Delta Pick 5 Race Fixing

[SoCalCircuit]

Let me preface this that I am an avid Delta Downs horizontal player. I play that track 3-4 night per week, usually large pick-5 and pick-4 tickets. Between yesterday and today, I am now 100% convinced the pick-5 has been infiltrated and there's race fixing going on in some fashion. Here's an example from tonight.

Take a look at the Pick-4 and Pick-5 will-pays going into the final race tonight (see thumbnails). With the 10 (who won the last leg), the pick-4 was paying $10,532; however, the pick-5 with the 10 paid $2,668 - and this is with a first leg 3-1 bet down from 8-1. (And the pick-5 pool was around 13k after takeout, so it's not a produce of pool size). This 10 was also 15-1 on the morning line, ended at 8-1.

The final kicker is look at the results from yesterday. The same EXACT thing happened. This is a complete joke, I am never playing that track again and the LA Racing Commission should launch an investigation because this is a total disgrace.

No chance I ever play that scumbag track again. :rip:

[Mr. Pick 5]

Let me preface this that I am an avid Delta Downs horizontal player. I play that track 3-4 night per week, usually large pick-5 and pick-4 tickets. Between yesterday and today, I am now 100% convinced the pick-5 has been infiltrated and there's race fixing going on in some fashion. Here's an example from tonight.

Take a look at the Pick-4 and Pick-5 will-pays going into the final race tonight (see thumbnails). With the 10 (who won the last leg), the pick-4 was paying $10,532; however, the pick-5 with the 10 paid $2,668 - and this is with a first leg 3-1 bet down from 8-1. (And the pick-5 pool was around 13k after takeout, so it's not a produce of pool size). This 10 was also 15-1 on the morning line, ended at 8-1.

The final kicker is look at the results from yesterday. The same EXACT thing happened. This is a complete joke, I am never playing that track again and the LA Racing Commission should launch an investigation because this is a total disgrace.

No chance I ever play that scumbag track again. :rip:

The fix is 100% in....ive seen the results of both sequences and witnessed this first hand...for example last night the p5 going into the final race was paying 17k with the 9 who was the post time favorite....yet randomly only paying 2900 with the 1 who was a ml 15 to 1 and also went off as a bomb....not to mention the sequence was by no means easy to have at all.....then tonight literally the same exact thing happens....they got a bit more greedy tonight and played the 10 to win some in the last....im not conspiracy theorist but i can state to a near certainty that something extremely dishonest has gone on the past two nights at delta and i dont think i can ever play that track again

[EMD4ME]

Looking at those payouts and will pays, I would be disgusted as well.

Good ol Lou eeee zzzz anah ! :bang::bang::puke:

[Poindexter]

A lot of peculiarities in these races. 1st off in probably payoffs posted, the pick 5 should have been paying over 4 times the pick 4 since a 3.2 to 1 shot won the first leg of the pick 5. Strangely enough the payoffs were very close for the 2 wagers. Only the 5 & 8 in the last leg was significantly higher and 2 horses the 9 & 10(the winner) were significantly lower. What makes things more peculiar is that the pick 3 ending in the last leg was ridiculously high paying 3 1/2 times a straight parlay, the pick 4 paid 5 times a straight parlay and the pick 5 paid about 1/7th of a straight parlay. Have a feeling one person(group) took down the entire pool or close to it with multiple tickets on the winning combo and would have done so no matter who won.


My conclusion is that this looks worse than it is because the pick 5 was hammered and the late pick 3 and pick 4 was completely underplayed. My hunch is someone(s) was all over the winner of leg 1 of the pick 5 in the pick 5 and likely the pick 3 starting in that race which came back very short. My guess is they covered very wide and scored.

[NY Racing Fan]

I have no knowledge as to whether anything was fixed or not (doubt it) but small pools do lead to peculiar payouts. Only $17.8K wagered in the pick 5 pool.

[sammy the sage]

A lot of peculiarities in these races. 1st off in probably payoffs posted, the pick 5 should have been paying over 4 times the pick 4 since a 3.2 to 1 shot won the first leg of the pick 5. Strangely enough the payoffs were very close for the 2 wagers. Only the 5 & 8 in the last leg was significantly higher and 2 horses the 9 & 10(the winner) were significantly lower. What makes things more peculiar is that the pick 3 ending in the last leg was ridiculously high paying 3 1/2 times a straight parlay, the pick 4 paid 5 times a straight parlay and the pick 5 paid about 1/7th of a straight parlay. Have a feeling one person(group) took down the entire pool or close to it with multiple tickets on the winning combo and would have done so no matter who won.


My conclusion is that this looks worse than it is because the pick 5 was hammered and the late pick 3 and pick 4 was completely underplayed. My hunch is someone(s) was all over the winner of leg 1 of the pick 5 in the pick 5 and likely the pick 3 starting in that race which came back very short. My guess is they covered very wide and scored.

Ditto...my thoughts too...who-ever...hammered the winner in the 1st leg...when it won...no reason to make up or make other bets...

Besides...if singling...p/5 becomes a p/4....and you make the bet 4 times...which IS NOT unusual for SOME players....well at a piss-ant track w/no handle....that's WHAT happens....

After all...you CAN'T make a $200 win bet AT THAT track...with NO pool volume...it woulda paid $3.00 for the winner on the 1st leg...

or the races were fixed...which happens also....:pound::rant::puke::rolleyes:;)

[lamboguy]

i happened to have seen this myself and just shrugged it off like i do when i see this stuff go on all the place with blind pools (for the regular public).

this exists everywhere these days, i have been complaining about this for years now but get nowhere with it, just people calling me nuts (which i happen to know i am). but not about subject matter like this. i am an expert in this subject since the mid 90's, unfortunately the suspicion here has plenty of merit.

the fact is that there is no easy fix for what is going on, and to fix it is very expensive. i would recommend everyone stop playing any type of blind pool. i stopped long ago. but i am not enough to make an impact. if those pools dropped in half you might get some action on this matter, this also could lead to a healthier game if it does get addressed.

