as sign of good faith, posting best spot plays every day before the races go off

[Bill Cullen]

As a sign of good faith and to attract system testers, I will be posting my best spot play's picks (before the races go off) almost every day for ther next week or so in this thread and the thread entitled "Looking for system testers...":

Here are today's plays (only a play if the horse goes off at 4/1 or higher):

3 -Philadelphia- Thoroughbabe
3 -Suffolk-Nathan's Way
5-Suffolk-Wellfleet
1-River Downs-Blinkit
7-River Downs-Starina's Stripes
8-Fort Erie-Winter Whiskey

Thanks,

Bill



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[kenwoodallpromos]

I like to see running win% or ROI but most do not list. I pick rarely but will be watching. I like overlays at 3-1 to 5-1.
I consider anything over 5-1 as longshots and do not like odds on.

[JustMissed]

You had one winner out of six, Nathan's Way. Since it went off at 2-1, do you count that as a hit or not?

JM

[kenwoodallpromos]

1 winner at about $4.00, but I think your picks to show made a profit. Probably the right picks but the wrong race to bet them in.
I like show so I still like your picks.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by JustMissed
You had one winner out of six, Nathan's Way. Since it went off at 2-1, do you count that as a hit or not?

JM

No.

By the way, out of today's original six picks in the six races, 4 horses came in the money. 3 out of those four horses were non-favorites including an 8/1 shot and a 9/1 shot.

stay tuned.

Bill Cullen`

[charleslanger]

kenwoodallpromos: ...I like show so I still like your picks....
How do you bet show yourself? And have you tried the different ways in the past, like: parlays, round-robins, progressons, flat, curry, bbq? Seriously-- I'm curious re your thoughts.......
TIA

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by Bill Cullen
No.

By the way, out of today's original six picks in the six races, 4 horses came in the money. 3 out of those four horses were non-favorites including an 8/1 shot and a 9/1 shot.

stay tuned.

Bill Cullen`

Bill, not picking at your system but this can be said for many, many angles, i.e. top Bris/TSN Prime Power, top beyer, top last out speed, etc.. You know what I mean.

Continued good luck to you,

JM

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by JustMissed
Bill, not picking at your system but this can be said for many, many angles, i.e. top Bris/TSN Prime Power, top beyer, top last out speed, etc.. You know what I mean.

Continued good luck to you,

JM

I know EXACTLY what your saying. I just just trying to encourage anyone to give the system picks a chance. I hope to post (before the races happen!) at least fifty to a hundred picks over the next several weeks (maybe as long as a month or so depending on my work and family obligations).

The spot play picks I will be providing come from my number one spot play which I am firmly convinced is profitable over the long term (it has been for me literally for at least the last five years running).

I am offering to share this system with one person who will test the system and provide me with the research results. From my point of view, the person who takes this offer will be getting the much better part of the bargain. What's so good about this sytem is how adaptable it is to so many different situations. Also, it seems to get about one play per day per track.


Bill Cullen

[Light]

Bill

What system are you talking about?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Light
Bill

What system are you talking about?

It's my own system. i started today giving the picks it selects before the races go off. i will continue to do this for the next few weeks in order to demonstrate that the system is FOR REAL!

I'm looking for someone to test the system for me and give me the basic research results (ROI, impact value, winning percentage, number of plays per days, etc). In return, the person gets the system. Hopefully they will not share it with anyone else!

That's it in a nut shell.

Bill Cullen

[JustMissed]

Hey Bill, we've got plenty of computer cappers that post here that could probably run the test for you and have the results by the time Jay Leno comes on tonight.

Any of the HSH or HRT guys or our friend Formula2000 could do it for you.

You ought to post a notice and see what kinda response you get.

JM

[Light]

How many races would you need tested to be satisfied and approximately how many factors does your system use?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Light
How many races would you need tested to be satisfied and approximately how many factors does your system use?

At least 300 races. There are six factors approximately.

Bill C

[Light]

Sounds reasonable. I'd be interested but still need a couple of questions answered:

1) What type of data do you use(Bris,DRF etc)
2)Is this 300 race test to be performed on future races or do you have some sort of past racing database you want to use?
3) What time frame for results? Of course it makes a difference if we are testing past or future races.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Light
Sounds reasonable. I'd be interested but still need a couple of questions answered:

1) What type of data do you use(Bris,DRF etc)
2)Is this 300 race test to be performed on future races or do you have some sort of past racing database you want to use?
3) What time frame for results? Of course it makes a difference if we are testing past or future races.

1) Brisnet or DRF, it makes no difference
2) A minumum of at least 300 past races will do fine
3) As soon as possible

My best estimate is that the system gets between about a half play to a play per day per card. Being conservative and using a half play per day per card, you would need at least 600 racing cards to test the system for a minimum of three hundred playable races (hopefully a lot more).

Thanks,

Bill Cullen

[Buckeye]

Why would you want to "test" it?

It wins $$$ for you, right?

Today, yesterday, and tomorrow, the test is cash.

It already passed :rolleyes:

Why not humor us with the criteria without a bunch of conditions, or just keep it to yourself because it's making money. You want some kind of statistical grade or something?

I'll test it if you want. What's in it for you?

[Buckeye]

There are six factors approximately.

Approximately?

[Light]

Bill

Didn't realize it had so few plays per card. I lost alot of my database a few months ago. So I dont have that amount of cards to run it thru.

I presume the way you work your program is the hard way?I.E. looking at all the pp's of each horse manually? Then I would understand why you want a database study.

If that's the case, I know a programmer who could upon seeing your system,program it for you so it will search the entire card for a qualifier saving you the headache. It would be free. He did it for me several times. He likes doing it as he majored in programming and is a horseplayer. The only drawback is he went to school a while back and it would be in DOS.

