Arrogate to DWC [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Cratos

02-27-2017, 06:37 PM

Fresh off the front page headlines (www.paceadvantage.com <-- shameless plug)

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220100/arrogate-headed-to-dubai-world-cup?source=rss

Meydan’s racetrack configuration (see attachment) should be favorable to Arrogate’s running style because the run to the first turn and the distance around the Meydan’s racetrack turns are quite similar in distance to Saratoga racetrack where he accomplished a record-breaking winning performance in the 1-1/4M (the DWC distance) Travers.

And the long Meydan stretch of nearly 1/4M should allow this ‘Big Monster” to accelerate with his powerful kick in devastating fashion.

However, all this prognostication by me depends upon his adaptability to ship nearly 8,400 miles; and I realize that his last three victories all came after shipping nearly 2,500 miles for each victory.

dilanesp

02-27-2017, 06:41 PM

Meydan’s racetrack configuration (see attachment) should be favorable to Arrogate’s running style because the run to the first turn and the distance around the Meydan’s racetrack turns are quite similar in distance to Saratoga racetrack where he accomplished a record-breaking winning performance in the 1-1/4M (the DWC distance) Travers.

And the long Meydan stretch of nearly 1/4M should allow this ‘Big Monster” to accelerate with his powerful kick in devastating fashion.

However, all this prognostication by me depends upon his adaptability to ship nearly 8,400 miles; and I realize that his last three victories all came after shipping nearly 2,500 miles for each victory.

Your last point dwarfs everything else.

Personally, I think the horse I saw run down California Chrome last November at Santa Anita could probably run fine on a half-mile track surfaced with moondust or on the 2.5 mile paved Indianapolis Motor Speedway. If he survives the ship, he wins by a distance.

MonmouthParkJoe

02-27-2017, 06:42 PM

Isnt Hoppertunity pointed to this race? I am not sure of the runners overseas, but you would have to think it would make some sense for him to stay in CA and run in the big cap. Seems like horses have a hard time returning from there and wouldnt have to ship or face arrogate.

EMD4ME

02-27-2017, 06:42 PM

Your last point dwarfs everything else.

Personally, I think the horse I saw run down California Chrome last November at Santa Anita could probably run fine on a half-mile track surfaced with moondust or on the 2.5 mile paved Indianapolis Motor Speedway. If he survives the ship, he wins by a distance.

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are literally watching a once in a lifetime MONSTER.

He is THAT special.

Mr. Pick 5

02-27-2017, 10:01 PM

Arrogate is a generational horse....there hasnt been a horse in the same conversation as him since zenyatta and a male horse in the same conversation as him since god knows when.

NTamm1215

02-27-2017, 10:44 PM

SoCalCircuit

02-27-2017, 10:47 PM

Who had a hard time returning from there? The Dubai "jinx" is a figment of everyone's imagination.

Indian Blessing, XY Jet

NTamm1215

02-27-2017, 10:51 PM

Indian Blessing, XY Jet

How about...

California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Frank Conversation
Mongolian Saturday
Lady Shipman

Those horses shipped to Dubai last year and subsequently won graded stakes races in North America.

Indian Blessing won a Grade II and finished 2nd in a Grade I after going to Dubai.

The Dubai bounce is the kind of thing that people write about in blogs that haven't ever looked at the data.

SoCalCircuit

02-27-2017, 10:53 PM

VigorsTheGrey

02-27-2017, 10:57 PM

Meydan’s racetrack configuration (see attachment) should be favorable to Arrogate’s running style because the run to the first turn and the distance around the Meydan’s racetrack turns are quite similar in distance to Saratoga racetrack where he accomplished a record-breaking winning performance in the 1-1/4M (the DWC distance) Travers.

And the long Meydan stretch of nearly 1/4M should allow this ‘Big Monster” to accelerate with his powerful kick in devastating fashion.

However, all this prognostication by me depends upon his adaptability to ship nearly 8,400 miles; and I realize that his last three victories all came after shipping nearly 2,500 miles for each victory.

I wonder what a trip like this actually looks like...the airlines, the stops, the layovers, how long between flights, the quarantines, the permits and fees, etc..

Mr. Pick 5

02-27-2017, 10:58 PM

How about...

California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Frank Conversation
Mongolian Saturday
Lady Shipman

Those horses shipped to Dubai last year and subsequently won graded stakes races in North America.

