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mostpost
02-13-2017, 12:13 PM
Atlantis Sports Book in Reno, Nevada has released its 2017 predictions for win totals by all the Major League teams.

AL EAST
Red Sox 90.5
Blue Jays 86.5
Orioles 84.5
Yankees 83.5
Rays 75.5

AL CENTRAL
Indians 92.5
Tigers 85.5
Royals 80.5
White Sox 73.5
Twins 70.5

AL WEST
Astros 87.5
Rangers 86.5
Mariners 85.5
Angels 76.5
Athletics 66.5

NL EAST
Nationals 90.5
Mets 89.5
Marlins 77.5
Phillies 72.5
Braves 71.5

NL CENTRAL
Cubs 95.5
Cardinals 87.5
Pirates 85.5
Reds 73.5
Brewers 72.5

NL WEST
Dodgers 91.5
Giants 87.5
Rockies 79.5
Diamondbacks 78.5
Padres 64.5


Comments? Opinions? Great Thoughts? A chance to make a killing? etc,

Valuist
02-13-2017, 03:15 PM
I will be in Reno in mid March. Teams I'm targeting:

Tigers Under 85.5. This is a team of aging stars kept together to give Mike Ilitsch one last shot at a World Series. Ilitch died the other day, so look for many of the key pieces to get sold off & a rebuilding job.

Texas Under 86.5. This team had great chemistry and an insane record in one run games last year. I've found that teams with one run records outside the norm don't regress/progress to the mean that year. Usually its the next year. I'm also more bullish on Houston, Seattle and I think the LAA can improve off last year's massive injury riddled season.

Marlins Under 77.5. Reportedly a sale in the works. That could mean a selloff. Their #1 starter the past few years, Jose Fernandez, died last September. They are considerably behind the top 2 teams in the division, and we could see a rebound from Harper, and less injuries to Mets staff.

I know you (like myself) are Cubs fans. I pegged their number right at 95 1/2. The team has been very fortunate with lack of missed starts/injuries to starting pitchers the past 2 years. Dexter Fowler going to StL hurts. Yes, Schwarber is back, but his best value is in the games vs AL teams, when he can't hurt you defensively. Wade Davis could be great, but there are questions on the soundness of his arm. The Cubs also draw the AL East as an interleague play partners, and that won't help. They still win the NL Central in ridden out fashion and are a solid threat to repeat, albeit with less regular season wins.

ReplayRandall
02-13-2017, 03:24 PM
I will be in Reno in mid March. Teams I'm targeting:

Tigers Under 85.5. This is a team of aging stars kept together to give Mike Ilitsch one last shot at a World Series. Ilitch died the other day, so look for many of the key pieces to get sold off & a rebuilding job.

Texas Under 86.5. This team had great chemistry and an insane record in one run games last year. I've found that teams with one run records outside the norm don't regress/progress to the mean that year. Usually its the next year. I'm also more bullish on Houston, Seattle and I think the LAA can improve off last year's massive injury riddled season.

Marlins Under 77.5. Reportedly a sale in the works. That could mean a selloff. Their #1 starter the past few years, Jose Fernandez, died last September. They are considerably behind the top 2 teams in the division, and we could see a rebound from Harper, and less injuries to Mets staff.

I know you (like myself) are Cubs fans. I pegged their number right at 95 1/2. The team has been very fortunate with lack of missed starts/injuries to starting pitchers the past 2 years. Dexter Fowler going to StL hurts. Yes, Schwarber is back, but his best value is in the games vs AL teams, when he can't hurt you defensively. Wade Davis could be great, but there are questions on the soundness of his arm. The Cubs also draw the AL East as an interleague play partners, and that won't help. They still win the NL Central in ridden out fashion and are a solid threat to repeat, albeit with less regular season wins.
I hope I don't "mush" us, but I've got the same exact picks..:eek:

Valuist
02-13-2017, 03:33 PM
I hope I don't "mush" us, but I've got the same exact picks..:eek:

:ThmbUp:

tophatmert
02-13-2017, 04:25 PM
Agree with Valuist on his selections. I might also consider Houston over and the White Sox under, got to think Frazier, Quintana, and Robertson will be gone by the deadline and there will be zero pressure to win now.

