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sbcaris
02-10-2017, 09:48 AM
Interesting data: 8 of the 12 horses listed in Haskin's Derby Dozen have Buckpasser in the X position: Irish War Cry, McCracken, Mastery, Gunnervera, Classic Empire, No Dozing, American Anthem, and El Areeb.

As the years pass the above pattern has become more frequent among the best runners.

Buckpasser, like his maternal grandsire, War Admiral, is becoming a sought after influence in modern pedigrees.

PowerUpPaynter
02-16-2017, 08:20 AM
Wair just so i understand this again: The X passing position is either Buckpasser thru a full female line like mastery or thru buckpasser to female to male to female... so that there is not 2 males in a row like classic empire and irish war cry? and if im correct its becuase if it was to go thru 2 males in a row it would be deluted so to say? As in the male passes 100% of the chromosome to a female but only 50% to a male and the female always passes 100%?

sbcaris
02-16-2017, 08:44 AM
PowerupPaynter: Classic Empire, like any male horse, can only get his X chromosome from his dam.

Classic Empire only has one road to Buckpasser's X and that is by way of his second damsire, Miswaki. Miswaki got part of Buckpassers X from his dam, Hopespringseternal who is Buckpassers daughter.

Miswaki passes on part of Buckpassers X to his daughter, In her Glory who in turn transmits part of that X to her daughter, Sambuca Classica who in turn passes part of that X to Classic Empire.

BIG49010
02-16-2017, 01:00 PM
http://www.pedigreequery.com/uncontested3

Uncontested has Buckpasser on the dam's side, just wondering would it have to be reversed to qualify?

sbcaris
02-16-2017, 06:26 PM
Big49010: Uncontested does not get an X with a line to Buckpasser because a sire always sends his Y chromosome to a son. In this pedigree Buckpasser transmits a Y chromosome to his son, Norcliffe, who in turn transmits this Y chromosome to his son, At The Threshold, who in turn transmits this Y chromosome to his son, Lil E Tee. Lil E Tee transmits his X to his daughter, Galileo star.

Therefore, Uncontested does NOT have Buckpasser in the X passing position.

PowerUpPaynter
02-16-2017, 08:30 PM
a male horse would pass his X to a daughter tho correct? then that daughter could pass the X to a male or female. So essentially between Buckpasser and the end horse as long as there is not 2 males in a row in the buckpasser line the x is transferred?

BIG49010
02-16-2017, 09:27 PM
Thank you for the explanation.

I know many old timer's look for 3 crosses of Buckpasser on a page, when looking at stallion prospects to breed to, but I'm not sure if they look at X and Y, but I will be asking when I speak to one of them again.

PowerUpPaynter
02-16-2017, 10:09 PM
If i understand this correctly the following derby winners of the 2000s have buckpasser in the X

Nyquist
California Chrome (twice)
Super Saver (twice)
Funny Cide



and if im correct with my interpretation of the X passing postion I wonder how many derby starters meet that criteria

sbcaris
02-17-2017, 01:31 PM
You missed Derby winner Orb in 2013. He also has Buckpasser in the X by way of his broodmare sire, Unbridled.

The percentage of starters with Buckpasser in the X is around 35-40%. By itself, Buckpasser in the X is not a good angle but if you add a fast final 3/8 in a 9 furlong prep race it becomes a very lucrative statistic.

PowerUpPaynter
02-17-2017, 01:43 PM
have you come across years where no derby starter has buckpasser in the X and the final fraction rule?

sbcaris
02-17-2017, 11:42 PM
PowerupPaynter: Yes, there were no qualifiers on my Buckpasser angle plus final fraction time in the following years for the Ky Derby:

2015, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2001, 2002, 1997, 1994, 1992,and 1991.

There were qualifiers in 20 of the years from 1988 to 2016. 7 of those 20 years a qualifier won the roses and 8 qualifiers finished second, one qualifier finished third. A fantastic number of in the money finishers ---16 of the 30 qualifiers hit the board. 53% of those that qualified finished in the money.

PowerUpPaynter
02-18-2017, 08:06 AM
PowerupPaynter: Yes, there were no qualifiers on my Buckpasser angle plus final fraction time in the following years for the Ky Derby:

2015, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2001, 2002, 1997, 1994, 1992,and 1991.

There were qualifiers in 20 of the years from 1988 to 2016. 7 of those 20 years a qualifier won the roses and 8 qualifiers finished second, one qualifier finished third. A fantastic number of in the money finishers ---16 of the 30 qualifiers hit the board. 53% of those that qualified finished in the money.

wow thats pretty amazing. Wonder how more people have not picked this angle up. Iv been following the Triple Crown since 2003 and you are the only guy that I learned this from. - on a side note do you think Buckpasser is as successful as he is because he carries the X from War Admiral AND Blue Larkspur. It would be interesting to see what the performance of other horses are in the derby that carry 2 of the 4 large heart families in the X.