Indian Blessing won a Grade II and finished 2nd in a Grade I after going to Dubai.

The Dubai bounce is the kind of thing that people write about in blogs that haven't ever looked at the data.

The examples you used couldnt be much worse....

Lady shipman....was really never the same horse after her trip to dubai and never ran as good as she did prior to her trip

frank conversation - LOL really?

chrome - this is a good example but your also talking about an exceptional animal

mongolian saturday - LOL got shipped to dubai and got sick from the shipping so he never ran

...is this a serious post....these examples are satirical and actually the complete opposite in support of your point :D:D:D

NTamm1215

02-27-2017, 11:09 PM

The examples you used couldnt be much worse....

Lady shipman....was really never the same horse after her trip to dubai and never ran as good as she did prior to her trip

frank conversation - LOL really?

chrome - this is a good example but your also talking about an exceptional animal

mongolian saturday - LOL got shipped to dubai and got sick from the shipping so he never ran

...is this a serious post....these examples are satirical and actually the complete opposite examples in support of your point :D:D:D

That was just 2016. How about...

Lea - Who was 3x Grade I placed after going and ran some of his fastest races after going

Salutos Amigos - Won his only Grade I a year AFTER going.

Royal Delta - Won multiple Grade Is each year after going

Gio Ponti - Won multiple Grade Is each year after going

Game on Dude - Won 6 Grade Is after going

Twilight Eclipse - Won his only Grade I a year after going, 3rd in BC Turf the year he went.

Mr. Pick 5

02-27-2017, 11:15 PM

That was just 2016. How about...

Lea - Who was 3x Grade I placed after going and ran some of his fastest races after going

Salutos Amigos - Won his only Grade I a year AFTER going.

Royal Delta - Won multiple Grade Is each year after going

Gio Ponti - Won multiple Grade Is each year after going

Game on Dude - Won 6 Grade Is after going

Twilight Eclipse - Won his only Grade I a year after going, 3rd in BC Turf the year he went.

dude are you really gonna argue that there is no such thing as a dubai bounce...even royal delta lost her first race back from dubai by 5 lengths to funny proposition lol....if you want to argue its overblown maybe thats one thing but to argue that it doesnt exist just isnt reasonable....the main point is that the first race back from dubai they are vulnerable...that doesnt mean they always lose but it does happen alot more than youd think....you are literally talking about races well after their first race back so im not quite sure what you're getting at

SuperPickle

02-28-2017, 12:53 AM

How about...

California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Frank Conversation
Mongolian Saturday
Lady Shipman

Those horses shipped to Dubai last year and subsequently won graded stakes races in North America.

Indian Blessing won a Grade II and finished 2nd in a Grade I after going to Dubai.

The Dubai bounce is the kind of thing that people write about in blogs that haven't ever looked at the data.

I don't think it was always a myth I just think good trainers figured out how to deal with it. It's like dosage or the pre-Barbaro layoff into Derby thing. I just think trainers figure out how to overcome certain obstacles.

The shipping has gotten such much better. Guys like Aiden O'Brien ship all over the world on a regular basis. I think they've figured it out. If you read some of the stories from Mott about bringing Cigar over the first time he got there and literally thought he'd have to scratch let alone win.

Fager Fan

02-28-2017, 07:32 AM

Arrogate is a generational horse....there hasnt been a horse in the same conversation as him since zenyatta and a male horse in the same conversation as him since god knows when.

I wasn't that big of an AP fan but it still amazes me how little people think of the long-heralded next TC winner after the drought from '78. The assumed greatness that would be bestowed that animal didn't turn out to be the case.

Going back to Zenyatta's not a long time ago, and as for the males, GZ and the Bull still have one up on this colt as far as I'm concerned. A few more races and I'll have to rank him higher.

classhandicapper

02-28-2017, 08:59 AM

dilanesp

02-28-2017, 09:48 AM

I wasn't that big of an AP fan but it still amazes me how little people think of the long-heralded next TC winner after the drought from '78. The assumed greatness that would be bestowed that animal didn't turn out to be the case.

Going back to Zenyatta's not a long time ago, and as for the males, GZ and the Bull still have one up on this colt as far as I'm concerned. A few more races and I'll have to rank him higher.

