Betting trends

[Track Phantom]

Is it me or is the betting smarter than it ever has been?

It seems every race is won by a horse overbet relative to their chances. Is this inside money or the public is now better informed? Probably a bit of both. One would think this is helpful to the players as it "identifies" live horses but I think it is the exact opposite. This game is about finding value (or overlays, if you will). Betting a runner with a well-deserved 15-1 morning line tag on the board at 9-2 isn't right-minded.

I'm just curious if anyone else is noticing this or if I've got selective memory.

[ReplayRandall]

Is it me or is the betting smarter than it ever has been?

It seems every race is won by a horse overbet relative to their chances. Is this inside money or the public is now better informed? Probably a bit of both. One would think this is helpful to the players as it "identifies" live horses but I think it is the exact opposite. This game is about finding value (or overlays, if you will). Betting a runner with a well-deserved 15-1 morning line tag on the board at 9-2 isn't right-minded.

I'm just curious if anyone else is noticing this or if I've got selective memory.
I believe you need to update your thinking on what a "well-deserved 15-1 M/L" actually is.......BTW, today's M/L odds-makers are some of the worst I've seen in 20 years.

[aaron]

I believe you need to update your thinking on what a "well-deserved 15-1 M/L" actually is.......BTW, today's M/L odds-makers are some of the worst I've seen in 20 years.

I don't usually look at the ML till after I have handicapped the race. In NY Eric Donavan,in my opinion is a terrific ML odds-maker. The biggest difference that I see in actual odds as compared to years ago is that when you are against a big favorite and are using the 2nd or 3rd choice you are probably getting 5/2 or 3-1. Years ago,I believe the spread was bigger and you could zero in on a solid 5-1 shot. Not so much today. For win and win/place bettors it has become harder to find real value, in my opinion.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I believe you need to update your thinking on what a "well-deserved 15-1 M/L" actually is.......BTW, today's M/L odds-makers are some of the worst I've seen in 20 years.

+1

Sometimes I look and say there is no way this horse will be close to its ML

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Is it me or is the betting smarter than it ever has been?

It seems every race is won by a horse overbet relative to their chances. Is this inside money or the public is now better informed? Probably a bit of both. One would think this is helpful to the players as it "identifies" live horses but I think it is the exact opposite. This game is about finding value (or overlays, if you will). Betting a runner with a well-deserved 15-1 morning line tag on the board at 9-2 isn't right-minded.

I'm just curious if anyone else is noticing this or if I've got selective memory.

If you come up with a horse that you think is a top three probability, and that horse is 15-1 on the morning line, why would you be surprised that he gets top three odds? I'm with RR. The line makers do a poor job of what they are supposed to do - second guess the crowd.

[Track Phantom]

If you come up with a horse that you think is a top three probability, and that horse is 15-1 on the morning line, why would you be surprised that he gets top three odds? I'm with RR. The line makers do a poor job of what they are supposed to do - second guess the crowd.
Hence my term "well-deserved" -- Meaning I think the morning line is correct. I know morning lines are often way off. I'm not talking about situations where the morning line is bad. I'm talking about a legitimate morning line and the amount of horses that are overbet but run. I find it harder to mine for gold (can still find some nuggets).

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Hence my term "well-deserved" -- Meaning I think the morning line is correct. I know morning lines are often way off. I'm not talking about situations where the morning line is bad. I'm talking about a legitimate morning line and the amount of horses that are overbet but run. I find it harder to mine for gold (can still find some nuggets).

My sense is that a horse that is 15-1 ML, looks that way and gets bet is because (1) there are computer programs that zero in on something in the horse's PPs, (2) the horse is a steamer, (3) the trainer has a lot of friends he touted or (4) the owner is sentimental and just can't help overbetting his horses. We've all had horses that were 15-1, we thought they looked that way, and were wrong. Even the best of us can mis-handicap a race.

Few weeks ago I had a horse on top that paid $50. Just like the crowd can make a high ML horse low odds, they can just as easily miss a horse the other way. The crowd giveth, and the crowd taketh away.

[dlivery]

I have seen horses at 7/2 M / L going anywhere 10-1 12-1 and win like their the only horse in the race.

Only early in the race wired the field

Bet M and Forget M

The crowd giveth, and the crowd taketh away.

Sorry I stole your thunder

A well reserved horse.

[thaskalos]

IMO...the betting has gotten "smarter" for quite a while now. And I doubt that the "public at large" has much to do with it.

