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turninforhome10
02-04-2017, 08:10 AM
It has been 8 years since I have really decided to get down with Triple Crown Trail. The past 8 years have been great, American Pharaoh, California Chrome, etc...But, breaking down each prep, trying to read a trainers mind, reading the horse going forward, has proved elusive due to time constraints in my other life. Well this year, I have the time and a brother who wants to get involved with the future books, so here goes..
My first real look at the 3 yo's of 2017 came yesterday with the announcement by the Jockey Club of the Experimental Free Handicap for 2017 http://www.jockeyclub.com/pdfs/xper16c.pdf

This weekend heralds the return of the highweight at 126, Classic Empire in the Lambholm South Holly Bull.
I will post this analysis to start the discussion
GULFSTREAM PARK 02-04-2017 RACE 12 OF 12 - TRACK RATING: 86
8.5f DIRT 3YO $35OK GUAR NONGRADED STAKE/HANDICAP PURSE: $350000
RACE RATINGS: PRE 74

My software Analysis
I]I use a custom software that boils 96 factors down to 3 ML, BBet 1 and Pre,these are factors tuned to put the best horse on top. This is not a predictor of the win it is more of an idea of where the money should be going and looks for underlays. The others are
DLR=Days since last race
OLR= Odds last race[/I]
PGM Name DLR *ML *BBet1 *Pre OLR SCORE
3 CLASSIC EMPIRE *91.00 *58.23 54.08 *54.76 4.50 4.43
6 FACT FINDING 56.00 58.18 *55.87 52.02 *1.60 4.39
1 GUNNEVERA 77.00 57.79 52.62 54.21 2.90 4.46
4 TALK LOGISTICS 28.00 56.14 49.69 52.29 7.20 4.71
7 SHAMSAAN 56.00 48.96 43.56 49.32 2.90 5.02
8 CAVIL 28.00 44.52 43.92 43.04 2.60 5.28
5 IRISH WAR CRY 85.00 43.55 40.23 40.08 8.40 5.60
9 FIRE FOR EFFECT 28.00 36.27 38.68 39.52 4.70 5.75
2 PERRO ROJO 28.00 33.86 35.61 39.77 62.80 7.19
Lets look at :3: Classic Empire
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/classic+empire)
Without getting into huge details about large hearts (you can read about my theories in my 2009 thread) 2009 Thread (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=91344) , I love this horse. You have a pedigree that is full of big time donors. I love Alanesian as a family line and this guy gets the check mark for quality. We have Blue Larkspur to Princequillo to Hoist the Flag. All three are donors. We have an undefeated animal, who has yet to be really challenged.
He is in good hands,BUT, does he have to win? I find the we get the real speed types like GP in the spring. Is there someone who can go to the front and improve their position?
It would have to be the 2nd pick :6: Fact Finding
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/fact+finding2)
Wow, Miswaki, Buckpasser and back to the best of all La Troienne. This could be any kind of horse.Who has he beat? No one. He is really good right now. Stonestreet and Magnier +TAT at 523k is really interesting.
Now at this point I would like to say that looking forward, I want the same jock going forward from here, so a deal on a nice animal going forward is what I am looking for. A jock who get's the horse he is riding and make them run their best. A pairing. So let's look for that in further analysis
What is Castellano doing?
:1: Gunnevera (http://www.pedigreequery.com/gunnevera)
Like the pedigree to be more precocious and that is him. His deep close in the Jackpot is deceiving as he slowed down to close. Like him shorter distances and outside post. No play
:4: TALK LOGISTICS
http://www.pedigreequery.com/talk+logistics
True FLA pedigree. (For a little research, go back to 5th dam Hail Proudly and see if you can find the inbreeding that makes her such a producer. Hint. large heart carrier). I can not really see a big improvement going forward here. He looks to get a stuck inside rail trip off the speed, but does not show ability to get the distance. He dodges Sonic Mule to try two turns. Pass. Look for him in FLA breds later. Pass
:7: SHAMSAAN
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/ensejaam2)
Pedigree looks grassy to me and horse shows no early speed which I believe is crucial in the early preps at GP. His close in the slop at Bel to break his maiden was impressive on paper but a 48.67 fps for the run down the lane is not that solid. Not today at least for the top 3. Belmont grass later.
:8: CAVIL
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/cavil3)
Love everything about this pedigree for a classic horse. Starting way back..
Tail female line of the great Frizette who established her own branch of family 13-c. And best yet it through one of the greatest broodmares who carries the great Bull Lea\Blue Larkspur cross and that is Myrtlewood. http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/BlueLarkspur.html#Myrtlewood
But alas, he is a gelding. I feel he can work out a better trip today being outside and feel he can go a little further than indicated by last.
:5: IRISH WAR CRY
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/irish+war+cry)
I am biased towards Polish Numbers as a broodmare sire as Numbered Account is one of my favorite Classic lines. Homebred for NJ breeder and she has owned this line since Irish Trip in 1971. Feel this might be a very nice animal for Motion but Rosario is gonna have to get this guy to relax early. Shows 2 nice works going forward from a win that had him rank early. Can his rankness be bottled up for 2 turns with the speed being outside? Gets Lasix first today and feel this is his day with relaxed early outside the :6: and stays within 3 to 4 lengths of the leader with a big closing kick after nice prep. Major player for upset.
:9: FIRE FOR EFFECT
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/fire+for+effect2)
Screams grass and feel the slop win was more indicative of how he would play on the weeds rather than a two turn fast dirt race. He is fit and has 2 works and could fill lower exotics but not in the Holy Bull from the 9 hole. Pass and watch for weeds later.
:2: PERRO ROJO
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/perro+rojo)
Scratches head? Horse does not appear to belong up in the bigs anymore, but Zito fills the race. Respectable connections but a Delaware maiden win does not make for a backstory here. Pass
Analysis
I like for the win
:3: :5: :6: Class, connections, fitness covered.
To run their race and move forward.
:3: :5: :6: :8:
Predicted underlays
:1: :3: :4: :6: If Classic Empire dominates and runs huge think about who needs points to move forward the most and who will wrap up and save for FLA Derby. Conversely, If Classic Empire is not called upon, a fit horse with a race over the track would be best served as victor to the guessing public.
Predicted overlays
:5: :8: The Lrl invader is dangerous and hungry and Lezcano can work a better trip than last to have something left in the lane.


