Tweaking Your Game

[ReplayRandall]

Tweaking my methodologies over the years has been the difference in maintaining an edge. I would like to share a couple of "tweaks" I've found to be effective NOW, in today's game.

1. I do not play a horse in the win position ever, if they race WITHOUT lasix.

2. If a horse has "drifted" in one of its last 2 races, and has no layoff after the drift race, the horse is a throw-out for me.

3. My strongest plays in the win hole, almost always include a workout of at least 4F since their last race.

I know that some of you might disagree with my comments, but these tweaks have added a few % points to my +ROI. Let's hear what some of you have come up with and care to share....

PS...I don't really expect "trade" secrets here, just a few handicapping tighteners.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I know that I've mentioned this more than once, but for those people that hate to play maidens, especially ones filled with lightly raced horses: the horse didn't run well enough in the debut to attract much attention - but had a good race or a little trouble or just even ran in spurts and drips - and is back for the second time and since the debut has at least one work that compares favorably with those prior to the debut. Often it's just the racing experience turned the switch on, sometimes it is the barn that deliberately has them fit but not cranked for the first and then drills down for the second trip. But, it has always been one of those exclamation marks on one that I'm looking at which has steered me to some live plays at good prices.

[lamboguy]

on the first part, generally horses without lasix tend to go off at higher prices than the ones that don't. my guess is that it would come out in the wash.

lugged in is my favorite comment to bet on the next race out because its pretty easy to fix sometimes. often times it just requires an adjustment to the bit.

i never play horses that have the comment bore out next to them because that is almost a surefire sign that the horse is a hurting sore soul and needs time away from the races.

[ultracapper]

on the first part, generally horses without lasix tend to go off at higher prices than the ones that don't. my guess is that it would come out in the wash.

lugged in is my favorite comment to bet on the next race out because its pretty easy to fix sometimes. often times it just requires an adjustment to the bit.

i never play horses that have the comment bore out next to them because that is almost a surefire sign that the horse is a hurting sore soul and needs time away from the races.

Blowing the turn, then adding blinkers thinking that will solve it, immediate toss. Can't ever remember that working, and everybody gets all over it, particularly if the horse is front speed.

One tweak I've made is too not fret so much about price. There are still times when the price is too short, but I'm more likely to play a shorter priced horse, if I feel the price is fair, than I used to be. If I really feel the race is a particular horse's to win, I'm much more forgiving on price than I used to be. I have to be very careful I'm not being suckered in, but I am cashing more tickets now because I'm not passing as many races simply because of price.

[lamboguy]

Blowing the turn, then adding blinkers thinking that will solve it, immediate toss. Can't ever remember that working, and everybody gets all over it, particularly if the horse is front speed.

One tweak I've made is too not fret so much about price. There are still times when the price is too short, but I'm more likely to play a shorter priced horse, if I feel the price is fair, than I used to be. If I really feel the race is a particular horse's to win, I'm much more forgiving on price than I used to be. I have to be very careful I'm not being suckered in, but I am cashing more tickets now because I'm not passing as many races simply because of price.the thing that has killed me is that there are so many different bets to choose from and only so much money to bet on them that they all hurt the win pools. so i have to bet more smaller than i would like and the game turns out to be a complete waste of time. my other big problem is that i have nothing better to do. i think i am going to take up something else next year after the summer like some type of volunteer work that is more productive than horse race gambling.

[CincyHorseplayer]

When top 2 contenders in a race are 3-1 or less no play(excepting horizontal).

Unless 2 of top 4 contenders in a race are 5-1 and up no vertical play.

Exception being a 2 horse race where each exacta combination is paying $30 or better.(using this as a rough payoff guideline to all vertical exotics)

Because I think a high volume of plays is essential, passing races with borderline profit potential is completely necessary.

[ultracapper]

the thing that has killed me is that there are so many different bets to choose from and only so much money to bet on them that they all hurt the win pools. so i have to bet more smaller than i would like and the game turns out to be a complete waste of time. my other big problem is that i have nothing better to do. i think i am going to take up something else next year after the summer like some type of volunteer work that is more productive than horse race gambling.

This is why I chose SoCal as my circuit of choice. My bets aren't so big to have a profound effect on Delmar or SA win pools, while some of my bets would stand out like a sore thumb at Emerald Downs. I never want my bets to look like "smart" money, attracting other bettors and depressing the price even more. In SoCal, I'm able to hide in the win pool. Most 7 or 8 horse fields will attract $125K-$150K in the win pool. That's more than enough for me to be comfortable I don't have the largest bet on any particular horse. At EMD, where $5K will have a horse at 2/1 with 2MTP, it's very difficult to be aggressive.