[rastajenk]

Except that it's gotten smaller.

[Light]

What I would like to know is who are these "smart bettors" that pound my horse in the show pool after the gates open. I am mainly a show better.

It can't be one "whale" who follows me around everywhere I bet. Today I had 3 bets, all @ MV. All hit the board, 2 won. But they paid $2.60, $2.20 and $2.20 to show. The last one was going to pay $2.80- $2.60 minimum. I'm happy with that. And I was waiting for the big avalanche in the show pool and was ready to hit the cancel button but was helpless because the tote did not change until the gates opened. Then on the backstretch I could see it would be $2.20 to $2.10 as the tote changed.

Yesterday @ GG I did have some luck with showing a 6/5 horse who ran 3rd but paid $3.00 to show. The whales or public must have been asleep. Unfortunately, that is not the norm.

To answer the OP's question, I do believe the public is somewhat "smarter" today than 20 years ago simply because the betting public's hit hate has increased on favorites from 33% to around 36% or in the low 40% at some tracks. Not sure if that's from the public's increased access to data. Or possibly from smaller fields? Or possibly from poorer quality horses in the industry compared to 20 years ago.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Except that it's gotten smaller.
Between Thask and yourself, that may be exactly the reason for this...

A. The betting public is smaller
B. The smart money is larger....

Therefore the value is lower and the frequency of lower values is climbing....

....as more non-smart money stays away due to little value, then the amount of smart money on the horse pulls down the odds...

[Poindexter]

It is a complex subject. It seems the less obvious the overbet horse is, the more dangerous he is. As op mentioned a 15-1 morning line that looks like he should be 15-1 gets hammered to 9/2, he is hard to beat. He may not win, but they typically show up somewhere in the trifecta. Obviously you can't bet him straight, but these horses should be included in your exotic play. I think the key to trifectas/supers is to key the value horse with your top choice, the overbet "livee" and whoever else you feel you need. To toss the overbet horses and just focus on value horses only is fantasyland. There will be that 1 race in 50 or 150 that you connect, and maybe that will pay for the previous 49 losers(or 249 whichever the case may be) but don't expect to do a lot of cashing leaving live horses out of your trifectas and superfectas.

Sometimes, I get the feeling that I should break the race down to key contenders and let the tote board construct the play for me. Example
1-2-4-6-8 all look fairly close in ability to me as the best horses in the field.

1) ml 3 final 8/5
2) Ml 8 final 4
4) ml 6 final 11
6 ml 8 final 19
8) ml 6 final 3

The value seeker in me looks at the 4 and 6, but it seems like so often the 1-2-8 complete the trifecta and the 4&6 are nowhere in sight. Meanwhile I am 5 deep in my pick 3 watching the 8/5 nose out the 3-1. Thrilling.

In races where the public totally agrees with me hitting tris and supers are easy(not that they pay anything). In races where my opinion is completely different than that of the tote board, I have about as much chance of bringing down the super as I do of hitting the lottery.

The money trail is very sharp these days. No question about it.

[Robert Fischer]

Is it me or is the betting smarter than it ever has been?

It seems every race is won by a horse overbet relative to their chances. Is this inside money or the public is now better informed? Probably a bit of both. One would think this is helpful to the players as it "identifies" live horses but I think it is the exact opposite. This game is about finding value (or overlays, if you will). Betting a runner with a well-deserved 15-1 morning line tag on the board at 9-2 isn't right-minded.

I'm just curious if anyone else is noticing this or if I've got selective memory.

Unless you're 'in on the fix', you can't beat the game betting underlays.

[Track Phantom]

Unless you're 'in on the fix', you can't beat the game betting underlays.
Depends on how you bet. Some of my biggest signers have come with a 1/5 shot on top in supers. If you're a win bettor, then I agree with you.

Having said that, the game is tougher to beat today then at any other time in history.

[TheOracle]

Is it me or is the betting smarter than it ever has been?

It seems every race is won by a horse overbet relative to their chances. Is this inside money or the public is now better informed? Probably a bit of both. One would think this is helpful to the players as it "identifies" live horses but I think it is the exact opposite. This game is about finding value (or overlays, if you will). Betting a runner with a well-deserved 15-1 morning line tag on the board at 9-2 isn't right-minded.

I'm just curious if anyone else is noticing this or if I've got selective memory.

Hey Track,

I keep track of the Morning Line Favorites at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga.