Will post the Withers and Robert B Lewis in a new post later this am.
Thanks for reading and discussion is welcome.

Lemon Drop Husker
02-04-2017, 10:07 AM
Great stuff. Thank you.

I'm an early fan of Irish War Cry on the Triple Crown Trail. He is my horse to watch. At least for now. :lol:

Big day for him as he tries 2 turns for the first time, gets Lasix for the first time, and takes on what is easily the toughest field he has faced to date.

This race, for me, really starts the race to the Derby. Let the games begin!:ThmbUp:

turninforhome10
02-04-2017, 11:24 AM
The WithersStakes
AQUEDUCT 02-04-2017 RACE 8 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 88
8.5f INR DIRT 3YO WGR:EX TRI SUPER DOUBLE WGRS
NONGRADED STAKE/HANDICAP PURSE: $250000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 80
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING Kirk Bet):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
4 EL AREEB 1.2 MCCARTHY T. LYNCH C. A.
2 APARTFROMTHECROWD 5.0 ORTIZ JR. I. BROWN C. C.
6 FILLET OF SOLE 10.0 MARAGH R. PLETCHER T. A.
10 J BOYS ECHO 4.0 ALBARADO R. ROMANS D. L.
5 BONUS POINTS 12.0 FRANCO M. PLETCHER T. A.
1 TRUE TIMBER 8.0 CARMOUCHE K. MCLAUGHLIN K. P.
9 SQUARE SHOOTER 12.0 PENNINGTON F. LERMAN M.
7 ALWAYS A SUSPECT 20.0 GALLARDO A. A. MCLAUGHLIN K. P.
8 SMALL BEAR 30.0 DAVIS D. SCIACCA G.
3 JAIMES ANGEL 50.0 GARCIA A. METIVIER R.

Looking at heavy favorite in the Lynch trained
:4: EL AREEB
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/el+areeb)
Like the 4x3 Mr Prospector and 5x5 Buckpasser inbreedings. Showed an infinity for a muddy two turn inner dirt with a crushing win last out. Thinking forward on this guy, easy win today and disappointing effort as the co fav in the Wood as he is an inner dirt type. He goes off 3/5 and wins for fun, which leaves who is running for the points.
The Pletcher horses
:5: BONUS POINTS
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/bonus+points2)
Looks for a paycheck but the horses get better each time and his form looks to fall off today. Pass
:6: FILET OF SOLE
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/fillet+of+sole)
Needed Parx off the trainer change, on the slim chance that this one might have been a slow learner, Rajiv is hungry and this guy posses a perfect Mr Prospector\Nijinsky II cross through sire and dam. Should move forward for an exotics finish.
:2: APARTFROMTHECROWD
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/apartfromthecrowd)
The pedigree fits and he ran his last with old horse manners. Connections are there drops 4 pounds off the win and gets Irad. A lot to like and should move forward. 3rd to Cavil on the off the turf event at Aqu. Key Race for the two.
Like him next out better but should be on exotic tickets.
:7: ALWAYS A SUSPECT
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/always+a+suspect)
Nothing remarkable with bloodlines. Wondering if this is a rabbit to soften things up for Kiaran's other entry. Like Gallardo and the post draw and would not be suprised to see him round out a super.
:1: TRUE TIMBER
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/true+timber)
Do feel this race today will be the best representation of how good he is. Had to eat a lot of mud last and ran on. Think he moves up on better track and is bred to stretch out. Like here to show his best.
:10: J BOYS ECHO
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/j+boys+echo)
Going to be a complete underlay to me. Must have been a beautiful yearling to fetch that much. Nothing for me to like here.
:9: SQUARE SHOOTER
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/square+shooter)
Will be anxious to see the future results of how Trappe Shot is going to cross on mares carrying Wavering Monarch. Nice combo. Won last while having to be reminded of business in the lane. Ran more like a sprinter for a trainer that excels 1st at route. 2 nice Fairhill works and looks to have been pointed for this. Should run well today but class will get checked.
:8: SMALL BEAR
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/small+bear)
Very slow mile from Parx and looks to have peaked on numbers. Regression expected today.
:3: JAMIE'S ANGEL
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/jaimes+angel)
Would be a huge upset as he moves from NY bred to open stakes. Take your best shot I guess and ran with Bavaro who flopped coming back. When is Garcia going to get a horse again. Sigh.
I like for win
:4:
For Big race
:1: :2: :9:
Underlay
:4: :6: :10:
Overlay
:1: :9:

Lemon Drop Husker
02-04-2017, 11:47 AM
Nice.

