Determining FORM

[JJMartin]

What do you look for when trying to determine a horse's form particularly from the pp's? What do you look for on race day? What is a good indicator a trainer is going for a win?

I know all these questions have been asked before in one way or another but perspectives change and new people may contribute novel ideas as well.

[thaskalos]

IMO...the biggest mistake that people make when "determining FORM" is overemphasizing the importance of the horse's last race...even if that last race took place at the proper class level and distance. If the horse's last race looks inexcusably poor, I will look at the horse's PREVIOUS race...and, if that race was sharp, then the horse remains a contender and subject to further investigation.

Regardless of what many people say...the last race ISN'T the best determinant of a horse's form level.

[JJMartin]

IMO...the biggest mistake that people make when "determining FORM" is overemphasizing the importance of the horse's last race...even if that last race took place at the proper class level and distance. If the horse's last race looks inexcusably poor, I will look at the horse's PREVIOUS race...and, if that race was sharp, then the horse remains a contender and subject to further investigation.

Regardless of what many people say...the last race ISN'T the best determinant of a horse's form level.

I can agree with that. Now let's say the last race is the best fit, do you get a higher strike rate on it versus the second race back?

[ReplayRandall]

I can agree with that. Now let's say the last race is the best fit, do you get a higher strike rate on it versus the second race back?

It depends on how many days the second race back is, from today's race...

[Twin Double]

What do you look for when trying to determine a horse's form particularly from the pp's? What do you look for on race day? What is a good indicator a trainer is going for a win?

I know all these questions have been asked before in one way or another but perspectives change and new people may contribute novel ideas as well.

Personally, from my experience, the best answer to this question is to know the trainer. Without exposing my whole playbook online I'll give an example. A lot of my key plays revolve around Shug McGaughey, I've followed this guy for many years and learned a lot of his moves. Great value with this guy if you know how to play him. He likes to use races as training sessions, and what's great about it is that it always darkens the horses form, but when the big moneys on the line, he usually has his horse ready to fire at 5-1 and higher.

As for the claiming game, I use to be a big beleiver in workout times when I was learning the game. I've quickly learned that a lot of these small time trainers like to play games with the clockers. So for the cheaper races I try to see if the class drop or rise makes financial sense.

[Cratos]

What do you look for when trying to determine a horse's form particularly from the pp's? What do you look for on race day? What is a good indicator a trainer is going for a win?

I know all these questions have been asked before in one way or another but perspectives change and new people may contribute novel ideas as well.
When I attempt to assess a horse’s form from its past performances, I try to do it with respect to distance, pace, and stamina as determined by its PPs.

A horse might be in “form” to run an enhanced pace at the sprint distance, but not a sustained stamina route distance.

[EMD4ME]

I'm feeling a Nitro visit coming soon.

The answer will be Hong Kong and the toteboard but with 500 more words :D

[thaskalos]

To me...the "form requirements" must be of a more general nature, and should only eliminate the obvious non-contenders in the race. The bulk of the field should be sorted out by the other, more "precise" handicapping factors.

As a vertical exotics bettor...I am very reluctant to make more than a few "form" eliminations at the very start.

[classhandicapper]

I think each race in a horse's PPs tells you something about how well the horse is likely to run today. The more recent the race, the more significant it is. Within that, you also have to look at surface, distance, extreme trips, layoffs etc...

[upthecreek]

I use my own version of Scotts form factors, along w/ Quirin/Pope and the Tips methodology
I've loosened up my recency rules

[Cratos]

I can agree with that. Now let's say the last race is the best fit, do you get a higher strike rate on it versus the second race back?
As the OP, please define “form” as you understand it to be because the responses in this thread can and will become exponentially ambiguous.

[FrankieFigs]

To me...the "form requirements" must be of a more general nature, and should only eliminate the obvious non-contenders in the race. The bulk of the field should be sorted out by the other, more "precise" handicapping factors.

As a vertical exotics bettor...I am very reluctant to make more than a few "form" eliminations at the very start.

I love this assessment thaskalos. This is where I like to start a race. I have had more success with my handicapping when I narrow it down immediately from the get-go.

