Any thoughts regarding Tom Ainslie's/Fred Davis's system

[Bill Cullen]

Hi,

In Ainslie's book "Encyclopedia of Thoroughbred Handicapping", he mentions a system that he derived from Fred Davis's book ""Percentages and Probabilities". Ainslie calls the system a simplification of Davis's System.

I have read in a few places that the method is stilll profitable after all these years but that it is hard to find an overlay for the top pick from the odds line calculated from the system. Apparently the system mostly generates low priced horses that are usually underlays.

Any one have any thoughts or commnets or any experience with this system?

Thanks,

Bill Cullen

[kenwoodallpromos]

Have not tried the system. I just keyed on your sentence about top pick from odds line.
Occassionally I see good overlays even at very low odds because the competition or circumstance simply make the bet an overlay.
Mostly I see streaking winners who show no signs on the pp's of tiring and are running back to the same kind of race.
I also see seemingly too low odds horses who thrive always and only in specific circumstances like purse level or distance.
So you may very well follow the exact system, or else adjust for certasin situations and make good use of it.
Sometimes you can make good money following the crowd if you are sure enough often enough that the crowd is right and hold your bet when the crowd is barking up the wrong tree..

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by kenwoodallpromos
Have not tried the system. I just keyed on your sentence about top pick from odds line.
Occassionally I see good overlays even at very low odds because the competition or circumstance simply make the bet an overlay.
Mostly I see streaking winners who show no signs on the pp's of tiring and are running back to the same kind of race.
I also see seemingly too low odds horses who thrive always and only in specific circumstances like purse level or distance.
So you may very well follow the exact system, or else adjust for certasin situations and make good use of it.
Sometimes you can make good money following the crowd if you are sure enough often enough that the crowd is right and hold your bet when the crowd is barking up the wrong tree..

Thanks for your post .Some real food for thought.

Bill Cullen

[bettheoverlay]

I purchased a small black Fred Davis booklet from Ainslie's company way back in the day. You needed a calculater to multiply IV numbers. There were different IV #s based on class and/or distance. I think there were 4 main ones modified by PP. Ainslie claimed in the ads that Davis's research was his main handicapping tool.

I don't remember ever having a winning day, following the formulas and odds lines, though I am sure there must have been a couple. Even Ainslie's Private Method was better, and thats not saying much.

[Hosshead]

I have that little black Fred Davis booklet too. As I remember, it was All About I.V.'s. In fact wasn't Fred Davis one of the first to come up with I.V. values? I think it was from him, that I first heard of that calculation.