:9: is a bit interesting. Trappe Shot has turned into a really solid sire.

turninforhome10
02-04-2017, 01:34 PM
Robert B Lewis
SANTA ANITA PARK 02-04-2017 RACE 2 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 96
8.5f DIRT 3-YEAR-OLDS BY SUBS $100 EACH TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION CLOSED THURSDAY JAN 2
NONGRADED STAKE/HANDICAP PURSE: $150000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 50

Weighting Factors -1 1 1 1
PGM Name DLR *ML *BBet1 OLR SCORE
5 SHEER FLATTERY 35.00 *61.79 *59.32 2.80 4.01
2 IRAP 35.00 45.75 48.69 1.90 4.77
1 ROYAL MO *69.00 54.72 33.57 *0.80 4.82
4 TERM OF ART 28.00 38.50 48.57 7.60 5.82
3 DANGERFIELD 56.00 49.25 48.79 11.20 5.96

Short field of maiden winners and graded also rans. Lets start with my top pick
:5: SHEER FLATTERY
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/sheer+flattery3)
Not much to look at on pedigree, but pretty strong relations between Flatter and Grand Slam. Looked to relish two turns and carries good form forward. Like the 7\8ths drill and should get dream trip.
:2: IRAP
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/irap)
1/2 to Speightstown but don't see mare having produced much since. 300k for Jones cull (IMHO). Gets blinks on, but might have peaked as speed is coming back from here on out. Pratt moves on. All this and still a maiden. Pass
:1: ROYAL MO
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/royal+mo)
Complete outcross with no Raise A Native blood at all. Rare. Should like going further and string of works suggest this was the plan all along. If he gets the lead early he moves forward big time. Like this guy and see him running big.
:4: TERM OF ART
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/term+of+art)
Another Calumet runner who will pushed to the limit as young one. He is screwed in that he is not eligible for N1x as that would be the class at which he would be effective. I see claimer in this guys future.
:3: DANGERFIELD
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/dangerfield4)
Maiden winner in the Juvenile at OTP and looks to have peaked. Shows a nice work for the event, but I don't see Kent getting this one home late. Pass

For the win
:1: :5:
Underlays
:2: :3: :4:
Overlays
None

Lemon Drop Husker
02-04-2017, 01:45 PM
Solid

Yeah, :1: Royal Mo is about the only appetizing interest for me as well.

5 horse field looks unbettable.

turninforhome10
02-04-2017, 02:05 PM
Thanks for the feedback Husker. I think Florida will have the most impact today. Anxious to see the Motion horse at AQU. The maiden off Baffert's in the first looks like more of a player for the SA Derby than the stakes horses in the 2nd.
SA Race1
:2: REACH THE WORLD
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/reach+the+world)
Love this pedigree for creating a monster. Tail Female of Mr Prospector out of a Galileo mare and inbred from awesome females in all 4 quarters. If he can run like his blood shows, this could be a Baffert noisemaker.

PowerUpPaynter
02-04-2017, 02:05 PM
I like Irish War Cry too, but I feel like EVERYBODY loves Irish War cry making him the 'wise guy' horse... and that always turns into the suckers horse...

Ever notice the 'wise guy' horse always disappoints? He has been working neck and neck with Painter's Rags who tanked yesterday in a allowance race...

But Im on the Irish War Cry bandwagon, so we'll see...

turninforhome10
02-04-2017, 02:07 PM
I like Irish War Cry too, but I feel like EVERYBODY loves Irish War cry making him the 'wise guy' horse... and that always turns into the suckers horse...

Ever notice the 'wise guy' horse always disappoints? He has been working neck and neck with Painter's Rags who tanked yesterday in a allowance race...

But Im on the Irish War Cry bandwagon, so we'll see...


Will watch him in paddock and see how hot he gets. LRL shippers always scare me.

Lemon Drop Husker
02-04-2017, 02:09 PM
Thanks for the feedback Husker. I think Florida will have the most impact today. Anxious to see the Motion horse at AQU. The maiden off Baffert's in the first looks like more of a player for the SA Derby than the stakes horses in the 2nd.
SA Race1
:2: REACH THE WORLD
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/reach+the+world)
Love this pedigree for creating a monster. Tail Female of Mr Prospector out of a Galileo mare and inbred from awesome females in all 4 quarters. If he can run like his blood shows, this could be a Baffert noisemaker.

You said the magic word: "Galileo". I'm sold. :):ThmbUp:

Lemon Drop Husker
02-04-2017, 02:12 PM
I like Irish War Cry too, but I feel like EVERYBODY loves Irish War cry making him the 'wise guy' horse... and that always turns into the suckers horse...