[VigorsTheGrey]

What interest me is how to determine "hidden" form...Very often when longshots win, they do not show much on paper to make any reasonable person think they have a chance at the top position....these curious form reversals have always fascinated me....I just don't understand HOW HORSES LIKE THESE (impossible racelines) can and DO win....

[JohnGalt1]

I also base my form factor ratings for William l. Scott.

My ratings are 3 letters.

First rating is last race. If within 7 or fewer days a + rating. An N rating if within 21 days, no workouts, 28 days with workouts. if 21-28 days without a work out a zero.

If over 28 days an L for lay off. If meaningful workouts an L/w, if a good recent 5f work out a rating od L/w!

Second letter is running line. + for up close at all 4 calls. N for even race. And a - for not up close.

Third letter is stretch.

+ if big win of 3+ lengths, unless if the race was on an off track, a maiden claiming race, or if the horse was 2 or more lengths ahead at second call.

If gaining 2+ lengths or positions in stretch and finishes competitive, usually in the money it gets a sg.

If even finish get an N. If loses at least one length gets a O. If dropping in class gets an N. If shortening at least one furlong may also get an N

If not close at any call and loses more ground in stretch gets an N.

If todays race is on a different surface I will write a circled t or d after the form factor line.

My form factor line would look like these N+N, or OON, NigNO, (ng is internal gain also called a Z factor). NNNcd.

I almost always do a pace line from the last race if within 28 days, but if there are reasons to go deeper I will, like class drops, trouble, second race after a layoff if the horse was up close at an early call.

It took me longer to explain my rules than it does to rate an eight horse field. It's really quite simple, and I equally important as my class and pace ratings.

[EMD4ME]

What interest me is how to determine "hidden" form...Very often when longshots win, they do not show much on paper to make any reasonable person think they have a chance at the top position....these curious form reversals have always fascinated me....I just don't understand HOW HORSES LIKE THESE (impossible racelines) can and DO win....

I think a GREAT idea is to pick a recent example and post it. We can all dissect it.

[EMD4ME]

What interest me is how to determine "hidden" form...Very often when longshots win, they do not show much on paper to make any reasonable person think they have a chance at the top position....these curious form reversals have always fascinated me....I just don't understand HOW HORSES LIKE THESE (impossible racelines) can and DO win....

I think a GREAT idea is to pick a recent example and post it. We can all dissect it.

[classhandicapper]

What interest me is how to determine "hidden" form...Very often when longshots win, they do not show much on paper to make any reasonable person think they have a chance at the top position....these curious form reversals have always fascinated me....I just don't understand HOW HORSES LIKE THESE (impossible racelines) can and DO win....

One of the smartest people I know once suggested that whenever a longshot wins you should watch the replay of its last couple of races looking for patterns and trips that people might be missing that you can then use in the future.

[JJMartin]

As the OP, please define “form” as you understand it to be because the responses in this thread can and will become exponentially ambiguous.
Anything that indicates the horse has been entered with intent to win, not just general intent but with confidence.

[pandy]

A lot of horses win off of seemingly dull performances, or performances that would not be classified as "good form." You probably have a better chance of showing a profit betting horses that finished off the board in their last start than horses than come off a solid in-the-money finish.

And even if a horse is not in good form, if the horse is rested for three or four weeks, or even a few months, and comes back with regularly spaced works, the horse could be ready to roll, and we've seen that many horses win off layoffs.

Wide trips have to be carefully examined, especially in two turn races, but also in fast paced sprints. Many longshot winners are coming off of wide trips that look bad on paper but really were tough trips where the jockey didn't push the horse in the stretch because it had no chance to pick up a check.

[jk3521]

A lot of horses win off of seemingly dull performances, or performances that would not be classified as "good form." You probably have a better chance of showing a profit betting horses that finished off the board in their last start than horses than come off a solid in-the-money finish.

The first rule of Dan Geer's "Pro Rated Longshots "system. Out of the money last race.

[Cratos]

Anything that indicates the horse has been entered with intent to win, not just general intent but with confidence.
I define a horse’s current form as its projected PHYSICAL output for the race entered based on its stamina and pace output from prior races; I normalized all adversities it had in prior races.

