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View Full Version : Louisiana & New York Prep Seasons Talent Starved in 2017


PowerUpPaynter
02-27-2017, 08:02 PM
Good Day,

I gotta say this prep season thus far has a weird feel to it. Besides the complete and total lack of buzz, the talent is concentrated in Florida and it looks like Oaklawn could be a strong group too. California is OK but probably not as good as some of the past few years. But man after watching the Risen Star that is just a very weak bunch of horses. Id take Gunnevera running backwards over anything in that race. The New York prep season and Louisiana are completely talent starved. Im very curious if some of these Florida stationed horses will ship in for the Louisiana Derby and Wood Memorial to find a softer spot and pick up the derby points necessary to get in.


Off the top of my head, right now prepping in Florida we have:

McCraken
Irish War Cry
Practical Joke
Classic Empire
Gunnevera
Battalion Runner
Tapwrit
Beasley
Three Rules
Wild Shot
Favorable Outcome
No Dozing
Sonic Mule
Fact Finding
Malagacy
Always Dreaming


I mean there is literally one horse of note in NY with El Areeb and the Louisiana horses just seem pathetic. Girvin? - ha give me a break.

Food for thought, Cheers.

Spalding No!
02-27-2017, 10:10 PM
I think you are underestimating Girvin simply because until this weekend was a virtual unknown. However, his speed figures for the Risen Star are competitive with most of the name horse's who have won preps thus far this year.

Furthermore, on strict form, he compares well. McCraken defeated Guest Suite by 5 lengths in the Street Sense last year, and Girvin beat Guest Suite by about 5 lengths on Saturday. McCraken defeated Remsen runner-up No Dozing by 10 lengths in the Sam Davis. Girvin beat the Remsen winner Mo Town by 10 lengths in the Risen Star.

As for the other regions, it should be no surprise that Florida is top heavy early in the year. That is the case every year. Colts of classic potential rarely winter in NY and KY, only competing in the preps there when spring arrives. Historically, most horses that compete in the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial make their early starts in Florida.

Meanwhile, I think you overestimate CA horses. All the races there thus far have had the look of first condition allowance races at best and maiden special weights at worst. Gormley has a lot to do to make up the double digit length loss in the BC Juvenile on his home track. Mastery has yet to start. Meanwhile, the barometer for the region is Irap. He is a maiden, and yet he has placed behind Mastery in a Grade 1 and Royal Mo in a Grade 3. Its curious then that in his last two maiden special weight appearances (prior to each of those stakes appearances) he has failed to hit-the-board. To me that suggests that the maiden special weight races in CA are not much different from the stakes events. That's not a positive observation. And then lo and behold, he ships to Sunland Park and fails there, too.

One CA horse who may creep up to the top of the heap (if he isn't burnt out along the way) is So Conflated. He's supposed to go in the Gotham in NY, so we will get another line on how the regions compare with one another this weekend.

VigorsTheGrey
02-27-2017, 11:14 PM
In the West, Mastery, Dabster and Reach the World among others..

menifee
02-27-2017, 11:19 PM
Good points - I am in agreement. It seems like the La and NY circuits have been like this for a few years now.

I've always been confused why this is - you would think the Fairgrounds circuit and the NY circuit would attract some horses as I think those are fairer surfaces.

Spalding No!
02-27-2017, 11:24 PM
In the West, Mastery, Dabster and Reach the World among others..
I think Dabster might do something down the road, but it took him 30 days to work again following his second maiden triumph and now he hasn't work back in almost 2 weeks. Not a good sign, considering that Reach The World came out of that same maiden race and worked once, then broke his maiden, and has now worked back twice.

Reach The World is a bit behind the eight ball with no 2yo experience. His maiden race was full of what look to be career maidens.

Mastery worked today in an absolutely pedestrian time (6f 1:15). Can't imagine the trainer is pleased with that.

menifee
02-27-2017, 11:27 PM
Irish Freedom is the horse to watch from the west.

Spalding No!
02-27-2017, 11:34 PM
Irish Freedom is the horse to watch from the west.
Ironically, he beat the same horses in his maiden in August that Reach The World beat in his maiden win this month (i.e., 6 months ago). He also beat half the field from the recent Robert Lewis, including the winner.

Despite the inactivity, he is just as much in the thick (or thin) of it as any colt in California right now.

An interesting development is American Anthem is being pointed to the Rebel at Oaklawn. He is owned in part by Winstar Farm and China Horse Club, which also own the Southwest winner (One Liner). I wonder if One Liner will end up elsewhere.

VigorsTheGrey
02-27-2017, 11:38 PM
Maybe the Kentucky Derby is too early in the cycle of today's horses to be what is best...A horse peaks in performance around 4.5 years...people are paying a lot of money now for these horses...anywhere from between 200k to 1.2 million....does it really make sense to rush these superior animals...? Look at Arrogate and what a great horse he is turning out to be...Maybe the top trainers are thinking that the Triple crown races don't make all that much sense development wise for the horses...

LottaKash
02-28-2017, 12:45 AM
I am always interested and intrigued by a young one that has done all that was asked of him so far...

I like that "AL AREEB" has extended his winning margin, from stretch call to the wire, in each of his last four races.....

I'd sure like to know more about his breeding and his connections tho...

Could be anything, imo...... I will follow enthusiastically... :jump:

PowerUpPaynter
02-28-2017, 08:39 AM
I think you are underestimating Girvin simply because until this weekend was a virtual unknown. However, his speed figures for the Risen Star are competitive with most of the name horse's who have won preps thus far this year.

