HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 2/15

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields in ALL 8 Turf races.

Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED. EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections based on a static tote analysis will follow.
.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds. The static tote analysis has been used to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on (in real time) the LIVE tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by at least 4 mins to post) sometimes reveals things that cause changes to the Top 3 picks through substitutions, but currently they all look very good for some decent Quinella & Triple scores. Other shown entries of interest will only be considered if they’re getting unusual play.

Based on current info there are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #3 - #6 - #7
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce a Profit Margin higher ^ than 50%.
Those races that come in @ 50% or lower are Passed.

R#1 - 1000M (5F) T …......……2-1 W/ 3-4-5-6 .........6:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1650M (8¼F) T...........4-6 W/ 2-8-1-7 ….....6:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #12 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1650M (8¼F) T...........2-3 W/ 8-4-6-9……...7:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1200M (6F) T…….........7-1 W/ 4-3-6-2…......7:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: 5# & #10 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1200M (6F) T……........1-2 W/ 3-5-6-7............8:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1200M (6F) T…….....….2-1 W/ 6-4-5-12……...8:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1650M (8¼F) T..........2-1 W/ 3-4-5-6.............9:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 - 1800M (9F) T……........1-3 W/ 5-2-11-6 ……..9:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:

Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 – 6-5-1-11……....Dutch Profit Margin – 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2– 3.8/1……#5– 15/1………#6– 4.2/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154


Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 – 7-1-10-4…...….Dutch Profit Margin – 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4– 2.1/1……#7– 2.7/1………#2– 10/1

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget! ;)

If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2-1 W/ 3-4-5-6 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 3-2-5-6 – Dutch Pass – 34% Profit Margin
3rd choice $10.70 Early & Live - $12.00 QUIN & $147.00 TRI


R#2 - 4-6 W/ 2-8-1-7 – Watch Live tote #12
Live Tote Results: 12-1-8-2 – Dutch Out 130% Profit Margin
Out Early & 6th (Watch) $21.20 choice Live

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2-3 W/ 8-4-6-9– Watch Live tote #11 -
Live Tote Results: 11-4-2-5 Dutch Out 141% Profit Margin
Out Early & 6th (Watch) $31.40 choice Live


R#4 - 7-1 W/ 4-3-6-2 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 7-3-6-2 Dutch Pass – 39% Profit Margin
Top choice $3.40 Early & Live – $34.30 QUIN & $232.60 TRI

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-2 W/ 3-5-6-7 – Watch Live tote #9
Live Tote Results: 9-5-4-1 – Dutch Out 54% Profit Margin
Out Early & 6th (Watch) $50.10 choice Live


R#6 - 2-1 W/ 6-4-5-12– Watch Live tote #8 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 8/12-1-5 - Live Dutch Hit – 72% Margin
Out Early & 2nd (Watch) $7.10 choice Live – $12.80 QUIN & $80.00 & $38.40 TRI

[Nitro]

R#7 - 2-1 W/ 3-4-5-6 –
Live Tote Results: 7-1-10-9 - Dutch Out 151% Profit Margin
Out Early & Live -


R#8 - 1-3 W/ 5-2-11-6
Live Tote Results: 8-2-3-9 - Dutch Pass – 43% Margin
Out Early & Live –