Run up, real world example

[cj]

Sunday at Gulfstream races 9 and 12 were both run on the turf course with the temporary rail set at 36 feet. Race 9 had a run up of 89 feet and race 12 had a run up of 147 feet. I verified these via video and they are accurate.

The official time of race 9 was 1:28.85 and the official time for race 12 was 1:28.69. It appears race 12 was faster by about a length.

I timed the races from the gate. Race 9 went in 92.43 and race 12 was timed in 93.56. But keep in mind, race 12 was at a distance 58 feet longer. I then equalized the races to exactly 7.5f. Race 9 was now rated at 1:30.79; race 12 1:30.86.

The official times credit race 12 with being 0.16 seconds faster, but in reality race 9 was about 0.07 seconds faster. This is a difference of 0.23 seconds, roughly the equivalent of a length and a half in distance. While this isn't huge, I don't think any bettor would say it is trivial either. This is a good example of how run up can distort final times. It also isn't rare. There are many examples where the difference is much greater.

[Si2see]

Sunday at Gulfstream races 9 and 12 were both run on the turf course with the temporary rail set at 36 feet. Race 9 had a run up of 89 feet and race 12 had a run up of 147 feet. I verified these via video and they are accurate.

The official time of race 9 was 1:28.85 and the official time for race 12 was 1:28.69. It appears race 12 was faster by about a length.

I timed the races from the gate. Race 9 went in 92.43 and race 12 was timed in 93.56. But keep in mind, race 12 was at a distance 58 feet longer. I then equalized the races to exactly 7.5f. Race 9 was now rated at 1:30.79; race 12 1:30.86.

The official times credit race 12 with being 0.16 seconds faster, but in reality race 9 was about 0.07 seconds faster. This is a difference of 0.23 seconds, roughly the equivalent of a length and a half in distance. While this isn't huge, I don't think any bettor would say it is trivial either. This is a good example of how run up can distort final times. It also isn't rare. There are many examples where the difference is much greater.

A length and a half is huge when you get beat by a nose......

Good information again.
Jason

[Ruffian1]

CJ,

That is great work and I am sure it is appreciated.

It's just a shame that any track to say nothing of a place like Gulfstream, would allow this stuff to happen.

What a joke as well as a slap in the face to anyone, handicapper, horseman, jock, whoever, that is affected by it.

Just pathetic.

[EMD4ME]

CJ,

That is great work and I am sure it is appreciated.

It's just a shame that any track to say nothing of a place like Gulfstream, would allow this stuff to happen.

What a joke as well as a slap in the face to anyone, handicapper, horseman, jock, whoever, that is affected by it.

Just pathetic.

I think it's done on purpose, so that those in the know, know.

No proof. Please don't blast me PA but my humble opinion.

[EMD4ME]

Sunday at Gulfstream races 9 and 12 were both run on the turf course with the temporary rail set at 36 feet. Race 9 had a run up of 89 feet and race 12 had a run up of 147 feet. I verified these via video and they are accurate.

The official time of race 9 was 1:28.85 and the official time for race 12 was 1:28.69. It appears race 12 was faster by about a length.

I timed the races from the gate. Race 9 went in 92.43 and race 12 was timed in 93.56. But keep in mind, race 12 was at a distance 58 feet longer. I then equalized the races to exactly 7.5f. Race 9 was now rated at 1:30.79; race 12 1:30.86.

The official times credit race 12 with being 0.16 seconds faster, but in reality race 9 was about 0.07 seconds faster. This is a difference of 0.23 seconds, roughly the equivalent of a length and a half in distance. While this isn't huge, I don't think any bettor would say it is trivial either. This is a good example of how run up can distort final times. It also isn't rare. There are many examples where the difference is much greater.

AWESOME WORK SIR! As usual :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

CJ, do you mind breaking down the effects on run up and early pace on the June 6th 6th and 11th races at Belmont, of 2015 :lol: :lol: :lol:

I'm halfway kidding. Yes, I'm still on that point. :lol:

[cj]

CJ, do you mind breaking down the effects on run up and early pace on the June 6th 6th and 11th races at Belmont, of 2015 :lol: :lol: :lol:

I'm halfway kidding. Yes, I'm still on that point. :lol:

I already did privately when I made the figs for the King 😀

[steveb]

I think it's done on purpose, so that those in the know, know.

No proof. Please don't blast me PA but my humble opinion.


why would they purposely display wrong info?

those 'in the know' from my experience, mostly don't exist, and if they did they would be checking for themselves, rather than taking anything at face value.
the real 'in the know' people are those like cj, that confirm/negate for themselves.

we had people confirming times for every race at every meeting where ever.
thus it matters not if its wrong or not, because everything is(past tense for me) checked.

the biggest problem, is that you still don't always know if the distance was correct, because in effect, half the time they don't move the gates forwards to compensate for the rail being out, and if the do it's only approximate.

it appears to me that your country is just as bad as australia in this regard, worse actually, because there is no run ups here.