mostpost
02-13-2017, 06:58 PM
I know you (like myself) are Cubs fans. I pegged their number right at 95 1/2. The team has been very fortunate with lack of missed starts/injuries to starting pitchers the past 2 years. Dexter Fowler going to StL hurts. Yes, Schwarber is back, but his best value is in the games vs AL teams, when he can't hurt you defensively. Wade Davis could be great, but there are questions on the soundness of his arm. The Cubs also draw the AL East as an interleague play partners, and that won't help. They still win the NL Central in ridden out fashion and are a solid threat to repeat, albeit with less regular season wins.
1. Injuries to starting pitching. That is always a possibility, but let me ask you this. If you are handicapping a horse race, do you change your pick because you fear your horse MAY get injured? No, you stay with the horse you chose and hope for the best. Many pitchers go for years without injury. And many teams have a disastrous season injurywise; last year's Mets and the '85 Cubs come immediately to mind. I just do not believe that possible injuries are something that should be taken into account. More accurately, I don't think anyone should take the under on the Cubs based on possible injuries.

2. Dexter Fowler. Yes, that will be a loss. We really won't know how big of a loss until we see how Albert Almora develops. We do know that, although Fowler was a good fielder, Almora is considerably better.

3. Kyle Schwarber. Here is what the Cubs had in left field last year.
Ben Zobrist for 19 games.
Jorge Soler for 57 games.
Matt Szczur for 48 games.
Chris Coghlan for 24 games.

That is a total of 148 games. (Some of those were late inning defensive replacements, so let's stipulate that the above four played the majority of the game in left field 140 times.

I compared the stats of the 2016 Cubs left field by committee with the total 2015 stats of Kyle Schwarber. It is by no means a perfect comparison, but it gives us an idea.

In 140 games in 2016 the left field by committee scored 44 Runs.
In 69 games in 2016 KS scored 52 Runs

In 140 games in 2016 the LFC had 90 hits
in 69 games in 2015 KS had 57 hits.

2016 LFC had 60 RBI
2015 KS had 43 RBI.

KS had 16 Home Runs, 3 more than the LFC (in half as many games.

Comparative slash lines in the respective years.
Zobrist 272/386/446/831.
Soler 238/333/436/769
Szczur 258/312/400/712
Coghlan 252/391/388/779
Schwarber 246/355/487/842

Clearly Schwarber is a huge upgrade offensively over those four.

Defensively? Up to the time he was injured, KS had played in 47 Major League games in left field. He will improve and it's not like those guys are world beaters defensively.

So, if I were one who played those over/unders, I would definitely play the over. And if the number were ten wins higher, I would still play the over for the Cubs. That is how good I think this team will be.

barahona44
02-13-2017, 07:18 PM
If someone forced me to make a bet, I'd go under on the Indians.Great for baseball last year and they should win the division but methinks they'll fall just short of the win total

Jess Hawsen Arown
02-13-2017, 08:05 PM
Atlantis Sports Book in Reno, Nevada has released its 2017 predictions for win totals by all the Major League teams.

AL EAST
Red Sox 90.5
Blue Jays 86.5
Orioles 84.5
Yankees 83.5
Rays 75.5

AL CENTRAL
Indians 92.5
Tigers 85.5
Royals 80.5
White Sox 73.5
Twins 70.5

AL WEST
Astros 87.5
Rangers 86.5
Mariners 85.5
Angels 76.5
Athletics 66.5

NL EAST
Nationals 90.5
Mets 89.5
Marlins 77.5
Phillies 72.5
Braves 71.5

NL CENTRAL
Cubs 95.5
Cardinals 87.5
Pirates 85.5
Reds 73.5
Brewers 72.5

NL WEST
Dodgers 91.5
Giants 87.5
Rockies 79.5
Diamondbacks 78.5
Padres 64.5


Comments? Opinions? Great Thoughts? A chance to make a killing? etc,

Early picks -- subject to injuries in the WBC :(


Diamondbacks OVER
Indians OVER
Yankees UNDER

Valuist
02-13-2017, 09:21 PM
1. Injuries to starting pitching. That is always a possibility, but let me ask you this. If you are handicapping a horse race, do you change your pick because you fear your horse MAY get injured? No, you stay with the horse you chose and hope for the best. Many pitchers go for years without injury. And many teams have a disastrous season injurywise; last year's Mets and the '85 Cubs come immediately to mind. I just do not believe that possible injuries are something that should be taken into account. More accurately, I don't think anyone should take the under on the Cubs based on possible injuries.

2. Dexter Fowler. Yes, that will be a loss. We really won't know how big of a loss until we see how Albert Almora develops. We do know that, although Fowler was a good fielder, Almora is considerably better.

