supers at some PA tracks. Why would that attract any young gambler? It does not take rocket science to see this.

Last weekend, the Meadowlands had a Pick 5 carryover. These are the rough numbers I calculated:

$40,000 was bet ($6,000 takeout) causing a $25,500 C/O (Meadowlands pays 4/5 which is a different issue). So $40,000 was bet into a 15% takeout.


$170,000 was bet (takeout and carryover almost perfectly negate each other). So $170,000 was bet into a 0% takeout.

The sport needs lower takeout and market the sport as a gambling game to all parties. 35% takeout is not marketable. Gambling is so popular among young people these days. I actually think the small risk big reward of certain bets (example pick 5 wagers) are marketable to the young crowd more than some sports and casino wagers.

Yes there are numerous other issues in the sport right now too, but putting out the best gambling product is a start.

Sadly, your ideas are GOOD. Why, sadly? Many people have good ideas and the cumbersome Board of Directors at the USTA refuses to do anything about it.

[pandy]

The main problem with the harness gambling product, particularly on half mile and five-eighth tracks, of which there are many, is that it's way too speed favoring, and of course too chalky. Northfield Park last Saturday, 14 wire to wire winners. One night earlier last week, Yonkers, 11 wire to wire winners and of course at Yonkers in most of the races no one gets off the pylons until they hit the backstretch the second time.

Bad racing, bad product, from both a spectator and gambling perspective.

[jtschmidt]

Pandy,

I agree that the product can improve. The obvious is full fields and get rid of passing lanes. The horse shortage is an obvious issue but why were passing lanes even ever installed? I'm too young to know (22 from your neighboring town of Bethlehem).

Personally, I think race cards should be condensed, drag should be eliminated, and there should be no dead time on air. These are secondary to full fields, no post/speed bias, and lowering takeout.

JT

[pandy]

Pandy,

I agree that the product can improve. The obvious is full fields and get rid of passing lanes. The horse shortage is an obvious issue but why were passing lanes even ever installed? I'm too young to know (22 from your neighboring town of Bethlehem).

Personally, I think race cards should be condensed, drag should be eliminated, and there should be no dead time on air. These are secondary to full fields, no post/speed bias, and lowering takeout.

JT

I can't remember what year the passing lane was started, quite a long time ago. I guess it seemed like a good idea at the time, but of course now it just results in less movement during the race. As for the bias, there are only two options for the three and four turn tracks, either they would have to race at longer distances, or go back to the wood sulkies. Many harness fans don't like longer races because they're used to handicapping the mile races, and the fractions are much different when you go longer. Because of that, I think that going back to a slower sulky would be the best option. Horseplayers don't care how fast the times are, they just want competitive races where you can get a good payoff. The speed bias is a big part of the reason why the payoffs are so low. If a driver has one of the faster horses in the race and is in one of the inside posts, he can just gun the horse to the lead and the race is over. The bettors know this so they bet heavily on inside speed horses. The whole thing is messed up. We took the greatest gambling sport of all time and screwed it up with speed favoring sulkies, passing lanes, drivers leaning way back. Truly a royal screw up. Thoroughbred players may not realize this, but up until about the mid 80's, a smart handicapper and bettor had a much bigger edge betting harness than thoroughbreds. But once the speed bias took over, most of the serious harness bettors, pros, whales, switched over to the thoroughbreds.

Since you're 22 you may not have heard of Brett Pelling. He was one of the all time winningest trainers, won a ton of major stakes races, but he retired and went back to Australia with his family. Now after an 11 year hiatus he's back and should have horses racing at the Meadowlands this spring. He was interviewed by Harness Racing Update recently and I was surprised to see his remarks about the sulkies. He said that the sulkies are a problem, and also mentioned how in Australia they don't allow the drivers to lean far back. Here is the link:


http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/2017/01/08/brett-pelling-returning-u-s-resume-training-career/

[pandy]

By the way, I don't mean to infer that you can't win betting modern day harness racing. I bet a lot of harness races at many different tracks and I grind out a profit. It's still a good gambling sport if you know what you're doing. And, of course, you can bet tracks like the Meadowlands, Hoosier, Woodbine, etc., that have two turns and are not as biased, plus the pools are bigger.

On the half and five eighth tracks, you have to pick your spots carefully, but they can be beaten too. It's just not as much fun as it used to be. :)

[caper]

I try to bet almost exclusively low take out wagers now. The Western fair p4's. Woodbine p5's for the most part.

The other thing. I find woodbine is a better wagering product since they slashed purses. The faster horses moved south and there are a lot more weaker fields and suspect favorites. To me that makes for better opportunities for people willing to put the time in.

[pandy]

I try to bet almost exclusively low take out wagers now. The Western fair p4's. Woodbine p5's for the most part.

The other thing. I find woodbine is a better wagering product since they slashed purses. The faster horses moved south and there are a lot more weaker fields and suspect favorites. To me that makes for better opportunities for people willing to put the time in.

I haven't been following Woodbine but a lot of people recommend their racing.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

I haven't been following Woodbine but a lot of people recommend their racing.

