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letswastemoney
03-01-2017, 10:36 PM
It has to be a fast pace right?

:1: Huracan Americo - Despite coming from Peru, this is an American pedigree. Not expecting much in any case.

:2: Gunnevera - As long as the frontrunners do not scratch, this is a great opportunity. He can cut the corner on the first turn while the speed types get hung wide. If he's good enough, the style and pace setup are right.

:3: Quinientos - It's hard to go against Social Inclusion's owner, as I was a fan, but this horse is overmatched.

:4: Talk Logistics - Joe Bravo gets on. More conservative tactics are likely in store. While taking back early will help, he's not good enough to pull off the win. Maybe a check.

:5: Beasley - If the early speed of Three Rules doesn't wipe him out early, Takaful will.

:6: Practical Joke - Like with Gunnevera, the setup will be good for him here. Jose Ortiz can let the speed go and tuck in just behind. Solid chance to win.

:7: Three Rules - Talented. The question is whether he can win a top race going two turns against quality competition. If he tries to show speed though, Beasley and Takaful will be around.

:8: Irish War Cry - He certainly is getting a lot of attention, but maybe too much? This runner had an uncontested lead in the Holy Bull and converted it into a win. Workout reports give a glowing review. Post 8 is not easy going two turns at Gulfstream.

:9: Made You Look - Wild card without any dirt starts for Pletcher. Post 9 doesn't help.

:10: Takaful - Bernardini is a fine route sire, but this horse acts like a crack sprinter. Connections have no choice but to send from Post 10, and he's not going to clear without expending a lot of energy.

:11: Lookin for Eight - The post position will eliminate this maiden winner on the first turn.

------

Final Thoughts

Gunnevera and Practical Joke have the right running style and posts. One of them should pull it off. I'll give Gunnevera a slight edge.

Irish War Cry third.

PowerUpPaynter
03-01-2017, 11:08 PM
All things considered if Irish War Cry was to win do you think at that point he becomes the #1 contender for the Derby?

letswastemoney
03-01-2017, 11:57 PM
All things considered if Irish War Cry was to win do you think at that point he becomes the #1 contender for the Derby? Yes I think so, at least until I see the next Santa Anita or Oaklawn prep race. I have high hopes for American Anthem.

The extra amount of attention Curlin babies receive on social media is a bit of a turn off though.

boys at tosconova
03-02-2017, 01:39 AM
i'm playing beasley w/ the 3 figs. looks like he's moving forward for a another big effort if he's good enough. have to like the 20-1 odds you'll get

PowerUpPaynter
03-02-2017, 08:04 AM
Yes I think so, at least until I see the next Santa Anita or Oaklawn prep race. I have high hopes for American Anthem.

The extra amount of attention Curlin babies receive on social media is a bit of a turn off though.

Problem with American Anthem is he will try to win the derby off only 4 starts only 2 horses in the last 99 years have done so. I like American Anthem too but history like that almost makes him a toss from the win spot...

letswastemoney
03-03-2017, 12:16 AM
i'm playing beasley w/ the 3 figs. looks like he's moving forward for a another big effort if he's good enough. have to like the 20-1 odds you'll getI've read there's a chance Beasley could scratch. It would change how I view the pace if he left.

boys at tosconova
03-03-2017, 01:23 AM
I've read there's a chance Beasley could scratch. It would change how I view the pace if he left.

i hope not. i really fancy his chances at long odds. i think he's a live piece coming out of a great race vs pletcher's horse 1st time on the route. imo he doesn't have to argue the pace. he looks like he can get position close to the front w/o being on the lead.

i'm looking for a nice number with the horse finishing 1st or 2nd..i really think he's going to be an overlay and it's easy to expect more from him.

Mr. Pick 5
03-03-2017, 01:25 AM
Irish war cry annoys me...people act like this horse is the next coming....

ReplayRandall
03-03-2017, 01:41 AM
Track will be very fast as always for the big race days at GP. On that note, my play will be the :7: Three Rules 12-1, with Luis Saez going wire-to-wire.....$$$

boys at tosconova
03-03-2017, 01:47 AM
Track will be very fast as always for the big race days at GP. On that note, my play will be the :7: Three Rules 12-1, with Luis Saez going wire-to-wire.....$$$

ridiculously stupid high ML odds on the 7. there's no chance you'll get 12-1 on the horse.

ReplayRandall
03-03-2017, 01:54 AM
ridiculously stupid high ML odds on the 7. there's no chance you'll get 12-1 on the horse.
Just like you'll never see 20-1 on Beasley.....even though the M/L is 6-1.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i'm playing beasley w/ the 3 figs. looks like he's moving forward for a another big effort if he's good enough. have to like the 20-1 odds you'll get

boys at tosconova
03-03-2017, 02:01 AM
Just like you'll never see 20-1 on Beasley.....even though the M/L is 6-1.

i believe you're wrong.....beasley is buried in this deep race. he will be overlooked.

the 7 wasn't even 8-1 in the G1 breeders race and odds on or less in every other race. the horse prolly won;t even be 5-1

ReplayRandall
03-03-2017, 02:05 AM
beasley is buried
Only part of your post I agree with.....Toss for me.

boys at tosconova
03-03-2017, 02:45 AM
Only part of your post I agree with.....Toss for me.

that's why he will drift and be an overlay. beasley doesn't have the body of work of some of these horses. he will most certainly be overlooked or discounted because most people are too lazy to do good handicapping. if you look deeper you see that his allowance race wasn't loss to a schlub. he ran a great race vs battalion runner who might be pletcher's best horse. (battalion runner will also prolly run in the fla derby and be low odds to boot)

beasley is eligible to improve more as well. he's trending up...2nd on the route in his 3rd lifetime start. beasley is very "live" here and everything you want in a longshot. i hope it comes in 5-7. i will have that...and really...i take ML odds with a grain of salt and lol most of this time with them because they're so awfully wrong

PowerUpPaynter
03-03-2017, 08:00 AM
Irish war cry annoys me...people act like this horse is the next coming....

I mean someone needs to be that horse... He hasnt really done much wrong, and he is undefeated and healthy. That could change at any moment but as of now he or Mastery need to be the next one...

PowerUpPaynter
03-03-2017, 08:04 AM
There is a pretty good horse in this race no one mentioned once.... Practical Joke.

boys at tosconova
03-03-2017, 09:12 AM
There is a pretty good horse in this race no one mentioned once.... Practical Joke.

the only thing not to like is the probable short price and 3 month layoff. i know brown usually has them ready though.

horse might be the best in the race if he retains his 2yr form. it's hard not to like everything else.

boys at tosconova
03-03-2017, 09:29 AM
i really wonder what the odds will be in this race.

irish will be overbet.. 8-5 2-1? can;t see him being even money but you never know.

gunnavera/practical/three rules should take a ton of $$$ as well...can't envision any of them going off higher than 5-1..maybe three rules but the horse was just 4/5 in a G2 off a layoff narrowly missing. all three of these horses look like 5-2 / 3-1 shots....and the same really can be said for the irish imo.

can;t play takaful at any odds off of his last.....pletcher seems to testing the dirt waters and i don't know how much $$$ he'll take..seems dicy..could menace but the horses seems to have found a tough spot....looking for eights post kills him, not to mention a possible bounce and tough comp.

hurracan, quinotos, and talk logistics really can;t be seriously played.

Mr. Pick 5
03-03-2017, 11:27 AM
I mean someone needs to be that horse... He hasnt really done much wrong, and he is undefeated and healthy. That could change at any moment but as of now he or Mastery need to be the next one...