3. Kyle Schwarber. Here is what the Cubs had in left field last year.
Ben Zobrist for 19 games.
Jorge Soler for 57 games.
Matt Szczur for 48 games.
Chris Coghlan for 24 games.

That is a total of 148 games. (Some of those were late inning defensive replacements, so let's stipulate that the above four played the majority of the game in left field 140 times.

I compared the stats of the 2016 Cubs left field by committee with the total 2015 stats of Kyle Schwarber. It is by no means a perfect comparison, but it gives us an idea.

In 140 games in 2016 the left field by committee scored 44 Runs.
In 69 games in 2016 KS scored 52 Runs

In 140 games in 2016 the LFC had 90 hits
in 69 games in 2015 KS had 57 hits.

2016 LFC had 60 RBI
2015 KS had 43 RBI.

KS had 16 Home Runs, 3 more than the LFC (in half as many games.

Comparative slash lines in the respective years.
Zobrist 272/386/446/831.
Soler 238/333/436/769
Szczur 258/312/400/712
Coghlan 252/391/388/779
Schwarber 246/355/487/842

Clearly Schwarber is a huge upgrade offensively over those four.

Defensively? Up to the time he was injured, KS had played in 47 Major League games in left field. He will improve and it's not like those guys are world beaters defensively.

So, if I were one who played those over/unders, I would definitely play the over. And if the number were ten wins higher, I would still play the over for the Cubs. That is how good I think this team will be.

Your analogy of race handicapping and baseball is off. These are not individual game predictions. These are big picture, what is going to happen to a team during a season, predictions. Injuries are pretty random. They tend to even out over time. If a starting staff is basically injury free for two years, expecting that to even out should not be a surprise.

Let me turn the tables on your analogy; if you were to look at the racing world at the start of the year, would you expect all the top horses to make at least 10 starts? Of course not, because some will get hurt.

I don't question the fact Schwarber is a much better bat than Coglan, Sczcur (sp?) or Soler. He has more overall power than Zobrist, although how much overall better player than BZ is debateable.

But let's look around the division: Fowler goes from the Cubs to the Cardinals. Lance Lynn, a capable 15 game winner, is back after missing all last year. I don't think they overtake the Cubs, but I expect them to win more games than 2016.

The Pirates: Cole was pitching with arm problems last year before they shut him down. When healthy, he's ace quality. But what will be interesting is having the 2 big prospects: Glaznow and Taillon; both are big upgrades over the likes of Liriano and Niese. And McCutcheon is coming off his worst year and the team should benefit moving him away from CF. Brewers and Reds? They are rebuilding but I can see both winning a few more games than 2016.

Cubs still win division but it won't be the geared down 15 length win we saw last year.

mostpost
02-14-2017, 04:13 PM
Your analogy of race handicapping and baseball is off. These are not individual game predictions. These are big picture, what is going to happen to a team during a season, predictions. Injuries are pretty random. They tend to even out over time. If a starting staff is basically injury free for two years, expecting that to even out should not be a surprise.
13% of Major League players went on the disabled list in 2015. As you say, when and where those injuries happen is pretty random. There is no such thing as "Due." Because you have not been injured for two or three or ten years does not mean you are "Due" for and injury. Using that 13% figure, a player has one chance in 8 of going on the disabled list. That means he has seven chances in eight of not going on the disabled list. Personally, I will go with the seven in eight.

You also have to look at the individual. Combined, Jon Lester and John Lackey have pitched over 160 innings in 23 straight years-90% of those over 190.
And, no, they are not "Due."

Jake Arrietta has pitched over 150 innings every year he has been with the Cubs and his workout routine makes him a poor candidate for being injured.

By virtue of the way he pitches, Kyle Hendricks is unlikely to sustain any injuries connected to arm strain or overuse.

In any case, you are confusing what my analogy is about. It isn't about whether a player of a horse will be injured. It is about how we regard that possibility.

Because seven of eight players never go on the disabled list during a season, I choose to pretty much ignore the possibility.

ReplayRandall
02-14-2017, 04:30 PM
Since a possible average of 13% of Major League players go on the disabled list, it would appear that one everyday positional player would, at sometime, be on the disabled list. Two things come to mind when handicapping any team's long-term chances of overcoming key injuries:

1. How strong are the bench players compared to other teams in their (A) Division and (B) League

2. How strong are their farm clubs, especially when it comes to pitching staffs, for possible late season bolstering.....In the postseason, it always comes down to the strongest pitching staffs for ultimate chances of success.

