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dav4463
07-25-2004, 03:22 AM
If you have the knack to get longshot winners (9-1+ odds) in your top four, is it feasible to bet only longshots and make serious money at the track ? I know there will be long runouts, but when I check the records, these longshots make up the majority of profit. It takes discipline to lose bet after bet, but is there anybody out there who does this with success ?

Fastracehorse
07-25-2004, 04:08 AM
I like to play 4 tracks to find those bombs.

It is called spot playing - not for the action player. My action is late at night pouring over PP's :)

I like to play the bombs that I actually think are the best - it happens!

fffastt

Blackgold
07-25-2004, 07:51 AM
Dav, I look at most cards most days except the bullrings at places I've never heard of or cannot pronounce.

From those races I usually have 3 to 4 I'm willing to invest in and yes, I'm looking for bombers.

But if I can't see the race clearly enough to be able to hook the bomber with 4-5 others in the exotics, then it's a sign to me I don't really understand the race and I try to pass. . . try being the operative word- you are constantly battling yourself more than you are the other players.

Just remember, longshots hit the board far more often than they win, so to make money this way you must have a solid exotic strategy.

My highest return on the dollar is in the superfectas, yet I only hit about 7% of them, so yes runouts are part of the fun.

Good luck!

Tadek
07-25-2004, 04:21 PM
Dav,

I am a profile player. I start by gathering about ten race cards from the current meet on a track I want to play. In the next step I adjust my evaluation method to find a positive expectation and I consistently play picks made by the method. My decisions are reduced to establishing the value of the pick and either playing it or not depending on my assessment of current parameters.

This way I play fairly wide range of odds but I found out that picks going at 9-1+ are usually very profitable. Here you have a few examples:

Belmont – 6/23/04 – 7/24/04

Profit………….Profit/$………..Nbr. Races……….Nbr Winners………Win%
$83.00……….$1.53…………...27………………...4…………………...14.81

Bay Meadows – 4/21/04 – 6/10/04
Profit………….Profit/$………..Nbr. Races……….Nbr Winners………Win%
$39.40………...$0.44………….40…………………3……………………7.50

Santa Anita – 12/26/03-4/18/04
Profit………….Profit/$………..Nbr. Races……….Nbr Winners………Win%
$136.00……….$1.17………….58…………………7…………………..12.07

Numbers in the table above look very enticing but one must remember that at least 50% of each profit is made by one big ticket. Thus one must have an absolute faith in his method and his statistic.

I am not yet there.

Regards

Tadek

dav4463
07-25-2004, 10:30 PM
I'm always tempted to back up my longshot plays with exacta as a place bet, but over the long haul, I've found that I would have made more money putting the extra spent on exactas on the win end. However, in trifectas, it has been profitable to play my longshot in both first and second spot. How many longshot possibilities do you usually find on a racecard? I'm averaging about 6 horses per card...some races I like two or three in the same race. Usually 4 of the 6 go off at 9-1 or higher and these are my main plays. What I like about it is you only have to be right every once in a while and I find that playing these 9-1 and up horses is not that much more risky for me than playing a 2-1 shot. For some reason, the 2-1 shots that I really like run up the track far too often !

BIG HIT
07-26-2004, 07:28 AM
WOW dave you have the same luck with favorite's as me.Don't know why?. My goal is to have 20% winner's with none paying less then 5 to1.Do think every logshot has some virtue which after the race seem's bettter after race.I'am trying to limit my action now and inprove win%.By modeing race or price horse or both together.

Bill Cullen
07-26-2004, 02:49 PM
Dave,

I look for a horse who has had the same trainer for the last ten races (the horse must have at least 10 previous races). Then I look for at least one win at 10/1 or higher AND at least a second place finish at 10/1 or higher in the hose's past ten races.These races should be at least four races back in the horse's record (in other words, the win at 10/1 or higher AND the second place finish at 10/1 or higher can't be more recent than the fourth race back).

Then I look for a jock who rode the 10/1 winner or who rode the horse who came in second place at 10/1 or higher (or who rode in both races). If this jockey is riding the horse today AND this jockey hasn't ridden the horse since one or both of those 10/1 or higher qualifying races, then bet the horse today if it goes off at 10/1 or higher odds.

I think you'll be surprised how well this system works.

Bill Cullen

kenwoodallpromos
07-26-2004, 03:24 PM
Most of my beaten low odds horses are tired after winning a few, or else wrong post for the track speed/running style.
I only play longshots if the breeding is good, the expected pace and track speed is right, and if there are no entrants that qualify as "never bet against".

Fastracehorse
07-27-2004, 02:17 AM
How many longshot possibilities do you usually find on a racecard?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

To be honest, real solid plays are maybe 1 or 2 a day playing 4 or 5 tracks.

I think the key is to have a method that points to strong plays - not just possibilities.

fffastt

Macdiarmadillo
07-27-2004, 03:13 AM
If your longshots made up the majority of your profits, then you answered your own first question.

The counter question is how much serious money are you willing to bet, how much are you emotionally capable of betting, how much can you stand to lose, emotionally and financially, in order to try to make serious money? And will you be absolutely inflexible when you have a 5-1 that deserves to be 2-1, but also a 20-1 that deserves to be 5-1 in the same race?

I like fffastt's comments above.

hurrikane
07-27-2004, 08:08 AM
I agree with fffaasst also,

I play several tracks and may only have 1-4 plays a day..some days none.

The spot play is a grind though so be ready for it....