[JJMartin]

For each horse in a race:
X = Average position at 1st call going back for all previous races for the year (not life).
Y = Average position at 2nd call going back for all previous races for the year (not life).

Contender if X - Y > 0 and ranks within top 3 for the field.

Throw out every race where any horse has no record.
Add this to your method, should increase strike rate but may reduce avg $.

[tanner12oz]

The less I play the better my roi

[pondman]

Put the #1 ranked horse in 4th, and load the 3rd leg with mules.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Make fewer bets. Real quality over Quantity. Never again making a bad percentage play!!Sounds simplistic but it is real the philosophy of not making more good bets but fewer bad ones. (prime bets), as I don't believe in action bets.

[arw629]

I toss 1st timers who were sold at auction for cheaper than the stud fee 99% of the time

[no breathalyzer]

Make fewer bets. Real quality over Quantity. Never again making a bad percentage play!!Sounds simplistic but it is real the philosophy of not making more good bets but fewer bad ones. (prime bets), as I don't believe in action bets.

this! and don't bet bad percentages ... no matter what you been told or think jockey does matter tho

[PhantomOnTour]

I toss 1st timers who were sold at auction for cheaper than the stud fee 99% of the time
And conversely, any first time starter that sold at auction for 20 times his sire's stud fee will get a 2nd look from me.

[ReplayRandall]

Do you want to know where you're making a profit, even though you've shown overall losses for the last few years? Check your records lately? Do you even keep records?

This may help you spot where your strengths/profits lie:

#1. Breakdown all your plays into 3 categories, Layoff horses(including first-time starters), second/third race from a layoff, and current condition horses.

#2. Now breakdown those categories into different tracks, then surface, sprints or routes, Class- Alw or above, claimers, maidens/mdclm, post-time odds and results. Optional- Blinks on/off and first-time Lasix.

#3. Once you keep these kind of records for at least 3 years, I guarantee you will find where the profit is in your game. It will also show you if you need to totally scrap your game and find something else to do with your time and money.

Are you UP for doing the work and finding out the truth about your game?......BTW, keep records in the order I specified above, #1 is what makes all the difference if done first.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Do you want to know where you're making a profit, even though you've shown overall losses for the last few years? Check your records lately? Do you even keep records?

This may help you spot where your strengths/profits lie:

#1. Breakdown all your plays into 3 categories, Layoff horses(including first-time starters), second/third race from a layoff, and current condition horses.

#2. Now breakdown those categories into different tracks, then surface, sprints or routes, Class- Alw or above, claimers, maidens/mdclm, post-time odds and results. Optional- Blinks on/off and first-time Lasix.

#3. Once you keep these kind of records for at least 3 years, I guarantee you will find where the profit is in your game. It will also show you if you need to totally scrap your game and find something else to do with your time and money.

Are you UP for doing the work and finding out the truth about your game?......BTW, keep records in the order I specified above, #1 is what makes all the difference if done first.

All of this is solved by price. After 10-20 years of playing you know once you spot a horse you think has the ability to win the race yes the question is will they duplicate that race today? But if the horse is 8/5 or 5-1 you have protocol to act on. Even if backed by more positive stats I'm not betting the 8/5 shot. Every race I look at it usually comes down to 2 horses, rarely 1 or 3. Tracking those contenders they win about the same % of races. This year for me 28% each. I rarely split hairs on the 2 unless they are both 4-1 or better. I just bet the unplayed horse. My average mutuel has gone from a 12 year 9.40 to 12.50. Just by tweaking how I was looking at why to bet horse A versus horse B. You have to assume the good handicapping like you are doing is there. Price is what separates relative equals. That's the tweak!

[lamboy]

my biggest tweak has been to tighten up my psychological make-up. Trade Mindfully by Dayton is an excellent read for those who understand the financial markets.

[JohnGalt1]

I make a class, form and pace/speed rating.

While the first and last items are obviously important, I ignored or downgraded the importance of form.

Many times I would play a horse that is in the top 3 in class and speed off a lay off with only a slow 4 f workout in the last 2 months, and when the horse lost to a slower and or less classy horse, but had no negative form factors, it took too long for the light to go on.

It's a 3 leg stool and each leg is almost equally important.

And that's increased my win %.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I make a class, form and pace/speed rating.

While the first and last items are obviously important, I ignored or downgraded the importance of form.

Many times I would play a horse that is in the top 3 in class and speed off a lay off with only a slow 4 f workout in the last 2 months, and when the horse lost to a slower and or less classy horse, but had no negative form factors, it took too long for the light to go on.