I've also noticed the differences between certain Morning Line long shots and their final payout prices.

In particular I've noticed that the Morning Line 8-1's, when they have won, have paid less than the $18 expectation that their Morning Line would indicate.

I took a look at Maiden races from February up to yesterday at Aqueduct.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml eightonersaqu.jpg



If you've noticed the 8-1 Morning Liners, when they have won, are paying an average of $12 which is less than their Morning Line estimate would indicate which should be at least close to $18.

Now, I don't know what the odds maker's criteria is for making a horse 8-1 in this situation but from the above sample only 2 of the 5 winners had payouts close to the $18 estimate.

I would have to go to the actual charts to compare how many times the final odds were lower than the Morning Line 8-1 estimate.

[aaron]

Hey Track,

I keep track of the Morning Line Favorites at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga.

I've also noticed the differences between certain Morning Line long shots and their final payout prices.

In particular I've noticed that the Morning Line 8-1's, when they have won, have paid less than the $18 expectation that their Morning Line would indicate.

I took a look at Maiden races from February up to yesterday at Aqueduct.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml eightonersaqu.jpg



If you've noticed the 8-1 Morning Liners, when they have won, are paying an average of $12 which is less than their Morning Line estimate would indicate which should be at least close to $18.

Now, I don't know what the odds maker's criteria is for making a horse 8-1 in this situation but from the above sample only 2 of the 5 winners had payouts close to the $18 estimate.

I would have to go to the actual charts to compare how many times the final odds were lower than the Morning Line 8-1 estimate.
Could the actual odds have been affected by scratches ?

[TheOracle]

Could the actual odds have been affected by scratches ?

Hey Aaron,

Scratches could be a part of it, but I took a look at the January 8-1 Morning Liners at Aqueduct and again the same thing among the 5 winners only 2 were beyond the $18 estimate.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml eightonersjanaqu.jpg

In particular, the 2nd race on January 29th the winner was 7/2 in the final odds it's interesting that both Morning Line 8-1's finished 1st and 2nd in that race. There were however, 2 vet scratches in that race but I think it's very interesting that one of the 8-1's was bet down to 7/2 final odds.

Same thing happened on January 6th in the 4th race and January 2nd in the 9th race. L Rice and B N Levine were involved in both instances.

Now, I am guessing L Rice's horses will get bet no matter what but for the January 29th race G C Contessa's horse getting bet down to 7/2 is not exactly what I would call the norm.

I guess quite a few of the betting public saw something the odds maker didn't see for those instances.

[Robert Fischer]

Is it me or is the betting smarter than it ever has been?

It seems every race is won by a horse overbet relative to their chances. Is this inside money or the public is now better informed? Probably a bit of both. One would think this is helpful to the players as it "identifies" live horses but I think it is the exact opposite. This game is about finding value (or overlays, if you will). Betting a runner with a well-deserved 15-1 morning line tag on the board at 9-2 isn't right-minded.

I'm just curious if anyone else is noticing this or if I've got selective memory.

important to have a good guess about what the odds will be

when the public behaves differently than expected, that means (either 'randomness', or more likely that) you lack information on the race.

In those situations, either include or pass. Don't count on bucking unknown info.

anecdotally - I did pretty well for a while at Parx, using the 2 horses that were overbet relative to their morning lines, and the 2 horses that were sitting near equal to their ml odds, in a 4 horse box

[Robert Fischer]

sometimes i call it UOB (unexpected odds behavior):


I agree 100%.
You never want to "follow" the crowd,
just want to know what's going on.


To me, the money is another tool (as if we don't already have enough to consider in our brain's 'supercomputer'...)

(my brain feels like an old PC at the moment but while we're onto something here, I'll try to contribute)



Each tool creates models or patterns

Luckily 80 or 90 different models(from our tool set) cover about 90% of the races.

also lucky, this isn't baseball, - we don't have to swing


FIRST RULE: Have an Opinion about the horse, and Have an Opinion about how that horse will be bet by the public.

NEXT: Observe how the betting plays out. The money, the Odds Behavior, will either be about what you expected:ThmbUp:, or it will be Unexpected :confused:...?



***UOB***
http://www.iconexperience.com/_img/v_collection_png/256x256/shadow/ufo.png

Unexpected Odds Behavior


What is UOB?, and why does it make your expected ML important?

When the Odds Behave differently from what you Expected, this is telling you in real time, that YOU WERE WRONG. :D

For whatever reason, you thought that the Odds would be wayyy different from what they actually are.

