SHOW BETTING

[HIGH ROLLER]

hi, i am clearing out my files, and have a pencil and paper system from mike depasquale for show betting. it works very well.

it cost $79 i would be willing to sell it for $20 if anyone is interested.

he is the guy that advertises in the DRF.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I am thankful you are willing to lose $59 on a show system you found again while cleaning out, but I have my own +ROI system for place/shgow that I previously gave out free here.
If you want to email or photcopy and snail mail it to me I wil tell you if and how you can change it around to make it profitable, if possible but I cannot use it.

[maxwell]

I would love to see show pools where the top 3 ML horses are excluded . They could call it " Horsepoker " and make a reality show out of it. :D

Bring it onnnnnn ! :cool:

[timtam]

Highroller,

I'd be glad to pay $20 for a $79 system especially if it works!!!

[NoDayJob]

Show betting? It only makes sense if you run a $20-$50 show parlay. You need at least 4 races in the parlay to make any kind of money. Do these a couple of times a week and retire. Ha, ha!

NDJ

[kenwoodallpromos]

I never figured out how to make money on show parlay, but I'll take your word, and that the $59 thing works well.
I find that regardless of the bet size, betting show on low odds horses does best with larger fields.

[hurrikane]

I"m willing to make a win wager right now.

No one has a show system that shows a positive ROI over a long period of races. You can beat the take betting show.

Wanna bet?

[CapperLou]

I have never heard of anyone being able to be profitable over a long time period playing to show.

Hurricane has it right---there is no way to beat the takeout playing horses to show only.

On the other hand---it is possible to be profitable playing or win or place!!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[timtam]

Did you say you can beat the take betting show or are you saying you can't beat the take betting show?

[CapperLou]

I'm sure hurricane's post is a misprint--should be can't beat the take!!!

Anyway, my post is what it says---cannot beat the takeout playing to show. I personally know a few guys who have lost 100's of thousands trying to make money playing to show, but that's another story.

If bookmaking were legal here, I would love anybody's action betting to show. Nuff said!!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[charleslanger]

Apart from stereotypicaI 'bridgejump betting', I disagree completely re not making money on show-- couple of examples:

Case in point 1. Some off-shore books will not even accept show bets, & most cap betting limits in the following manner:

Win: x amount

Place: 1/3 - 1/2 win amount

Show: 1/3 - 1/2 place amount-- to as low as $25-50 for some tracks....
...this is often in addition to not applying rebates to ALL show bets, or at least to those paying $2.20 / 2.10;
so not even the notion of laying off at the track & having to still pay a rebate on top would provide the answer/excuse..

Another way to look at this or any other question re possible profit is to see what well-funded & well-informed entities(in this case bet-takers for the most part) are doing, rather than poorly-funded & poorly-informed ones(the great majority of us-- comparatively speaking. This also applies in most other areas: even if i were to say, own one successful pizza joint, i wouldn't compare to the chains & their tens of thousands of joints each for example.): they are uniquely positioned to squeeze significant profits from even miniscule advantages(due to their volume) that would not be worth the time of those not employing sufficiently large volume. It's very telling when the great majority avoid something...

Case in point 2. CTOTB / Autote has several editions each year of a no-limit / real-fund contest:
One deposits $200 and is then free to bet it on any menu track & parimutuel bet...... everyone keeps all proceeds & remaining bankroll, and is elegible for further cash & other prizes depending on final rank......

For this year's edition they have not only nixed show betting, they sternly caution that they just won't invalidate the bet-- but that they'll disqualify the entrant from the contest-- and further will confiscate the contestant's bankroll-- which not only does not belong to them, but to boot is not even used to seed the prize money!!!

HHhhmmmm...... Things that make yoy go hhhmmmm.........
.

[Mike at A+]

I saw a great tee shirt at my local OTW here in PA. It said:

"Friends don't let friends bet show"!