AP has demonstrated something I have said for a long time- that while the TC races are tremendously important, they aren't really how horses demonstrate greatness. AP went 2 for 3 after the TC with only one win against older horses (in a field without Beholder or Liam's Map). He then retired. It probably didn't help him that his career was surrounded by Chrome putting together an old style "great horse" record with lots of big stakes wins.

I honestly don't think AP's connections care if anyone thinks their horse is considered an all time "great". But they sure didn't try.

Si2see

02-28-2017, 09:59 AM

Indian Blessing, XY Jet

I for one thought XY Jet ran a huge race in Dubai, probably better than any of his races here.

SoCalCircuit

02-28-2017, 11:20 AM

I for one thought XY Jet ran a huge race in Dubai, probably better than any of his races here.

Yeah the Dubai bounce is POST Dubai travels. XY Jet has been a total loser after returning here.

outofthebox

02-28-2017, 11:29 AM

Yeah the Dubai bounce is POST Dubai travels. XY Jet has been a total loser after returning here.xy Jet chipped a knee in Dubai and had surgery. I won't count that as a Dubai return flop.

HorsemenHeist

02-28-2017, 11:31 AM

dude are you really gonna argue that there is no such thing as a dubai bounce...even royal delta lost her first race back from dubai by 5 lengths to funny proposition lol....if you want to argue its overblown maybe thats one thing but to argue that it doesnt exist just isnt reasonable....the main point is that the first race back from dubai they are vulnerable...that doesnt mean they always lose but it does happen alot more than youd think....you are literally talking about races well after their first race back so im not quite sure what you're getting at

Frosted sure bounced in his 1st start from Dubai......

The Dubai bounce may have been valid 10 years ago, but from what I understand, the shipping has become much easier than it was then, and that probably explains why horses are recovering better after the trip.

Si2see

02-28-2017, 01:48 PM

Yeah the Dubai bounce is POST Dubai travels. XY Jet has been a total loser after returning here.

Right ( although injured )

I think what everyone has already posted should be the most logical answer... It depends on the individual horse and the connections.

On a side note there was a really good interview on xbtv with Wesley Ward last week about getting his horses ready for Ascot.

Fager Fan

02-28-2017, 06:08 PM

The concern with this horse is how many he has in the tank. With his sire, I don't expect him to make it through the year, particularly since he didn't get a break between last year and this year. So enjoy while you can, more so than others, his retirement may come sooner than later. I don't know if this makes going for the money in Dubai make sense or make little sense.

Valuist

02-28-2017, 06:28 PM

When I first saw the post, I thought he was going to the old Detroit Race Course. Then thought maybe he was going to D Wayne Lucas.

tucker6

02-28-2017, 06:39 PM

Arrogate is a generational horse....there hasnt been a horse in the same conversation as him since zenyatta and a male horse in the same conversation as him since god knows when.

Zenyatta, for as good as she was, doesn't deserve to be in the same sentence as Arrogate. He is well beyond her. You'd have to go back to the 70's for comparisons to Arrogate IMO. His easy training fractions do remind me quite a bit of Big Red.

dilanesp

02-28-2017, 07:16 PM

Zenyatta, for as good as she was, doesn't deserve to be in the same sentence as Arrogate. He is well beyond her. You'd have to go back to the 70's for comparisons to Arrogate IMO. His easy training fractions do remind me quite a bit of Big Red.

I think comments like this underrate the importance of having a career.

Here's a hypothetical. Suppose a horse debuted in a 1 1/8 mile maiden race at Saratoga, ran 1:44 and change, and Beyered a 142. Then the horse retired to stud. Would he be a great horse?

I would say no, and I wouldn't flinch at it. Indeed, I wouldn't flinch at saying that even if 5 of the maidens behind him in that race came back to win graded stakes. One race is not a career.

Arrogate has run essentially 3 races that matter. He's the fastest horse I've seen since at least Ghostzapper, and he might be faster than Ghostzapper. The only horse I ever saw in person who I am absolutely sure was faster than Arrogate was Spectacular Bid.

However, you can't compare him to a horse like Zenyatta who ran 20 times and won 19 races, who won 2 Breeders' Cup races, including a Classic, and was second beaten a head in a third Classic, who beat several generations of fillies and a couple of generations of colts, and who stayed sound for four campaigns.

And I am only talking about Zenyatta because that was the horse that was mentioned. You can't compare Arrogate to Cigar either. You can't compare him, believe it or not, to California Chrome in terms of a career, even though he beat Chrome twice. You can't compare him to Sunday Silence or Easy Goer or Alysheba or John Henry. And you certainly can't compare him to the Bid, who is not only the fastest horse I ever saw but had an excellent career.