Valuist
02-14-2017, 04:51 PM
13% of Major League players went on the disabled list in 2015. As you say, when and where those injuries happen is pretty random. There is no such thing as "Due." Because you have not been injured for two or three or ten years does not mean you are "Due" for and injury. Using that 13% figure, a player has one chance in 8 of going on the disabled list. That means he has seven chances in eight of not going on the disabled list. Personally, I will go with the seven in eight.

You also have to look at the individual. Combined, Jon Lester and John Lackey have pitched over 160 innings in 23 straight years-90% of those over 190.
And, no, they are not "Due."

Jake Arrietta has pitched over 150 innings every year he has been with the Cubs and his workout routine makes him a poor candidate for being injured.

By virtue of the way he pitches, Kyle Hendricks is unlikely to sustain any injuries connected to arm strain or overuse.

In any case, you are confusing what my analogy is about. It isn't about whether a player of a horse will be injured. It is about how we regard that possibility.

Because seven of eight players never go on the disabled list during a season, I choose to pretty much ignore the possibility.

Of the Cub starters, I would say Lackey and Arrieta are at highest risk. Arrieta may be in great shape. But the crossfire delivery he uses is great for creating deception, but it also places more torque on the shoulder and arm. No, I'm not "rooting" for him to get hurt. But I try to be objective.

As for Lackey, he's 38 so its more than a concern about an injury. How much longer can he be effective?

Lester and Hendricks both lower risk. I like the fact Hendricks can win without having to hit 98 on the radar gun and Lester is durable.

Montgomery has no track record pitching high innings. They may have an innings limit for him.

As I write this, I see the kid Reyes of the Cardinals blew out his elbow. He had a great arm, and I wasn't sure if they were going to use him as a 5th starter, closer, or setup man.

Mostie, I know you are old enough to remember the 1984 and 1985 Cub teams. The 1984 edition was the Sutcliffe/Trout/Rutheven/Sandberg/Matthews/Durham team. They weren't going to beat the Tigers that year but should've gotten past San Diego. So it would happen in 1985, right? Then most of the starting staff come up with arm injuries.

And tell the Angels about the 13% DL stat. Last year, they lost all five starters and their closer to injuries last year.

mostpost
02-14-2017, 05:28 PM
Of the Cub starters, I would say Lackey and Arrieta are at highest risk. Arrieta may be in great shape. But the crossfire delivery he uses is great for creating deception, but it also places more torque on the shoulder and arm. No, I'm not "rooting" for him to get hurt. But I try to be objective.

As for Lackey, he's 38 so its more than a concern about an injury. How much longer can he be effective?

Lester and Hendricks both lower risk. I like the fact Hendricks can win without having to hit 98 on the radar gun and Lester is durable.

Montgomery has no track record pitching high innings. They may have an innings limit for him.

As I write this, I see the kid Reyes of the Cardinals blew out his elbow. He had a great arm, and I wasn't sure if they were going to use him as a 5th starter, closer, or setup man.

Mostie, I know you are old enough to remember the 1984 and 1985 Cub teams. The 1984 edition was the Sutcliffe/Trout/Rutheven/Sandberg/Matthews/Durham team. They weren't going to beat the Tigers that year but should've gotten past San Diego. So it would happen in 1985, right? Then most of the starting staff come up with arm injuries.

And tell the Angels about the 13% DL stat. Last year, they lost all five starters and their closer to injuries last year.
Clearly I am going to have to delete my birthday from my profile. Otherwise I can't do my Jack Benny homage.

I know about the 1985 Cubs. I mentioned them in another post. Did not know about the Angels last year. But how often does that happen? Twice in 30 years?

A few reasons why I think the Cubs will be better this year than last. Yes, I do realize these all lie in the realm of potential.

Wilson Contreras will be the full time catcher. He is a huge upgrade over Montero and Ross offensively. He is a huge upgrade over Montero defensively and about on a par with Ross. He has quite a bit to learn about handling pitchers and framing pitches, but so did every young catcher coming into the league. Also, when he needs a little rest, he has played first base and left field.
Before he was a catcher he played third base in the minors.

Kris Bryant spent the off season learning to hit the ball to right field more. Did he succeed? Well, last off season (before the 2016 season) his goal was to lift the ball more and increase his home run totals. He increased them by 50%.

