HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SUN 2/19

[Nitro]

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields in ALL 10 races with 7 on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections that are based on a static tote analysis will follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds. I’ve used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: #3 - #5 - #6 - #10
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher than 50%.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) D……....1-5 W/ 6-9-3-2 ................12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1200M (6F) T …......1-2 W/ 8-12-11-13 ……..12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#3 - 1200M (6F) T.........5-10 W/ 1-2-3-8...............1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1200M (6F) D…….....2-1 W/ 4-11-8-7…...…...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1200M (6F) D…….....7-1 W/ 3-5-4-6................2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1800M (9F) T…........6-3 W/ 1-2-12-8…….…..2:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 2000M (10F) T..........1-6 W/ 10-2-4-7................3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1800M (9F) T.….......1-2 W/ 8-4-3-6 …….…….3:35 AM EST


R#9 - 1400M (7F) T.….......9-2 W/ 3-4-5-12 …….......4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1400M (7F) T.….....1-5 W/ 9-8-2-13 …….…...4:45 AM EST

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget!

If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1-5 W/ 6-9-3-2
Live Tote Results: 2-3-8-5 – Live Dutch 82% Profit Margin – Pass
6th choice $7.70 Early & 2nd choice Live–$40.00 QUIN & $2,381.80 TRI BX w/#8–Live tote Watch
Lots of solid late action on the Winner

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1-2 W/ 8-12-11-13
Live Tote Results: 2-1-3-13 – Dutch 56% Profit Margin !
2nd choice $55.10 Early & Live – $66.50 QUIN Cold

[Nitro]

R#3 - 5-10 W/ 1-2-3-8 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 3-8-1-12 - Dutch 100% Profit Margin - Out
5th choice $45.30 Early & Live – $220.90 QUIN & $3,011.40 TRI BX
Lots of solid late action on #1 – 2nd choice Live

[Nitro]

R#4 - 2-1 W/ 4-11-8-7 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 4-1-8-6 - Dutch 106% Profit Margin !
3rd choice $12.30 Early & 2nd choice Live – $21.90 QUIN & $499.20 TRI BX

[Nitro]

R#5 - 7-1 W/ 3-5-4-6 All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 6-1-5-12 – Live Dutch 52% Profit Margin !
6th choice $15.10 Early & 3rd choice Live – $61.80 QUIN & $1,171.60 TRI BX
Solid action on the Winner!

[Nitro]

R#6 - 6-3 W/ 1-2-12-8
Live Tote Results: 9-7-11-8 - Dutch 80% Profit Margin - Out
Out Early & Live – Not much betting action on those in the money but BIG results!

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-6 W/ 10-2-4-7 /#5 – Live tote Watch – All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 5-7-4-10 - Dutch 58% Profit Margin !
Out Early & Top (Watch) choice $6.20 Live – $34.90 QUIN & $183.40 TRI BX
Solid action on the Winner throughtout! (No action on original top choice)

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-2 W/ 8-4-3-6 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 1-4-8-3 - Dutch 25% Profit Margin - PASS
Top choice $3.40 Early & Live – $18.70 QUIN / $106.40 TRI BX – (Very Generous!)
Solid action on the Winner throughout! And a 146.9 for 9 furlongs!

[Nitro]

R#9 - 9-2 W/ 3-4-5-12
Live Tote Results: 6-8-11-1 - Dutch 189% Profit Margin - Out
Out Early & Live

[Nitro]

R#10 - 1-5 W/ 9-8-2-13 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 13-8-9-12 - Live Dutch 62% Profit Margin
6th choice Early & Top choice $4.60 Live & $10.40 QUIN / $84.00 TRI –
Solid action on the Winner throughout & lots of late action on the Placer!

[AltonKelsey]

Another YUGE day of live tote free money. Thanks!

[lamboguy]

Another YUGE day of live tote free money. Thanks!you must be someone special, how do you happen to know what the live tote runners are?

[Nitro]

you must be someone special, how do you happen to know what the live tote runners are?
He doesn't unless he's following the tote action each race very carefully, and comparing it to the early selections posted.