I wonder how many people will play the MUST PAY pentafecta tomorrow night since the last one was the most obviously fixed race in recent history.

[Sea Biscuit]

I wonder how many people will play the MUST PAY pentafecta tomorrow night since the last one was the most obviously fixed race in recent history.


Fixed race? Just exactly how do you know that?

[baconswitchfarm]

Fixed race? Just exactly how do you know that?


Maybe he has watched the races and has seen the payouts every time they have the must pay.:lol:

[LottaKash]

I wonder how many people will play the MUST PAY pentafecta tomorrow night since the last one was the most obviously fixed race in recent history.

JHA, it would be interesting to me if you could point out a little bit more of your perceptions of that race, which was the obviously the most fixed race in history to you....;)

[Sea Biscuit]

JHA, it would be interesting to me if you could point out a little bit more of your perceptions of that race, which was the obviously the most fixed race in history to you....;)


This is the first time I heard of a Pentafecta race being fixed.:bang:

[jtschmidt]

I think more people are picking up on the fact that the 12 horse field can favor front end speed because an outer flow can be clogged by a parked leaver.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

This is the first time I heard of a Pentafecta race being fixed.:bang:

It was obvious if you saw the race. The guy who won the t-bred championship even posted about it. He was not the only one. This is what happened.

It was a 12-horse race. One of the competitors decided to stay a 16th of a mile behind at the start making it 11. The #6 horse, who was long morning line got all kinds of early and late money -- went to the front unchallenged and won easily at 3-1 as second choice. The #5, floated in to the middle of the pack and sat on the outside while half the field stacked up behind him--including the favorite.

Now, if you watch WEG races, they have these little circles on the bottom of the screen showing where each horse is at all times. It was easy to see that that there were only 5 horses that stayed on the rail the entire time. They finished 1-2-3-4-5. The pool was over $2 million.

[Sea Biscuit]

It was obvious if you saw the race. The guy who won the t-bred championship even posted about it. He was not the only one. This is what happened.

It was a 12-horse race. One of the competitors decided to stay a 16th of a mile behind at the start making it 11. The #6 horse, who was long morning line got all kinds of early and late money -- went to the front unchallenged and won easily at 3-1 as second choice. The #5, floated in to the middle of the pack and sat on the outside while half the field stacked up behind him--including the favorite.

Now, if you watch WEG races, they have these little circles on the bottom of the screen showing where each horse is at all times. It was easy to see that that there were only 5 horses that stayed on the rail the entire time. They finished 1-2-3-4-5. The pool was over $2 million.

It finished 6-4-11-7-1 and it paid $24,312 for a buck right?

Question: Would it pay 24 grand with a 3-1 shot in front if this thing had been fixed?

Stop degrading the game with your stupid conspiracy theories.

[EdZone]

It's impossible to be fix. I remember that race. I only got #2 on top with 64. I got all other horses correct. I got #11 4th and 5th instead of 3rd. I think that's pretty close. So I believe the results is very reasonable.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

It finished 6-4-11-7-1 and it paid $24,312 for a buck right?

Question: Would it pay 24 grand with a 3-1 shot in front if this thing had been fixed?

Stop degrading the game with your stupid conspiracy theories.

You are being purposely duplicitous by quoting the dollar price when it is a twenty cents bet. The payoff was NOT good. ALL betting professionals were quite clear explaining how obviously crooked the race was. I concur.

There are so many ways to bet the race when only 5 horses are alive. It would have been easy enough to check the honesty of the race by looking at betting patterns. Unfortunately racing commissions are political and they have no idea of a fixed race if they saw one. This one was obvious to all who bet the game for a living. I explained it quite succinctly.

[baconswitchfarm]

I also can't prove they fixed it the last time as it would be virtually impossible. But don't dismiss his assertion as if it is impossible and some small bettor conspiracy theory. I have bet about 40 million over the last 10 years in harness. I bet 13k last must pay at woodbine and 11k the time before. Tonight I am betting 0. All the other people I know who bet at my level are also betting nothing tonight. There will be plenty in there , but I will pass. More easy money for everyone else.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Right on all fronts.

Prove it? IMPOSSIBLE! Even if betting patterns make it obvious that the race was not run according to Hoyle, would it stand up in court? Would a jury even understand it?

I've been playing this game a lot longer than most reading this and I can state that harness racing is a lot less crooked than the average fan thinks.

Besides the guy who screams fix every time he loses a bet, and they guy who wins on tips on fixed races (who never seems to remember the bets he lost on fixed races), it goes beyond that -- waaaayyyy beyond that. I have been told by drivers that they weren't trying to win rather than to admit they drove badly. I have been told by trainers that their driver stiffed their horses rather than admit the horse wasn't as good as the thought he was.

Always remember, a tout is less likely to get you to invest with him if he tells you that he likes a horse because of his handicapping prowess. So he tells you the race is fixed...

Of course, actual racing is a lot more honest today than it was back in the day because of inflated purses due to casino money, and dwindling handles making it less profitable to do business on the track.

Best of luck to those who take the plunge tonight. Like baconswitch the winners won't be dividing up any of my money after that last crooked venture, but there will be plenty to go around. I would love to read about a PA player grabbing a big piece of the pie.