He's not there yet. He has to keep it up and have a career. He's well on his way, though. And EMD is right that in terms of his speed, he is a once-in-a-generation horse.

tucker6

02-28-2017, 07:46 PM

I think comments like this underrate the importance of having a career.

Here's a hypothetical. Suppose a horse debuted in a 1 1/8 mile maiden race at Saratoga, ran 1:44 and change, and Beyered a 142. Then the horse retired to stud. Would he be a great horse?

I would say no, and I wouldn't flinch at it. Indeed, I wouldn't flinch at saying that even if 5 of the maidens behind him in that race came back to win graded stakes. One race is not a career.

Arrogate has run essentially 3 races that matter. He's the fastest horse I've seen since at least Ghostzapper, and he might be faster than Ghostzapper. The only horse I ever saw in person who I am absolutely sure was faster than Arrogate was Spectacular Bid.

However, you can't compare him to a horse like Zenyatta who ran 20 times and won 19 races, who won 2 Breeders' Cup races, including a Classic, and was second beaten a head in a third Classic, who beat several generations of fillies and a couple of generations of colts, and who stayed sound for four campaigns.

And I am only talking about Zenyatta because that was the horse that was mentioned. You can't compare Arrogate to Cigar either. You can't compare him, believe it or not, to California Chrome in terms of a career, even though he beat Chrome twice. You can't compare him to Sunday Silence or Easy Goer or Alysheba or John Henry. And you certainly can't compare him to the Bid, who is not only the fastest horse I ever saw but had an excellent career.

He's not there yet. He has to keep it up and have a career. He's well on his way, though. And EMD is right that in terms of his speed, he is a once-in-a-generation horse.

I can agree with you that it is too early to make Arrogate an all-timer. However, my point was that he is heading in that direction if he stays in training and continues on this pace. Then, I think he passes the Holy Bulls and the Cigars, and starts approaching the Bids and Big Reds. But he is not there yet as you correctly state. But I will not put Zenyatta on his level even now. He is a better horse than Zenyatta ever was. I know her fandom will pounce on that, but that's just my opinion in watching him race. She could never do what he is capable of doing IMO.

johnhannibalsmith

02-28-2017, 07:48 PM

...Then thought maybe he was going to D Wayne Lucas.

I'm going to let CJ or PA deal with the part that they dislike but unlike them I'm gonna say that I had the same thought when I saw it. My jaw dropped. :lol:

Cratos

02-28-2017, 11:47 PM

I can agree with you that it is too early to make Arrogate an all-timer. However, my point was that he is heading in that direction if he stays in training and continues on this pace. Then, I think he passes the Holy Bulls and the Cigars, and starts approaching the Bids and Big Reds. But he is not there yet as you correctly state. But I will not put Zenyatta on his level even now. He is a better horse than Zenyatta ever was. I know her fandom will pounce on that, but that's just my opinion in watching him race. She could never do what he is capable of doing IMO.

I have had the opportunity to see live some of the all-time greats from my all-time favorite, Dr. Fager to American Pharoah last year and I will put Arrogate on the trail to become a top 5 great in my estimation when he is retired from racing.

He is approaching the characterization which the late Charles Hatton bestowed on Big Red; and I will paraphrase: “the only comparison he has with his contemporaries is to himself.”

For those of you who doubt that, look at California Chrome who was a very good horse and in the PWC, Chrome accelerated at a 58.6ft/sec in the second quarter of the race and still fell short by .04 seconds behind Arrogate at the end of the quarter.

Arrogate has early acceleration from the gate like a sprinter and can find another “gear” deep in the race; he is scary good.

Is he the second coming of Secretariat? I don’t know, but to me and this is not a disparaging comment, he is better now with the same number of races than Zenyatta, Spectacular Bid, Seattle Slew, Ghostzapper and Affirmed; and the numbers say so; and I am not speaking of the innocuous speed figure metric.

Yes, I agree that his breeding say he might have a curtailed racing career due to injury.