Ever notice the 'wise guy' horse always disappoints? He has been working neck and neck with Painter's Rags who tanked yesterday in a allowance race...

But Im on the Irish War Cry bandwagon, so we'll see...

Pretty much read my mind. I've liked IWC for over a month or so. Particularly since the 1st KD pool came out and his huge odds.

I agree, the "wise guy" horse never seems to run well in races like these. Obviously we won't get the 15/1 ML.

turninforhome10
02-04-2017, 04:36 PM
Thanks for the feedback Husker. I think Florida will have the most impact today. Anxious to see the Motion horse at AQU. The maiden off Baffert's in the first looks like more of a player for the SA Derby than the stakes horses in the 2nd.
SA Race1
:2: REACH THE WORLD
Pedigree (http://www.pedigreequery.com/reach+the+world)
Love this pedigree for creating a monster. Tail Female of Mr Prospector out of a Galileo mare and inbred from awesome females in all 4 quarters. If he can run like his blood shows, this could be a Baffert noisemaker.
He ran like his blood shows it. Won with ears pricked. Like this guy alot as well as Honor and Courage.

turninforhome10
02-04-2017, 04:40 PM
With the scratch of the :6: in the Holy Bull
Classic Empire should play with this field.
Should being the key word

Lemon Drop Husker
02-04-2017, 06:49 PM
With the scratch of the :6: in the Holy Bull
Classic Empire should play with this field.
Should being the key word

5/1. Can't play IWC at those odds. :(

Lemon Drop Husker
02-04-2017, 07:04 PM
5/1. Can't play IWC at those odds. :(

Thankfully I don't have a gun in the house. :bang:

Irish War Cry absolutely romps.

turninforhome10
02-05-2017, 12:32 PM
Recap for Sat Feb 04 2017
FLA
Irish War Cry stamped as legit with a very nice win to show his two turn prowess. Does the Fountain of Youth play into plans or does he wait for FLA Derby? Classic Empire ran well but what did his performance say to the 2yo class that allowed him to remain undefeated? I would expect Classic Empire to come back in the FOY and go the Blue Grass route. Not really looking at anyone else from the race. Don't really see the Swale feeding the two turn classics.
Irish War Cry is still a bit green and see his best is yet to come.
NY
El Areeb still has the battery on his shoulder on the inner dirt and has yet to really see a challenger. I would think the Gotham is most likely his next. Inner dirt wonder? Class in NY in question. Tune into the next Bat episode. :faint:
Apartfromthecrowd will get better when we get back to the outer track. J Boys Echo had Romans in the Paddock yesterday so I would expect him to take money next out. Maybe at FG.
CALI
I believe we witnessed the one two finishers in the SA Derby as cashed in the 1st and 2nd race double. Baffert and Sherriefs are holding the aces in Reach the World and Royal Mo. Two grays kind of reminds me of the Silver Charm and Free House battles of old. Both horses are going to need a bit of seasoning so we'll see how the San Felipe shapes up.

Going forward for next week
Pletcher holding the aces with the maiden winners in Sam F Davis at Tampa?
Will break down after entries. Sam F Davis Stakes PPS from Nominations (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-TAM-20170211-540906)

Spalding No!
02-05-2017, 01:20 PM
Royal Mo isn't gray. You might still have El Areeb in your head or maybe looking ahead to Unique Bella.

turninforhome10
02-05-2017, 03:12 PM
Royal Mo isn't gray. You might still have El Areeb in your head or maybe looking ahead to Unique Bella.
No, I was thinking of Honor and Courage who ran 2nd in the maiden. Your right on Royal Mo. He is pure bay. Felt like the 1st and 2nd at SA yesterday blended together. Thanks for the correction.

turninforhome10
02-09-2017, 03:16 PM
Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday, February 11, 2017, Race 10
1 1/16mDirt $250,0003 yo4:45 PM (local)
PP Horse Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 State of Honor (ON) Julien R. Leparoux 116 Mark E. Casse
2 King and His Court (ON) Gary Boulanger 120 Mark E. Casse
3 Fact Finding (KY) John R. Velazquez 118 Todd A. Pletcher
4 Chance of Luck (KY) Ronald D Allen, Jr. 116 Gerald S. Bennett
5 Six Gun Salute (KY) Pablo Morales 116 Eoin G. Harty
6 Wild Shot (KY) Robby Albarado 116 George R. Arnold, II
7 Tapwrit (KY) Jose L. Ortiz 116 Todd A. Pletcher
8 McCraken (KY) Bri Hernandez, Jr. 122 Ian R. Wilkes
9 No Dozing (KY) Daniel Centeno 116 Arnaud Delacour