[JustMissed]

Don't get discouraged.

Formula_2002 has thousands of races in his data base and he loves to run test.

You should post to him or send him a PM.

Formula always claims he can't beat the take so he would probably love to have your winning program.

Keep us updated on your progress.

JM

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Buckeye
Why would you want to "test" it?

It wins $$$ for you, right?

Today, yesterday, and tomorrow, the test is cash.

It already passed :rolleyes:

Why not humor us with the criteria without a bunch of conditions, or just keep it to yourself because it's making money. You want some kind of statistical grade or something?

I'll test it if you want. What's in it for you?

What's in it for me is to have the baseline stats (ROI, impact value, winning percentage. sample size. number of plays per day per card, etc) so i can can customize a betting strategy specifically tailored to the system so I can maximize profits.

The only condition I ask is that the tester keeps the system to himself.

That's it.

Bill Cullen

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Light
Bill

Didn't realize it had so few plays per card. I lost alot of my database a few months ago. So I dont have that amount of cards to run it thru.

I presume the way you work your program is the hard way?I.E. looking at all the pp's of each horse manually? Then I would understand why you want a database study.

If that's the case, I know a programmer who could upon seeing your system,program it for you so it will search the entire card for a qualifier saving you the headache. It would be free. He did it for me several times. He likes doing it as he majored in programming and is a horseplayer. The only drawback is he went to school a while back and it would be in DOS.

I don't have a database of pp's. Does your porgrammign friend?

Bill C

[Bill Cullen]

System picks for Wednesay, 7-28-2004:

3rd race at Monmouth - Is that you

3 race at Suffolk - Betcha's Brat

6th race at Delmar - Cozy Guy

Remember, it's only a system pick at 4/1 or higher.

Thanks,

Bill Cullen

[Light]

Don't know what he keeps in his database. He's more of a programmer than a tester.

[Bill Cullen]

The opportunity to test the system is now closed. The position is now filled.

I will continue to post the system picks from time to time until I have posted at least fifty picks like I said I would.

Thanks,

Bill Cullen

[Bill Cullen]

Today's system picks for 7-29-2204 (remember, only at 4/1 or higher are they a system play):

3rd - Arlington- Illini Queen

9th Arlington - Iceanwater

2nd - Del Mar - Secret Caper

[Bill Cullen]

Someone asked me why my system picks are only for some tracks and not others. The reason is that I use the Racing Form for the New York City region which I buy a hard copy of a few times a week.

If someone wants me to post system picks for other tracks not covered by the Racing Form for the New York City region, then they will have to get me access to other past performances for those other tracks. I would then gladly generate and post system picks for those other tracks as well.

By the way it takes me a good 20 minutes to cover half a dozen tracks, so there's some real work involved here if I start generating system picks for other tracks as well.


Thanks,

Bill Cullen

[Light]

Bill

Check for 2 PM's from me.

[Bill Cullen]

Remember: these are only system picks if they go off at 4/1 or higher.

5th race at Saratoga- Speckled Spice

7th race at Saratoga - Bishop Court Hill

8th at Finger Lakes - Atlantis Crusader

Special Note: The following horse does not technicaly meet all the system's rules (it falls short on one rule), The horse does meet the essential rules of the system (the rules that makes the system unique) and is so much in the spirit of what the system looks for that I have included the horse anyway. From my point of view the following horse is by far the best bet of the day of all four horses listed in this post.

9th race at Saratoga - Shesasmokin

[Bill Cullen]

system picks: Remember, it's only a system pick if 4/1 or higher.

3rd race at Saratoga- Heir D' Twine

4th race at Ellis - Rurd

[PaceAdvantage]

Is there a good reason why you are posting the same exact material in two different places on the board?

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Is there a good reason why you are posting the same exact material in two different places on the board?

Hello Admin,

I felt I originally posted it in the wrong place so I kept posting it in two places. If you want me too (and I'm all too aware of limited server resources), I will post the system picks only in the thread with the largest number of replies (which is the in the Selections area: "as sign of good faith.....").

Thanks,

Bill

[lefthandlow]

are there any picks? i'm losing my good faith along with some $$$ LL

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by lefthandlow
are there any picks? i'm losing my good faith along with some $$$ LL

The system picks can now be found in the Selections discussion under the thread "as sign of good faith....."

Bill C

[Bill Cullen]

Remember, it's only a system bet at 4/1 or higher.

5th race at Saratroga - Lonely Groom

[Bill Cullen]

A number of folks have asked me if I could increase the rate of plays so I loosened up some of the non-core selection rules of the system. The core rules, the ones that make the system unique, are still intact. This in fact is the way I play the sysytem so all the picks below I will have bets on (unless something like work or family obligations prevents me from getting some bets down)


Remember, the following are only system picks if they go off at 4/1 or higher:
-
9th race at Delaware - #3

5th race at Philadelphia - Sale the Atlantic

8th race at Philadelphia - Sash

9th race at Philadelphia - Blind Canyon

2nd race at Finger L:akes - Prize Performer

&th race at Finger Lakes - Burlap

3rd at Mountaineer - Axis

4th at Mountaineer - Just Me

9th at Suffolk - Gold Finger

4th at River Downs - #1

6th at River Downs - World Tour

7th at Great Lakes - Big Whinnying

9th at Great Lakes - #4

[Bill Cullen]

Recent research done on this system has shown that it does not generate a positive ROI.

Therefore, selections generated by this system will no longer be posted.

Thanks,

Bill Cullen

[hurrikane]

too bad Bill...better luck next time.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
too bad Bill...better luck next time.

Thanks for the encouragement.

Bill C

[kenwoodallpromos]

Bummer.