The most interesting off season endeavor by a Chicago Cub was Jason Heyward's attempt to breakdown and rebuild his swing. He actually bought a house in Arizona to be near the Cubs' training facility and work with the coaches on this endeavor. Recently, there have been several reports in Chicago media about how well that process has gone and how much of an improvement there has been.

We have already talked about Kyle Schwarber.

Then there is the overall youth of the team. These guys were very good last year, yet there is much room for improvement.

So, let's "Root, root, root for the Cubbies, if they don't win it's a shame," especially if they get beat by those stinkin' Mets.

Secondbest
02-14-2017, 05:51 PM
13% of Major League players went on the disabled list in 2015. As you say, when and where those injuries happen is pretty random. There is no such thing as "Due." Because you have not been injured for two or three or ten years does not mean you are "Due" for and injury. Using that 13% figure, a player has one chance in 8 of going on the disabled list. That means he has seven chances in eight of not going on the disabled list. Personally, I will go with the seven in eight.

You also have to look at the individual. Combined, Jon Lester and John Lackey have pitched over 160 innings in 23 straight years-90% of those over 190.
And, no, they are not "Due."

Jake Arrietta has pitched over 150 innings every year he has been with the Cubs and his workout routine makes him a poor candidate for being injured.

By virtue of the way he pitches, Kyle Hendricks is unlikely to sustain any injuries connected to arm strain or overuse.

In any case, you are confusing what my analogy is about. It isn't about whether a player of a horse will be injured. It is about how we regard that possibility.

Because seven of eight players never go on the disabled list during a season, I choose to pretty much ignore the possibility.
How many of those 13% were pitchers?

mostpost
02-14-2017, 06:07 PM
How many of those 13% were pitchers?
A lot. One source I saw said more than half.

Track Collector
02-14-2017, 08:25 PM
With my hometown bias, I would take the over on the Orioles. Buck Showalter usually gets the Orioles to over-achieve IMO.

With no real money on it, that was an easy pick! :p

magwell
02-15-2017, 09:38 AM
This is the first time since I've be here I agree with Mostpost on most of what he said, unbelievable.........:)

barahona44
02-15-2017, 09:58 AM
A lot. One source I saw said more than half.
That makes sense math-wise.Most teams carry 12 pitchers on a 25 man roster.But if an analysis was done, I'd bet that position players would have longer stays on the DL because their injuries tend to be more serious.Often pitchers are put on the DL because it is riskier to try and have them play through the pain.Also, a lot of pitchers, especially those lower in the pecking order devolp all kinds of 'maladies' when they're ineffective, warranting a trip to ye Olde disabled list.

1st time lasix
02-15-2017, 11:14 AM
[QUOTE=mostpost]Atlantis Sports Book in Reno, Nevada has released its 2017 predictions for win totals by all the Major League teams.

AL EAST
Red Sox 90.5
Blue Jays 86.5
Orioles 84.5
Yankees 83.5
Rays 75.5

AL CENTRAL
Indians 92.5
Tigers 85.5
Royals 80.5
White Sox 73.5
Twins 70.5

AL WEST
Astros 87.5
Rangers 86.5
Mariners 85.5
Angels 76.5
Athletics 66.5

NL EAST
Nationals 90.5
Mets 89.5
Marlins 77.5
Phillies 72.5
Braves 71.5

NL CENTRAL
Cubs 95.5
Cardinals 87.5
Pirates 85.5
Reds 73.5
Brewers 72.5

NL WEST
Dodgers 91.5
Giants 87.5
Rockies 79.5
Diamondbacks 78.5
Padres 64.5


Comments? Opinions? my two cents--- Al East- Yankees under and Rays over.....Al Central-Tigers under and Royals over...NL East-Marlins under and Phillies over. NL Central- Pirates over and Cards under. You reminded me---I have tickets from last year I have not sent in to cash! thx....

Valuist
02-15-2017, 11:40 AM
Getting back to Schwarber, I heard on MLB radio that he wants to catch again. I hope Theo will step in and tell him he's the 3rd string emergency catcher, and needs to spend the time working on his outfield play.

Not even thinking about defense, you don't want to put a guy coming off ACL surgery continuously in a crouch if you don't have to.

Secondbest
02-15-2017, 11:59 AM
That makes sense math-wise.Most teams carry 12 pitchers on a 25 man roster.But if an analysis was done, I'd bet that position players would have longer stays on the DL because their injuries tend to be more serious.Often pitchers are put on the DL because it is riskier to try and have them play through the pain.Also, a lot of pitchers, especially those lower in the pecking order devolp all kinds of 'maladies' when they're ineffective, warranting a trip to ye Olde disabled list.
Nowadays if a pitcher gets hurt they do Tommy John right away if there's any doubt about the injury.

Secondbest
02-15-2017, 12:37 PM
Nowadays if a pitcher gets hurt they do Tommy John right away if there's any doubt about the injury.
Cards pitcher Alex Reyes out for year. Tommy John.

Valuist
02-15-2017, 03:12 PM
That makes sense math-wise.Most teams carry 12 pitchers on a 25 man roster.But if an analysis was done, I'd bet that position players would have longer stays on the DL because their injuries tend to be more serious.Often pitchers are put on the DL because it is riskier to try and have them play through the pain.Also, a lot of pitchers, especially those lower in the pecking order devolp all kinds of 'maladies' when they're ineffective, warranting a trip to ye Olde disabled list.

True, and let's not forget the injuries where there is NO trip to the DL. If a guy tears a groin, he's on the DL for quite a while. A pulled groin? He's probably out a few days then tries to play thru it. There's many injuries that effect performance but aren't serious enough to warrant a minimum 15 day DL visit.

mostpost
02-15-2017, 03:35 PM
Getting back to Schwarber, I heard on MLB radio that he wants to catch again. I hope Theo will step in and tell him he's the 3rd string emergency catcher, and needs to spend the time working on his outfield play.

Not even thinking about defense, you don't want to put a guy coming off ACL surgery continuously in a crouch if you don't have to.
I mostly agree with that. Whatever is done, the first priority is to protect the leg.
If it is physically possible, I would like Schwarber to catch 10 to 12 games plus the occasional late inning when Montero is catching and is pinch hit or pinch run for.

For me, this is not so much about Schwarber being a catcher. Being continuously in a crouch has a debilitating effect even on healthy knees. For that reason, I would like to see Willson Contreras catch no more than 115 to 120 games. But I would like to see him in 145 to 150. He could do this by exchanging positions with Schwarber in some games, by platooning with KS in left field in some games, and by occasionally spelling Rizzo at first.

Valuist
02-15-2017, 04:59 PM
I mostly agree with that. Whatever is done, the first priority is to protect the leg.
If it is physically possible, I would like Schwarber to catch 10 to 12 games plus the occasional late inning when Montero is catching and is pinch hit or pinch run for.

For me, this is not so much about Schwarber being a catcher. Being continuously in a crouch has a debilitating effect even on healthy knees. For that reason, I would like to see Willson Contreras catch no more than 115 to 120 games. But I would like to see him in 145 to 150. He could do this by exchanging positions with Schwarber in some games, by platooning with KS in left field in some games, and by occasionally spelling Rizzo at first.

I think you will see Contreras catch around that 115-120 games you list, but no way will he get into 145 to 150. The Cubs have a lot of depth, and there's already multi-position guys like Zobrist, Baez and Bryant who need to be in the lineup before Contreras. And if Contreras is catching the 115-120 games, you want him to be fresh for those games.

Maybe St. Louis has more problems than I thought. Reyes out for the year now, and I heard a clip on Wacha that was not encouraging for St. Louis fans.

mostpost
02-16-2017, 05:49 PM
I think you will see Contreras catch around that 115-120 games you list, but no way will he get into 145 to 150. The Cubs have a lot of depth, and there's already multi-position guys like Zobrist, Baez and Bryant who need to be in the lineup before Contreras. And if Contreras is catching the 115-120 games, you want him to be fresh for those games.
Baez and Bryant can play a lot of positions and play them all well. That doesn't mean that is the best way to use them. Bryant should be the regular third baseman. Baez should be the regular second baseman. A Russell-Zobrist double play combo is quite good. A Russell-Baez combo is extraordinary.

Zobrist should be your super utility guy. Last year he had to play 147 games because of the injury to Schwarber and the fact that Baez did not seem to be ready. I would say that Zobrist should play in more than 110 games this year. There are plenty of opportunities for him when you want to give a day off to any of the infielders or outfielders.

Another thing I should point out is that I am not advocating that Contreras replace Schwarber in left while Schwarber in left while Schwarber sits on the bench. They are just exchanging positions. The Yankees did this a lot in the late 50s and 60s. Yogi Berra and Elston Howard shared the duties at catcher and in left field.

Valuist
02-16-2017, 08:48 PM
Baez and Bryant can play a lot of positions and play them all well. That doesn't mean that is the best way to use them. Bryant should be the regular third baseman. Baez should be the regular second baseman. A Russell-Zobrist double play combo is quite good. A Russell-Baez combo is extraordinary.