Saturday about 4:15 pm, patrons will start to crowd the walking ring to size up how the time off has treated the likely favorite in the Sam F Davis, with points on the line, McCraken makes his return to the races after a bridesmaid season behind Classic Empire. Trainer Wilkes marks it all in stride suggesting that this is the "fun part" of being a trainer.
Breakdown by Post
:1: State Of Honor (http://www.pedigreequery.com/state+of+honor) (Click on names for pedigrees). Traces back to George Widener female lines. Florida thru Farnsworth. Gunsmith Stables bred the good Fancy Pan,who produced the very good Avies Fancy who would produce the well meant St Averil. Current owners must have bought in foal to Henny Hughes and have got 4 starters, 3 winners and State Of Honor being the lone stakes winner. Like the fact they kept this foal as he has done well for them. My only issue is a wire to wire winner and his early type might spell long sprinter. If we reference St Averil, add the brilliant miler in Elusive Quality, I feel that may shorten up the Honor and Serve influence of speed to go a classic distance and dial him down to being crack for a one turn mile. Draws the rail after a second to Sonic Mule, who faded badly in the Swale. Feel post, running style and Julien don't add up for win. Like this pedigree for running 7 furs in 1:21 someday but today would spell disaster.
:2: King and His Court (http://www.pedigreequery.com/king+and+his+court) True Canadian Blood in this guy tracing back to a foundation mare for E P Taylor. Sold cheap as yearling. Returned big dividends. Looks to have relished the stretch out on the poly winning two of the nicer 2yo stakes up North. I am a huge fan of the Storm Bird ex Secretariat cross. Had a son of Storm Bird and another stallion out of a Secretariat mare that went back to Ta Wee. The cross has produced too many nice horses to be ignored. Add that onto another occurrence South Ocean (dam of Storm Bird) back in the female line and this pedigree carries some qualities that suggest his two turns are no joke. State of Honor made a nice rabbit for him two back. Numbers would need to improve on a sandy Tampa but connections are top notch and he should be fit off the slight breather. Would need a perfect 3/8ths run to close and not need to be asked to hard turning for home on the Tampa turns. A perfect trip can he contends for the tri.
:3: Fact Finding (http://www.pedigreequery.com/fact+finding2)
If you are firm believer in old school breeding theories that involve 2x3 and 3x4 crosses of the same the horse, then this is your horse.
Here is the cross. Sons of Northern Dancer over Miswaki mares. His third dam Sole was a jewel of DNA for Claiborne. I myself am very fond of Miswaki mares as it carries one of the most potent crosses of MR Prospector over Buckpasser. and then add Buckpasser as the tail female and this guy is full of quality. Hope it is not too tight. This guy scratched from last weeks spot for today's race and should be moving from the gate. Johnny V should be good for a tight stalking trip should be around to contend late.
:4: Chance of Luck (http://www.pedigreequery.com/chance+of+luck2) Traces back to Iltis dam of My Dear Girl and grandam of In Reality. So when you see Buckley Boy after Northern Dancer in a tail female think cull. Stronach sale mare and another bargain purchase that has returned big dividends. Kind of feel that he has been in the right place with the right fitness vs unfit speed and today is going to be gut check for local connections. See him tiring late as his class finds him backstroking to lesser foes next out.
:5: Six Gun Salute (http://www.pedigreequery.com/six+gun+salute) Here we find a 3/4 brother to Well Armed who heroically dusted all fores for Aaron Gryder in the Dubai World Cup. Here we find a situation that I might prejudice my audience, but I can not get behind the 12th foal usually as rule. I am very prejudice towards 2,3,4 and 5th foals as rule. Nothing to get excited about as I feel that Tiznow was the reason for Well Armed and Col John has less than blue blood female line that makes the pedigree cheap IMHO. Arlington or Presque Isle in the summer.
:6: Wild Shot (http://www.pedigreequery.com/wild+shot2)
If you don't appreciate this homebred then you should probably see this Claibourne (http://claibornefarm.com/). I remember this first time walking through the stallion barn and seeing the names on the stalls was awe inspiring. Claibourne thought enough of Trappe Shot to breed one of their best blood lines to support him. But his great grandsire is also his Great Uncle. Could the Preach influence get our hopes. I say that because I loved Pulpit for the Derby only to be crushed when he got hurt. Same with Tapit. He was never the same after the Wood. Wild Shot has also had a speedy start to his career being on near the engine in all of his starts. Ran with the best last year as per the Eclipse Awards, but so far everyone will be suspect going forward with Classic Empire getting beat. I would think Rusty would be high on this one and the Payson drills are lights out. Payson is so good for building stamina. Mott taught me that. Hope this guy stays sound as I feel this youngin' could get a win picture for top connections. Fingers crossed with him as I am excited for his run. Can Trappe Shot go classic?
:7: Tapwrit (http://www.pedigreequery.com/tapwrit)
Want to see what million dollars looks like? Check out this guys ring picture from the Saratoga Preferred 2015. Breed the best to the best and hope that a million happens somewhere. Top stallion with excellent racemare that has failed to reproduce herself in 5 trys with other bigglies. Call me nervous but for a million bucks should not thisone be at Gulfstream? Needed GPW to break maiden and won a stakes to secure lucrative stallion contract in Podunk nowhere as a son of Tapit who Pletcher paid a million for. Pletcher ran 1-2 in the Pulpit and Master Plan came back to win at OBS against FLA breds. Like Ortiz but feel he is better served with Chad Brown and Catapault in the Tampa Bay Stakes. Next.....
:8: McCracken (http://www.pedigreequery.com/mccraken)
Could this be the big horse for homebred connections. 3rd generation Whitham is pretty stealthy when breeders are concerned. He has done everything right at the best place for a Derby horse. Instead of pressuring him to make the Breeders Cup, Wilkes planned a perfect 3 race campaign at CD which in itself show the horse has grit. He should get a dream trip from the outside if that first turn picks up 2 or 3 on the engine. He really does not need his best to move forward here and while today would be nice, it is not the primary plan. Would have to think that you will find out the 2yo CD class after this race. I always thinking of betting time trials in QH racing and all you have to do is qualify so much will be left for the big race if there was true class. Got burned one year on SLM Big Daddy. only to watch him pay 3-1 the only time in his career. Like this guy more for Derby's than Stakes. A must play just as Classic Empire?
:9: No Dozing (http://www.pedigreequery.com/no+dozing)
Homebred for connections of storied Barbaro. Have yet to get a breakout horse from regally bred mare. Female family of AP Indy, but was a Claibourne cull. Has run well but has run his best races when going shorter. Already showed by loosing to to other entrants in here. Need a horse for the Tesio? Keep him in the stable mail.Pass..

