High speed ratings

[Stick]

I have seen some posts about speed ratings and how people throw out a rating that is considerably higher than any of the others. That sounds like a good move in theory. However, I have come across a few lately that seem to put this to the test. By that I mean I look at the horses lines and the speed rating in question does not appear to me to be outside the box of what the horse can normally do. But is much higher than the others. For the following example I am using TM speed ratings. Today in the 10th at Dover I notice Enhance Your Mind wired the field in 151:1 in her last start at Dover. This line does not appear to me to be anything out of the ordinary for this horse. But as I glance at the speed ratings for this horse, the 95 for this race is 6 ahead of all the other ratings listed. I have seen this a few times lately at the Meadowlands also. I was hoping any of you that use speed ratings in your handicapping could explain if you have come across these types of situations and how you proceed.

[LottaKash]

I was hoping any of you that use speed ratings in your handicapping could explain if you have come across these types of situations and how you proceed.

I have stick...

And, I would have to say that, that number seems about right...

I am mostly a Pace-Pattern handicapper, but I never ignore the TM-SR's, as to do so would do more harm than good overall....

I like the TM-SR's, and for the most part I trust them....Never 100%, no numbers are ever "that good", still, they are good enough and consistent enough, barring clerical errors of course, that they serve the handicapper quite well, when looking to anchor and baseline their speed assessments, when making comparisons...Saves a whole lot of time and possibly bigger personal errors in an attempt to trump them, in that regard...

As for throwing out a clear outlier SR number, it is sometimes a bit diffy at times...When I see that situation, I generally will look for an accompanying angle of some sort to kind of validate that big rise in the SR...,

ie:, a change of class, up or down, change of track, change of Driver and/or trainer, and quite often those examples will be the the reason for the new top SR....

Otherwise, a throwout may often be in order, "a bounce" you could say, if not in those aformentiond cases....I see it all the time, when a horse runs a new speed-rating top, the horse will often break-stride in the subsequent race, ship to another, and it sometimes is a lesser track too, for a cooler, or will have the horse rise a bit in class to give a good excuse for a more lackadaisical kind of race vs. the classier horses,,, but most often with the new top-SR, a week or two off, to give the muscles a little healing time...Good and Winning trainers know this, and use this regimen with regularity...Often enough, especially with the week or two off scenario sometimes I will notice, when I am ready to exploit that new SR, an honest trainer, will actually scratch the horse on race nite...Smart trainer, the horse wasn't properly healed yet...Smart... And I would be so glad to see that brutal honesty on the trainers part, as it probably saved me from making a play on a horse that wouldn't have fired anyway, due to the "bounce"...haha

If a handicapper gets that part of SR's, he will understand winning and losing a bit more...

[Stick]

It makes a lot of sense what you wrote about looking for a reason to validate the rise in speed rating. Here is another example I came across a few weeks back ( Feb 4th) at the Meadowlands. In the 3rd race the #6 Perseverant fired to the lead and got caught right at the wire posting an 85. In the previous 5 starts he never got higher than 79. This was his first start for a new barn off the claim. But he was claimed again so the Feb 4th start was not with that previous trainer. So that throws out that reason if he repeats the performance. However, the last start was with Callahan, who did not drive the horse in any of the previous starts. Callahan was up again in the Feb 4th start. Also, a much more aggressive driver and much better on the lead than Marcus Miller, who drove the previous three times.

[willphorse]

One detail to keep in mind as well is the class of the horse. The classier, the less likely a bounce is eminent, whereas a low NW or Claimer type pops a big number and follows it up with a dud. Trip also plays a role. Suck-along, or did the horse go first over into a 15 mph headwind and hang around?

[pandy]

One detail to keep in mind as well is the class of the horse. The classier, the less likely a bounce is eminent, whereas a low NW or Claimer type pops a big number and follows it up with a dud. Trip also plays a role. Suck-along, or did the horse go first over into a 15 mph headwind and hang around?

I consider speed ratings to be the most important factor in harness handicapping, but I am cautious of betting horses off of huge efforts where they go much faster than they usually do, especially, as you say, with horses that are not top class.

My best keys are horses that have been consistently earning similar figures. For example, here's two scenarios using top three contenders and their last three figures. In Race A, the 1 horse comes off a very fast performance and will probably go off at a short price, even if its going up in class. This is not a good bet. If the horse was moving up in class and the odds on the 2 horse was generous, I may bet against the favorite here.

In Race B, the 1 horse is a horse that I'll use as a key horse in exotics if the odds aren't that low. This horse is consistent, and faster than the other main contenders...a likely winner.