[Holy Bull]

Originally posted by charleslanger
Apart from stereotypicaI 'bridgejump betting', I disagree completely re not making money on show-- couple of examples:

Case in point 1. Some off-shore books will not even accept show bets, & most cap betting limits in the following manner:

Win: x amount

Place: 1/3 - 1/2 win amount

Show: 1/3 - 1/2 place amount-- to as low as $25-50 for some tracks....
...this is often in addition to not applying rebates to ALL show bets, or at least to those paying $2.20 / 2.10;
so not even the notion of laying off at the track & having to still pay a rebate on top would provide the answer/excuse..

Another way to look at this or any other question re possible profit is to see what well-funded & well-informed entities(in this case bet-takers for the most part) are doing, rather than poorly-funded & poorly-informed ones(the great majority of us-- comparatively speaking. This also applies in most other areas: even if i were to say, own one successful pizza joint, i wouldn't compare to the chains & their tens of thousands of joints each for example.): they are uniquely positioned to squeeze significant profits from even miniscule advantages(due to their volume) that would not be worth the time of those not employing sufficiently large volume. It's very telling when the great majority avoid something...

Case in point 2. CTOTB / Autote has several editions each year of a no-limit / real-fund contest:
One deposits $200 and is then free to bet it on any menu track & parimutuel bet...... everyone keeps all proceeds & remaining bankroll, and is elegible for further cash & other prizes depending on final rank......

For this year's edition they have not only nixed show betting, they sternly caution that they just won't invalidate the bet-- but that they'll disqualify the entrant from the contest-- and further will confiscate the contestant's bankroll-- which not only does not belong to them, but to boot is not even used to seed the prize money!!!

HHhhmmmm...... Things that make yoy go hhhmmmm.........
.

Its called pool manipulation :)

[charleslanger]

Holy Bull:
Its called pool manipulation
Not at the maximums posted-- IMO: (forgetting the lower tracks) if a win max at a class a / b circuit is 500 or 1000, while the show is 100 or 200: it's just to preclude any meaningful parlaying... Otherwise i fail to see how even a 1K show bet(equal win/show maximums) can be used in manipulating, since it would take considerably more money to alter the pools-- even with cancelled bets? Am i missing something?

[Holy Bull]

Some of these smaller harness tracks there are 2 or 300 in the entire show pool. If you could get a few hundred down at 5 or more offshore places it very doable. Or if you get a $50 show payout to win a 5 figure prize in a contest.

[pmd62ndst]

A while ago, I found a method of wagering on heavy favorites to show and it nearly guaranteed a -3% ROI with a surprisingly little amount of variance. I figured that if I could use my Pinnacle account with it's 7% rebate, I would get a nice little 4% return.

Then, I found out (the hard way) that Pinnacle does not offer rebates for $2.20 show or place payoffs. That ultimately made the entire method useless.

Still, I think that there has to be ways to make show plays profitable. Haven't found it yet though...

PMD

[Mike at A+]

Betting show is as exciting as watching paint dry - unless the 1/9 favorite runs out and your horse finishes in the money. But that happens about once every 1,000 races. I'd rather hit a big superfecta in one of those 1,000 races and lose the other 999.

[charleslanger]

Holy Bull: I see your both your points-- especially for the contest...

[hurrikane]

sorry for the misprint.

it is can not beat the take with show betting.

I"ve seen a couple of things come close. I've seen a couple of place plays that could do it. nothing in the show column.

As for the not accepting bets. They don't want to get hit with the one time kill. I'm talking about long term churning...not going to happen.

[Jeff P]

Over the past decade I have run literally thousands of queries against my database. I'm always looking for new and better ways of betting the horses. In that time I have stumbled across a handful of criteria that do result in profitable play. ALL of the profitable methods and ideas I have been able to identify share the following relationship when comparing WIN vs PLACE vs SHOW as do 99 percent of the unprofitable ideas and methods that I have seen and tested:

If you tally up the all the money you'd receive for cashable WIN tickets, this always returns more money back to you than the amount you'd receive for PLACE. If you tally up the all the money you'd receive for cashable PLACE tickets, this always returns more money back to you than the amount you'd receive for SHOW.