[Mr. Pick 5]

Here's the main issue you guys aren't picking up on....the SAME exact thing happened on Friday night....look at the results and pay offs for Friday night.....the 1 in the last race was a bomb but absolutely hammered in the pick 5.....something is up....the 9 who was the post time favorite was paying the pool but the 1 who is a bomb is mysteriously 2900....so not only is it underpaying but it's also paying the same as the pick 4 for a very difficult sequence....this stinks to high heaven and I can assure you this had to have been rigged....there is no other legitimate explaination....two nights in a row....

[Hambletonian]

Louisiana...you are betting on races in Louisiana.

Not for nothing, but don't most here feel that cheating of various types is endemic there? Not exactly the law and order state in my book.

[green80]

We had horses in 4 of the 5 races you question Friday night and if any kind of fix was in, we were not told about it. Ran 2nd in 2 of em. For a fix like you say to happen you would have to have at least a few of the races fixed and no word was out Friday night. I will tell you when something is going on at Delta, everybody on the backside knows about it. Just exactly how do you think this "fix" was done?

[EMD4ME]

Maybe FIX was the wrong word the OP used?

Maybe he/she/they meant it was a "Horn" like betting pattern?

Maybe there's someone with access to the tote who is crushing these tickets/altering these tickets after leg 3 or right as leg 4 is run AND they know that the last race will not be run on the up and up?

Maybe just the last race was run with intentions of 1 horse should be the chosen one?

All I know is, when the fav has 1 ticket on it to close the sequence and there are 7 tickets live to a bomb that wins, it smells like shit.

This is shit. No need to prove it. Especially when it happens on back to back nights.

We were all born in the day or at night. Just not yesterday or last night.

We all know it smells like shit. For once in my life, I'd like for all the industry insiders here to just suck it up and say it looks and smells like shit.

Stop defending the shit and telling these guys/gals, it's Filet Mignon.

[green80]

I think Sammy in post #6 gives the best idea of what happened in the pools. Don't be to quick to blame something you cannot explain on "race fixing".

[SoCalCircuit]

Maybe fixing wasn't the right word necessarily, but you're blind to not think that something is OFF. I've seen enough large horizontal bets to know when something doesn't add up. There's plenty of other context clues as well, take a look at the last race last night and watch the 10 get an absolute dream trip. And I have NEVER seen these types of results and ANY comparable tracks.

Don't be so hesitant to call it what it is. If it looks like a rat, smells like a rat....
Doesn't matter though I'm done with that track. Fool me once shame on me.

[green80]

Maybe FIX was the wrong word the OP used?

Maybe he/she/they meant it was a "Horn" like betting pattern?

Maybe there's someone with access to the tote who is crushing these tickets/altering these tickets after leg 3 or right as leg 4 is run AND they know that the last race will not be run on the up and up?

Maybe just the last race was run with intentions of 1 horse should be the chosen one?

All I know is, when the fav has 1 ticket on it to close the sequence and there are 7 tickets live to a bomb that wins, it smells like shit.

This is shit. No need to prove it. Especially when it happens on back to back nights.

We were all born in the day or at night. Just not yesterday or last night.

We all know it smells like shit. For once in my life, I'd like for all the industry insiders here to just suck it up and say it looks and smells like shit.

Stop defending the shit and telling these guys/gals, it's Filet Mignon.


We had the horse that ran 2nd in this last race Fri night. Our rider gave his best and was beaten by a better horse that night. No one said anything about letting the 1 horse win.

If something is going on it has to be like you say "with access to the tote".

I agree this looks and smells like shit, but I don't see anybody here driving up in a new Cadillac this morning. I am just defending the guys on the ground level. If something is going on it is someone with access at the tote level. If I was investigating this, from what I know, the tote is where I would look.

[SoCalCircuit]

We had horses in 4 of the 5 races you question Friday night and if any kind of fix was in, we were not told about it. Ran 2nd in 2 of em. For a fix like you say to happen you would have to have at least a few of the races fixed and no word was out Friday night. I will tell you when something is going on at Delta, everybody on the backside knows about it. Just exactly how do you think this "fix" was done?

Congrats I had 4/5 as well. But can you please explain to me how the 1 at 25-1 in the last leg was paying 2900 whereas with the 9, who was the favorite, it was paying the pool at 17k? And also please explain how the pick 5 paid 2900 and the pick 4 paid 2600, where the first leg pick 5 horse was a 4-1 (only after the break obviously this is Delta, so the horse went into the gate at 8-1). I'm thoroughly baffled.

[green80]

.Congrats I had 4/5 as well. But can you please explain to me how the 1 at 25-1 in the last leg was paying 2900 whereas with the 9, who was the favorite, it was paying the pool at 17k? And also please explain how the pick 5 paid 2900 and the pick 4 paid 2600, where the first leg pick 5 horse was a 4-1 (only after the break obviously this is Delta, so the horse went into the gate at 8-1). I'm thoroughly baffled.

As I look more into this, you have someone with access to the tote, betting after the race('s) are run. That is the only logical explanation from what I know. My point was that I don't think the races are being fixed on a ground level, you have somebody past posting the bets.

[airford1]

Let's see Delta Downs, Hum didn't they have Billy and Joe Patin arrested for race fixing last year and more recently a Vet.,Kyle Hebert was accused of class 1 drug violations ( Frog Juice)with a herb to prevent detection. That's just what they published they found. I thought I was starting to become a good handicapper playing Delta Downs only to find that I was just putting cheaters in my picks. How hard do we think Louisiana is looking for the Cheaters? or any where else.

[SoCalCircuit]

.

As I look more into this, you have someone with access to the tote, betting after the race('s) are run. That is the only logical explanation from what I know. My point was that I don't think the races are being fixed on a ground level, you have somebody past posting the bets.


That's fine and while I do believe it's possible there has been fixing at the ground level, maybe it's at the tote level. My point is that something is 100% OFF and at this point there's enough evidence for an investigation into this IMO. The numbers don't add up, and unless you're someone who pays VERY close attention to Delta's pick 5 (which isn't a huge segment of betters) it'd be extremely easy for this to have gone unnoticed.

[green80]

That's fine and while I do believe it's possible there has been fixing at the ground level, maybe it's at the tote level. My point is that something is 100% OFF and at this point there's enough evidence for an investigation into this IMO. The numbers don't add up, and unless you're someone who pays VERY close attention to Delta's pick 5 (which isn't a huge segment of betters) it'd be extremely easy for this to have gone unnoticed.


