HONG KONG / SHA TIN -MON 1/30

[Nitro]

Good evening everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
This race date was established because the Chinese New Year started on Sat 1/28.
It’s the year of the rooster, and the lucky numbers are 8 & 88.
So the betting on #8 might be a bit irregular.

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields in ALL 11 races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 11:30 PM SUN. EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 11 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections based on a static tote analysis will follow.

[Nitro]

As usual, I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are 5 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #3 - #5 - #7 - #9
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher than 50%.

R#1 - 1200M (6F) T…......2-9 W/ 5-6-7-8 ...........11:30 PM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & 1 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1600M (8F) T........5-2 W/ 4-1-3-6 ……....12:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #13 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 2000M (10F) T.......5-2 W/ 6-9-3-4........12:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1200M (6F) T........1-2 W/ 3-4-5…….........1:00 AM EST


R#5 - 1200M (6F) T…......5-7 W/ 8-1-2-4........1:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#6 - 1000M (5F) T…......2-1 W/ 3-4-6-7………..2:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #10– Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1400M (7F) T.........11-1 W/ 14-6-5-8.........2:35 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #9 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#8 - 1400M (7F) T.…......1-2 W/ 3-8-5 ……….......3:05 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#9 - 1600M (8F) T.…......1-4 W/ 10-9-7-5 ……....3:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#10 - 1200M (6F) T.…....2-6 W/ 4-9-10-13 ….....4:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)


R#11 - 1600M (8F) T.…....3-1 W/ 6-4-2-5 ….....…...4:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #11 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.

[Nitro]

And Don’t Forget!

If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[Nitro]

R#1 - 2-9 W/ 5-6-7-8
Live Tote Results: 7-11-8-12 – Live Dutch 89% Profit Margin
5th choice Early & 2nd choice $9.50 Live – Lots of early action on the Winner

[AltonKelsey]

Yes!!! Another live tote winner for us!

[Nitro]

R#2 - 5-2 W/ 4-1-3-6 – All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 2-5-1-6 – Dutch 123% Profit Margin
2nd choice $8.10 Early & Live – $26.00 QUIN / $315.20 TRI

[Nitro]

R#3 - 5-2 W/ 6-9-3-4
Live Tote Results: 8-4-9-5 - Dutch 81% Out
Out Early & Live –Some late action on the LS Winner (But it was a Lucky #8 @ 24/1)

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1-2 W/ 3-4-5 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 4-3-5-6 - Dutch 13% Pass
4th choice Early & 3rd $18.00 choice Live – $14.50 QUIN / $221.00 TRI BX

[AltonKelsey]

Huge overlay winner of the 4th. Actual handicapping score, not some tote sillyness. Thanks. Another LIVE TOTE SCORE for the boys

[Nitro]

R#5 - 5-7 W/ 8-1-2-4 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 8-1-7-12 - Dutch 31% Pass
3rd choice $8.10 Early & Live – $68.20 QUIN / $384.20 TRI BX (Lucky #8 @ 4/1 )

[Nitro]

R#6 - 2-1 W/ 3-4-6-7
Live Tote Results: 2-5-3-10 - Dutch 55% Profit Margin
Top choice $3.70 Early & Live- $25.70 QUIN / $153.40 TRI w/Tote Watch #5 got good action

[Nitro]

R#7 - 11-1 W/ 14-6-5-8 -
Live Tote Results: 9-11-13-8 - Dutch 26% Pass
Out Early & 5th (Tote Watch) choice Live - $23.40 QUIN

[Nitro]

R#8 - 1-2 W/ 3-8-5
Live Tote Results: 5-3-9-2 - Dutch 13% Pass
5th choice Early & 2nd choice $5.80 Live – $9.20 QUIN – Winner got solid action

[Tee]

:4: :5:

[Nitro]

R#9 - 1-4 W/ 10-9-7-5 All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 7-9-1-8 - Dutch 31% Pass
5th choice Early & 2nd choice $6.30 Live – $65.80 QUIN & $474.40 TRI BX -

[Nitro]

R#10 - 2-6 W/ 4-9-10-13
Live Tote Results: 7-13-4-2 - Dutch 53% Out
Out Early & Live

[Nitro]

R#11 - 3-1 W/ 6-4-2-5
Live Tote Results: 3-1-8-9 - Dutch 46% Pass
Top choice $5.60 Early & Live – $25.50 QUIN – 1st & 2nd Cold