PowerUpPaynter
02-18-2017, 08:22 AM
and to follow up on my last post - Although American Pharoah did not have Buckpasser in the X he did have Blue Larkspur and War Admiral in the X. Blue Larksput via Heliolight and War Admiral via Grenfall

PowerUpPaynter
02-18-2017, 09:29 AM
sorry about the repeated post, but now that i understand this X thing, I just went back and went thru the derby winners of the 2000's to see which of the four 'large heart genes' they trace back to and found that Big Brown and Giacomo are the only 2 that dont trace to any. Can anyone fact check me on that. Im pretty sure I dug pretty deep.

I added that info to my spreadsheet if you drag all the way to the right:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14meVH3tXTu6Lb9pgiiP8ouylmSFpsktVWVUNd2eQyzs/edit#gid=0

sbcaris
02-18-2017, 12:06 PM
PowerupPaynter: You were correct about Giacomo but regarding Big Brown you were incorrect. Big Brown has both War Admiral and Blue Larkspur in the X passing position. WA by way of Lear Fan and Blue Larkspur by way of Damascus.

Regarding the use of the above 4 as a handicapping factor for the Ky Derby----In my opinion the above stallions in the X passing position by themeselves have little or no impact because the majority of horses in the Derby trace to one or more of them in the X. Around 85% of the Ky Derby entrants have an X by way of at least one of the above 4 stallions and 85% of the winners also carry an X from at least one of the above 4 stallions. The impact value is 1.00 which means the stat carries no clout at all(85% starters divided by 85% winners). These types are not winning more than their expected share of Derbies.

Similarly, my Buckpasser factor is NO good if used by itself. Many horses with Buckpasser in the X can't win a race no less a stake race. Adding the FAST FINAL FURLONG in a 9 furlong major prep improves this factor tremendously in all three legs of the Triple Crown..

Here is a very interesting point concerning the above: Did you know that one of the greatest broodmare sires of all time, Buckpasser, got approximately 10% stakes winners from his daughters foals. That means that 90% of all horses that were produced by Buckpasser's daughters never won a stake race.

Raider
02-18-2017, 06:34 PM
That's what I like about your work. The performance angle by itself narrows the number of horses your looking at to make your betting decision. I looked at that last year, and close to half of the horses in the fields(97-15) met that standard. (Not in all years, and since I didn't run a spreadsheet on that stat, would have to go back into it )When you factor in buckpasser, that number drops.

The other half of it is how many met the perfromance standard, and didn't get ITM.

sbcaris
02-18-2017, 06:59 PM
Raider: Which performance standard are referring to? Buck in X plus final fraction or some other standard?

Raider
02-18-2017, 07:50 PM
Raider: Which performance standard are referring to? Buck in X plus final fraction or some other standard?
the final fraction first, then buckpasser xp that met that standard. I have to find my KYD binder. I think that one year, only three horses met the final fraction standard. It was easier to look at the old forms than look for buckpasser xp

I am doing that now, but only for the points system.

good ideas and bad ideas cost the same, nothing. ;)

sbcaris
02-19-2017, 08:52 AM
Raider: My final fraction angle for the Derby is as follows: If a horse goes 37 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race they comprise around 66% winners from around 30 percent of the starters in the Derby. One can expect an average of about 6 horses to qualify on this factor each year.

Buckpasser in the X by itself is not a good angle. I checked it out a few years ago and it was not strong. However, when combined with the fast final fraction indicator it becomes powerful. Buckpasser in the X plus a fast final 3 furlongs of a major prep at 9 furlongs is a very lucrative method for the Ky Derby.

PowerUpPaynter
02-19-2017, 11:55 AM
So here is what I noticed. Of the 5 derby winners of the 2000's with Buckpasser in the X. (Nyquist, California Chrome, Orb, Super Saver, Funny Cide) only Super Saver did not qualify on the fast closing fractions. (I had him at 38 flat, please correct me if im wrong). However, knowing that Buckpasser passes the War Admiral and Blue Larkspur large heart gene. If you look for War Admiral and Blur Larkspur you can add American Pharoah, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, War Emblem. All of which qualify except for Big Brown who again I had at 38 flat.

sbcaris
02-19-2017, 01:22 PM
Yes, you are correct in stating that Super Saver and Big Brown do not qualify on the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less because they did their last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep in 38 flat.

Regarding War Admiral and Blue Larkspur. I really have not found any stat that is solid regarding the use of these two in the X passing position. Over the last 10 years there is a very high percentage of horses in the Triple Crown events that carry the above two stallions in the X position. So having a good percentage of winners carrying these two stallions is nothing to get excited over. If 80% of the starters carry WA or BL in the X passing position one would expect 80% of the winners to also carry either one of theme in the X. So that angle by itself carries no clout.

turninforhome10
02-19-2017, 02:34 PM
Yes, you are correct in stating that Super Saver and Big Brown do not qualify on the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less because they did their last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep in 38 flat.

