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lamboguy
01-29-2017, 08:03 PM
opened at Patriots - 3 1/2

now Patriots -3 lay $120 on the underdog

Robert Fischer
01-30-2017, 01:22 AM
Super Bowl Pick PATRIOTS -3 vs FALCONS.
New England has the best coaching. They have 4 Defensive Backs (McCourty, Chung, Butler, Ryan) who have played in their system for several years. Atlanta has the best passing offense in the NFL, and should prove a good match up. I think the betting line will give more points to the Falcons, as the game gets closer to kickoff, so I am 'locking in' now at '-3'...

lamboguy
01-30-2017, 02:41 PM
line now Patriots 3

underdog lay $115

lamboguy
01-31-2017, 08:39 AM
no change, they are still giving away money, its just a question how much you feel like extracting from them.

Robert Fischer
01-31-2017, 01:02 PM
It's always a little scary when you agree with public favorite in the absence of a line adjustment.

lamboguy
02-01-2017, 07:07 AM
wednesday------no change

Nitro
02-01-2017, 03:39 PM
wednesday------no change
Yep. Las Vegas oddsmakers tabbed the Patriots as early 3-point favorites Sunday and the opening over/under was 58, which would be the highest during the Super Bowl era.

Iím still on the Falcons. Iíll take those 3 pts all day long (I really think theyíll win outright).
I just might take the Over too because this could very well be a real shoot-out with over 60 points scored.
Win or lose I think it should be an exciting Super Bowl.

lamboguy
02-01-2017, 10:49 PM
The Patriots have a team total in Super Bowl 51 of 30.5 points. They've scored 30 or more points just once in their eight all-time appearances in the Super Bowl.

- No Super Bowl has featured at least 58 points since Super Bowl 47 between the 49ers and Ravens. That game sailed past the total of 48 points. Only eight of the 50 prior Super Bowls have reached at least 58 points.

- This is only the 10th time that the Super Bowl has featured a total of at least 50. Only three of the 10 have gone over the total.

- This is the first time an AFC team has been favored in the Super Bowl since Super Bowl 48, and if the Patriots do win and cover this game, it will be the first time an AFC team has covered a Super Bowl as a favorite since Super Bowl 41. AFC teams have been favored five times since that point and they are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in said games, including two New England losses in the Super Bowl to the Giants.

- This will be the eighth consecutive Super Bowl with a pointspread of a touchdown or less, and the fifth time in the last seven seasons that the spread in the Super Bowl was three points or fewer. --

lamboguy
02-01-2017, 10:52 PM
now i know why everyone is on Atlanta.

i am staying with the Patriots and like them even more now that i read this!!

EasyGoer89
02-02-2017, 01:34 AM
New England has been in a lot of super bowls and they either lost the SB Or narrowly escaped, they have had many shots to blow someone out or even win by double digits and they didn't do so. They had the all time undefeated team and still couldn't win outright.

Can you make an argument that Atlanta has better players as a whole? I don't know Atl that well, how do they match up player for player position for position?

If you can make ANY case Atl has better athletes and you're getting 3 pts, I think 3 can be considered a decent size spread, I really hate laying points w a team who has had zero adversity in their last 2 cushy home games vs opponents who essentially rolled over and quit. Atl wasn't much better as they weren't really threatened and beat two teams who were no match, but they're getting points, to lay 3 I need proof the favored team has the better athletes, can you guarantee me the pats have better talent at many positions?

thaskalos
02-02-2017, 03:22 AM
Yep. Las Vegas oddsmakers tabbed the Patriots as early 3-point favorites Sunday and the opening over/under was 58, which would be the highest during the Super Bowl era.

Iím still on the Falcons. Iíll take those 3 pts all day long (I really think theyíll win outright).
I just might take the Over too because this could very well be a real shoot-out with over 60 points scored.
Win or lose I think it should be an exciting Super Bowl.

Don't be in a rush. The line will move to 3.5 points as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.

barn32
02-02-2017, 05:22 AM
God I wish I was a bookie. No wonder they all drive Cadillacs.

lamboguy
02-02-2017, 10:25 AM
Patriots -3

lay $120 for the dog


still no money to appear for New England. at some point it should come in, i highly doubt the line will fall below -3 in this game, and probably never make it back to 3 1/2.

i guess people think this is the right line for the game. in my mind i make it -7, of course i can be wrong just like anyone else, but i have a very strong opinion on this one.