And that is why these "crooks" chose the pick5 pool. Not to deny that there has been race fixing by jockeys at Delta, I just don't think that is the case in this instance.

[Fox]

There was a total of 51030 combinations in the pick 5 I think. There was $17793 in the pool. $13344.75 after 25% takeout. The payout was $2668.95 for 50 cents so there was $2.50 on the winning combination. It is pretty easy to see that this may very well have been just happenstance in a blind pool.

[green80]

all this over $2.50 worth of tickets?

[SoCalCircuit]

You guys are missing the bigger picture. The 2002 breeders cup p6 was only an $1152 ticket, so I guess that should've been ignored as well. But whatever keep living in your bubbles that all is well and good if that helps you justify dumping your money into that Louisiana swamp.

[arw629]

I'm not saying this instance was rigged or not but I play many tracks day in and day out and delta downs and evangeline downs are two tracks that come to mind when I think of race fixing ...I'm not the type of guy who says this very often at all ...actually next to never do I question a jockey decision but these two tracks a few times over the years I have seen some things that smell really bad

[Fox]

The Thursday pick 5 paid out very generously, especially when compared to the pick 4. Maybe they should also launch an investigation into why that sequence was so underbet. The numbers don't lie.

[SoCalCircuit]

The Thursday pick 5 paid out very generously, especially when compared to the pick 4. Maybe they should also launch an investigation into why that sequence was so underbet. The numbers don't lie.

Nope it actually paid exactly what it should have. A first leg 4-1 which entered the gate much higher than that, in conjunction with a second leg 5-2 on the morning line in a semi wide open race, which was only 1.8-1 if you had seen the public's odds of you were playing the pick 4. But thank you for making my point how things should typically look without intervention.

[Fox]

Nope it actually paid exactly what it should have. A first leg 4-1 which entered the gate much higher than that, in conjunction with a second leg 5-2 on the morning line in a semi wide open race, which was only 1.8-1 if you had seen the public's odds of you were playing the pick 4. But thank you for making my point how things should typically look without intervention.

Not really. Pick 4 paid 3.2 times the parlay. Pick 5 paid 6.3 times the parlay. Clearly something is not right. Maybe Green80 had something to do with it by not participating in the fix that day and thwarting their efforts.

[SuperPickle]

Let me preface this that I am an avid Delta Downs horizontal player. I play that track 3-4 night per week, usually large pick-5 and pick-4 tickets. Between yesterday and today, I am now 100% convinced the pick-5 has been infiltrated and there's race fixing going on in some fashion. Here's an example from tonight.

Take a look at the Pick-4 and Pick-5 will-pays going into the final race tonight (see thumbnails). With the 10 (who won the last leg), the pick-4 was paying $10,532; however, the pick-5 with the 10 paid $2,668 - and this is with a first leg 3-1 bet down from 8-1. (And the pick-5 pool was around 13k after takeout, so it's not a produce of pool size). This 10 was also 15-1 on the morning line, ended at 8-1.

The final kicker is look at the results from yesterday. The same EXACT thing happened. This is a complete joke, I am never playing that track again and the LA Racing Commission should launch an investigation because this is a total disgrace.

No chance I ever play that scumbag track again. :rip:

All I can say is I thought weed wasn't legal in SoCal for 11 more months.

A handful of points on this...

1. Using the term "fixing" infers criminal activity and places PA in a liability spot so you might stop doing that.

2. As others r have pointed out what you describing isn't "fixing." Fixing is collusion or conspiracy among a group of people to alter an outcome. That's not this. I looked at the ten races. Nothing weird jockey wise.

3. Your sample size is two nights. If it was two weeks at least there would be smoke. Basically your alledging shenanigans in a small pool with two nights as examples.

4. If you're alledging Classic race fixing your argument goes off the rails on the pick 5 part. So I'm committing a federal felony to cash out just the pick 5 pool. I'm going to leave all that wps, ex, tri and pick 3 and double money on there just hit one pool?

Does fixing one pool sound far less likely than 5 bettors have the same combination usually 1-2 would have?

5. The allegation of software manipulation is just as weak. Understand if you got in you have access to everything. I imagine a person or persons with that level of intelligence would also be smart enough to know to hit larger pools to go unnoticed. Again the idea that someone is hacking into a Tote system to just hit a pick 5 pool is probably a lot less likely than someone getting lucky in a small pool?

6. Is everything Kosher? Possibly not. I'd be willing to believe there's someone out there with really good Delta info. I'd even be willing to buy into someone putting over a horse on consecutive nights. But that stuff is pretty common maybe even more common in Louisiana. So this could be shoplifting or someone stealing car radios but you're framing it as JFK level conspiracy.


The bottom line is weird payoffs are a daily occurrence especially at tracks with smaller pools. All you really have here is that.

I do think it would be helpful if someone (I'm looking at YOU EMD) to start a "Weird Payout thread." That way if there are tracks who routinely have stuff like this happen over a period of time we know.

[green80]

Let me preface this that I am an avid Delta Downs horizontal player. I play that track 3-4 night per week, usually large pick-5 and pick-4 tickets. Between yesterday and today, I am now 100% convinced the pick-5 has been infiltrated and there's race fixing going on in some fashion. Here's an example from tonight.

Take a look at the Pick-4 and Pick-5 will-pays going into the final race tonight (see thumbnails). With the 10 (who won the last leg), the pick-4 was paying $10,532; however, the pick-5 with the 10 paid $2,668 - and this is with a first leg 3-1 bet down from 8-1. (And the pick-5 pool was around 13k after takeout, so it's not a produce of pool size). This 10 was also 15-1 on the morning line, ended at 8-1.

The final kicker is look at the results from yesterday. The same EXACT thing happened. This is a complete joke, I am never playing that track again and the LA Racing Commission should launch an investigation because this is a total disgrace.