[EMD4ME]

I already did privately when I made the figs for the King 😀

Who's the King? :confused:

[EMD4ME]

why would they purposely display wrong info?

those 'in the know' from my experience, mostly don't exist, and if they did they would be checking for themselves, rather than taking anything at face value.
the real 'in the know' people are those like cj, that confirm/negate for themselves.

we had people confirming times for every race at every meeting where ever.
thus it matters not if its wrong or not, because everything is(past tense for me) checked.

the biggest problem, is that you still don't always know if the distance was correct, because in effect, half the time they don't move the gates forwards to compensate for the rail being out, and if the do it's only approximate.

it appears to me that your country is just as bad as australia in this regard, worse actually, because there is no run ups here.

I didn't say wrong info.

Forgive me for not clarifying. I was referring to the multiple amounts of run ups and rail settings. Joe Shmo who is using a program to cap, has absolutely no idea what the rail settings were, run up etc. I'm referring to the poor old sap who has no clue what the impact of those 2 settings has.

Do they display the info? Yes. I wasn't saying they don't or that it's not accurate.

[Immortal6]

Forgive my ignorance, but why can two races run at the same "distance" have varying lengths of run up? Is this to allow tracks to fudge race times a bit to "level the playing field"?

[EMD4ME]

Forgive my ignorance, but why can two races run at the same "distance" have varying lengths of run up? Is this to allow tracks to fudge race times a bit to "level the playing field"?

My personal opinion is that on Belmont day, NYRA did that to help AP get the fastest possible time.

I don't see anyone who could refute that. They moved that gate back 3 lengths VS. Coach Inge's 12 F race 3-4 hours earlier.

[cj]

Forgive my ignorance, but why can two races run at the same "distance" have varying lengths of run up? Is this to allow tracks to fudge race times a bit to "level the playing field"?

In this case Gulfstream says they do it to save wear on the turf course from the weight of the gate. I think changing the run up on the same day is a poor practice, but that is the reason they give. I've also seen different run ups on the same day for dirt races but not to the same extreme.

[outofthebox]

Forgive my ignorance, but why can two races run at the same "distance" have varying lengths of run up? Is this to allow tracks to fudge race times a bit to "level the playing field"?I've been told that the gates are placed at different positions to prevent wear and tear on the turf ..At least that's what they do at EVD. And they still have trouble timing races...

[cj]

My personal opinion is that on Belmont day, NYRA did that to help AP get the fastest possible time.

I don't see anyone who could refute that. They moved that gate back 3 lengths VS. Coach Inge's 12 F race 3-4 hours earlier.

They did, but in this case it really didn't matter. Horses aren't gunning out of the gate at 12f. Unless the run up is usually 15 feet or less the difference in time is going to be very small.

[cj]

I've been told that the gates are placed at different positions to prevent wear and tear on the turf ..At least that's what they do at EVD. And they still have trouble timing races...

Right, but EVD doesn't do it on the same day. They'll have the gate in one place for races at the same distance and then change it for another day. Gulfstream doesn't do that.

[classhandicapper]

I suspect a lot of people in track management do not understand the extent handicappers go to for information that will give them an edge. If you don't understand why or how much something matters, you are unlikely to make it a priority.

I come from the opposite direction though.

Cleaning all this stuff up is the correct thing to do for the sport, owners, and trainers. You want people to know how far their horses are actually running (at least in the extreme cases) and you want the historical record to be accurate. But as a gambler, I'd prefer this stuff not be corrected and rarely get discussed.

To win, you have to be smarter than other very smart people, have a unique way of measuring something that is as effective as conventional methods, or have information other people don't have.

It's tough to be smarter than teams of very smart people armed with extensive computer power, programming knowledge, advanced statistics backgrounds, and a lot of handicapping experience.

So you better be either doing something unique or have a few insights/bits of information that other people don't have. If you do have something like that, giving it away is not such a great idea. It's different for CJ or Beyer. They are professionals getting paid to give us their best effort at making figures. But for the rest of us, Id rather the thread was locked. :lol:

[classhandicapper]

My personal opinion is that on Belmont day, NYRA did that to help AP get the fastest possible time.

I don't see anyone who could refute that. They moved that gate back 3 lengths VS. Coach Inge's 12 F race 3-4 hours earlier.

I wish American Pharoah would have run one more year so he could have demonstrated to the doubters how good he was. ;) He was no Seattle Slew, but he wasn't chopped liver either.

[Tom]

I love it when reality flies in the face of math.

[thaskalos]

Who's the King? :confused:

LeBron James

[outofthebox]

Right, but EVD doesn't do it on the same day. They'll have the gate in one place for races at the same distance and then change it for another day. Gulfstream doesn't do that.Well, i appreciate all the devotion you put into your product. Sorry you have to go through all the loops Gulfstream hurls at you...

[cj]

LeBron James

He got rolled in OKC on Thursday 😀

[cj]

Well, i appreciate all the devotion you put into your product. Sorry you have to go through all the loops Gulfstream hurls at you...

Thanks. No biggie on Gulfstream. Keeps me.on my toes and I've learned a lot because of the crazy stuff they do.

[ultracapper]

Solid work CJ

[EMD4ME]

LeBron James

Lebron plays horses ? :lol: :lol:

CJ does figs for lebron? :lol: :lol: