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sbcaris
03-01-2017, 12:53 PM
Here is an interesting bit of data concerning the Ky Derby winning horse's last out Beyer fig before the Derby. 1992-2016

From 1992 to 2006 there were 13 Ky Derby winners whose last out Beyer fig before the Ky Derby was 100 or higher. Only 2 winners had lower (Sea Hero 91 and Giacomo 95).

From 2007 to 2016 there were only 3 winners whose last out Beyer fig was 100 or greater (American Pharaoh, California Chrome and Big Brown). 7 of the last 10 Ky Derby winners had a last out Beyer figure less than 100. The above is probably a new trend and a complete reversal of the previous 15 years where almost every Derby winner had a last out Beyer greater than 99.

Also, 2 of the 3 exceptions California Chrome and American Pharaoh were very extraordinary runners-Chrome the all time leading money winner and Pharaoh the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

DeltaLover
03-01-2017, 01:53 PM
Here is an interesting bit of data concerning the Ky Derby winning horse's last out Beyer fig before the Derby. 1992-2016

From 1992 to 2006 there were 13 Ky Derby winners whose last out Beyer fig before the Ky Derby was 100 or higher. Only 2 winners had lower (Sea Hero 91 and Giacomo 95).

From 2007 to 2016 there were only 3 winners whose last out Beyer fig was 100 or greater (American Pharaoh, California Chrome and Big Brown). 7 of the last 10 Ky Derby winners had a last out Beyer figure less than 100. The above is probably a new trend and a complete reversal of the previous 15 years where almost every Derby winner had a last out Beyer greater than 99.

Also, 2 of the 3 exceptions California Chrome and American Pharaoh were very extraordinary runners-Chrome the all time leading money winner and Pharaoh the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

What is that you find interesting about this? What is its applicability to betting and handicapping?

Raider
03-01-2017, 02:53 PM
What is that you find interesting about this? What is its applicability to betting and handicapping?-

Without knowing how many horses in the derby from 2007-2016 had last out of 100 or greater there is no applcability. all he is saying is that horses are slower now.

Spalding No!
03-01-2017, 03:06 PM
Here is an interesting bit of data concerning the Ky Derby winning horse's last out Beyer fig before the Derby. 1992-2016

From 1992 to 2006 there were 13 Ky Derby winners whose last out Beyer fig before the Ky Derby was 100 or higher. Only 2 winners had lower (Sea Hero 91 and Giacomo 95).

From 2007 to 2016 there were only 3 winners whose last out Beyer fig was 100 or greater (American Pharaoh, California Chrome and Big Brown). 7 of the last 10 Ky Derby winners had a last out Beyer figure less than 100. The above is probably a new trend and a complete reversal of the previous 15 years where almost every Derby winner had a last out Beyer greater than 99.

Also, 2 of the 3 exceptions California Chrome and American Pharaoh were very extraordinary runners-Chrome the all time leading money winner and Pharaoh the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.
Perhaps a function of the concurrent trend of a 2-prep regimen for the Derby. Modern trainer's probably figure that a horse can only maintain peak form for a single start.

sbcaris
03-01-2017, 03:20 PM
There is applicability regarding the above post which clearly shows a decline in winning Beyer figures as seen over the last 10 years. Horses that come into the Derby with big Beyer figs in their last start are generally poor risks (at least over the last 10 years). Here are a few examples:

2016- Exaggerator had the highest last out Beyer fig of 103 and lost in his bid for the roses. He ran second.

2015- Materiality had the highest last out Beyer fig of 110 and ran out of the money.

2013-Goldencents had the highest last out Beyer fig (105) and finished out of the money.

2012-Bodemeister had the highest last out Beyer fig (108) and lost in his bid for the roses. He did come in second.

2011-Archarcharch and Nehro were tied for the highest last out Beyer fig (98 each). Archarcharch ran out of the money and Nehro ran second.

2010-Sidneys Candy and Devil May Care were tied for the highest last out Beyer with 100 each. Both ran out of the money

2009-Dunkirk had the highest at 108 and ran out of the money

2007-Curlin had the highest at 103 and ran third.

The horse coming into the Derby with the highest last out Beyer figure has not had a good showing in the last 10 years. ONLY two such animals have managed to win the roses in the last decade: California Chrome and Big Brown.

I made a mistake in my above post by not seeing that Materiality had the highest last out Beyer fig in the 2015 Ky Derby (not American Pharaoh)

The rational for the above may be that those coming in with the highest last out effort peaked too early

Raider
03-01-2017, 08:43 PM
so in the last ten years the eight horses with the highest speed figures LOST
and only three winners had speed figures of over 100. the trend for fewer races before the derby?

sbcaris
03-01-2017, 08:57 PM
Yes, 2 starts at age 3 seems to be an advantage. American Pharaoh, the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed, fit this pattern and he only had 5 lifetime starts before the run for the roses.

PowerUpPaynter
03-01-2017, 10:17 PM
isnt it true that only 2 horses in the last 99 years won the derby with only 4 previous starts?

Stoleitbreezing
03-04-2017, 06:39 PM
isnt it true that only 2 horses in the last 99 years won the derby with only 4 previous starts?


I recall reading this in Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen over on bloodhorse. He also mentioned that both winners had NEVER sprinted. a horse like ONE LINER won't have enough "bottom" going to the Derby.

Run Nicholas Run
03-04-2017, 08:24 PM
I recall reading this in Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen over on bloodhorse. He also mentioned that both winners had NEVER sprinted. a horse like ONE LINER won't have enough "bottom" going to the Derby.

he is a toss out anyway and the added trends support that .

cj
03-04-2017, 10:02 PM
Isn't possible the Beyer methodology has changed and altered the stats as much as anything changing with the horses?

f2tornado
03-04-2017, 11:10 PM
...but hit the board half the time.

rsetup
03-04-2017, 11:25 PM
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Without knowing how many horses in the derby from 2007-2016 had last out of 100 or greater there is no applcability. all he is saying is that horses are slower now.

Actually, he's saying that 'horses are slower now' based on an ad hoc method that is anything but statistically rigorous.