View Full Version : HONG KONG / SHA TIN -SUN 2/5
Nitro
02-04-2017, 09:06 PM
Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields in ALL 10 races with 8 on the Turf.
Post Time Race #1 12:00 AM SUN. EST
TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
Theres also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#
For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action its available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true
I wont be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections based on a static tote analysis will follow.
Nitro
02-04-2017, 10:28 PM
As usual, Ive taken a look at the M/Ls and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #5 - #8 - #10
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher than 50%.
R#1 - 1400M (7F) T
.......4-5 W/ 7-11-1-3 ...........12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #6 Watch Live tote activity)
R#2 - 1000M (5F) T
........4-3 W/ 11-1-8-10
..12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 Watch Live tote activity)
R#3 - 1200M (6F) D..........5-3 W/ 7-8-4-6...............1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 Watch Live tote activity)
R#4 - 1400M (6F) T.........2-5 W/ 8-6-4-10
...
...1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & 1 Watch Live tote activity)
R#5 - 1800M (9F) T
.......4-6 W/ 1-2-5-8................2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #13 Watch Live tote activity).
R#6 - 1400M (7F) T
.......3-1 W/ 6-8-4-9
..
..2:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 Watch Live tote activity)
R#7 - 1800M (9F) T...........1-2 W/ 4-6-8................3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & #5 Watch Live tote activity)
R#8 - 1400M (7F) T.
.......8-3 W/ 2-1-5-6
.3:35 AM EST
R#9 - 1200M (6F) D.
.......2-1 W/ 3-6-5-9
.
...4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #10 Watch Live tote activity)
R#10 - 1200M (6F) T.
.....1-5 W/ 9-7-8-4
.
....4:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #2 Watch Live tote activity)
Good Luck today if youre playing!
Nitro
02-04-2017, 11:06 PM
1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)
2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value its sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F
. B w/C-D-E-F
.C w/D-E-F
.D w/E-F
..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)
Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.
3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others itll be 80 Bets, but theres potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
Its in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.
Nitro
02-04-2017, 11:22 PM
And Dont Forget!
If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)
Lemon Drop Husker
02-05-2017, 12:01 AM
I think the :3: looks good, but not good enough.
Nitro
02-05-2017, 12:18 AM
R#1 - 4-5 W/ 7-11-1-3 // #8 & 6 Live tote Watch
Live Tote Results: 6-1-13-5/10 Dutch 133% Out
Out Early -5th (Watch) choice $23.90 Live $80.70 QUIN w/2nd choice #1 lots of Live action
Lemon Drop Husker
02-05-2017, 12:29 AM
Dammit, I like the :3: again.
Lemon Drop Husker
02-05-2017, 12:35 AM
Dammit, I like the :3: again.
:11: looked good
AltonKelsey
02-05-2017, 12:41 AM
3 looked 1/5 in the parade.
ran like it
shame i cant get an HD live feed
Lemon Drop Husker
02-05-2017, 12:46 AM
3 looked 1/5 in the parade.
ran like it
shame i cant get an HD live feed
TVG is really pissing me off now
Nitro
02-05-2017, 12:47 AM
R#2 - 4-3 W/ 11-1-8-10 // #6 Live tote Watch
Live Tote Results: 3-6-8-1 Dutch 39% Pass
2nd choice $7.00 Early & Live $35.00 QUIN / $428.40 TRI w/6th (Watch) choice
The Early betting action has been on target so far!
AltonKelsey
02-05-2017, 12:49 AM
huh? the 1st winner wasn't mentioned early. nope.
thought the top 5 were early betting, and other two based on late action not early.
Nitro
02-05-2017, 12:50 AM
TVG is really pissing me off now
Theres also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
I patch the DRF feed right to my big TV. It may not be HD but it looks great!
AltonKelsey
02-05-2017, 12:52 AM
thats what im using, its low rez on my 40" 4k tv
hk has a nice hd service, but not for free. u need an account
Lemon Drop Husker
02-05-2017, 12:53 AM
Theres also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
I patch the DRF feed right to my big TV. It may not be HD but it looks great!