Regarding War Admiral and Blue Larkspur. I really have not found any stat that is solid regarding the use of these two in the X passing position. Over the last 10 years there is a very high percentage of horses in the Triple Crown events that carry the above two stallions in the X position. So having a good percentage of winners carrying these two stallions is nothing to get excited over. If 80% of the starters carry WA or BL in the X passing position one would expect 80% of the winners to also carry either one of theme in the X. So that angle by itself carries no clout.
Would like to know where you get 80%?

sbcaris
02-19-2017, 02:58 PM
Turningforhome: In 2016 there were 20 entries in the Derby and 17 of them had War Admiral or Blue Larkspur in the X passing position. The only three that did not carry WA or BL in the X were Exaggerator, Creator, and Destin. That's 85% of the entries carrying either of the above stallions or both in the X position for last year. I am sure the percentage is high if you were to analyze each of the preceding years. I know that using the above method by ITSELF does not carry clout. Perhaps doing some research by combining the above with some other factor like a fast finish or high Beyer figs etc may prove fruitful.

turninforhome10
02-19-2017, 03:19 PM
Turningforhome: In 2016 there were 20 entries in the Derby and 17 of them had War Admiral or Blue Larkspur in the X passing position. The only three that did not carry WA or BL in the X were Exaggerator, Creator, and Destin. That's 85% of the entries carrying either of the above stallions or both in the X position for last year. I am sure the percentage is high if you were to analyze each of the preceding years. I know that using the above method by ITSELF does not carry clout. Perhaps doing some research by combining the above with some other factor like a fast finish or high Beyer figs etc may prove fruitful.
X passing position, not tail female.

sbcaris
02-19-2017, 07:19 PM
There were 24 posts in this thread and not one mention of tail female. Evidently you are confusing this thread with another one in which the tail female line was discussed.

PowerUpPaynter
04-02-2017, 09:04 PM
anyone know how many starters in the derby this century had Buckpasser in the X? I found there are 12 that have had a top 4 finish.

sbcaris
04-02-2017, 10:10 PM
PowerUPPaynter: My stat on the Derby is a combination factor as follows: Buckpasser in the X plus a fast final 3/8 (37 4/5 or less or a fast final 1/8 in 12 4/5 or less and last start no worse than fourth and the horse did not lose 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep race in its last start..

Since 1978 there have been 30 Derby runners that qualified on the above and there were 7 Winners, 8 place finishers and 1 show finisher. That makes it 16 that finished in the money (first, second or third) from only 30 starters which is slightly greater than 50% in the money. The above stat is really fantastic and my book Analyzing The Triple Crown which can be ordered from American Turf Monthly contains many stats just like the above for all three jewels-- Derby, Preakness and Belmont stakes.

f2tornado
04-02-2017, 10:17 PM
...my book Analyzing The Triple Crown which can be ordered from American Turf Monthly contains many stats just like the above for all three jewels-- Derby, Preakness and Belmont stakes.

I have the 2013 version and can say it's a worthy read. The tip sheet it came with was good that year too. Has it been updated much since?

sbcaris
04-03-2017, 08:52 AM
f2Tornado: I updated all the impact values last year.

Vinman
04-03-2017, 11:39 AM
Yes, you are correct in stating that Super Saver and Big Brown do not qualify on the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less because they did their last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep in 38 flat.

Regarding War Admiral and Blue Larkspur. I really have not found any stat that is solid regarding the use of these two in the X passing position. Over the last 10 years there is a very high percentage of horses in the Triple Crown events that carry the above two stallions in the X position. So having a good percentage of winners carrying these two stallions is nothing to get excited over. If 80% of the starters carry WA or BL in the X passing position one would expect 80% of the winners to also carry either one of theme in the X. So that angle by itself carries no clout.

Stan, if you were to use 38 flat for the final 3 furlongs instead of 37 4/5, enabling you to include Big Brown and Super Saver, how would this affect the impact value of the factor?

Vinman

sbcaris
04-03-2017, 06:11 PM
Vinman: In order to determine the impact value for those that achieve 38 or less in a big 5 prep race we have to look over all entries in all Derbies back to 1973 to find out the percentage of starters that qualified by racing the last 3/8 in 38 flat or less. I am not going to do that research but I would guess that the difference would NOT be worthwhile because you only add 3 winners in the last 45 years and the percent of starters that qualify probably goes up enough to prevent the impact value from ascending much.

PowerUpPaynter
04-03-2017, 08:24 PM
here is that data back to 2000:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14meVH3tXTu6Lb9pgiiP8ouylmSFpsktVWVUNd2eQyzs/edit?usp=sharing

Parson
04-10-2017, 07:01 PM
Dosent Irap have the x from Buckpasser?

f2tornado
04-10-2017, 07:39 PM
Dosent Irap have the x from Buckpasser?


Yes, and via the tail female line. His final 3/8 came up a little short for this angle and the Derby likely offers more pace.