An example of this was Keen Ice going into this year’s BCC. He had been moved from the Dale Romans barn to Todd Pletcher’s barn and in his last race at Belmont he was a fast closing third and proved to be very sharp in a mile that went in 1:33.27 after being way from the races for 195 days.

No, he didn’t win the BCC and he wasn’t my choice to win (Arrogate was), but he was a live contender to take part which he did.

[thaskalos]

I was brought up reading handicapping books where it was theorized that horses "gradually rounded into form...stayed in top form for a brief while...and then gradually descended OUT of form". And the trainers supposedly "struck while the iron was hot"...and made sure that their horses were well-spotted while in "top form"...before their form deteriorated. "Form" was supposedly the prime consideration in handicapping...because an "unfit" horse wasn't a good win-candidate, even when given a substantial drop in class.

Through my own long and painful investigation...I discovered that the horses were a lot more "durable" than they were rumored to be...that they often went in-and-out of "form" in a matter of days...and that an appreciable drop in class was often enough to resurrect even some horses who were in apparently DULL "form".

To me..."good form" isn't a close-up finish last out...nor does it require a fast recent speed figure. There are many cases where a horse may finish well back in the pack...but I am convinced that it's in great "form". The old definitions no longer apply in the modern game.

[EMD4ME]

Out of form horse:

When they are at an appropriate class level & distance/suface, they get a dream trip and simply come empty. Add in a new inability to change leads, a very poor gallop out and you probably have a super out of form horse.

[thaskalos]

Out of form horse:

When they are at an appropriate class level & distance/suface, they get a dream trip and simply come empty. Add in a new inability to change leads, a very poor gallop out and you probably have a super out of form horse.
And then, this same horse is dropped 2 levels in class...and it wins as if its last past-performance line was a FORGERY.

[EMD4ME]

And then, this same horse is dropped 2 levels in class...and it wins as if its last past-performance line was a FORGERY.

Frustratingly, that happens. It's when they come back at the same level, that I chuck them.

Drop them with a "talented" trainer, you have to pass the race, as they may win at short odds.

This is why I detest claiming races. Watch replays, know stats on trainers, etc. Means little. When the vet says go, they go.

[Twin Double]

I wanted to share that Mark Cramer has a great book on this subject called "Thoroughbred Cycles". He isn't one of my favorite handicapping authors but the book has some good angles. Definitely worth the $5 it goes for online

[thaskalos]

I wanted to share that Mark Cramer has a great book on this subject called "Thoroughbred Cycles". He isn't one of my favorite handicapping authors but the book has some good angles. Definitely worth the $5 it goes for online
What do you mean by "good angles"?

[Twin Double]

What do you mean by "good angles"?

An example, he did a study of 5 year olds being gelded and running for the first time after being gelded and it had a crazy high ROI, longshot angles like that. Been years since I read it but that angle always stayed with me cause I cashed my biggest P4 using it LOL

[EMD4ME]

Imagine how much more you'd remember it if there was a 5th leg to that pick 4? :)

[Twin Double]

Imagine how much more you'd remember it if there was a 5th leg to that pick 4? :)

Good one :)

[Twin Double]

The 5 YO gelding angle is just one of those plays that if your looking for a bomb to put on your ticket, and you notice a horse that fits the situation.

I wouldn't go blindly betting 5YO geldings though, and I'm sure if his study sample was large enough it would be negative ROI

[Nitro]

Anything that indicates the horse has been entered with intent to win, not just general intent but with confidence.Example: An indication of confident intentions (of more than 1 entry for Vertical betting)
Based entirely on the Flow of Money during a typical betting cycle.

Why I previously (and confidenly) posted the following based on the tote analysis:
R#9 – 4-5 W/ 10-1-9 @ 4mins to post
Oaklawn Park SAT 1-22-17 Time: 5:11
Race 9 OFF
Runner M/L Odds Win Place Show Exacta 3 mins 5 mins 10 mins

1 1/15 1/9 X X X X 171 175 189
2 Scr. SCR --- --- --- --- #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
3 1/10 1/25 X X X X 222 241 253
4 1/2 1/1 X X X X 137 145 168
5 1/10 1/5 X X X X 167 179 175
6 1/20 1/24 X X X X 199 213 241
7 1/30 3/20 X X X X 298 306 317
8 1/8 1/7 X X X X 184 201 207
9 1/10 1/9 X X X X 178 183 191
10 1/4 9/2 X X X X 170 169 180
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Pool
Total: 63342 23719 16890 61358 165 173 187
Results:

R #9 = 1-4-10-6 – EX & TRI BX

$2.00 EXACTA – 1-4 - $47.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 1-4-10 - $190.00

[AltonKelsey]

Problem there is the 2 was the VALUE horse, but sadly, scratched.