This holds true no matter what criteria or angle you look at. I've seen it so many times that I just tend to accept it as one of racing's few universal truths.

This isn't to say that you can't devise a method that returns a profit in the show pool. Several of my own models are profitable on the show end. But I never even consider betting any of these horses to show, not even as a hedge here and there and not even when somebody else has created a bridgejumper situation on another horse.

Why? Because my own carefully kept records tell me that if I bet to WIN instead of PLACE or SHOW I end up with far more money at the end of the day/week/month/year.

[Valuist]

It looked like a mini-bridgejumper bit the dust today in the opener at Arlington. Of all races, NW2 claimers? Anyone dumb enough to bridgejump on conditioned claimers deserves to lose.

[MichaelNunamaker]

Hi Jeff,

You wrote "This holds true no matter what criteria or angle you look at. I've seen it so many times that I just tend to accept it as one of racing's few universal truths."

I have no doubt this is what you have seen in your queries. And, indeed, that is what I also see on _most_ things. However, I occasionally see the reverse. For example, I have a formula for looking at dirt sprints that for 2004 in 18722 races has a win roi of -9%, place roi of -8%, and a show roi of -6%.

Indeed, one very old catagory where this inverted pattern seems to have always held true is favorites. As of a few weeks ago, for all T-bred racing in North America for 2004, I calculated 28979 races and win roi was -16%, place roi was -9% and show roi was -8.5%.

[KingChas]

Sounds like Day Trading = Suicide.

[charleslanger]

Running a system query individually vs each of win, place, and show is very commendable-- but only the first step.

Next step is to run the results through an investment / bankroll management program that will adjust bets depending on hit rate & avg return. In other words, one would not wager in the same mode with say, a Win System: hit rate 27% & avg. price $9.35 / as with a Show System: hit 88% avg. $2.20(i've purposely given this last system a negative expectation for several reasons, including for the sake of argument).

I gather most understand the point of not applying flat betting(as this would likely make any profits not worth the time involved--neither should we apply Kelly, as this can bring ruin with just mild win % fluctuations which will occur normally as part of standard deviation).

So let's say we've devised a system with fairly complex rules re betting either a favorite or one of the co-favorites when there isn't a clear-cut favorite(no need to be using only heavy favorites, but that's another topic unto itself) -- we have a Show System(can actually be anything: a multi-horse Win Dutch, multi-horse Exotics Box, etc.) with a negative expectation: hit 88% avg. $2.20 for a minus 3.2% expectancy. I've purposely set the avg. payoff ridiculously low for the sake of arbument-- as there are plenty of show payoffs in the $3 & change level(even for 3/5 shots), & occasionally as high as $5 & change. In fact, a system i'm testing would work real well at Pinnacle-- would receive a rebate 9 times out of 10-- dispells the fallacy of 2.10, 2.10 (often a mnimum potential show price can be safely avoided by switching to the place pool-- the win % in those particular cases does not diminish significantly, again-- fodder for another thread).
Using concepts gleaned from reading Horse Market Investing-- particularly its complement The Contrarian Method, as well as HSH video #14(it's not my express intent to purposely plug products I enjoy immensely-- but some formula/product needs to be used: Flat betting & Kelly won't do-- and more importantly, some tome or reference source needs to be used to obtain the knowledge / formula and apply it)-- we deduce that at this high hit rate we can(& must really) safely use parlays of 4(the actual numbers of this example are not crucial & may well be different-- if the hit rate is lower, with an accompanying rise in avg. price, the parlay number could be 3 instead of 4).
For the sake of this example will use a session of 20 bets-- with one extra rule: the parlay of 4(or 3)must be carried to coclusion(whether win or loss) before the session is closed-- so a session could end up containing an extra bet or two over 20.