[thespaah]

I can't remember what year the passing lane was started, quite a long time ago. I guess it seemed like a good idea at the time, but of course now it just results in less movement during the race. As for the bias, there are only two options for the three and four turn tracks, either they would have to race at longer distances, or go back to the wood sulkies. Many harness fans don't like longer races because they're used to handicapping the mile races, and the fractions are much different when you go longer. Because of that, I think that going back to a slower sulky would be the best option. Horseplayers don't care how fast the times are, they just want competitive races where you can get a good payoff. The speed bias is a big part of the reason why the payoffs are so low. If a driver has one of the faster horses in the race and is in one of the inside posts, he can just gun the horse to the lead and the race is over. The bettors know this so they bet heavily on inside speed horses. The whole thing is messed up. We took the greatest gambling sport of all time and screwed it up with speed favoring sulkies, passing lanes, drivers leaning way back. Truly a royal screw up. Thoroughbred players may not realize this, but up until about the mid 80's, a smart handicapper and bettor had a much bigger edge betting harness than thoroughbreds. But once the speed bias took over, most of the serious harness bettors, pros, whales, switched over to the thoroughbreds.

Since you're 22 you may not have heard of Brett Pelling. He was one of the all time winningest trainers, won a ton of major stakes races, but he retired and went back to Australia with his family. Now after an 11 year hiatus he's back and should have horses racing at the Meadowlands this spring. He was interviewed by Harness Racing Update recently and I was surprised to see his remarks about the sulkies. He said that the sulkies are a problem, and also mentioned how in Australia they don't allow the drivers to lean far back. Here is the link:


http://www.harnessracingupdate.com/2017/01/08/brett-pelling-returning-u-s-resume-training-career/

To my recollection, the passing lanes were added a few short years after hub rails were eliminated.
As for the race bikes. I don't believe they are going anywhere.
I have an idea. Make them use inflatable tires and limit the tire pressure.
Or, the tracks couldl operate under a mandate where the surface must have a certain depth. On days with no precipitation during the race card, water must be applied to the surface within 5 minutes to post. With the best time to do this is after the warm period between races and when the next race's horses begin scoring.

[pandy]

To my recollection, the passing lanes were added a few short years after hub rails were eliminated.
As for the race bikes. I don't believe they are going anywhere.
I have an idea. Make them use inflatable tires and limit the tire pressure.
Or, the tracks couldl operate under a mandate where the surface must have a certain depth. On days with no precipitation during the race card, water must be applied to the surface within 5 minutes to post. With the best time to do this is after the warm period between races and when the next race's horses begin scoring.


Yannick Gingras was chatting with us on Facebook the other day. He agrees that the racing is too speed biased, and thinks longer distances could be the answer. I think longer distances would help alot but the problem is that many hard core harness players, the few that are left, get agitated when tracks race longer than a mile. They're used to handicapping one mile races.

Slowing the track surface could work but is not as easy as it sounds. Harness tracks drain very well in wet weather and making a deeper track means difficulty with drainage. Dan Coon, who puts many of these track surfaces in, told me that harness racing would probably be much more exciting on a synthetic track. He actually had some horses try it at Keeneland years ago and the times were about five seconds slower. But, again, that is expensive to replace an entire track surface and install a synthetic track.

The bottom line is, the industry doesn't do anything but I'm getting more and more people who are agreeing with me that if the speed bias is not eliminated, harness racing will be eliminated.

Recently at Northfield, 14 wire to wire winners in 16 races. At Yonkers, three nights in a row without a single horse going three wide! The only decent payoffs I see on a consistent basis are in the mile and a quarter trot races at Yonkers. In the last 14 mile and a quarter trotting races at Yonkers, the average win payoff was over $30 and many of the exotics were huge.

[pandy]

By the way, my best ROI this year is at Miami Valley Ohio, a 5/8's track that has no passing lane, and a longer stretch, plus a lot of 9 or 10 horse fields, and aggressive drivers. And, the favorites are only winning at 32%, well below the rest of the industry.

[LottaKash]

By the way, my best ROI this year is at Miami Valley Ohio, a 5/8's track that has no passing lane, and a longer stretch, plus a lot of 9 or 10 horse fields, and aggressive drivers. And, the favorites are only winning at 32%, well below the rest of the industry.

Shhh.. Nots so loud Pandy......

I do very well there too, and still at The Meadows as well...my kinda tracks these days...

[pandy]

Shhh.. Nots so loud Pandy......

I do very well there too, and still at The Meadows as well...my kinda tracks these days...

The Meadows is my second highest ROI this year....

I don't mind plugging the tracks, the more people that bet, the bigger the pools, the better.

[LottaKash]

The Meadows is my second highest ROI this year....

I don't mind plugging the tracks, the more people that bet, the bigger the pools, the better.

Sure Pandy, I said shhh in a good way...Love those tracks..

Now that POKIE is opening nite Sat...I imagine that the Big_M might suffer some losses now, as a result...Too close in proximity for competing for all the good horses that are still out there right now, or coming out soon...