No chance I ever play that scumbag track again. :rip:

contact them:
La Racing Commission  




Address (https://www.google.com/search?q=la+racing+commission+address&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAOPgE-LWT9c3LMk1NKoqS9KSzU620s_JT04syczPgzOsElNSilKLiwGx yDW9LgAAAA&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi_jOLVsq7SAhVkVWMKHcd4APoQ6BMIgAEwEg): 2717 Delta Downs Dr, Vinton, LA 70668


Phone (https://www.google.com/search?q=la+racing+commission+phone&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAOPgE-LWT9c3LMk1NKoqS9LSz0620k_Oz8lJTS7JzM_Tz87LL89JTUlP jS9IzEvNKdbPSCyOL8jIz0u1ApMABSUoJUAAAAA&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi_jOLVsq7SAhVkVWMKHcd4APoQ6BMIgwEwEw): (337) 589-6198

[cj]

The commission that lied about what happened after the "heat stroke" race? :lol::lol::lol:

That said, these are very small pools for the number of possible winning combinations. These types of anomalies aren't all that rare. Anything is possible and maybe there is funny business, maybe not. Using the probables alone as some sort of lynch pin is going too far though.

[thaskalos]

Why are we still surprised by the goings-on in Louisiana Racing? IMO...those who continue to wager there deserve everything that they get. As Einstein reportedly said: "Let the buyer beware".

[SoCalCircuit]

Race fixing may not have been the right word, but I believe something is OFF.

[green80]

Race fixing may not have been the right word, but I believe something is OFF.


at a glance things may look off but we are talking about the effect of about $2 in an almost $18k pool. (if fox's post #20 is correct, and I don't doubt that it is.)

[AltonKelsey]

Very unlikely the pools are reflecting any kind of fix.

If you want to make a case for it, you'd have to keep track of ALL probables every day , and prove that winning combinations are notoriously low.

Cherry picking random days and pointing a finger is an amateur show.

The variance in these small pools is very wide, and anomalies almost always skew to LOW payoffs.

[green80]

Very unlikely the pools are reflecting any kind of fix.

If you want to make a case for it, you'd have to keep track of ALL probables every day , and prove that winning combinations are notoriously low.

Cherry picking random days and pointing a finger is an amateur show.

The variance in these small pools is very wide, and anomalies almost always skew to LOW payoffs.


Then someone always says " the fix is in"

[Mr. Pick 5]

I've easily played over a thousand pick 5s over the last few years and I've got news for everyone....the last race the past two nights at delta has been RIGGED....no if ands or buts about it....more than likely there was one or two other races in the sequence that were also rigged....I can assure you to near certainly however that the last race was rigged...I don't care if it's a small pool or not....you do not have pick 5 sequence results like that with payouts that low to bombs in the last race....I've seen wayyyy too many pick 5 sequences and results to not know that this does not stink to high heavens....all the people who think it is not rigged either are extremely nieve, or don't know how pick 5s work, or both....I follow delta almost every single night this isn't just some random occurance....on top of that the pick 4 pays the same or in Saturday's case way more....a wise man once told me if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck....and this delta pick 5 is quacking LOUD

[green80]

I've easily played over a thousand pick 5s over the last few years and I've got news for everyone....the last race the past two nights at delta has been RIGGED....no if ands or buts about it....more than likely there was one or two other races in the sequence that were also rigged....I can assure you to near certainly however that the last race was rigged...I don't care if it's a small pool or not....you do not have pick 5 sequence results like that with payouts that low to bombs in the last race....I've seen wayyyy too many pick 5 sequences and results to not know that this does not stink to high heavens....all the people who think it is not rigged either are extremely nieve, or don't know how pick 5s work, or both....I follow delta almost every single night this isn't just some random occurance....on top of that the pick 4 pays the same or in Saturday's case way more....a wise man once told me if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck....and this delta pick 5 is quacking LOUD

When you say rigged, exactly what do you mean? Do you think the trainers and jockeys were involved? Do you think someone got into the tote system?

[Mr. Pick 5]

When you say rigged, exactly what do you mean? Do you think the trainers and jockeys were involved? Do you think someone got into the tote system?

Could be either...I would highly lean toward jockeys and/or trainers legitimately rigging the race however....the payouts just do not add up....at all....I've never seen anything like this in years of horses...yes it's a very bold claim but I am highly convinced the last race has been compromised Friday and Saturday....ofcourse the jockeys and trainers would never admit to this they would lose their jobs and possibly even end up in jail....but the evidence and results are there....not by any means saying it happens every night....but definitely Friday and Saturday.....if you do that a few times a years your talking a couple hundred k....not exactly chump change

[Maximillion]

Could be either...I would highly lean toward jockeys and/or trainers legitimately rigging the race however....the payouts just do not add up....at all....I've never seen anything like this in years of horses...yes it's a very bold claim but I am highly convinced the last race has been compromised Friday and Saturday....ofcourse the jockeys and trainers would never admit to this they would lose their jobs and possibly even end up in jail....but the evidence and results are there....not by any means saying it happens every night....but definitely Friday and Saturday.....if you do that a few times a years your talking a couple hundred k....not exactly chump change

You follow Delta every night...did you watch the 2 races of the winner of the last race yesterday?

[Mr. Pick 5]

You follow Delta every night...did you watch the 2 races of the winner of the last race yesterday?

Only ran twice won his maiden and looked decent and got fifth in his other race or something like that ok cool....I get your point you will argue that he figured....sure ok....so how do you figure the pick 4 pays 4 times what the pick 5 pays?

[Fox]

On Saturday,

A 50 cent win parlay on the horses in the pick 4 sequence would have paid $410. The 50 cent pick 4 paid $10532.

A 50 cent win parlay on the horses in the pick 5 sequence would have paid $1723. The 50 cent pick 5 paid $2668. That pick 5 premium is not out of whack. The outlier is the pick 4 that paid 25 times the parlay.

[Quesmark]

There would have to be multiple parties involved to effect a Pick 5 sequence with a pool of 17.8 k before takeout,where's the incentive to split that among them.
What's the average purse at Delta Downs?It's easier to put one over in a single race than a multi-race sequence.
Boat races happen regularly at 2nd/3rd tier thoroughbred,and most harness tracks.The "boys" need one for themselves every once in a while...

[Racetrack Playa]

Different pools for different fools, I am not seeing a fix , but I felt that the
7th race
:5: Kristinas Day Walk winning was a bit of a surprise, horse that often runs pretty well. Catalyst for chaos in the pools?
I can understand many Cappers leaving him off a ticket.
OR maybe Single him and spread in the 10th. :headbanger:



s

[Mr. Pick 5]

On Saturday,

A 50 cent win parlay on the horses in the pick 4 sequence would have paid $410. The 50 cent pick 4 paid $10532.