It's a 3 leg stool and each leg is almost equally important.

And that's increased my win %.

After a certain point don't you think your handicapping ability remains static and your win % roughly the same? I think there is less to gain in increased win % than there is in better decision making. I provided a common statistical reality above but a different selection strategy and it has meant a 33% avg mutuel increase. All the exotics file suit. Over time I think we all become better handicappers. Winning better and more and not necessarily more often is easily in reach.

[JohnGalt1]

After a certain point don't you think your handicapping ability remains static and your win % roughly the same? I think there is less to gain in increased win % than there is in better decision making. I provided a common statistical reality above but a different selection strategy and it has meant a 33% avg mutuel increase. All the exotics file suit. Over time I think we all become better handicappers. Winning better and more and not necessarily more often is easily in reach.

I agree.

I do my handicapping by hand with pen and paper.

First I rank horses for running style.

Then I do my class rating for all horses, then the three letter form factor rating, finally a pace/speed rating.

After doing my work, the winner is there, or not.

And I was not recognizing and selecting the correct bets-- even according to my method.

So you are right that my decision making was off because I was to often using only 2 legs of my handicapping stool.

So now my win % has improved to what it used to be.

[Robert Fischer]

Problem: Inefficient translation of opinion-->wager

Solutions:

develop and familiarize wager templates for common scenarios
consider Einstein's Razor ("...as simple as possible, but no simpler.") Start with 'Win'(simplicity) and work your way outward(towards complexity) when absolutely necessary.
make a value appraisal for each potentially-betable opinion, and be willing to 'fold' a great opinion if the value isn't significant




Problem: Mental Mistakes

Solutions:

beware of mental pitfalls such as: deprival superreaction tendency (chasing losses), man w/ hammer bias (seeing what you want, rather than objective reality), action/compulsion/boredom (spend that energy on aware preparation), results-oriented bias (get your dopamine-high from masterful 'process', never from a single result outcome.)

[zerosky]

My tweak is 'Don't Tweak a winning system"
The number of times I would be be showing a consistent profit only to 'Tweak' the system to extract more juice, then watch as the profits disappeared. Now I handicap the exact same way every time and it has turned my game around.If I do want to mess around with various other factors I do it outside the system and would only consider incorporating it, if my profits vanished.

[ultracapper]

Problem: Inefficient translation of opinion-->wager

Solutions:

develop and familiarize wager templates for common scenarios
consider Einstein's Razor ("...as simple as possible, but no simpler.") Start with 'Win'(simplicity) and work your way outward(towards complexity) when absolutely necessary.
make a value appraisal for each potentially-betable opinion, and be willing to 'fold' a great opinion if the value isn't significant




Problem: Mental Mistakes

Solutions:

beware of mental pitfalls such as: deprival superreaction tendency (chasing losses), man w/ hammer bias (seeing what you want, rather than objective reality), action/compulsion/boredom (spend that energy on aware preparation), results-oriented bias (get your dopamine-high from masterful 'process', never from a single result outcome.)


Just printed, enlarged, and taped the highlighted material to my cabinet door. Out-freaking-standing.

[Robert Fischer]

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Just printed, enlarged, and taped the highlighted material to my cabinet door. Out-freaking-standing.


The mental game is very important.

My brain's computer works fine for handicapping, but when it comes to overcoming a 17% Takeout, by way of selective, rational gambling, - not so much.

horseplaying, investing, business, etc... all must conquer psychological biases.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The mental game is very important.

My brain's computer works fine for handicapping, but when it comes to overcoming a 17% Takeout, by way of selective, rational gambling, - not so much.

horseplaying, investing, business, etc... all must conquer psychological biases.

Robert I get a lot out of your posts and have for a long time. Real deal brother! Had to chime in also.

[ultracapper]

The mental game is very important.

My brain's computer works fine for handicapping, but when it comes to overcoming a 17% Takeout, by way of selective, rational gambling, - not so much.

horseplaying, investing, business, etc... all must conquer psychological biases.

I understand fully the items you itemized, but the beauty of the post is the clinical terms you gave to each. It gives each challenge a depth that just saying "Don't chase your losses" fails to deliver. Saying "I love the process of handicapping but it's nothing like the thrill of winning" just doesn't speak to the heart of the issue the way "results-oriented bias" does. Your post made it clear that it's not personal weaknesses we're dealing with when we lose our discipline, for instance. It's real challenges in the way our brains work that makes the mental part of this game such a challenge.