Race A

1 horse 99, 90, 90
2 horse 90, 90, 88
3 horse 88, 89, 90

Race B

1 horse 90, 90, 89
2 horse 88, 87, 89
3 horse 87, 88, 89

[Stick]

Has anyone looked into whether the TM speed ratings are any better than the final times listed in the program? Also, can these program times be improved by trip adjustment or is one just spinning his wheels?

[Ray2000]

You need to start with a Track speed rating that's up to date and a Daily Track Variance. Those 2 numbers contribute the biggest errors. The clock time is solid.
I adjust for Park outs on turns, Trailing starting positions and driver ability.

I gave up on Trackmaster's Speed ratings but strangely enough their Class numbers are good even tho they're based on all the speed ratings in a race.
A plus or minus 3 point change in class is a good indication of class drop, class up.

[pandy]

Has anyone looked into whether the TM speed ratings are any better than the final times listed in the program? Also, can these program times be improved by trip adjustment or is one just spinning his wheels?

They should be better because they speed ratings are adjusted by the track variant. Personally, I think they're good. Using the final times gets tricky in the winter when the track speed changes a lot, and of course the TM SR does pretty good for shipper adjustments.

[Stick]

When racing at the Meadowlands I do not like the shipper ratings except for Yonkers. I find most of the other shipper numbers to be too high.

[Stick]

Ray,

How do you go about adjusting for driver ability?

[Ray2000]

Ray,

How do you go about adjusting for driver ability?

Stick

It's a bit arbitrary, based on the old adage "a switch to good driver can take a second off a horse's time".
Final times in the pplines are adjusted by ADDING a second to the race time if driver had a Win% > 15%
and SUBTRACTING a second if the ppline driver was below 10% win percentage.

When getting a predicted speed rating for the current race, that adjustment will wash out if there's no driver change.
(Final prediction minus a second for a top driver)

Attached is the Driver numbers I'm currently using.

[pandy]

When racing at the Meadowlands I do not like the shipper ratings except for Yonkers. I find most of the other shipper numbers to be too high.

I have my own speed tables, so I can compare my speed figures to theirs when I run m Diamond System. It's difficult to adjust for tracks, I've tweaked it many times.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

I have seen some posts about speed ratings and how people throw out a rating that is considerably higher than any of the others. That sounds like a good move in theory. However, I have come across a few lately that seem to put this to the test. By that I mean I look at the horses lines and the speed rating in question does not appear to me to be outside the box of what the horse can normally do. But is much higher than the others. For the following example I am using TM speed ratings. Today in the 10th at Dover I notice Enhance Your Mind wired the field in 151:1 in her last start at Dover. This line does not appear to me to be anything out of the ordinary for this horse. But as I glance at the speed ratings for this horse, the 95 for this race is 6 ahead of all the other ratings listed. I have seen this a few times lately at the Meadowlands also. I was hoping any of you that use speed ratings in your handicapping could explain if you have come across these types of situations and how you proceed.

Track speeds change daily and you have to pay attention. In general, DD is faster than M1. You usually get very little value with DD shippers. Burke has onethat finished secongd at 10-1 on saturday night, but that individual horse was blocked with pace in his last start at DD.

Stga is ridiculously fast. Fhld has been the slowest half mile track.

YR tends to be very fast because of how far before the start the starter releases the field. This means the horses are going faster at the start at YR than any other track.

But this can all change in a heartbeat. Keep track of individual days at individual tracks. There was one day last year at YR that produced 9 winners next time out at other tracks -- many at good prices.

[pandy]

Track speeds change daily and you have to pay attention. In general, DD is faster than M1. You usually get very little value with DD shippers. Burke has onethat finished secongd at 10-1 on saturday night, but that individual horse was blocked with pace in his last start at DD.

Stga is ridiculously fast. Fhld has been the slowest half mile track.

YR tends to be very fast because of how far before the start the starter releases the field. This means the horses are going faster at the start at YR than any other track.

But this can all change in a heartbeat. Keep track of individual days at individual tracks. There was one day last year at YR that produced 9 winners next time out at other tracks -- many at good prices.

I agree with most of what you said, but not Yonkers. The one mile races at Yonkers start closer to the first turn than any track in harness racing, because years ago they wanted to lengthen the stretch from 440 feet to 660 feet and they moved the finish line up. This makes is extremely difficult to leave. They are supposed to go back to the old finish line, but for some reason, even though they moved it and announced that it was going to change, they still haven't changed it.

When evaluating trips at Yonkers, since the race starts so close to the first turn, the first quarters are slower than they should be with the quality of horses they have. The trips are important because some horses use a lot of energy racing three wide into and around the turn and tire, then go to another track, or get a better post, and race much better. When and if they go back to the old finish line, the first quarter times, and the final times, should be faster.