Yea I know what you're saying....I hope none are the next one.....I'm looking/hoping for a derby bomb this year, not a fifth straight favorite

bpiets
03-03-2017, 01:11 PM
made you look certainly has what it takes...lol:9:

boys at tosconova
03-03-2017, 06:40 PM
made you look certainly has what it takes...lol:9:

i looked. horse seems to need a lot of things to happen to menace here. prolly be last or close to it early on and you're asking him to tackle some really classy dirt horses that will be closing in front of him.

good news is he has nice turf form, bad news is pletcher loves to throw chit at the wall and hope for some of it to stick. he's had previous poor results w/ this angle. and the horse is almost a toss because of it.

horse is in a tough spot imo. could close for 4th/5th and that kind of race would still be considered a success

arw629
03-03-2017, 08:09 PM
that's why he will drift and be an overlay. beasley doesn't have the body of work of some of these horses. he will most certainly be overlooked or discounted because most people are too lazy to do good handicapping. if you look deeper you see that his allowance race wasn't loss to a schlub. he ran a great race vs battalion runner who might be pletcher's best horse. (battalion runner will also prolly run in the fla derby and be low odds to boot)

beasley is eligible to improve more as well. he's trending up...2nd on the route in his 3rd lifetime start. beasley is very "live" here and everything you want in a longshot. i hope it comes in 5-7. i will have that...and really...i take ML odds with a grain of salt and lol most of this time with them because they're so awfully wrong

Beasley is likely to scratch and go to Tampa

boys at tosconova
03-03-2017, 08:12 PM
Beasley is likely to scratch and go to Tampa

i hope he does. there are 4 strong horses in here. can't imagine the tb derby being this strong

arw629
03-03-2017, 08:32 PM
i hope he does. there are 4 strong horses in here. can't imagine the tb derby being this strong

I completely disagree ...Irish War Cry is a nice horse but I think Classic Empire wasn't the same horse in the Holy Bull and the field Irish War Cry beat wasn't really all that ....I'm taking Irish War Cry bc I think he is a cut above the rest ....Gunnevera actually lost a half of a length to Irish War Cry in the stretch in the Holy Bull and despite the extra speed in the race I can't take him at odds less than 5-1...1,3,4 are impossible despite the 1 getting a lot of attention from public handicappers winning a stake vs older going 10 furs but not imposible underneath...5 I'm assuming is scratching....i think Practical Joke has a shot but I think is better suited 1 turn and I also have a sneaking suspicion that his best races are behind him but we will see ...i think Takaful shipped in and Pletcher is trying Made You Look on dirt for the similar reason that this group isn't that good and it won't take a stellar effort to run in the money in a race with derby points and a nice purse....Three Rules I doubt will get the distance and Lookin for Eight is a wildcard in my eyes...i like 5he switch to Casse and if someone could blow up the tote board I'd go here ....I like Irish War Cry on top bc he is just better as the rest of the field has many flaws ...and yes I know he got away with an easy lead last time but he has won from off the pace before. ..he will be close to the leaders who I will expect will tire late late in the race and Irish war cry will cruise to victory without much asking

arw629
03-03-2017, 08:38 PM
i looked. horse seems to need a lot of things to happen to menace here. prolly be last or close to it early on and you're asking him to tackle some really classy dirt horses that will be closing in front of him.

good news is he has nice turf form, bad news is pletcher loves to throw chit at the wall and hope for some of it to stick. he's had previous poor results w/ this angle. and the horse is almost a toss because of it.

horse is in a tough spot imo. could close for 4th/5th and that kind of race would still be considered a success


Pletcher is 24% turf to dirt in 256 tries and 58% itm...

letswastemoney
03-03-2017, 08:42 PM
Made You Look has little shot from Post 9 in a 1 1/16th-mile Gulfstream dirt route. It's too hard for a normal horse to overcome. It doesn't happen often anyway.

*But, maybe he can pick up a piece.

PizzaCat
03-04-2017, 11:55 AM
Beasley is scratched and pointed towards the TB derby now.

Valuist
03-04-2017, 12:20 PM
Have to play against Irish War Cry off that last race. It was a mile and a sixteenth at GP, he cleared off with an easy lead and slow pace, then had the short finish line. He could win today, but is almost a certain underlay.

BTW, why the need to run 13 races? Save a couple of the stakes for the Sunday cards, which have come up pretty weak so far.

lamboguy
03-04-2017, 12:35 PM
where was ELAREEB the first time he ran at Parx when i was all in on him? he finished FOURTH! today he is favored in the Gotham.

IRISH WAR CRY was also Maryland based for the start of his career. i think this Jersey bred is the real deal today and has a great trainer as well.