A 50 cent win parlay on the horses in the pick 5 sequence would have paid $1723. The 50 cent pick 5 paid $2668. That pick 5 premium is not out of whack. The outlier is the pick 4 that paid 25 times the parlay.

so what is your explanation for fridays?

[Mr. Pick 5]

Different pools for different fools, I am not seeing a fix , but I felt that the
7th race
:5: Kristinas Day Walk winning was a bit of a surprise, horse that often runs pretty well. Catalyst for chaos in the pools?
I can understand many Cappers leaving him off a ticket.
OR maybe Single him and spread in the 10th. :headbanger:



s

any possible explanation for fridays results and payouts?

[Mr. Pick 5]

The fact of the matter is that both friday and saturday returned what i would refer to as highly suspicious results in the payouts...people will argue coincidence or try to justify it but the odds of this happening back to back nights with these results and payouts is just too much for me to buy....something is off and im not buying it.....SOMETHING has to be going on its just not passing the common sense test

[Racetrack Playa]

any possible explanation for fridays results and payouts?
p3 paid huuge,

[Quesmark]

Those in the know only hit 1 multi-race pool on both Friday and Saturday?
Why not scoop everything while they're at it.
A 17.8k P5 pool with a 25% rake has only 13.35K left to split.
In comparison what are average WPS/Exotic pools on a typical race at Delta Downs?
It doesn't take much to distort a small pool,even 2 nights in a row...

[Fox]

any possible explanation for fridays results and payouts?

By bad, I actually think those numbers I posted above are wrong. I am going to repost some and it actually does look a bit suspicious.

[Mr. Pick 5]

Those in the know only hit 1 multi-race pool on both Friday and Saturday?
Why not scoop everything while they're at it.
A 17.8k P5 pool with a 25% rake has only 13.35K left to split.
In comparison what are average WPS/Exotic pools on a typical race at Delta Downs?
It doesn't take much to distort a small pool,even 2 nights in a row...

Win pools arent necessarily big enough without it getting WAY too obvious...by doing it with a random pool like a pick 5 that isnt huge they avoid detection and suspicion

[Mr. Pick 5]

By bad, I actually think those numbers I posted above are wrong. I am going to repost some and it actually does look a bit suspicious.

Something is definitely up....trust me i am no conspiracy theorist....i would not be so adamant if i wasnt almost certain that something was wrong....theres just no way around the results not making sense....the really only way to explain it is some sort of cheating or fixing

[Quesmark]

Win pools arent necessarily big enough without it getting WAY too obvious...by doing it with a random pool like a pick 5 that isnt huge they avoid detection and suspicion
And how much could "they" gain form this conspiracy?
In an individual race the "smart" money can be spread into how many pools,WPS, Exacta, Tri ,Super, DD, P3,4,5...

[Racetrack Playa]

any possible explanation for fridays results and payouts?

p4 -3/4/11/12-7-6-1 (4 correct) 3 scratches in the 7th, and the Fav won?

[Fox]

I posted a bad calculation earlier for the pick 4 and pick 5 premium over win parlay for Saturday. I used bad inputs. Sorry. Anyway, the last month where both the pick 4 and pick 5 paid out to 4 of 4 and 5 of 5, the payout/parlay is posted below. It definitely looks odd. It's still far from proof of anything though.


date p4/parlay p5/parlay
28-Jan 2.91, 4.13
01-Feb 2.53, 1.79
03-Jan 4.31, 3.45
04-Feb 3.17, 4.38
08-Feb 1.37, 1.08
09-Feb 1.23, 1.15
10-Feb 1.12, 2.08
11-Feb 3.05, 1.94
16-Feb 1.77, 1.91
17-Feb 6.26, 11.73
18-Feb 1.36, 1.54
22-Feb 2.04, 1.59
23-Feb 3.20, 6.34
24-Feb 1.19, 0.25
25-Feb 5.10, 0.31

[SoCalCircuit]

Something is definitely up....trust me i am no conspiracy theorist....i would not be so adamant if i wasnt almost certain that something was wrong....theres just no way around the results not making sense....the really only way to explain it is some sort of cheating or fixing

Pretty much this. While all of this is obviously just my OPINION, I can't think of ANY other instances in which the Pick 5's paid so little relative to or less than the overlapping Pick 4, especially given the non-common legs were far from locks (and obviously not including scenarios where the Pick 5 was capped by the pool size). And given that I play several pick 5's per week and generally review the results of the others, I would have noticed.

[Mr. Pick 5]

I posted a bad calculation earlier for the pick 4 and pick 5 premium over win parlay for Saturday. I used bad inputs. Sorry. Anyway, the last month where both the pick 4 and pick 5 paid out to 4 of 4 and 5 of 5, the payout/parlay is posted below. It definitely looks odd. It's still far from proof of anything though.


date p4/parlay p5/parlay
28-Jan 2.91, 4.13
01-Feb 2.53, 1.79
03-Jan 4.31, 3.45
04-Feb 3.17, 4.38
08-Feb 1.37, 1.08
09-Feb 1.23, 1.15
10-Feb 1.12, 2.08
11-Feb 3.05, 1.94
16-Feb 1.77, 1.91
17-Feb 6.26, 11.73
18-Feb 1.36, 1.54
22-Feb 2.04, 1.59
23-Feb 3.20, 6.34
24-Feb 1.19, 0.25
25-Feb 5.10, 0.31

Great work fox...this is the exact kind of data that illustrates something is WAY OFF.....even to the blind eye the results for friday and saturday are massive statistical outliers

[SoCalCircuit]

Great work fox...this is the exact kind of data that illustrates something is WAY OFF.....even to the blind eye the results for friday and saturday are massive statistical outliers

Not that it necessarily affects the data, but also remember that (I believe) on both Friday and Saturday, the first-leg winners went into the gate at higher odds than they finished, so if you parlayed with those odds (the odds the betting public actually thought they were getting), the inverse ratio of Pick-5 payouts to parlay would be even more extreme.