EasyGoer89
02-02-2017, 05:06 PM
Don't be in a rush. The line will move to 3.5 points as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.

It's going to take a lot of money to move off 3. Bold prediction.
!

lamboguy
02-02-2017, 05:58 PM
back to the dog lay $115

Nitro
02-02-2017, 07:50 PM
I was just made aware of a very telling statistic that I thought I would pass on.
It seems nearly every quarterback (including Brady) had a losing Super bowl the same year that they were named MVP of the league.

I havenít verified this, but it gives me cause to rethink my ideas about betting this game only because it appears that Matt Ryan will receive this yearís MVP. :eek:

Valuist
02-03-2017, 06:27 PM
Will the line stay at 3?

I suspect not. New England is an ovewhelming public team. Public bettors rarely get involved until the day or the game, or possibly the Saturday before. This will hit 3 1/2 most places, IMO.

lamboguy
02-03-2017, 10:26 PM
friday night, still no change.......the line certainly got me fooled, i thought for sure there would be New England money. not yet. i suspect i am going to hear something about this game in the morning.

keep in mind that this game did open at 3 1/2 and got bet heavily down to 3. does that mean the books are overloaded right now with Falcon money??

maybe

Secondbest
02-03-2017, 11:23 PM
FWIW according to vegasinsider the sharps are on Atlanta and the Public is on the Pats.
They have more tickets on the Pats but more money on Atlanta.

BetHorses!
02-04-2017, 10:01 AM
Will the line stay at 3?

I suspect not. New England is an ovewhelming public team. Public bettors rarely get involved until the day or the game, or possibly the Saturday before. This will hit 3 1/2 most places, IMO.

Hope your right...but I don't think so. Maybe if Mayweather bet 1 million and tweets it....Good Luck

lamboguy
02-04-2017, 01:21 PM
no change

Pats -3

lay $115 on the dog

MutuelClerk
02-04-2017, 10:32 PM
I bet 40.00 on Tevin Coleman to be Super Bowl MVP at 27-1.

Mc990
02-04-2017, 11:00 PM
I'm not so sure the Pats should be favored in this spot although in the interest of balancing action, I understand why they are.

Food for thought...

Atl +1.1 yards per play differential (against 7th toughest schedule)

NE +0.7 yards per play differential (against 29th toughest schedule)

Atl special teams DVOA 8th

NE special teams DVOA 7th

I'm not even sure NE has better coaching... Although I'll probably be in the minority on that one. Regardless things like coaching and experience are tough to quantify...

thaskalos
02-05-2017, 07:24 AM
I'm not so sure the Pats should be favored in this spot although in the interest of balancing action, I understand why they are.

Food for thought...

Atl +1.1 yards per play differential (against 7th toughest schedule)

NE +0.7 yards per play differential (against 29th toughest schedule)

Atl special teams DVOA 8th

NE special teams DVOA 7th

I'm not even sure NE has better coaching... Although I'll probably be in the minority on that one. Regardless things like coaching and experience are tough to quantify...

True...but Atlanta's Yard-Per-Point differential is -2.6...while NE's is -7.1

The NE defense is much more efficient...and requires their opponents to gain more yards in order to score points. It takes 20.8 yards to score a point against NE...while Atlanta allows a point for every 14.8 yards that their opponents gain.

sammy the sage
02-05-2017, 09:40 AM
True...but Atlanta's Yard-Per-Point differential is -2.6...while NE's is -7.1

The NE defense is much more efficient...and requires their opponents to gain more yards in order to score points. It takes 20.8 yards to score a point against NE...while Atlanta allows a point for every 14.8 yards that their opponents gain.

yepper...easier to accomplish w/an easier schedule... ;)

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 09:44 AM
when one looks at this game its The Falcons with a tremendous team vs. The Patriots with an amazing system. usually the guy with the best system doesn't make mistakes because generally speaking the other guys are relying more on instincts. you will find this to be true in almost any walk of life. i see it constantly in horse racing with Bob Baffert horses. he has a great system for getting horses to run, sticks with it and gets results. the same thing with Goldman Sachs when they move markets, its all done systematically.

i certainly can understand why everyone likes the statistics for The Falcons and think they will win. i see the game as a complete mismatch. sometime this evening we will see who is right.

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 10:07 AM
9:00 a.m. EST still no change

Patriots -3

lay $115 for the underdog

RunForTheRoses
02-05-2017, 10:46 AM
One thing to remember is that historically the public bets the underdog, even on the ML, in the SB. I remember the Bills took a lot of action against a superb 49ers team 20 years ago.