Safest thing to do at that point is 'fold em'.
Pass the race and move on.

OR
there are more advanced ways to 'read' that hand.


When the Odds behave unexpectedly, there are 3 primary reasons:


Randomness (public 'gravitated' to a 'default' fav, a 'high roller' went on 'tilt', dumb money following after dumb money, etc...)


Errors (We made a bad line! WE made a mistake. We were Wrong!!)


Inside Information (Trainer/Owner/Pro loves/hates this horse today, etc..)
Beginners should always pass, except for fun/practice.


Advanced horseplayers should usually pass, but also attempt to read their ERRORS and why they screwed up and misjudged the odds and how they can learn from it.

Once in a while they can adapt on the fly and re-calculate their bet.



Once in a blue moon, - they realize that word is out, and a horse is Hot or Cold on the board, and the player is sharp enough to tell the difference between a screw-up, and a horse that is UNEXPECTEDLY Hot-or-Cold-on-the-board that may be a horse to key or toss on a few tickets or whatever.



...


So one of the Main Models is simply a safety mechanism. The odds are a big part of this game, and if you weren't in the ballpark about a horse's odds, then your information isn't as strong for that horse or race as you need it to be.




You don't have to like or dislike a horse -
- to be right or wrong about the public's opinion.

Pletcher or Baffert have a FTS or something and the morning line may be 5/2 and they may be 8/5 on the board and it may not mean a thing. You know the Public loves Pletcher and Baffert. You know the reason for the Public's opinion, whether you agree with it or not, or whether you have no idea about the horse. At least you understand the public. Now if he's 1/9, you have to figure that word is out and the horse is thought of as stakes material, and reassess.

[aaron]

Robert,excellent post. When I handicap a race,I don't usually look at the ML. I can't tell you how many times,I have come up with horses who were 10-1 or higher and went off way below those odds. When I see this,I just figured I was right about the horse and the ML maker was wrong. I don't have to investigate any further. When I see one of these that I don't understand I look further. I used to be better at it, than I am now. It just seems more races puzzle me, which means less races to bet.

[PaceAdvantage]

Oracle, seriously, try ATTACHING the image to your post.

Shrinking it like this, makes it pretty much unreadable...I know, I know, I'm the one who gave you the shrink button...:pound:

But, when making a reply, scroll down and click the MANAGE ATTACHMENTS button, then upload the image...it will put a nice little thumbnail on the post and the user can click the thumbnail and get a nice, full screen view of your image with no shrinkage...try it...you'll like it...

[AskinHaskin]

Between Thask and yourself, that may be exactly the reason for this...

A. The betting public is smaller
B. The smart money is larger....

Therefore the value is lower and the frequency of lower values is climbing....

....as more non-smart money stays away due to little value, then the amount of smart money on the horse pulls down the odds...



This is thought-provoking... and even more so after you add the idiotic positions of the racing associations, which, with every marketing move they make, shrink the betting public and grow the (relative) smart money.


The correct move would be to grow the betting public and mitigate the advantages had by the smart money.


The baffling part of all this is whyyyyyyyyyyy is it not obvious to the idiots running race tracks who are making these steadily-upside-down decisions???

[MonmouthParkJoe]

If you think some of the morning lines are "out of line" (haha), you should see the ones at the meadowlands since they started using Trackmaster. ML are done by a computer and have been way off. It is used in harness quite a bit

[TheOracle]

Could the actual odds have been affected by scratches ?

Since this post the average win price for the Morning Line 8-1's, in Maiden races on the inner Dirt at Aqueduct, has been $12

Only 5 winners since February 2nd in this situation.


Let's see what these 2 Maiden 8-1's do today at Aqueduct

2nd race
#4 Judgement Free


9th race
#4 Negev

Interesting, so far, you are close to breaking even when show betting in this situation per $2 f for each show wager

[TheOracle]

Since this post the average win price for the Morning Line 8-1's, in Maiden races on the inner Dirt at Aqueduct, has been $12

Only 5 winners since February 2nd in this situation.


Let's see what these 2 Maiden 8-1's do today at Aqueduct

2nd race
#4 Judgement Free


9th race
#4 Negev

Interesting, so far, you are close to breaking even when show betting in this situation per $2 f for each show wager


These 2 finished off the board so no breaking even yesterday

1st race
#4 Right Ben


9th race
#1 We Were Kings


Let's watch these 2 today at the Big A!!!