[Quesmark]

Playing detective which connections had multiple winners in the last 10 races on 2/24 & 2/25:
Trainer
Jose Camejo 3 wins

Jockey
Alex Batista 2wins [both in the last 10th race]
R. Morales 2 wins[both for trainer Camejo]
Steve Borque 2 wins[1 a night ]

[Fox]

date p4/parlay p5/parlay
01/03/17 4.31 3.45
01/04/17 1.04 0.81
01/05/17 1.29 1.62
01/11/17 2.47 1.67
01/12/17 3.46 2.44
01/13/17 1.32 0.58
01/14/17 1.32 2.10
01/19/17 5.12 3.18
01/20/17 2.54 3.17
01/25/17 2.04 1.14
01/26/17 2.55 2.14
01/27/17 4.97 5.15
01/28/17 2.91 4.13
02/01/17 2.53 1.79
02/04/17 3.17 4.38
02/08/17 1.37 1.08
02/09/17 1.23 1.15
02/10/17 1.12 2.08
02/11/17 3.05 1.94
02/16/17 1.77 1.91
02/17/17 6.26 11.73
02/18/17 1.36 1.54
02/22/17 2.04 1.59
02/23/17 3.20 6.34
02/24/17 1.19 0.25
02/25/17 5.10 0.31

I added the rest of January. The only other one that sticks out on the low end was from 1/13. That sequence had a 4 horse field won by a 1/2 shot and another 4 horse field won by an even money favorite.

[Quesmark]

date p4/parlay p5/parlay
01/03/17 4.31 3.45
01/04/17 1.04 0.81
01/05/17 1.29 1.62
01/11/17 2.47 1.67
01/12/17 3.46 2.44
01/13/17 1.32 0.58
01/14/17 1.32 2.10
01/19/17 5.12 3.18
01/20/17 2.54 3.17
01/25/17 2.04 1.14
01/26/17 2.55 2.14
01/27/17 4.97 5.15
01/28/17 2.91 4.13
02/01/17 2.53 1.79
02/04/17 3.17 4.38
02/08/17 1.37 1.08
02/09/17 1.23 1.15
02/10/17 1.12 2.08
02/11/17 3.05 1.94
02/16/17 1.77 1.91
02/17/17 6.26 11.73
02/18/17 1.36 1.54
02/22/17 2.04 1.59
02/23/17 3.20 6.34
02/24/17 1.19 0.25
02/25/17 5.10 0.31

I added the rest of January. The only other one that sticks out on the low end was from 1/13. That sequence had a 4 horse field won by a 1/2 shot and another 4 horse field won by an even money favorite.
What do these stacked #'s even mean,the columns don't seem to match the headings,what's going on...

[green80]

Playing detective which connections had multiple winners in the last 10 races on 2/24 & 2/25:
Trainer
Jose Camejo 3 wins

Jockey
Alex Batista 2wins [both in the last 10th race]
R. Morales 2 wins[both for trainer Camejo]
Steve Borque 2 wins[1 a night ]

If you think some fixing was going on, perhaps who didn't win is more important to look at. The guys you listed were just doing their job. I never heard of a rider fined for putting forth his best effort.

[sammy the sage]

If you think some fixing was going on, perhaps who didn't win is more important to look at. The guys you listed were just doing their job. I never heard of a rider fined for putting forth his best effort.

This...if THAT what's going on...you cannot guarantee a horse to win....but you CAN guarantee one WILL NOT....and bet accordingly...

[AltonKelsey]

What do these stacked #'s even mean,the columns don't seem to match the headings,what's going on...

Looks like the actual payoff, divided by parlay.

[Fox]

What do these stacked #'s even mean,the columns don't seem to match the headings,what's going on...

There is 3 headings and 3 columns. First column is date. Second column is the actual pick 4 payout divided by a win parlay of the 4 horses who won. The last column is pick 5 payout divided by a win parlay of the 5 horses who won.

I whipped something up earlier to query my database and generate the same data for all Delta race dates last year. I'll post it later when I get a chance. I still want to analyze the outliers some, but at first glance, the payoffs from Friday and Saturday have no equal as far as their oddity. For it to happen 2 nights in a row makes it tough not to raise an eyebrow.

[Poindexter]

When looking at fox's numbers I found it odd that the pick 4's typically pay as well if not better the pick 5's do. Then I decided to look at the takeout and according to Hana there pick 4 takeout is 12% and their pick 5 takeout is 25%. I think even with a carryover I would prefer the pick 4. Barring a carryover, you would have to hate money to play the pick 5 there. But assuming these are the correct current takeout percentages, fox's numbers make a lot more sense. Play the pick 4 and let the suckers play the pick 5.

[Mr. Pick 5]

When looking at fox's numbers I found it odd that the pick 4's typically pay as well if not better the pick 5's do. Then I decided to look at the takeout and according to Hana there pick 4 takeout is 12% and their pick 5 takeout is 25%. I think even with a carryover I would prefer the pick 4. Barring a carryover, you would have to hate money to play the pick 5 there. But assuming these are the correct current takeout percentages, fox's numbers make a lot more sense. Play the pick 4 and let the suckers play the pick 5.

This comment is just factually incorrect on soo many different levels that I'm not going to go any further wasting my time or breath for someone who clearly doesn't get it....in addition it's off topic of the original comment so not only is it incorrect, but it's also extremely obnoxious....you sir must have :bang: a few too many times....

[Fox]

This comment is just factually incorrect on soo many different levels that I'm not going to go any further wasting my time or breath for someone who clearly doesn't get it....in addition it's off topic of the original comment so not only is it incorrect, but it's also extremely obnoxious....you sir must have :bang: a few too many times....

Yikes. Relax man. I think he was just saying that it appears that the 12% takeout pick 4 is a better value than a 25% takeout pick 5. It would be tough to dispute that just based on common sense. Not only does the lower takeout make it a better deal, the larger pool size makes it better too.

[EMD4ME]

Off topic but I will add, I'd rather play a 25% pick 5 VS. a 12% pick 4.

Despite the higher takeout it's a better play because of many reasons, top one being a well capitalized and more gutsy player has a night and day advantage vs. a scared small bankroll player.

[Mr. Pick 5]

Off topic but I will add, I'd rather play a 25% pick 5 VS. a 12% pick 4.

Despite the higher takeout it's a better play because of many reasons, top one being a well capitalized and more gutsy player has a night and day advantage vs. a scared small bankroll player.