Zobrist should be your super utility guy. Last year he had to play 147 games because of the injury to Schwarber and the fact that Baez did not seem to be ready. I would say that Zobrist should play in more than 110 games this year. There are plenty of opportunities for him when you want to give a day off to any of the infielders or outfielders.

Another thing I should point out is that I am not advocating that Contreras replace Schwarber in left while Schwarber in left while Schwarber sits on the bench. They are just exchanging positions. The Yankees did this a lot in the late 50s and 60s. Yogi Berra and Elston Howard shared the duties at catcher and in left field.

Contreras is a decent player, but he is not remotely close to a Buster Posey or the early days Joe Mauer, where you will put them at another position on a day they don't catch. You want your catcher fresh. The most important thing for him is to learn the hitters in the league.

I agree Baez is their best 2B and you want Bryant at 3B, but I want to keep Zobrist ready. He's too valuable to rot on the bench.

But there are two questions that have to be answered: CF and RF. Almora is certainly ready defensively for CF. It remains to be seen how well he will hit. John Jay is a decent backup, but you don't want to have to rely on him for 140 games. And we know Heyward can handle RF very well but can he rebound to his pre-2016 form at the plate? Probably a good chance, but if he doesn't, have to think Zobrist gets some playing time in RF.

Jess Hawsen Arown
02-16-2017, 11:10 PM
Y'know 73.5 is a Pretty low number, but I don't think the Reds will even do that. I'm making The Reds my best bet for UNDER.

mostpost
02-16-2017, 11:16 PM
Contreras is a decent player, but he is not remotely close to a Buster Posey or the early days Joe Mauer, where you will put them at another position on a day they don't catch. You want your catcher fresh. The most important thing for him is to learn the hitters in the league.

I agree Baez is their best 2B and you want Bryant at 3B, but I want to keep Zobrist ready. He's too valuable to rot on the bench.

But there are two questions that have to be answered: CF and RF. Almora is certainly ready defensively for CF. It remains to be seen how well he will hit. John Jay is a decent backup, but you don't want to have to rely on him for 140 games. And we know Heyward can handle RF very well but can he rebound to his pre-2016 form at the plate? Probably a good chance, but if he doesn't, have to think Zobrist gets some playing time in RF.

I read a couple of articles today, detailing the work Heyward has been doing over the winter. The first one is
https://theathletic.com/38588/2017/02/15/batman-returns-cubs-jason-heyward-on-a-crusade-to-fix-his-swing/

You may not be able to access that one without a subscription so here are some highlights.
(After the World Series), Heyward took a brief respite from the game before moving to Arizona in December and starting work on his swing.

Cubs hitting coach John Mallee explained the goal this offseason was for Heyward to bring his swing back to what it was in 2012, when he hit a career-high 27 home runs and posted a 121 wRC+, his best offensive season outside of his rookie year.

“The hitting position that he got into,” Mallee said. “In ’12, he was in better position to strike the ball. In ’16 somehow that got away from him. And then he started rushing and hurrying. I think in ’12, if you see the position that he gets in, from the bat angle to his launch angle to the sequence of his swing to his ability to stay inside the ball are all in direct relation to the positioning he was getting into. So just getting into the position he got into when he was such a successful hitter all of these years.”

“When you get around some balls or your path is a little off sometimes, the ball doesn’t spin right off the bat,” Mallee said. “When it doesn’t spin right off the bat, it’s hard to project the exit velocity and proper launch angle that you’re looking for. So getting him on plane with the pitch, staying on plane with the pitch and creating true backspin like he did in ’12 and different parts of his career after that, so trying to get back to that path. The path created by the positioning was there when he was ready to swing and it just changed over the course of time.”

. Last season, especially by the end of the year, Heyward’s overall swing and mechanics were a mess. His head was rarely in the right position, he was already on his front side by the time he struck the ball and he was hitting with a wide, open, unbalanced base.

Another big issue from last season was Heyward’s tendency to roll over the ball, leading to all those grounders to the left side that became commonplace last season. One of the things that causes rollover is that Heyward is very dominant with his left hand.

(To correct that, Heyward has been doing a drill where he swings only with his left hand)

If you don't have a subscription to theathletic, I hope this gives you some idea what the article is about.