NTamm1215

03-03-2017, 11:59 PM

dude are you really gonna argue that there is no such thing as a dubai bounce...even royal delta lost her first race back from dubai by 5 lengths to funny proposition lol....if you want to argue its overblown maybe thats one thing but to argue that it doesnt exist just isnt reasonable....the main point is that the first race back from dubai they are vulnerable...that doesnt mean they always lose but it does happen alot more than youd think....you are literally talking about races well after their first race back so im not quite sure what you're getting at

Not quite sure what I'm getting at? Perhaps that a VERY long list of horses have come back to North America after going to Dubai and continued to perform at a high level, many of them better than they were before shipping over there. If you want to argue that they have struggled in their first start back, then that's a slightly different issue. But for every Royal Delta, there are plenty of examples to the contrary. Generalizations are often erroneous.

03-04-2017, 01:27 AM

I'm going to let CJ or PA deal with the part that they dislike but unlike them I'm gonna say that I had the same thought when I saw it. My jaw dropped. :lol:

I feel like Frank Constanza trying to hold his tongue when George Steinbrenner is at his house..."what the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for!"...

It is L-U-K-A-S

Man o' War

03-24-2017, 02:05 AM

Totally agree with this except the Seattle Slew and Affirmed part..……California Chrome ran just as well as an Affirmed could run on BC day…one of the best efforts I’ve seen from him. But imagining an Affirmed being put in California Chrome’s shoes and being in the same position in the race which would be very likely, Arrogate would have to pull out another gear apart from the tremendous one he pulled on Chrome. Affirmed is a lot more hard-nosed than Chrome and won’t give it up all that easy as we all know if he has the lead. And Seattle Slew more so…Arrogate has that gear I’d bet, but still needs to show it. And if he keeps breaking track records like he’s doing, I’ll be convinced of his stature and he goes right between Secretariat and Man o’ War as far as I’m concerned….….
What? 7 races and 2 track records already? This is Secretariat territory….superhorses do track records….hear that Cigar fans?

ultracapper

03-24-2017, 02:15 AM

Meydan’s racetrack configuration (see attachment) should be favorable to Arrogate’s running style because the run to the first turn and the distance around the Meydan’s racetrack turns are quite similar in distance to Saratoga racetrack where he accomplished a record-breaking winning performance in the 1-1/4M (the DWC distance) Travers.

And the long Meydan stretch of nearly 1/4M should allow this ‘Big Monster” to accelerate with his powerful kick in devastating fashion.

However, all this prognostication by me depends upon his adaptability to ship nearly 8,400 miles; and I realize that his last three victories all came after shipping nearly 2,500 miles for each victory.

Are they still running on synthetic over there? I believe they once were, weren't they? If that's the case, could that be an issue?

Edit: Never mind. I see on your schematic it's dirt.

PaceAdvantage

03-24-2017, 08:43 AM

What? 7 races and 2 track records already? This is Secretariat territory….superhorses do track records….hear that Cigar fans?It completely sucks that in today's day and age, we don't get to see this horse race more. It's obvious this horse breathes rarefied air at the moment. Juddmonte's goal this year is to win another Breeders' Cup Classic with Arrogate, and then he'll be off to stud. I guess I should be ecstatic he's actually racing as a four-year-old.

I've never been a big fan of the Dubai World Cup for whatever reason, but tomorrow feels different. I can't wait to see this horse run again.

I found an interesting quote from Baffert before the Pegasus. A curious quote, actually, since Baffert has never been shy about running in Dubai:

“We'll give him a little break after the Pegasus as usually we would not run him in the winter,” Baffert said then. “I wouldn't take him to Dubai. We bought him for American racing, and with his pedigree we want him to stay in America.”

He changed his tune after Arrogate won the Pegasus...I would guess Juddmonte influenced his thinking, but interesting nonetheless that he didn't see this race as a fit for Arrogate not too long ago. Perhaps something to keep in mind as Arrogate goes to the gate the 1/3 M/L favorite tomorrow.

JustRalph

03-24-2017, 08:50 AM

Where can we watch the race? Anybody clue me in?

Fager Fan

03-24-2017, 08:52 AM

TVG always shows it.

MonmouthParkJoe

03-24-2017, 11:03 AM

NBCSN has it from 10:30am to 1:30pm, eastern time zone i believe.

Redboard

03-24-2017, 12:19 PM

It might be a good idea to ask multiple trainers if there is a Dubai bounce. I can't remember the specific horses, but I recall a few years back that didn't do so well when they returned and trainers subsequently saying it was tough on the horse and they needed extra recovery time. That's where the idea came from to begin with. It could easily be that the trip is very draining, but with the experience of going several times trainers have figured out how to make it easier on the horse and how much time they need to recover before running again in the US. So what was once a bit of an issue may no longer be a problem.