Ok, at this win percentage, the average session will contain two losses--Let's set a real disadvantageous scenario: our first bet will lose, and we will also place the other losing bet towards the end of a winning parlay-- so our 1st & 13th bets.... And one modification-- after a loss we will add one extra to the follwiing parlay: making the next streak 5 instead of 4-- we can safely assume the next loss won't be soon in coming at such high win percentages(assuming we've performed statistical validation).

We will use a $100 base bet and round any odd change up to the nearest dollar:
bet 1= -100
bets 2,3,4,5,6= 162.80 - 101.50 = $61.30 net actual churn is 100 + 110 + 121 + 134 + 148 = $613
bets 7,8,9,10=147.40 - 100.90(wagered) leaves a net of $46.50 actual churn is 100 + 110 + 121 + 134 = $465
bets 11,12,13= -100
bets 14,15,16,17,18= 162.80 - 101.50 = $61.30 net actual churn is 100 + 110 + 121 + 134 + 148 = $613
bets 19,20,21,22=147.40 - 100.90(wagered) leaves a net of $46.50 actual churn is 100 + 110 + 121 + 134 = $465

Summary: 61.3 + 61.3 + 46.5 + 46.5 = 215.6 - 200 = 15.6 or + 7.8% roi instead of - 3.2, for a swing of 11%

Largest exposure: only in the very beginning of session during first win streak, at bet 5 we were $201.50 into our funds, or @ 2 units.

(Though it's a topic for another thread, i repeat that these prices are not indicative-- a tiny fraction of actual ones... The trick is finding at which tracks(s) such a system works(& of course, within each track, at which class levels, track surfaces & conditions), and if able to find say, 2 or 3 that run at simultaneous times-- for which this worsk, then the parlays are double-triple in duration. The bet churn is huge, with very little out-of-pocket outlay-- enabling rebates from others much higher than Pinnacle's 7%-- though the profits are so high, that rebates don't matter much. Enough off-topic.)

Peace.
.

[Jeff P]

Hi Mike,

Let me be the first to admit when I'm wrong. Even a software developer/beach bum like myself can stand to learn something new from time to time. By the way, I've been told I have a mind like a steel trap: nothing gets in there...

Apparently, favorites are one exception.

Looking at what I have, surface and distance appear to matter when it comes to win roi vs palce roi vs show roi for favorites.

SURF...DIST.......WIN ROI....PLA ROI....SHO ROI
----------------------------------------------------------
TURF...ROUTE......(.8557)......(.8706)...(.8813)
TURF...SPRINT.....(.9026)......(.7991)...(.8158)
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8242)......(.9010)...(.9054)
DIRT...SPRINT......(.8359)......(.8877)...(.8977)


Class appears to matter too. Dirt Route Maiden Claiming races appear to have the highest place and show roi for favorites of any race type.

SURF...DIST.......WIN ROI....PLA ROI...SHO ROI....CLASS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8490)......(.9164)...(.9322).. ..Claiming Optional
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8257)......(.9144)...(.9111).. ..Claiming
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8895)......(.9557)...(.9424).. ..Mdn Claiming
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8098)......(.8741)...(.8936).. ..Mdn SPLWT
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8036)......(.8654)...(.8832).. ..ALW
DIRT...ROUTE......(.6957)......(.8403)...(.8578).. ..Graded Stakes
DIRT...ROUTE......(.7984)......(.8568)...(.8977).. ..Listed Stakes
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8910)......(.9283)...(.8586).. ..Starter Alw/H

All the above numbers are for favorites only and are taken from a sample of approximately 15,000 races.

By the way, the most interesting number to me from the above list happens to be the WIN ROI for favorites in Dirt Route Graded Stakes Races.

Mike, do your numbers approximate these?