You really have to be honest with yourself, and honest with the data, to master this game. Your post touched on this profoundly.

Agree with Cincy. Your contributions are better than the average, and appreciated.

[betovernetcapper]

One day I was playing Delaware and the announcer made a compelling case for 8 of the horses in an 8 horse field. I suddenly started to notice the messages coming from the announcers before the races & a lot of it was more noise than signal. Messages like "better hurry, only 10 minutes to get in your pic 6 tickets where we have a $100,000 carry over pool" aren't really helpful. Much of what is broadcast from the track is designed to get you to bet more. Even the background music is set to sort of stimulate you. At one Japan Race they were playing war drums. The stuff they broadcast is designed to make you carless with your money.
Having said the above, I'll acknowledge that there is some good information
that is broadcast from time to time but I find it difficult to separate it from all the hype.
My solution is to turn of the sound between the races & play soothing nature sounds on YouTube. Since adopting this Zen like practice my game has gone up a good 10%.
Your results may vary.:)

[ReplayRandall]

My solution is to turn of the sound between the races & play soothing nature sounds on YouTube. Since adopting this Zen like practice my game has gone up a good 10%.
Your results may vary.:)

Steely Dan or Dave Brubeck works for me....

[ultracapper]

If I could suggest one tweak that I have made that could help every player, regardless of how they handicap, or how much time and effort they put into handicapping, it would be this.

Approach handicapping each race as if it has already been run and the winner already determined. Then look at all your info, whether tidbits you've picked up out of the noise, whether from the printed page, or from calculations derived from raw data, or from visual input, and ask, "Why did this horse win?" 10 horse field, ask 10 times, Why did this horse win? Not, why might it, or how could it, or any kind of prediction statements. Use past presence statements. We do it all the time after the race is run, so just assume the race has already been run, and see which reason you give for the horse already winning makes the most sense. It's hardly the holy grail of handicapping, but it's something we already do. Just change the timing of doing it.

Just another way to look at it.

[dav4463]

If I could suggest one tweak that I have made that could help every player, regardless of how they handicap, or how much time and effort they put into handicapping, it would be this.

Approach handicapping each race as if it has already been run and the winner already determined. Then look at all your info, whether tidbits you've picked up out of the noise, whether from the printed page, or from calculations derived from raw data, or from visual input, and ask, "Why did this horse win?" 10 horse field, ask 10 times, Why did this horse win? Not, why might it, or how could it, or any kind of prediction statements. Use past presence statements. We do it all the time after the race is run, so just assume the race has already been run, and see which reason you give for the horse already winning makes the most sense. It's hardly the holy grail of handicapping, but it's something we already do. Just change the timing of doing it.

Just another way to look at it.


Great post!

I find that when I can make a really good case for over half the field...it's time to pass the race.

I like to start with the top 3 m/l favorites and eliminate one of them. Then I try to make a case for each of the other horses to beat those top two. If I find too many, I pass. If I really like one or two....then I usually have a play.

[Robert Fischer]

Determine The Patsy


https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/myths-legends-scam-scam_artist-con_artist-conmen-scammer-aton5017_low.jpg
Determine The Patsy

Value.

A lot of good suggestions about tweaking your game, and I thought it prudent to touch on this.

By the time you've completed your handicapping, - but before you've structured your wager, the horseplayer must have a valuation step of some sort.

Because of the reality of how the parimutuel system works, the public has to be wrong about something, in order for there to be enough value to overcome takeout, and create an 'overlay'.

I call this step 'determining the patsy', after a great Warren Buffett quote;
"If you’ve been playing poker for half an hour, and you still don’t know who the patsy is, YOU'RE the patsy."

The public has to be wrong about something, and it has to be relatively significant.
Maybe the favorite in the Win pool is vulnerable?
Or, maybe the favorite is very strong, but the 2nd choice on the board(perhaps the 2nd most likely winner) is actually less likely to fill out the exacta than a generously priced stretch-runner?

As long as you can identify that the public is 'wrong' about something, you can move forward and construct a wager with the goal of positive expectation.

[AndyC]

....I find that when I can make a really good case for over half the field...it's time to pass the race.........

I take the exact opposite approach. If I really thought that there were 5 or 6 horses who had a good chance of winning I would let odds dictate strategy.

[jay68802]

I take the exact opposite approach. If I really thought that there were 5 or 6 horses who had a good chance of winning I would let odds dictate strategy.

Depends on your personal betting style. With 5 or 6 contenders, the horizontal bets can become a play, if you have more price horses than favorites. But if you are a win bettor then it might be wise to pass the race.