I remember a couple of trainers saying that they learned to give the horse a several-week rest BEFORE shipping back to the U.S. I don't know how many follow this but it makes sense to be. If I got run over by a tractor trailer, I would want an immediate hospital rest rather than an immediate 20-hour (or whatever) plane ride.

Redboard

03-24-2017, 12:24 PM

NBCSN has it from 10:30am to 1:30pm, eastern time zone i believe.

Thanks for the info. I'm renting a vacation house at this time that doesn't have TVG. I just checked and it does have NBCSN. Without your post I would have never checked.

:ThmbUp:

Redboard

03-24-2017, 12:26 PM

It compl........

I found an interesting quote from Baffert before the Pegasus. A curious quote, actually, since Baffert has never been shy about running in Dubai:

“We'll give him a little break after the Pegasus as usually we would not run him in the winter,” Baffert said then. “I wouldn't take him to Dubai. We bought him for American racing, and with his pedigree we want him to stay in America.”

He changed his tune after Arrogate won the Pegasus...I would guess Juddmonte influenced his thinking, but interesting nonetheless that he didn't see this race as a fit for Arrogate not too long ago. Perhaps something to keep in mind as Arrogate goes to the gate the 1/3 M/L favorite tomorrow.

Well, he is owned by the Saudi Arabian royal family.

PaceAdvantage

03-24-2017, 12:41 PM

Well, he is owned by the Saudi Arabian royal family.I know, which made the quote before the Pegasus even more interesting, don't you think? Why would Baffert come out and even hint that the DWC might be off the table for this horse, let alone come right out and say he wouldn't run there?

All I'm saying is if you're looking to beat this horse, now is the time to do so.

Shipping all that way...racing at night...going somewhere his trainer obviously didn't want to go at one point not too long ago.

Some things to ponder here...

dilanesp

03-24-2017, 01:24 PM

I know, which made the quote before the Pegasus even more interesting, don't you think? Why would Baffert come out and even hint that the DWC might be off the table for this horse, let alone come right out and say he wouldn't run there?

All I'm saying is if you're looking to beat this horse, now is the time to do so.

Shipping all that way...racing at night...going somewhere his trainer obviously didn't want to go at one point not too long ago.

Some things to ponder here...

Well, can you beat him?

Fager Fan

03-24-2017, 01:42 PM

Well, can you beat him?

They're all beatable. He has to string together quite a few more before I think he's unbeatable by every horse currently racing. Gun Runner has the goods to do it.

Mr. Pick 5

03-24-2017, 01:51 PM

They're all beatable. He has to string together quite a few more before I think he's unbeatable by every horse currently racing. Gun Runner has the goods to do it.

I originally was thinking that maybe an upset was possible...but upon further consideration I realized absolutely not...who am I kidding....this horse is an absolute machine and is going to roll this field tomorrow.....generational horse

EasyGoer89

03-24-2017, 01:56 PM

I originally was thinking that maybe an upset was possible...but upon further consideration I realized absolutely not...who am I kidding....this horse is an absolute machine and is going to roll this field tomorrow.....generational horse

i agree, anyone can get beat, the problem with trying to beat A is that you not only need lightning in a bottle, you still have to come up with the correct combo!

It's not like if he loses, people who bet against him automatically win.

rgustafson

03-24-2017, 01:59 PM

They're all beatable. He has to string together quite a few more before I think he's unbeatable by every horse currently racing. Gun Runner has the goods to do it.

I know he is a 4yr. old now and probably bigger and stronger, but I still can't get past how easily Tamarkuz blew by Gun Runner in the stretch of the Breeders Cup Mile. Also the fact that he was beaten in the Pennsylvania Derby by Connect.

reckless

03-24-2017, 03:37 PM

Not sure if there will a DWC selections thread but here I go from here:

Big exacta Arrogate over Neolithic.

Smaller exacta Arrogate over Mubtaahij.

That's 9-11, and 9-14 for all you numbers guys.