[charleslanger]

Valuist:
It looked like a mini-bridgejumper bit the dust today in the opener at Arlington. Of all races, NW2 claimers? Anyone dumb enough to bridgejump on conditioned claimers deserves to lose.
I initially gave some thought to maybe using it in the contest, along with the winner of the third, but it just had some strange and/or possibly negative aspects-- the whole situation didn't look so positive, not dealing from a position of strength.....

And as you allude to the race class, for a bridgejump bet: nw2L pretty much assumes seconditis/hanging, thereby discounting the win slot & most of the safety net: now only one other of the rest of the field can beat it, in order to cash.

The kiss of death was the running style emplyed: this horse was supposed to close/rate & not mess with the early pace.......

[zieglerjw]

kenwoodallpromos : Is there any chance of posting that method for place/show betting ?? I must have missed that post !! Or PM to (zieglerjimbo@wmconnect.com) Thanks for any reply !!

[formula_2002]

Jeff , if you dont mind, what do the roi's look like in races where there are no entries (prior to and after post time) and the field size>=6 (just to insure a show pay-off).

Thanks
Joe M

[Mike at A+]

Originally posted by Jeff P
Hi Mike,Let me be the first to admit when I'm wrong. Even a software developer/beach bum like myself ..... Mike, do your numbers approximate these?

Hi Jeff. If I'm the Mike your question is directed toward, my numbers are probably close to what you're showing. I say close because I'm not at my computer right now and can't do a comparison. But I have monthly stats posted on my website at http://users.rcn.com/aplus/indext.htm. Scroll down a bit to get to the links leading to the monthly Tracker reports. Keep in mind that the only stats I am displaying are the ones that have been profitable during the particular month. They run from last September through June of this year and they encompass over 35,000 races at close to 50 tracks. Tracker can also display losing strategies but the files would be huge because 93 different betting strategies are tracked. But I don't track "favorites". Tracker is geared towards the output of A+ Thoroughbred version 7.0 and I use it both as a betting tool as well as a means of quickly determining how I did at a particular track on a particular day (which helps me immensely when I post my promos on Trackmaster's web site). When I use it to bet, I usually run a "profitable strategy" report for the track I'm betting (or group of tracks if appropriate - like I used AQU and BEL to bet SAR these past few days as I had no SAR data from last year). Tracker was basically a joint idea of myself and a few A+ customers with the eventual goal being full integration with A+ Thoroughbred 8.0 whereby the Graded Analysis Reports will include suggested bets based upon Tracker statistics. For example, lets take a sprint dirt claimer at BEL. Tracker may reveal that betting the top choice in such a race shows a loss of 10% but betting the 2nd choice when it is an overlay and the top choice is not an overlay results in a 15% positive ROI. The Graded Analysis Report will list horse number 2 and its profitability index under the last horse in the race on the report. I have a lot of programming to do to accomplish this but I have the ideas pretty much determined and I always have a team of 4 or 5 A+ customers who are willing to beta test for me. I plan on taking on this project after the Saratoga meet. I'll try and post progress in the A+ Software Upgrade folder under Handicapping Software. Good luck.

[Jeff P]

Joe,

I don't have a field in my database to identify the race as having an entry or not- so testing that would take some time- I'd have to first add the field, then create logic to handle it, and finally re-run all races.

But, size of field definitely matters:

SURF...DIST.......WIN ROI....PLA ROI....SHO ROI....FieldSize
------------------------------------------------------------------
DIRT...ROUTE......(.7304)......(.8225)...(.8020).. ....(5 or fewer)
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8313)......(.9070)...(.9132).. ....(6 or more)
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8251)......(.9136)...(.9183).. ....(8 or more)
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8305)......(.9349)...(.9314).. ...(10 or more)
DIRT...ROUTE......(.8117)......(.8309)...(.8914).. ...(12 or more)



I also knew from prior testing that rank and gap for Prime Power along with gap for Last Race Bris figure matter when it comes to favorites. So here's a little spot play I just found that's profitable.