Ha. Nitro delivers. :ThmbUp:
Lemon Drop Husker
02-05-2017, 01:01 AM
I have the :4:
Nitro
02-05-2017, 01:19 AM
R#3 - 5-3 W/ 7-8-4-6
Live Tote Results: 7-2/8-9 - Dutch 120% Profit Margin
3rd choice $9.50 Early & 2nd choice Live $10.70 QUIN A DH for 2nd killed the Quin
Nitro
02-05-2017, 01:46 AM
R#4 - 2-5 W/ 8-6-4-10
Live Tote Results: 2-8-12-5 - Dutch 82% Profit Margin
Top choice $7.30 Early & Live $23.70 QUIN
Nitro
02-05-2017, 02:21 AM
R#5 - 4-6 W/ 1-2-5-8 // #7 & #13 Live tote Watch - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 13-6-4-2 - Dutch 114% Profit Margin
Out Early & Top (Watch) $7.70 choice $ Live $29.50 QUIN / $479.80 TRI - Fav. Winner #13 took all the Early action!
Nitro
02-05-2017, 02:23 AM
Purse Value: (in U.S. $)
Race #1 - $126,000
Race #2 - $168,000
Race #3 - $168,000
Race #4 - $168,000
Race #5 - $247,000
Nitro
02-05-2017, 02:50 AM
R#6 - 3-1 W/ 6-8-4-9
Live Tote Results: 13-3-1-6 - Dutch 25% Pass
Out Early & Live- Some very late action on the LS Winner :eek:
lamboguy
02-05-2017, 03:10 AM
Purse Value: (in U.S. $)
Race #1 - $126,000
Race #2 - $168,000
Race #3 - $168,000
Race #4 - $168,000
Race #5 - $247,000that is very short money for their handle.
vet bills are almost non-existent there as well, not sure what training bills are there, but sure they don't rob the owners that bad like in other places.
Nitro
02-05-2017, 03:25 AM
R#7 - 1-2 W/ 4-6-8 -
Live Tote Results: 9-6-5-7 - Dutch 83% Out
Out Early & Live -
Nitro
02-05-2017, 03:31 AM
that is very short money for their handle.
vet bills are almost non-existent there as well, not sure what training bills are there, but sure they don't rob the owners that bad like in other places.
Absolutely!
Purse Value
......
Total Handle per Race : (in U.S. $)
Race #1 - $126,000
.$ 29,082,667
Race #2 - $168,000
.$ 26,374,041
Race #3 - $168,000
.$ 27,190,726
Race #4 - $168,000
.$ 33,913,096
Race #5 - $247,000
.$ 36,852,819
Yes, that's Pool total in Millions/Race!
Nitro
02-05-2017, 03:54 AM
R#8 - 8-3 W/ 2-1-5-6
Live Tote Results: 5-3-7-6 - Dutch 7% Pass
5th choice Early & 2nd choice $6.40 Live $7.90 QUIN Winner got solid action
Nitro
02-05-2017, 04:32 AM
R#9 - 2-1 W/ 3-6-5-9
Live Tote Results: 1-6-12-5 - Dutch 284% Profit Margin
2nd choice $26.50 Early & Live $21.00 QUIN
Nitro
02-05-2017, 05:11 AM
R#10 - 1-5 W/ 9-7-8-4 // #10 & #2Live tote Watch - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 10-8-1-7 - Dutch 77% Profit Margin
Out Early & 3rd (Watch) choice $21.10 Live & $52.60 QUIN / $542.80 TRI
Winner #10 Got good Early action & #9 @ 107/1 was dead on the board easy swap!
Nitro
02-05-2017, 05:19 AM
Purse Value
Total Handle per Race : (in U.S. $)
Race #1 - $126,000
....
.$29,082,667
Race #2 - $168,000
....
.$26,374,041
Race #3 - $168,000
....
.$27,190,726
Race #4 - $168,000
....
.$33,913,096
Race #5 - $247,000
....
.$36,852,819
Race #6 - $168,000
....
.$34,934,712
Race #7 - $600,000
....
.$25,819,576
Race #8 - $350,000
....
.$36,459,143
Race #9 - $247,000
....
.$37,761,257
Race #10 -$247,000
.
....
..$39,072,708
Total Handle All Races
..$327,451,749 :eek:
AltonKelsey
02-05-2017, 01:03 PM
Another amazing day of Tote
The Legend Continues
Alwaysonpoint36
02-07-2017, 09:31 AM
Another amazing day of Tote
The Legend Continues
:lol: :lol: #alternativebets :D
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