HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 3/5

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best
racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields 10 of the 11 Turf races.

Post Time Race #1 – 11:30 PM SAT EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 11 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio:
(Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#
For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning,
but my Early selections will all be based on a static tote analysis will follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds.
I’ve used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.
Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the
Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #6 - #9 - #10
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns
when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) T……...1-3 W/ 8-7-5-11 ..............11:30 PM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1600M (8F) T …......1-2 W/ 4-10-11-6 ……..….12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1000M (5F) T............2-1W/ 5-3...................12:30 AM EST


R#4 - 1200M (6F) T……....4-6 W/ 1-9-3-8…..,,.…......1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1200M (6F) T……....4-1 W/ 9-7-10-11.............1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1400M (7F) T…........2-4 W/ 1-9-12-7…….……..2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #5 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1400M (7F) T...........5-7 W/ 2-6-8-1...............2:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 - Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1200M (6F) T.….......1-7 W/ 6-4-9-5 ……..….….3:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1400M (7F) T.….......5-2 W/ 8-10-7-2 ……........3:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #14 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1400M (7F) T.….....2-6 W/ 1-5-4-13 ……..….....4:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #9– Watch Live tote activity)


R#11 - 1080M (9F) T.…....1-4 W/ 8-2-3-7 ………….......4:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets,
but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
4)
I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.
.
.

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget! ;)

If the dividend (your return) exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, :faint:
ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners
(including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.)
are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified.
(Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1-3 W/ 8-7-5-11 – All of that one! (Even #2 Tote Watch - Fin 4th)
Live Tote Results: 1-8-5-2 – Live Dutch 13% Profit Margin – PASS
Top choice $6.30 Early & Live – $19.80 QUIN & $229.40 TRI BX (Very Generous!)

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #1 - $168,000………….$19,051,142

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1-2 W/ 4-10-11-6 All of that one! (w/#3 Tote Watch - Fin 2nd)
Live Tote Results: 1-3-2-9 – Dutch 47% Profit Margin - PASS
Top choice $7.00 Early & Live $12.40 QUIN & $140.20 TRI BX (All late action on Placer #3)

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #2 - $126,000………….$22,277,735

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2-1W/ 5-3 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 5-2-3-6 - Dutch 13% Profit Margin - PASS
3rd choice $3.70 Early & Top choice Live – $8.80 QUIN & $37.00 TRI

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #3 - $500,000………….$11,594,449

[AltonKelsey]

J Moreira

[Nitro]

R#4 - 4-6 W/ 1-9-3-8 - All of that one! (w/#10 & #2 Tote Watch - Fin 3rd & 4th)
Live Tote Results: 4-8-10-2 - Dutch 155% Profit Margin - HIT
Top choice $12.20 Early & Live $172.40 QUIN & $2,126.20 TRI BX (W/ #10)

Mr. Moreira is putting on a Show W/ 4 Straight Winners!

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #4 - $126,000………….24,561,359

[AltonKelsey]

Nothing but winners here, they know not what they are missing.

[Nitro]

R#5 - 4-1 W/ 9-7-10-11 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 4-7-9-3 – Dutch 96 % Profit Margin - HIT
Top choice $8.40 Early & Live $24.80 QUIN & $308.00 TRI BX

Solid action on the Winner! And we’re rollin’ this morning!

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #5 - $168,000………….$24,714,617

[Nitro]

R#6 - 2-4 W/ 1-9-12-7 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 9-7-12-4 – Live Dutch 78% Profit Margin - HIT
4th choice $11.60 Early & 2nd choice Live - $27.10 QUIN & $306.20 TRI BX

Mr. Moreira is now 5 for 5 this morning!

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #6 - $168,000………….$30,234,534

[Nitro]

R#7 - 5-7 W/ 2-6-8-1 – All of that one (w/#4 Tote Watch - Fin 3rd)!
Live Tote Results: 6-8-4-10 – Live Dutch 27% Profit Margin - PASS
4th choice $10.00 Early & 3rd choice Live – $21.10 QUIN & $594.60 TRI BX w/Live #4
Solid action on the Winner and Placer - beginning to end !

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #7 - $500,000………….$30,444,581

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-7 W/ 6-4-9-5 – All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 5-1-4-11 - Live Dutch 32% Profit Margin - PASS
6th choice $3.80 Early & 2nd choice Live – $42.30 QUIN & $228.00 TRI BX (Very Generous!)
Solid action on the Winner - beginning to end ! Mr. Moreira is now 6 for 7 this morning!

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #8 - $247,000………….$30,736,443

[Nitro]

R#9 - 5-2 W/ 8-10-7-2 Was #3
Live Tote Results: 7-9-3-8 - Dutch 35% Profit Margin - PASS
5th choice $79.00 Early & Live - Placer #9 went off at 363/1!!! and killed my Quin & Tri :eek:

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #9 - $247,000………….$35,062,571

[Nitro]

R#10 - 2-6 W/ 1-5-4-13 – All of that one! (w/#8 Tote Watch - Fin 2nd)!
Live Tote Results: 2-8-4-5 - Dutch 275% Profit Margin - HIT
Top choice $14.30 Early & Live - $36.60 QUIN & $298.80 TRI BX (W/ #8)

Mr. Moreira is now 7 for 9 this morning & breaks the HK record for wins on a single day!

[Nitro]

............Purse Value……..…Total Handle: (in U.S.$)

Race #10 - $247,000………...$36,857,646

[Nitro]

R#11 - 1-4 W/ 8-2-3-7 (w/#10 Tote Watch - Fin 1st as Favorite)
Live Tote Results: 10-5-4-9 - Dutch 51% Profit Margin - HIT
Out Early & 2nd choice $6.30 Live –

Mr. Joe Moreira is now 8 for 10 this morning & breaks his previous HK record for wins on a single day!

[Nitro]

It turned out to be one of my BEST days @ HK! :ThmbUp:

A fun and very profitable race card. It was Definitely worth saying up through the entire morning. Moreira was on fire and rode like a jockey on a mission.


………….Purse Value……….Total Handle: (in U.S. $)
Race #1 -- $168,000………….$19,051,142
Race #2 -- $126,000………….$22,277,735
Race #3 -- $500,000………….$11,594,449
Race #4 -- $126,000………….$24,561,359
Race #5 -- $168,000………….$24,714,617
Race #6 -- $168,000………….$30,234,534
Race #7 -- $500,000………….$30,444,581
Race #8 -- $247,000………….$30,736,443
Race #9 -- $247,000………….$35,062,571
Race #10 - $247,000………...$36,857,646
Race #11 - $350,000………...$41,269,674

Total Handle All Races…….$306,604,744

[AltonKelsey]

Followed all your live tote plays and banked

[Nitro]

Followed all your live tote plays and banked
That's great!
It certainly didn't take much this morning. By simply viewing the Early selections, watching the Live tote and in combination with Moreira's incredible performance, everything clicked just right!