The rules:

1. Favorites Only

2. Dirt Routes Only

3. Rank for Prime Power = 1

4. Gap for Prime Power between 0 and 2, inclusive. (Those with more than a 2 point gap are just too obvious to the public and get overbet.)

5. Gap for Last Race Bris figure >= 3. (Those without at least a 3 point edge in this situation don't win often enough to get a profit in the win spot.)


SURF...DIST.......WIN ROI....PLA ROI....SHO ROI
---------------------------------------------------------------
DIRT...ROUTE.....(1.0467)...(1.0701)...(1.0008)


There were only 197 plays found in the 15,000 race sample. But then whadd'ya want for nuthin? Rrrubber biscuit?

[formula_2002]

Jeff, thanks for the reply.
The Place and Show roi's may very well increase when entry races are factored out. Example, a two horse entry may be counted in your data base a two horses, but the pays offs are for 1.


I can not come close to the difference in the win, place and show payoffs that you guys are getting. In my most recent races, I get the following.

26590 horses

total win mutual $39248
Place $39786
Show $ 39090

Can not figure out why that should be.

Joe M

[Jeff P]

Joe,

I should clarify one thing. In my database, if an individual horse is part of an entry, I have a field to identify that. What I don't have in the database is a field to flag the race as having an entry. So when I run queries, the only entries I see are those that fit the criteria of the query itself- in this case, favored horses.

In the results I reported, if a favored horse is part of an entry, and either half of the entry runs first, second, or third, then the payoff for that spot is accumulated into the totals. And when the favored entry runs one-two, and the entry sweeps the place pool, the slightly elevated payoff for that is accumulated into the totals.

Entries in a race outside of horses I run queries on might either strengthen or weaken show payoffs, depending on various circumstances. I just have no way of testing it at the moment.

[Jeff P]

Mike at A+,

Actually, my post was a rreply to a post made by Michael Nunamaker who questioned something I posted.

Good luck and continued success with your efforts.

[highnote]

These studies are interesting and insightful.

Do you have any way of looking at the place and show payoffs when the place and show horses are underbet to place and show versus their win bets?

For example, say the favorite has 30% of the win pool money bet on him, but only 25% of the place and show money. What is the ROI to place and show on those horses?

It probably isn't possible to beat the place and show pool by betting every single favorite in every single race because the market is pretty efficient. However, when the market makes mistakes and is inefficient what is the ROI?

The best example is this year's Belmont Stakes. Smarty Jones' place payoff was $3.30 and his show was $2.60. Yet, had he won he'd have paid about 2.40 or 2.60. Now that's a market inefficiency!

I will admit betting place and show is boring, especially if you're only making $20 bets. However, if you're betting $500 to place or show it becomes a pretty exciting wager. If fact, I think it's much more exciting to make a large place or show wager with a good chance of doubling my money than making a $1 superfecta box of 4 or 5 horses with a much smaller chance of cashing.

[Jeff P]

Hi Swetyejohn,


You posted: Do you have any way of looking at the place and show payoffs when the place and show horses are underbet to place and show versus their win bets?

Unfortunately, no. I don't have any way of looking at that. I've never tried to capture and study percentage distributions across the various pool types. However, I do find the idea very intriguing, especially when it comes to larger fields on big money days such as the Breeder's Cup or Triple Crown races where media hype tends to draw more attention to the races than say just another typical Saturday. You mentioned place for Smarty Jones in the Belmont. Just from memory alone, there have been many others over the years on big money types of days where the favorite won and the place and show payoffs seemed surprisingly high. Lion Heart's place price in this year's Ky Derby comes to mind.

[highnote]

That's a pretty common type error the public makes -- underbetting place and show on hyped horses. The public must think that a hyped favorite won't pay fair value to place or show so they don't bet the horse. Also, there are so many types of bets available these days it's hard to watch all the pools. When's the last time you bet a quinella that paid more than the exacta? It happens, but how many people even pay attention to the quinella pools?