Mdn to NW1X

[Valuist]

Twice in the past few days, I've heard horsebettors say they NEVER bet a recent Mdn winner going in its first try vs NW1X. Somebody on TVG mentioned it the other day and I heard a guy (not Ralph) on Race Day Las Vegas say it. I do not believe in following rules that rigid. Sure there's plenty of times these horses are overbet, but there's also plenty of live contenders who are overlays. I've seen some perennial maiden finally "get it", and come right back with another win. Judge each horse and maiden race individually; handicapping is about specifics; not generalities.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have to agree with you... Never is a long time.

Besides, the natural progression for an upcoming superstar is MSW, NW1, NW2 etc. After they are proven superstars, if you go back to their early races you will find that this is just how they went through the ranks.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[cj]

I find the best value on these horses are those that broke their maiden later on, like after 6, 7, or even 8 starts. When entered back with competitive figures, these horses are great bets. It is especially potent in the winter time when the NW1 races are populated by the same losers race after race.

[JustMissed]

I just snatched this from Turfpedia.com. Kinda interesting that Item 2 includes JBMs. Interesting angle.

"The main contenders of nonwinners-once allowance races emerge from three groups:

1. Any lightly raced 3YO that has finished close in good time in few attempts under today's conditions or better. An acceptable finish in a stakes race is especially attractive, but not definitive.
2. A recent impressive 3YO maiden graduate, with extra credit to the nicely bred types from leading stables. "Lightly raced," means fewer than a dozen starts. If the race is restricted to horses 4up, prefer the 4YOs.
3. Younger horses (3YOs) whose recent efforts or clockings under similar allowance conditions indicate continued or dramatic development.

One step removed from horses' introduction to the allowances are the next eligibility conditions in the sequence:"

JM

:)

[delayjf]

One of my favorite plays is FTS winner entered in NW1 after a big win (two length or more from off the pace), but with a Beyer that is about 10 points lower the the high Beyer in the Alw race. the Logic here is that he was not extended in MSW win and that Lightly raced horses like this are able to improve from race to race in leaps and bounds. Take a look at the Derby field and see how many horses made big improvement on their Beyers after their first win. 15 to 20 point is not uncommon. If a horse earns a high Beyer ( 90+) in his maiden win, they are not as likely to improve, quite a few bounce in fact.

[Tuffmug]

Check the pace of that recent maiden win. If it was weak relative to what he'll face in the N1x field then he is a pass. Yes, the future superstars will win their first N1x, but there are damn few superstars. You will save a lot of money by eliminating them for the win first out in N1x company.

[bettheoverlay]

In turf NW1, I look for horses who broke their maiden last out in their first try on the turf. Often run big again, especially in fields full of 1 for 12 horses.

[plainolebill]

Here's one I bet against. Running line comment from FTS MSW win: "Broke slowly". These horses are always overbet because everyone is expecting big improvement and from personal observation they tend to break alertly and get burned up on the pace in their next race.

[Valuist]

Tuffmug-

I agree the pace can give you a good idea. But that's assuming the Maiden winner was on or pressing the pace. If he's closing then it isn't a factor, unless the race totally fell apart and he inherited the lead.

[delayjf]

My experience is simply to disregard the low Beyer and the pace figure as well. Again I'm betting that the horse in question is going to improve and they are certainly eligible.

Also, I want a price 10-1 or more. I've caught several bombs with this play.