Two more links. I hope they work.
http://boysofspring.com/hey-hey-its-heyward-hitting-with-video/

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/12/jason-heyward-simplifies-swing/

wisconsin
02-17-2017, 11:38 AM
If they can avoid the injury bug, the Cubs could win 100 games each year for several more seasons. They have so much young talent that is still in it's raw form. I think people are underestimating what this team is really capable of.

mostpost
02-17-2017, 04:00 PM
If they can avoid the injury bug, the Cubs could win 100 games each year for several more seasons. They have so much young talent that is still in it's raw form. I think people are underestimating what this team is really capable of.
Not you and me. ;)

Valuist
02-18-2017, 09:55 PM
If they can avoid the injury bug, the Cubs could win 100 games each year for several more seasons. They have so much young talent that is still in it's raw form. I think people are underestimating what this team is really capable of.

I don't think anyone is underestimating them. They are still favored to win the 2017 World Series. And that is the main objective. Triple digit win totals are impressive, but there doesn't appear to be enough real strong competition in the NL Central to push the Cubs to have to win that many.

I'm sure if you would ask anyone in the Warriors organization if they could trade 3 regular season wins (and the all-time single season record) in exchange for last year's NBA title, they would. And this year they (the Warriors) will win less games, but barring significant injury, nobody has a chance to stop them. But the NBA is much more predictable than MLB.

Jess Hawsen Arown
02-19-2017, 11:52 AM
I'm sure if you would ask anyone in the Warriors organization if they could trade 3 regular season wins (and the all-time single season record) in exchange for last year's NBA title, they would. And this year they (the Warriors) will win less games, but barring significant injury, nobody has a chance to stop them. But the NBA is much more predictable than MLB.

The NBA has become obscene in its predictability.

Baseball has so many moving parts. Every year there are players coming out of nowhere to become stars. On the opposite side, who expected such terrible seasons by the likes of Harper, McCutchen and Greinke?

Valuist
02-20-2017, 01:15 PM
The NBA has become obscene in its predictability.

Baseball has so many moving parts. Every year there are players coming out of nowhere to become stars. On the opposite side, who expected such terrible seasons by the likes of Harper, McCutchen and Greinke?

True. There was some concern with Greinke moving from playing home games in Dodger Stadium to Chase Field, but it still was a surprise. I think the poor seasons for the other two were more shocking, especially Harper. I see the Pirates are moving McCutcheon from center to right, but sounds like he isn't happy about that.

Jess Hawsen Arown
02-22-2017, 10:44 PM
There was a baseball game, today. Ok, Ok, it was the D-Backs against Grand Canyon U, but it was a baseball game - with major leaguers. The D-back regulars played once through the lineup.

CincyHorseplayer
02-23-2017, 12:23 AM
My Redlegs do about 8-10 wins better than projected!

ElKabong
02-23-2017, 12:40 AM
Prediction. Darvish goes on the DL before August 15, rangers still win over 87 games. Daniels has been known to make smart , timely deals. Profar is a trade chip, but hoping we don't let go of Gallo. Trading Chris Davis was the worst trade ever this franchise made, no need to give away a similar talent. Esp in that ballpark with the short right field porch

Under... Tigers
Over ... Red Sox.

Probably have to revisit this thread and update before opening day

Jess Hawsen Arown
02-25-2017, 06:55 AM
My Redlegs do about 8-10 wins better than projected!

Love the optimism of the true fan, but I'm predicting an even worse season than predicted.

On the positive side, Billy Hamilton is showing signs of being a complete ballplayer and that kid, Peraza, had an amazing last two months.

I had Votto on my fantasy team last year, and then he remembered how great he was AFTER I got rid of him because I couldn't take it any more.:rant:

But that pitching? OO-FAH.

Valuist
02-26-2017, 01:38 PM
Speaking of the Reds, it went under the radar what kind of second half Joey Votto had last year. Here's his post All-Star break numbers:

.408 batting avg
.490 on base %
.668 slugging %
1.158 OPS

Because the Reds had such a horrific first half of the season, he was pretty much overlooked. Those numbers are Bonds PED ERA numbers; Ted Williams/Babe Ruth numbers.

HoofedInTheChest
03-02-2017, 12:36 PM
Boston Red Sox ace David Price is going to visit orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews after having an MRI on his ailing pitching elbow, according to several reports.

“We’re taking every precaution,” Farrell said. “We have a little history here with David, with what his progression through spring training has been. He’s battled this seemingly in every spring training. We will acknowledge that this one has a little more intensity to it.”