My synopsis.
:3: :6:
Ticket Makers
:2: :3: :6: :8:
Thanks for reading and hope you always get the nod.

VigorsTheGrey
02-09-2017, 05:13 PM
"If you are firm believer in old school breeding theories that involve 2x3 and 3x4 crosses of the same the horse, then this is your horse"

I don't know much but would like to learn more about these theories...can you point me in the right direction as to where this info may be found...

or what does 2x3 and 3x4 crosses mean when looking at a horse's pedigree...?

turninforhome10
02-09-2017, 09:05 PM
"If you are firm believer in old school breeding theories that involve 2x3 and 3x4 crosses of the same the horse, then this is your horse"

I don't know much but would like to learn more about these theories...can you point me in the right direction as to where this info may be found...

or what does 2x3 and 3x4 crosses mean when looking at a horse's pedigree...?
Couple of good books to start with.
Taylor Guide (https://www.amazon.com/Taylors-Complete-Breeding-Raising-Racehorses/dp/0929346610)
Tesio (https://www.amazon.com/Breeding-Racehorse-Frederico-Tesio/dp/0851316182/ref=pd_sim_14_3/157-4807076-4978756?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0851316182&pd_rd_r=SRCRCDEZD9YNY4K6MTHW&pd_rd_w=NoYOS&pd_rd_wg=IxKj9&psc=1&refRID=SRCRCDEZD9YNY4K6MTHW)
and my favorite of all time
Hewitt's Guide (https://www.amazon.com/great-breeders-their-methods/dp/B0006YUKNC/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1486688173&sr=8-2&keywords=great+breeders+and+their+methods)
These would be a good start.
As for a 2x3 of 3x4
Take Fact Finding- He is bred with Miswaki on the topside (sire) in the 3rd generation. He is bred with Miswaki on the bottom side (dam) in the 3rd generation. Thus he is 3x3 Miswaki. With Buckpasser he is 5x on the top and 5x5 Buckpasser on the bottom so he is 5x5x5 Buckpasser. See this Equineline Report and look at the inbreeding section. Fact Finding (http://www.equineline.com/Free-5X-Pedigree.cfm?page_state=ORDER_AND_CONFIRM&reference_number=9661868)

turninforhome10
02-09-2017, 09:16 PM
Knew something was not right......Foot abcess (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219721/classic-empire-on-the-mend-after-foot-abscess)

turninforhome10
02-09-2017, 10:08 PM
The reason for the thread title Blood Files, it is reference to the way I study a pedigree. Go back to the 4th dam and look at the who and what got the line to the present. Was the breeder's main goal racing or selling? I really like to find and follow those lines which have shown the most stability in ownership. Lines that have stayed in smart hands and have been bred to race. "The blood remains clean". While sometimes big named stallions might look good in a pedigree, was it money or brains that draws the small owner of a stakes winning Ohio bred mare to breed to Storm Cat? With McCracken and Irish War Cry we have 3 generations of the same ownership of the line. Development and breeding to race are bred into 3 generations by smart hands. While a horse bought at sale always plays a huge role in the classics, Tesio always said "the only reason to breed is the finish line at the classic races. Tesio (http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Breeding_Racehorses_Federico_Tesio_The_Wizard_of_D ormello_123#)
It also does not hurt that I am a blood bank specialist for a top Reference Lab and get paid to study blood group genetics. :)

VigorsTheGrey
02-10-2017, 12:48 AM
The reason for the thread title Blood Files, it is reference to the way I study a pedigree. Go back to the 4th dam and look at the who and what got the line to the present. Was the breeder's main goal racing or selling? I really like to find and follow those lines which have shown the most stability in ownership. Lines that have stayed in smart hands and have been bred to race. "The blood remains clean". While sometimes big named stallions might look good in a pedigree, was it money or brains that draws the small owner of a stakes winning Ohio bred mare to breed to Storm Cat? With McCracken and Irish War Cry we have 3 generations of the same ownership of the line. Development and breeding to race are bred into 3 generations by smart hands. While a horse bought at sale always plays a huge role in the classics, Tesio always said "the only reason to breed is the finish line at the classic races. Tesio (http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Breeding_Racehorses_Federico_Tesio_The_Wizard_of_D ormello_123#)
It also does not hurt that I am a blood bank specialist for a top Reference Lab and get paid to study blood group genetics. :)

A question on Greys...
Tapit is grey....I ran across an article recently that I'm trying to relocate that details the 4 sires that all Greys are descended from including Tapit...I think one was an Irish sire...do you recall the 4 sires....?