I think NE wins by two TDs. ATL may have a better Offense but has no D.NE will stop them a few times and that will be the difference.

As far as the total, the last 5 or so years the NFL has favored an offensive game, I have no strong opinion but I could see the score going over, say NE 35-ATL21.

But we will see.

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 10:46 AM
Will the line stay at 3?

I suspect not. New England is an ovewhelming public team. Public bettors rarely get involved until the day or the game, or possibly the Saturday before. This will hit 3 1/2 most places, IMO.my friend is at The Wynn in Las Vegas, he says that he met these 2 guys in the coffee shop waiting for the sportsbook to open at 7:15, they say they are betting $10,000 a piece on The Falcons. i don't know where all this Patriots money is coming from, they don't seem to change the line no matter who bets what!

RunForTheRoses
02-05-2017, 10:49 AM
FWIW according to vegasinsider the sharps are on Atlanta and the Public is on the Pats.
They have more tickets on the Pats but more money on Atlanta.

I admit I don't follow sports as much as I used to. In the beginning of the season ATL seemed fairly mediocre, perhaps that has changed. Gronk out has to hurt the PATS.

Secondbest
02-05-2017, 11:53 AM
my friend is at The Wynn in Las Vegas, he says that he met these 2 guys in the coffee shop waiting for the sportsbook to open at 7:15, they say they are betting $10,000 a piece on The Falcons. i don't know where all this Patriots money is coming from, they don't seem to change the line no matter who bets what!
On vegasinsider they do a betting update. The guy who runs the Wynn book said he got 10 six figure bets most on the pats with the biggest 300K as the interview was going on another 200K came in on the pats.

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 11:56 AM
pats - 3

lay $135 on the underdog

2 1/2 to follow soon


just as soon as i finished typing this the line went right back to - $115

Secondbest
02-05-2017, 11:58 AM
Their all waiting for Billy Walters to make his move

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 01:03 PM
noon sunday


no change

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 03:15 PM
2:15

no change

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 04:04 PM
3:00

no change

Nitro
02-05-2017, 04:14 PM
Iíve decided to take the Falcons and 3 points, but going with the Under.

It should be quite a game!

GL

PICSIX
02-05-2017, 04:30 PM
Reports: Falcons' center Alex Mack will play in Super Bowl with fractured leg

TiznowfaninNY
02-05-2017, 04:35 PM
Taking the Pats minus 3

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 05:06 PM
4:00

no change

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 05:19 PM
the side has not changed however the total is now 56 1/2 down from 59 a week ago

horses4courses
02-05-2017, 05:54 PM
I'm seeing mostly 57 on the total.
A couple of outfits have shaded the under at 57.5 :eek:

That's pussy bookmaking 101.
Move it the fricking hook - it's only a total, for crissakes :rolleyes:

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 06:04 PM
5:00

no change

Pats -3

lay $115 on the underdog---------

Secondbest
02-05-2017, 06:25 PM
Took New England. -3

thaskalos
02-05-2017, 06:32 PM
If NE covers...I may not be able to replace the leaky roof of my home.

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 06:58 PM
no change

pats - 3

lay $115 for the underdog

total back up to 57


make good choices and best of luck

thaskalos
02-05-2017, 07:31 PM
Good luck to the NE bettors. They'll need it. :)

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 09:06 PM
pats - 4 1/2

total 30 1/2

thaskalos
02-05-2017, 09:26 PM
Lady Gaga is underrated as an entertainer...IMO.

Nitro
02-05-2017, 09:35 PM
And another prediction down the tubes about Lady Gaga supposedly including some political nonsense in her show.

Pure unadulterated entertainment! Good for her! And what a show it was!

Go Falcons!

ReplayRandall
02-05-2017, 09:49 PM
Looks like Lady Gaga was dressed in stolen clothing from Ace Frehley's closet.....

Robert Fischer
02-05-2017, 09:54 PM
Blowout city

Secondbest
02-05-2017, 10:08 PM
When it goes bad it goes bad all the way

PhantomOnTour
02-05-2017, 10:45 PM
And with 5:56 left we finally have a ball game...hoping for some Bama-Clemson type shit...let's go

cj
02-05-2017, 11:07 PM
Win lose or draw, he is the GOAT.

ReplayRandall
02-05-2017, 11:10 PM
Win lose or draw, he is the GOAT.

NEVER EVER QUIT, FIGHT 'TIL THE END...

davew
02-05-2017, 11:13 PM
dang, I should have locked a win with my ATL bet at halftime.

thaskalos
02-05-2017, 11:16 PM
Dan Quinn should be shot. How do you not play for the field goal when you are up 8 with 4 minutes left...and the ball on the NE 22 yard line?

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 11:18 PM
Pats are now - $175 to win the game

EMD4ME
02-05-2017, 11:28 PM
IT'S THE GREATEST COMEBACK SINCE LAZARUS :lol: :lol: :lol:


WOW!!!!!!!!

EMD4ME
02-05-2017, 11:29 PM
no change, they are still giving away money, its just a question how much you feel like extracting from them.

Hope you made a ton of MONEY !

PICSIX
02-05-2017, 11:33 PM
Good luck to the NE bettors. They'll need it. :)
Nice call!

horses4courses
02-05-2017, 11:34 PM
That was a pretty sizable choke. :ThmbDown:

lamboguy
02-05-2017, 11:38 PM
the guy with the best call here was Pandy. he figured the game completely wrong and is going to cashier's window to get his money now because he was very sharp by playing a teaser. i had no idea that anyone alive would book a teaser with the total of the game and the side. those bookmakers deserve to loose and i suspect they got destroyed with all those teaser's they have to pay this evening.

NJ Stinks
02-05-2017, 11:38 PM
The biggest worry before the game was Ryan. Could he lead his team to victory?

The answer is no.

Stick
02-05-2017, 11:45 PM
Dan Quinn should be shot. How do you not play for the field goal when you are up 8 with 4 minutes left...and the ball on the NE 22 yard line?

Why haven't NFL teams figured this out yet. Week after week teams with good X's and O's coaches completely mismanage the clock. If they ran twice more and NE did not call timeout it would have been close to the two minute warning. If NE burns their timeouts you can go up by 11 an they would have to recover an onside kick if it takes NE any time at all to score a touchdown. Freeman may also run for a first down which would kill NE. They need to hire someone who sits in a booth and is in the coaches ear about clock management. Clearly the coaches are not capable of doing it.

Nitro
02-05-2017, 11:46 PM
It looked like it was going to be a blow-out but

That was an incredible game!

Congrats to the Tom Brady and the entire Patriotís team!

ReplayRandall
02-05-2017, 11:46 PM
Roger Goodell presents the SB trophy to Kraft, and Goodell gets his ass loudly BOOED....:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Clocker
02-05-2017, 11:52 PM
Roger Goodell presents the SB trophy to Kraft, and Goodell gets his ass loudly BOOED....:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Another Super Bowl record, for the shortest presentation ceremony by an NFL Commissioner before getting out of the stadium as fast as possible. He handed that trophy to Kraft and beat feet.

ReplayRandall
02-06-2017, 12:02 AM
Donald J. Trump Verified account ‏@realDonaldTrump (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump)

What an amazing comeback and win by the Patriots. Tom Brady, Bob Kraft and Coach B are total winners. Wow!

lamboguy
02-06-2017, 12:05 AM
That was a pretty sizable choke. :ThmbDown:they ran out of gas. obviously the plan was to keep the offense on the field for the pats so that they could wear the Falcons defense down and blow them out in the 2nd half. the problem was the Pats made some very costly mistakes and almost lost the game.

make no mistake about it, The Falcons brought a great team out there today and will be back some day.

EMD4ME
02-06-2017, 12:07 AM
How does one ever swallow this if they are a coach, owner, player or die hard fan?

This is the type of loss that haunts for a lifetime.

Thankfully the horses are my "sport". Those emotionally attached days to sports are looooong gone. I had enough, as a Mets fan :bang: :)

lamboguy
02-06-2017, 12:25 AM
If NE covers...I may not be able to replace the leaky roof of my home.
sorry for your roof good buddy. i got lucky, i can now go back and keep paying off my 2 x wives

Secondbest
02-06-2017, 12:39 AM
Yogi Berra is proved right again.

Grits
02-06-2017, 12:42 AM
Another Super Bowl record, for the shortest presentation ceremony by an NFL Commissioner before getting out of the stadium as fast as possible. He handed that trophy to Kraft and beat feet.

Did you note the booing? It was monumental! He's so despised. :lol:

Oops, Clocker, I didn't note R2 had written the same to you. Sorry. ;)

MutuelClerk
02-06-2017, 12:45 AM
Biggest choke job ever.