Furthermore, on strict form, he compares well. McCraken defeated Guest Suite by 5 lengths in the Street Sense last year, and Girvin beat Guest Suite by about 5 lengths on Saturday. McCraken defeated Remsen runner-up No Dozing by 10 lengths in the Sam Davis. Girvin beat the Remsen winner Mo Town by 10 lengths in the Risen Star.

As for the other regions, it should be no surprise that Florida is top heavy early in the year. That is the case every year. Colts of classic potential rarely winter in NY and KY, only competing in the preps there when spring arrives. Historically, most horses that compete in the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial make their early starts in Florida.

Meanwhile, I think you overestimate CA horses. All the races there thus far have had the look of first condition allowance races at best and maiden special weights at worst. Gormley has a lot to do to make up the double digit length loss in the BC Juvenile on his home track. Mastery has yet to start. Meanwhile, the barometer for the region is Irap. He is a maiden, and yet he has placed behind Mastery in a Grade 1 and Royal Mo in a Grade 3. Its curious then that in his last two maiden special weight appearances (prior to each of those stakes appearances) he has failed to hit-the-board. To me that suggests that the maiden special weight races in CA are not much different from the stakes events. That's not a positive observation. And then lo and behold, he ships to Sunland Park and fails there, too.

One CA horse who may creep up to the top of the heap (if he isn't burnt out along the way) is So Conflated. He's supposed to go in the Gotham in NY, so we will get another line on how the regions compare with one another this weekend.

You are right about California, not the greatest Cali crop. Although I am interested in Iliad. Its just not as pathetic in my opinion as NY or Louisiana.

PowerUpPaynter
02-28-2017, 08:55 AM
If I had to redistribute some of these horses around the big six preps for what makes the most amount of sense for the horse as if I was calling the shots it would look something like this:

Louisiana Derby
Classic Empire
Girvin
Guest Suite
No Dozing
Wild Shot
Untrapped
Saints Fan


Florida Derby
Irish War Cry
Gunnevera
Battalion Runner
Beasley
Three Rules
Sonic Mule
Always Dreaming


Wood Memorial
El Areeb
Practical Joke
Petrov
Mo Town


Bluegrass
McCraken
Favorable Outcome
Tapwrit
O Dionysus
Fact Finding

Santa Anita Derby
Mastery
Royal Mo
Iliad
So Conflated
Irap
Zakaroff
Ann Arbor Eddie


Arkansas Derby
Gormley
American Anthem
One Liner
Lookin At Lee
Uncontested

sbcaris
02-28-2017, 12:46 PM
El Areeb has raced well enough to be considered a contender at this juncture. However, his second damsire is Mr. Prospector and over the last 30 years ONLY one horse who carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position has won the roses and that was Super Saver in 2010.

I am not saying he can't win the roses but Mr. Prospector in that position is a negative.

PowerUpPaynter
02-28-2017, 03:37 PM
is it just me or does El Areeb have a weird body shape? I know thats an out there thing to say and maybe its just me but he seems to just have a weird physical make up. I cant put my finger on exactly what it is...

LottaKash
02-28-2017, 06:06 PM
El Areeb has raced well enough to be considered a contender at this juncture. However, his second damsire is Mr. Prospector and over the last 30 years ONLY one horse who carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position has won the roses and that was Super Saver in 2010.

I am not saying he can't win the roses but Mr. Prospector in that position is a negative.

Thx, that is what I was thinking too, but didn't know, as I don't follow breeding of any sort, at all...:ThmbUp:

Spalding No!
03-06-2017, 11:33 AM
Irish Freedom is the horse to watch from the west.
Entered for a Thursday allowance over 1 1/16th at Santa Anita featuring other well-meant colts like Battle Of Midway, Reach The World, Soglio, and the filly Vexatious (full sister to both Creative Cause and Destin).

Looks like a stronger race than at least the Robert Lewis.

boys at tosconova
03-06-2017, 03:33 PM
it seems like ny horses usually are second fiddle to the fla and calli horses, and louisiana isn't even in the same league

sad thing about it is they get pulverized come derby time. can't say previous years are indicative of future ones, but the ny horses have a pretty chitty track record for what seems like along time in the derby.

it's not like they have unplayable horses w/o a chance.....it's just that don't run well..lol

materiality, alpha, gemologist, etc, etc......they've burn a lot of $$$ the last several years

Spalding No!
03-06-2017, 04:52 PM
it seems like ny horses usually are second fiddle to the fla and calli horses, and louisiana isn't even in the same league

sad thing about it is they get pulverized come derby time. can't say previous years are indicative of future ones, but the ny horses have a pretty chitty track record for what seems like along time in the derby.

it's not like they have unplayable horses w/o a chance.....it's just that don't run well..lol

materiality, alpha, gemologist, etc, etc......they've burn a lot of $$$ the last several years
Materiality didn't run in NY prior to the Derby.

Gun Runner, Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man all placed in the Kentucky Derby in the last 6 years and all prepped in Louisiana. That's an average of Louisiana horse per year. Yet not in the same league...

boys at tosconova
03-06-2017, 06:22 PM
i just always thought of the FG horses are being cheaper and much weaker in general top/bottom. it's pretty much po-dunk compared to the ny, cali and fla big tracks

boys at tosconova
03-06-2017, 06:54 PM
Materiality didn't run in NY prior to the Derby.

Gun Runner, Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Nehro, Mucho Macho Man all placed in the Kentucky Derby in the last 6 years and all prepped in Louisiana. That's an average of Louisiana horse per year. Yet not in the same league...

i personally thought the best horse was the coonass colt, casey's shadow..

PowerUpPaynter
03-06-2017, 07:51 PM
couple of really good horses could of come out of NY had they not been hurt, I Want Revenge and Eskendereya... If im Practical Joke or Petrov id ship into NY for the Wood, romp, pick up easy derby pts and cash a nice check.