Also, there is 1 sire that all Whites are descended from....can't remember, do you recall...?

Thank you.

turninforhome10
02-10-2017, 06:04 AM
A question on Greys...
Tapit is grey....I ran across an article recently that I'm trying to relocate that details the 4 sires that all Greys are descended from including Tapit...I think one was an Irish sire...do you recall the 4 sires....?

Also, there is 1 sire that all Whites are descended from....can't remember, do you recall...?

Thank you.
The Irish sire you are thinking of that brought in the grey is this guy,The Tetrarch (http://www.pedigreequery.com/the+tetrarch)
But when talking of the grey from Tapit, I feel the genes at work are more from Foggy Note (http://www.pedigreequery.com/foggy+note). She was a homozygous grey.This means that her grey jeans are dominate and no what color you breed to her, you will get a grey. It is funny you should ask about greys. One of the first mares I worked with in Iowa was this grey lady, Swing Vichine (http://www.pedigreequery.com/swing+vichine). She was a homozygous grey. She did not produce much in the way of race horse stock, so we decided to breed her to a top paint sire hoping for color. 3 grey foals who only later when one of the fillies were bred back did we actually get any color. But after research it was the Swing til Dawn (http://www.pedigreequery.com/swing+till+dawn) influence that was blocking any color. He is homozygous donor. See Zygosity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zygosity)

turninforhome10
02-11-2017, 06:28 PM
A question on Greys...
Tapit is grey....I ran across an article recently that I'm trying to relocate that details the 4 sires that all Greys are descended from including Tapit...I think one was an Irish sire...do you recall the 4 sires....?

Also, there is 1 sire that all Whites are descended from....can't remember, do you recall...?

Thank you.
The stallion for white horses is I believe Airdrie Apache (http://www.pedigreequery.com/airdrie+apache)

turninforhome10
02-12-2017, 04:29 AM
A track record broken, and questions answered for now.
My synopsis again was beaten up by bad mouthing the speed.
Fact Finding seems the lesser of the Pletcher's.
No Dozing seemed asleep or the curse of the outside at Tampa?
King and His Court a statement about the class of the Canuck 2yo?
Wild Shot shows a new style and should move forward next.
Wilkes say's 2 races before the Derby. Tracks will be clamoring for a Classic Empire vs McCraken showdown. Will they cross paths?
I have a gut feeling Classic Empire was trying to tell the folks about his abscess (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219721/classic-empire-on-the-mend-after-foot-abscess) with his bad antics at the gate and subsequent lack luster performance. I look for CE to rebound in a big way, predicting the FOY to get some seasoning since he has faced "adversity".
A note on my use of pedigrees for this column. While it is fun to talk about the ancestry of these great animals, and probe around looking for things that might find a small sample size of success. It can also be used to look at the economic success of the female family. Whether it be racing or breeding which lines, by putting up production stayed with breeders who breed to race. Back in the day, there were dynastic type breeding operations that would create classic horse after classic horse. If I can by looking at pedigree know that the winner of the Tampa Bay Stakes-Inspector Lynley (http://www.pedigreequery.com/inspector+lynley)
goes back to the Wheatly Stables Narrative and has been in the hands of the Janney's since 1969, looking at the stallions on the female line, I would say that this is a top quality bloodline. Why? Because money is no object. They are breeding for a horse to win races. Not to pinhook a yearling or two year old. Not the breeder who back door's into owning a mare and is looking to make a quick buck. Lines that have been cultivated like heirloom seeds to outperform the mean of the breed year after year. So in a way I am merely looking at who has been gardening the female family. Juddmont, Claibourne, Three Chimmneys, are some of your bigger outfits, but as evidenced by the winners of the Holy Bull, Tampa Bay Stakes (with Irish War Cry's 1/2 brother running 2nd) and Sam F Davis, the smaller outfits are riding high on their homebreds.
Any guesses to whether the Derby will be won by a homebred or a sale horse?

turninforhome10
02-12-2017, 01:14 PM
Maiden watch for Sunday Feb 12
5th Race FG
1 1/16th Turf MSW 3yo Males
:5: Wolf Strike (http://www.pedigreequery.com/wolf+strike3)
Son of Smart Strike from family 5-c through Special (http://www.pedigreequery.com/special) . Special place in my heart to the dam of Sadler's Wells. Add Nijinsky II, The Bid, Easy Goer and Silver Deputy, being by Smart Strike is special also as I love to see No Class and Smart Strike exceptional family. Notice the jock shakeup? Robbie drops a competitive for this one.
Pro's- Well bred,top connections, balanced work pattern, no world beaters to contend with.
Cons-Older mare,post does not lend kindly to getting a clean trip but for good horse first time at distance, nominated to LA Derby but is starting on turf. Sore feet? Might need a race.
Feel this guy might be one to track going forward.