Gaga was great!!!!

horses4courses
02-06-2017, 02:20 AM
That TD by NE was huge for Sports Books.
Had the Pats won by a FG in O/T, a 31-28
victory would have meant a huge number of refunds.

Not a disaster profit-wise, but a huge pain in the ass paying out.
It would have been the first time ever that both line and total (-3/59)
landed right on the number. They dodged a bullet. Bizarre.

Marshall Bennett
02-06-2017, 03:48 AM
I went into the game wanting the Falcons to win. When Pat's comeback looked more and more real I couldn't help but jump ship and hope they'd win. Great game, perhaps the best ever even after starting out rather dull, at least for me.

MutuelClerk
02-06-2017, 07:41 AM
Dan Quinn meet Pete Carroll.

lamboguy
02-06-2017, 08:05 AM
Dan Quinn meet Pete Carroll.that's not fair, before the game ever started that team didn't belong on the same field as The Pats, and they did come within a minute of winning the whole deal. that coach brought a completely ready team to the field that simply ran out of gas by chasing around a far superior squad the whole game. if you happened to notice the Falcon offense was on the sidelines most of the game and they had a 25 point lead at one time.

Teach
02-06-2017, 09:02 AM
"The Grab" will rank up there with "The Immaculate Repeption".

BetHorses!
02-06-2017, 09:26 AM
That TD by NE was huge for Sports Books.
Had the Pats won by a FG in O/T, a 31-28
victory would have meant a huge number of refunds.

Not a disaster profit-wise, but a huge pain in the ass paying out.
It would have been the first time ever that both line and total (-3/59)
landed right on the number. They dodged a bullet. Bizarre.


It was a brutal result...the fav and over AGAIN. Just like all post season and every Sunday the entire year

Secondbest
02-06-2017, 09:27 AM
"The Grab" will rank up there with "The Immaculate Repeption".
If we had replay the immaculate receotion would have been overturned

BetHorses!
02-06-2017, 09:28 AM
Dan Quinn should be shot. How do you not play for the field goal when you are up 8 with 4 minutes left...and the ball on the NE 22 yard line?


Correct....run run run FG CHAMPS

MutuelClerk
02-06-2017, 09:56 AM
that's not fair, before the game ever started that team didn't belong on the same field as The Pats, and they did come within a minute of winning the whole deal. that coach brought a completely ready team to the field that simply ran out of gas by chasing around a far superior squad the whole game. if you happened to notice the Falcon offense was on the sidelines most of the game and they had a 25 point lead at one time.

I noticed them late in the game giving away a FG that would have locked this game up. Tom Brady faces a lot better QB's than Bill Belichick does head coaches. Quinn gagged.

MutuelClerk
02-06-2017, 10:03 AM
The same riddle applies to both coaches.

Q: Coach Quinn and Coach Carroll would you two like to win the Super Bowl?

A: No thanks. We'll pass.

upthecreek
02-06-2017, 11:39 AM
I thought this was the best part of the game:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/02/05/george-h-w-bush-gets-standing-ovation-in-super-bowl-coin-toss-that-vegas-loved/?utm_term=.075a8cce1007

PhantomOnTour
02-06-2017, 01:02 PM
My random Super Bowl notes:

>Great seeing George and Barbara Bush doing the coin toss
>Thought it was cool of Lady Gaga to sing a small medley of patriotic songs to kick off the halftime show...nothing political, just patriotic...nice job :ThmbUp:
>Liked a few commercials, esp Snoop & Martha Stewart and Walken & Timberlake...have no clue what products they were hawking :D
>Atlanta made the game winning play when Julio made that all time grab on the sideline. It was a perfect throw too...then, at the dawn of victory, the Falcons sat down to rest...and resting died.
>Runrunrun, kick, win...duh!
>The entire world knew when the Pats won the overtime coin toss that the game was over.

MutuelClerk
02-06-2017, 03:47 PM
If you made a prop bet that there would be a lead change in the fourth quarter do you win the bet?

HoofedInTheChest
02-06-2017, 03:50 PM
If you made a prop bet that there would be a lead change in the fourth quarter do you win the bet?
I believe it would be a push.

horses4courses
02-06-2017, 04:22 PM
It was a brutal result...the fav and over AGAIN. Just like all post season and every Sunday the entire year

I'm pretty sure Nevada books did great.
Solid line, with plenty of money on the dog and the under.
Add that to a winning money line, parlay cards, and prop bets,
they will hold just fine - even with the favorite and over.