Valuist
03-04-2017, 12:43 PM
where was ELAREEB the first time he ran at Parx when i was all in on him? he finished FOURTH! today he is favored in the Gotham.

IRISH WAR CRY was also Maryland based for the start of his career. i think this Jersey bred is the real deal today and has a great trainer as well.

There have been many great horses who lost the first start of their careers, including Secretariat, Alysheba and American Pharoah.

Robert Fischer
03-04-2017, 12:48 PM
FOY is a nice 3yo prep stakes

I see four or five horses here with potentially positive value to a ticket. Namely in vertical exotics (particularly 3rd/4th in trifecta, superfecta, maybe 2nd in an exacta if it's your lucky day)


:1: Huracan Americo - Despite coming from Peru, this is an American pedigree. Not expecting much in any case.
Tomcito came from the same crew, and finished 3rd vs. better in the Florida Derby(2008 Big Brown, Smooth Air). 50/1ml and a good post draw.


:3: Quinientos - It's hard to go against Social Inclusion's owner, as I was a fan, but this horse is overmatched.
Badly over matched, finishes with relative interest, slow-to-change in mdn score but finished solidly when changed. Draws well. 50/1 ml. Eligible to 'suck-up' and finish 3rd or 4th should the outside pace collapse.


:4: Talk Logistics - Joe Bravo gets on. More conservative tactics are likely in store. While taking back early will help, he's not good enough to pull off the win. Maybe a check.

LWM hit the nail on the head with the quoted comment above.


:7: Three Rules - Talented. The question is whether he can win a top race going two turns against quality competition. If he tries to show speed though, Beasley and Takaful will be around.
Scratch of Beasley moves this one up in the pecking order (and a path(or more-E/PBeasley) closer to the rail). Of these 5 value adds, this is the only horse who poses any tangible 'Win' threat, as well as the most 'Exacta' threat. Also offers potentially the worst value if he becomes the wise-guy horse. Worth mentioning as part of this group of 5.


:9: Made You Look - Wild card without any dirt starts for Pletcher. Post 9 doesn't help.
May well be significantly more talented than 3 others on this list. Draws wide, but doesn't necessarily lose insurmountable ground/energy early if Johnny V. takes back and if the pace is hot.

rsetup
03-04-2017, 01:53 PM
.Gunnevera actually lost a half of a length to Irish War Cry in the stretch in the Holy Bull

It was actually 1/4 length per the charts. The forest is right in front of you.

Tom
03-04-2017, 03:36 PM
Accuracy from GP?
Seriously?

Robert Fischer
03-04-2017, 06:46 PM
It was actually 1/4 length per the charts. The forest is right in front of you.

i won't complain if it's 'Wake Forest' in front of G...

Robert Fischer
03-04-2017, 06:51 PM
:):):)

guess this is what 'weekend warrior' feels like...

Tom
03-04-2017, 07:03 PM
I'd point Beasy towards a soft allowance race.:rolleyes:

Tom
03-04-2017, 07:17 PM
What happens if theses horse turn 4 before the GP wizards get this race off?

Robert Fischer
03-04-2017, 07:20 PM
What happens if theses horse turn 4 before the GP wizards get this race off?

:lol::lol: only 5minutes+ late

Robert Fischer
03-04-2017, 07:26 PM
lady guinevere doth thou protest too much, thy girl's name for a colt?



:4: Talk Logistics - Joe Bravo gets on. More conservative tactics are likely in store. While taking back early will help, he's not good enough to pull off the win. Maybe a check.


lets make some noise for LWM hitting the nail on the head!:4: 4th @90-1 :coffee: :headbanger:
*air horn*

arw629
03-04-2017, 07:56 PM
I could not have been more wrong about today's races

dilanesp
03-04-2017, 09:51 PM
I was really impressed. Practical Joke was making a winning move and Gunnavera went right by him.

boys at tosconova
03-05-2017, 02:19 AM
I was really impressed. Practical Joke was making a winning move and Gunnavera went right by him.

i was thinking the same thing. i guess we can say "irish war cry is off the derby trail"

really shocked IWC took so much $$$$

PhantomOnTour
03-07-2017, 07:14 PM
Just read that Huracan Americo died