Why these two under Arrogate (soon to be the greatest horse ever made if not there already)?:

If one looks at all the horses Arrogate faced so far that's running in the DWC, Neolithic has finished the closest to him, beaten 8 1-4 lengths in the Pegasus. Plus, Neolithic ran two great races late in 2016 that's on par or better than those 2-3 others who might get more attention. Horses such as Gun Runner (beaten 15 lengths). Keen Ice (11), Hoppertunity (11 1-2) could very well be much shorter prices in the exacta pools than Neolithic.

Why Mubtaahij? He once ran within 4 lengths of California Chrome and as we all know, Cali Chrome was beaten just a half-length to Arrogate in the BC Classic. He'll get a few bucks from me because of this. Also, Mike de Kock is now his trainer and and that's a big improvement over the very over rated Kiaran McLaughlin.

Good luck everyone and enjoy the race.

PaceAdvantage

03-24-2017, 03:39 PM

Well, can you beat him?I'm not looking to beat him, although I haven't even looked at the race yet. I'm saying if you were, now's the time, obviously...

dilanesp

03-24-2017, 04:18 PM

Just from a fan's standpoint, wouldn't it be fun if Keen Ice beat him? That would solidify his reputation and the great Giant Killer.

Lemon Drop Husker

03-25-2017, 02:53 AM

Been an "anti" anything Hoppertunity wagerer for a while, but in this one, he makes a bit of sense to me.

Also look to Mubtaahij to have a reasonable shot. OF course both of those are with their given odds of 8/1 or higher.

Reality is, Arrogate is King, and someone will need a massive effort and/or Arrogate to not take to the surface.

MargieRose

03-25-2017, 11:39 AM

Arrogate is running for the first time without Lasix...may be something to consider.

Tom

03-25-2017, 12:48 PM

Zenyattagate wins it!

ArlJim78

03-25-2017, 12:49 PM

Unfreakinbelievable.
Out of this word performance.

Andy Asaro

03-25-2017, 12:51 PM

Going with Best EVER IMO. No horse could have done what he just did.

tanner12oz

03-25-2017, 12:51 PM

I feel bad for the other horses..they don't even have a chance...they look like nickel claimers running against him

Grits

03-25-2017, 12:51 PM

I swear, unto my soul, after that break, I'm SPEECHLESS.

Congrats ARROGATE!!!

Gunrunner second!!!!

Incredible for American racing.....

ArlJim78

03-25-2017, 12:53 PM

I'd like to see the head-on of the start because it looked like he got mugged on the left and the right, before being steadied.

Tom

03-25-2017, 12:53 PM

Zenyattagate wins it!

Mike even said so! :pound::pound::headbanger:

Vinnie

03-25-2017, 01:03 PM

What a Performance. Absolutely Amazing Horse!! Congratulations to the horse and his connections. What a Gift Arrogate is to the racing World!!:)

HalvOnHorseracing

03-25-2017, 01:06 PM

Great, great win. The very definition of class. Brilliant patience by Mike Smith, but he had to be a super horse to recover from that start.

MargieRose

03-25-2017, 02:04 PM

Mike even said so! :pound::pound::headbanger:
Yep...

“I missed the break completely,” Smith said. “I immediately thought of Zenyatta (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/zenyatta/2004?source=BHonline). I said to myself, ‘I’ll just ride him like Zenyatta.’”

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220628/arrogate-last-to-first-in-dubai-world-cup

ultracapper

03-25-2017, 03:03 PM

Neolithic- The richest also-ran in horse racing history.

No crime in the way this horse runs. Hopefully the connections will find a few spots for him over the summer. He deserves a picture or two after his last 2 efforts.

Man o' War

03-25-2017, 06:53 PM

Rumbles from Heaven…
MOW and CY were looking out the window of Heaven down on Dubai today. “What in God’s name did he do now?” MOW asked. ”Sec, come over here and check this out, the Lord did it again” Cy said. Secretariat watched Arrogate for the remainder of his race. That ain’t sh*t!!....he declared.
Kinda tense up there now….someone’s in a fighting mood….

lamboguy

03-26-2017, 05:42 AM

GUNRUNNER did nothing wrong in his race except for having to have faced ARROGATE.

early in the day the track was not conducive to to speed on the rail. by the time they got to the last race it looked like it was not that prevalent as earlier in the day.

the way that GUNRUNNER trained there was absolutely nothing he could have done differently.he came into the race with a 49 work, Assmussen likes to go in 51 ahead of a long race like this.

so it comes down to this for me, they both over achieved and the race was great. i am sure that both horses will run the whole year now until the breeders cups and may face off again.