VigorsTheGrey
02-12-2017, 03:04 PM
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pedigree-insights-frosted-and-the-grays/

http://www.pedigreequery.com/master+robert

http://www.pedigreequery.com/crab

http://www.pedigreequery.com/curwen+spot+mare

http://www.pedigreequery.com/lowther+barb+mare

PowerUpPaynter
02-12-2017, 08:02 PM
A track record broken, and questions answered for now.
My synopsis again was beaten up by bad mouthing the speed.
Fact Finding seems the lesser of the Pletcher's.
No Dozing seemed asleep or the curse of the outside at Tampa?
King and His Court a statement about the class of the Canuck 2yo?
Wild Shot shows a new style and should move forward next.
Wilkes say's 2 races before the Derby. Tracks will be clamoring for a Classic Empire vs McCraken showdown. Will they cross paths?
I have a gut feeling Classic Empire was trying to tell the folks about his abscess (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/219721/classic-empire-on-the-mend-after-foot-abscess) with his bad antics at the gate and subsequent lack luster performance. I look for CE to rebound in a big way, predicting the FOY to get some seasoning since he has faced "adversity".
A note on my use of pedigrees for this column. While it is fun to talk about the ancestry of these great animals, and probe around looking for things that might find a small sample size of success. It can also be used to look at the economic success of the female family. Whether it be racing or breeding which lines, by putting up production stayed with breeders who breed to race. Back in the day, there were dynastic type breeding operations that would create classic horse after classic horse. If I can by looking at pedigree know that the winner of the Tampa Bay Stakes-Inspector Lynley (http://www.pedigreequery.com/inspector+lynley)
goes back to the Wheatly Stables Narrative and has been in the hands of the Janney's since 1969, looking at the stallions on the female line, I would say that this is a top quality bloodline. Why? Because money is no object. They are breeding for a horse to win races. Not to pinhook a yearling or two year old. Not the breeder who back door's into owning a mare and is looking to make a quick buck. Lines that have been cultivated like heirloom seeds to outperform the mean of the breed year after year. So in a way I am merely looking at who has been gardening the female family. Juddmont, Claibourne, Three Chimmneys, are some of your bigger outfits, but as evidenced by the winners of the Holy Bull, Tampa Bay Stakes (with Irish War Cry's 1/2 brother running 2nd) and Sam F Davis, the smaller outfits are riding high on their homebreds.
Any guesses to whether the Derby will be won by a homebred or a sale horse?

I thought Wild Shot faded hard in the last 16th

VigorsTheGrey
02-12-2017, 08:17 PM
http://www.tbheritage.com/HistoricDams/EngFoundationMares/Family9/Family9.html

turninforhome10
02-13-2017, 09:59 AM
I thought Wild Shot faded hard in the last 16th
He did in a sense, but I felt Robbie asked him to go a little to hard a little to soon and knew in the final 1/16th. BUT, I also felt he got a lot of experience in rating and looked good doing it. Can tell if there was contact with Tapwrit at the the top of the stretch but he changed leads awkwardly, chalk it up to experience. I am not really leaning towards this guy being a top Derby contender, but he will win a stakes race in his next 3 starts.(IMHO).

turninforhome10
02-14-2017, 11:56 AM
Since I have been talking so much about pedigrees, let me break one down for you.
I am really high on Baffert's maiden winner Reach The World
I would go to pedigreequery.com- http://www.pedigreequery.com/
First thing to remember about the site is that is volunteer, meaning that folks like you and me have built it with help of the site itself. It's accuracy regarding the information on the horse might be inaccurate as to sale prices, race record etc, but it also spot on for the pedigree itself.
Reach The World (http://www.pedigreequery.com/reach+the+world)
When I open the pedigree the first thing I notice is that his 5th dam is Sequence. This is a major family in 13-c tracing back to Frizette.
Sequence is the 2nd dam of Mr Prospector. Then notice that Nutmeg Native is a 3/4 sibling to Mr P being from the same 2nd and same sire. Then we breed that great genetic cluster to Seattle Slew resulting in Escena 1998 Champion Mare in the US. And Galileo added to the mix should provide stamina to the pedigree, BTW I really like Galileo for his mom Urban Sea and Sadler's Wells does not hurt.LOL. Every quarter except the 4th has Mr P in the pedigree and from sources that had more stamina than his sprinting types. His dosage is very stamina laden with a Dosage Index of 1.67. Reach the World is quite fast and stayed on to win a very nice maiden. Video Race 1 (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/race-results?startDate=2%2F04%2F2017&endDate=2%2F4%2F2017&trackLookupId=1663&type=MaidenSpecial&statesBred=&searchStateBredPlacers=false). I love this pedigree being from 13-c and showing stamina. I would look for this guy to make some noise going forward. I will go out on a limb and say he will be 6-1 or less in the Santa Anita Derby and could win it.
Any questions feel free to ask.

turninforhome10
02-25-2017, 01:14 AM
Since this file got a bit huge, I made it as doc. to utilize the web links. Virus Free and appreciate any feedback. Good Luck
Float onto the links for extra information including video highlights and relevant information regarding horse. Use control, click to go to link.

turninforhome10
02-25-2017, 01:42 AM
Without links as a pdf

turninforhome10
02-25-2017, 05:04 AM
After some final editing and getting the hyperlinks into the pdf., this is my final copy. Sorry for the poor previous editing. Thanks for reading.