A very accurate statement from arguably the best player on this forum (I don't even think it's arguable)...aside from that, at small tracks in particular, you have the unique opportunity to take the pool with the right ticket and just a few things going your way, making it all the more advantageous to play the pick 5....of course that is when it isn't rigged like it was on Friday and Saturday :lol:

[Poindexter]

Mr. Pick 5. Just for clarification I was not saying that a pick 4 with a 12% takeout will pay better than the pick 5 at a 25% takeout. What I was trying to convey is that when you look at fox's numbers(value relative to the parlay) the pick 4 seems to pay as well as the pick 5 on a fairly consistent basis. That I found odd, because I expect the pick 5 to offer more value relative to the parlay. Thus my 'factually incorrect point" is that due to the reduced takeout in the pick 4 you are not getting the extra value in the pick 5 and it is thus a suckers bet. Emd may consider a 25% takeout pick 5 superior to a 12% takeout pick 4, I completely disagree. I think fox's numbers, albieit a small sample, sort of confirm my point. We all have opinions. I will stick with mine. Yes this is off topic a bit, but is pertinent information to clarify
fox's numbers.

[Mr. Pick 5]

Mr. Pick 5. Just for clarification I was not saying that a pick 4 with a 12% takeout will pay better than the pick 5 at a 25% takeout. What I was trying to convey is that when you look at fox's numbers(value relative to the parlay) the pick 4 seems to pay as well as the pick 5 on a fairly consistent basis. That I found odd, because I expect the pick 5 to offer more value relative to the parlay. Thus my 'factually incorrect point" is that due to the reduced takeout in the pick 4 you are not getting the extra value in the pick 5 and it is thus a suckers bet. Emd may consider a 25% takeout pick 5 superior to a 12% takeout pick 4, I completely disagree. I think fox's numbers, albieit a small sample, sort of confirm my point. We all have opinions. I will stick with mine. Yes this is off topic a bit, but is pertinent information to clarify
fox's numbers.

I understand what you are saying....that being said it is very situation dependent....obviously if the favorite wins the first leg you are probably not going to get great value on the pick 5....same thing goes if a favorite wins the first leg for a pick 4....I think we agree to disagree here I still consider a pick 5 play to be infinitely better than a pick 4 play atleast 95% of the time....obviously there are exceptions....also different people play different ways so pick 4s could fit their style better....in my humble opinion if you are really trying to make a big score however you MUST go with the pick 5 over the pick 4 every time without a doubt

[AltonKelsey]

Off topic but I will add, I'd rather play a 25% pick 5 VS. a 12% pick 4.

Despite the higher takeout it's a better play because of many reasons, top one being a well capitalized and more gutsy player has a night and day advantage vs. a scared small bankroll player.


On the face of it this seems ridiculous. Seems ridiculous from the back too.

How about some math types chime in here.

[EMD4ME]

On the face of it this seems ridiculous. Seems ridiculous from the back too.

How about some math types chime in here.

I don't want to prove it to you. I just want to keep taking other people's money.


How about the conversation ends there my friend?

[SoCalCircuit]

On the face of it this seems ridiculous. Seems ridiculous from the back too.

How about some math types chime in here.

You really gotta stop antagonizing EMD up and down the forum....

[EMD4ME]

You really gotta stop antagonizing EMD up and down the forum....

Appreciate the thought SoCalCircuit.

Something tells me Alton is a retread of some sort or an alternate personality. Starting to get that feel.

Or maybe he's just Hector Diaz's jockey agent, as I originally thought :lol:

[AskinHaskin]

Let me preface this that I am an avid Delta Downs horizontal player. I play that track 3-4 night per week, usually large pick-5 and pick-4 tickets. Between yesterday and today, I am now 100% convinced the pick-5 has been infiltrated and there's race fixing going on in some fashion. Here's an example from tonight.

Take a look at the Pick-4 and Pick-5 will-pays going into the final race tonight (see thumbnails). With the 10 (who won the last leg), the pick-4 was paying $10,532; however, the pick-5 with the 10 paid $2,668 - and this is with a first leg 3-1 bet down from 8-1. (And the pick-5 pool was around 13k after takeout, so it's not a produce of pool size). This 10 was also 15-1 on the morning line, ended at 8-1.

The final kicker is look at the results from yesterday. The same EXACT thing happened. This is a complete joke, I am never playing that track again and the LA Racing Commission should launch an investigation because this is a total disgrace.

No chance I ever play that scumbag track again. :rip:


So, the 'live' horse wins the first leg of a multi-race bet, leaving those who emphasized it considerably quite "live" on their horizontal bets. Those guys don't need to re-ante on the pick-4 as they're already in great positions.

Any new/bolstered position they take in the pick-4 will heavy-up on the more popular runners (which lost, so you wouldn't see that evidence).

Meanwhile, bombs come in through most of the pick-4 rendering the rank and file especially fruitless in their efforts. That rank and file was especially fruitless because of pick-5 players having had less reason to shore-up wagers using 'outsiders' all the way through, given they had already put themselves in great position via their pick-5's.


The last race comes around, and those who emphasized that winner in the first leg of the pick-5 are still there and 'evident' on the board, while few outside of numbers players are 'alive' in the pick-4.


SO it all makes reasonable sense in light of the small pools and the way things evolved to that point.


My exacta ticket utilized just 1,2,4, and 10 in that 10th race at Delta, based mainly on Daily Double action, so it wasn't as if this was Carmouche just joining-in at the Quarter Pole in the dense fog.

While admittedly the pick-4 happened to pay MUCH more than the pick-5 over the same races, there is exactly nothing about the chain of events which doesn't stand-up to objective scrutiny.




On Thursday night, very live runners take the 6th and 7th, and the bomb who wired'em in the 8th was especially interesting to the person I was sitting with, and he positioned himself for a possible big score with that one winning...

(* I didn't have any particular draw to it, but I could respect a "speed play" at a price, and would recognize that the legitimate 'sharpies' would include it on a strategic back-up play)

Half of the winning pick-4 was comprised of complete bombs, while 60% of the pick-5 was comprised of 2 outright favorites, and an opener who took a ton of action, AND on which I had win money.


Delta has long been a track where plenty of core wise guys love to play the exotics, and their play usually steers the rank and file to the live horses. That much has been consistent about Delta for years and years.

Clearly nothing so much as hints of "race fixing" in evidence based on two weak cases of payouts which don't match somebody's expectations, particularly considering the small pools involved.

[AltonKelsey]

You really gotta stop antagonizing EMD up and down the forum....


Forget about this last post, you really consider my defending 7lb bug Diaz against his, imo, unfair critique, some sort of antagonism?

I don't.


So back to the current hot discussion. 25% take out on 5 is a better bet than than 12% on 4.

Even though the bettors as a group are getting back only 75c on the dollar vs 88c ?


So we've established that the public is absolutely worse off, but not established that there is some magic that allows certain parties to overcome (and actually benefit) from this huge negative difference in takeout.

The question stands.

[Fox]

Forget about this last post, you really consider my defending 7lb bug Diaz against his, imo, unfair critique, some sort of antagonism?

I don't.


So back to the current hot discussion. 25% take out on 5 is a better bet than than 12% on 4.

Even though the bettors as a group are getting back only 75c on the dollar vs 88c ?


So we've established that the public is absolutely worse off, but not established that there is some magic that allows certain parties to overcome (and actually benefit) from this huge negative difference in takeout.

The question stands.

Or for arguments sake, what's better, a 0% takeout pick 4 or a 25% takeout pick 5? There must be some point where the benefit of the reduction of takeout overcomes the counter argument of scared money and scooping the pool.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't want to prove it to you. I just want to keep taking other people's money.


How about the conversation ends there my friend?Why is it that when anyone questions you about anything, you take it as a personal attack on your manhood?

[EMD4ME]

Why is it that when anyone questions you about anything, you take it as a personal attack on your manhood?

I didn't take it that way. :ThmbUp:

I just dont want to give out details as to why that's the case.

Let him keep believing that.

I know it sounds crazy but its true. I know because I've totally changed my game a few years back to leverage this scenario.

[EMD4ME]

Or for arguments sake, what's better, a 0% takeout pick 4 or a 25% takeout pick 5? There must be some point where the benefit of the reduction of takeout overcomes the counter argument of scared money and scooping the pool.

Correct. There is a breaking point.

[Parkview_Pirate]

The horizontal wagers at smaller tracks are a bit dicey. I love Delta, and make money there, but I don't bet the horizontals - cause about 20% of results of their races are in the category of "it don't make sense".

And I get especially nervous when it's foggy.

Love Delta, love Evd, hate the Fairgrounds. Hardly nothing but chalk or "not in a million years" winners there....

[Mr. Pick 5]

Diego Saenz with some suspect rides on heavy favorites....I'm beginning to see a common denominator :eek:

[Fox]

Diego Saenz with some suspect rides on heavy favorites....I'm beginning to see a common denominator :eek:

Very generous pick 5 payout though.

[Mr. Pick 5]

Very generous pick 5 payout though.

Definitely a generous p5 payout....he is the one common denomintor in all of this however I hate to say

[iamt]

Definitely a generous p5 payout....he is the one common denomintor in all of this however I hate to say

So Saenz is the common denominator in Pick 5s paying both too much and too little.

Your losts as SRU and Easygoer never added much of substance, it seems this Mr Pick 5 will offer just as much.

[Mr. Pick 5]

So Saenz is the common denominator in Pick 5s paying both too much and too little.

Your losts as SRU and Easygoer never added much of substance, it seems this Mr Pick 5 will offer just as much.

Something of this magnitude is clearly far beyond your brain comprehension levels so I'll leave it at that....

[iamt]

I can read and follow Game of Thrones without having the imagination to write such a thing. I don't think the fantasy that you're pushing could be anywhere near the length or number of characters.

[no breathalyzer]

Diego Saenz with some suspect rides on heavy favorites....I'm beginning to see a common denominator :eek:

:ThmbUp:Trust me i noticed ... i didn't want to be the first to say it here.. this way it validates my inner thoughts

[Mr. Pick 5]

:ThmbUp:Trust me i noticed ... i didn't want to be the first to say it here.. this way it validates my inner thoughts

Boy am I glad I'm not betting delta after these incidents....look at the replay from race 7 tonight at delta....the ride he gives the :5: is a joke....tell me he doesn't get there if he was actually trying to?....am I missing something....I didn't see one whip

[Mulerider]

Boy am I glad I'm not betting delta after these incidents....look at the replay from race 7 tonight at delta....the ride he gives the :5: is a joke....tell me he doesn't get there if he was actually trying to?....am I missing something....I didn't see one whip

I believe he was trying. If you watch the head-on replay, the jock is using a left hand whip repeatedly in the stretch; I think the 5 was actually hit more times than any other horse in the field. It's hard to see that from the pan shot. If the jock can be faulted, it was for the terrible break in which his horse immediately went hard left out of the gate, colliding with the 4 (which in turn bounced off the 3). Considering the 5 lost by a half-length, I think that break probably cost him the race.

Mule

[Mr. Pick 5]

I believe he was trying. If you watch the head-on replay, the jock is using a left hand whip repeatedly in the stretch; I think the 5 was actually hit more times than any other horse in the field. It's hard to see that from the pan shot. If the jock can be faulted, it was for the terrible break in which his horse immediately went hard left out of the gate, colliding with the 4 (which in turn bounced off the 3). Considering the 5 lost by a half-length, I think that break probably cost him the race.

Mule

The break is absolutely a large part of it....that's his vintage move when he loses on these heavy favorites...breaks terribly then dips straight to the rail behind a wall of horses...maybe this race wasn't the best example but the issue is it's been happening a lot more than it should

[Racetrack Playa]

...maybe this race wasn't the best example but
Can you think of any "best" examples:coffee:

[Mr. Pick 5]

Can you think of any "best" examples:coffee:

Pretty much any of the final races of the night in the past two weeks where he was on a favorite....there have been others as well....go back and watch the races if you're interested it doesn't take long and it's usually always when he's on one of the favorites

[Racetrack Playa]

oh okay, nevermind

[Prof.Factor]

I'm late and just read this thread. I would like to add my 2 cents.

Speed figs of both horses spiked so high, help from other jocks to hold would not have been needed.
Batista rode both.

Did Batista leave Louisiana now? Coincidence?

He rode 5 at Hawthorne last weekend, including a 40-1 winner on March 3rd.

4 of those mounts were for Bentler.
Bentler already had a positive win ROI over the past 2 years before the 40-1 shot rolled in.