Is it just me, or do I spend more time trying to figure out what Nitro actually means than putting together a pick 6 on Breeders Cup day?

[NorCalGreg]

Don't know about ya'll....I missed this one. I see some big tip-offs NOW

[Murph]

Adding insult to injury, I had this one tabbed in an angle play (Class drop after 1st call lead) as well. He missed the cut on the LR E2 pace number by going below par. I notice your E1 to E2 figs are tight, showing he carried speed a bit farther. Still a classic pop and stop on first glance. I decided to go to dinner.

That angle is good for mainly lower priced runners, under 4-1 always get a closer look. Pretty frustrating on the re-hash because if I can't make this play, all of the software on the internet isn't going to be able to help me.

Keep 'em coming NCG

[classhandicapper]

And then, this same horse is dropped 2 levels in class...and it wins as if its last past-performance line was a FORGERY.

It's all relative.

When I was at the peak of my physical abilities I would have gotten my head handed to me by any elite high school sprinter. I'm probably in the worst shape of my life right now (to be corrected this spring and summer I hope) but I can still outrun loads of people my own age.

I think level of competition, pace, and position matter too.

When horses are chasing and trying to keep up to superior animals, they are often getting used hard (sometimes even when they are well off the pace). So they wind up quitting badly and often run slower figures than they are capable of running when spotted at a level more in sync with the current ability. On some level this is the kind of thing CJ is trying to measure numerically and that I also try to measure in a more comparative class way.

[pandy]

That's why class drops are so profound. I've had people contact me who were losing and asked me for advice. On more than one occasion I said something like this, "Stop betting favorites and only bet on horses that are dropping in class."

[Stoleitbreezing]

That's why class drops are so profound. I've had people contact me who were losing and asked me for advice. On more than one occasion I said something like this, "Stop betting favorites and only bet on horses that are dropping in class."

I like this statement. Many bettors and horseplayers especially if losing look to the favorite especially those that have been hammered down to 6/5 or worse to dig themselves out of the hole. However, class droppers with other useful attributes like strong early speed or an equipment change of some kind are the better plays.

[classhandicapper]

I should add one other thing. We are horse players looking at PPs. If we are very studious, we may also be looking at workouts, workout patterns, getting familiar with how certain trainers get their horses into shape and what they do after that. But we don't know what's going on behind the scenes.

A filly I own a small piece of ran last week. She had been out for about 2 1/2 months but had a couple of nice breezes in the last few weeks.

What did that mean?

If you were outside handicapper you probably had no idea.

But I knew she missed about a week of training while getting ready for her previously scheduled start because of a minor issue, was galloping every day after that, the trainer does not believe in working horses hard, and the two breezes were designed to make sure she her issue was behind her and she was fit enough to run. But going in we sort of knew she probably wasn't ready to fire an "A" race. She was going to need one. That's a lot of information I don't have about just about every other horse out there. That's the kind of stuff that accounts for some of these ups and downs that look random.

[ReplayRandall]

I should add one other thing. We are horse players looking at PPs. If we are very studious, we may also be looking at workouts, workout patterns, getting familiar with how certain trainers get their horses into shape and what they do after that. But we don't know what's going on behind the scenes.

A filly I own a small piece of ran last week. She had been out for about 2 1/2 months but had a couple of nice breezes in the last few weeks.

What did that mean?

If you were outside handicapper you probably had no idea.

But I knew she missed about a week of training while getting ready for her previously scheduled start because of a minor issue, was galloping every day after that, the trainer does not believe in working horses hard, and the two breezes were designed to make sure she her issue was behind her and she was fit enough to run. But going in we sort of knew she probably wasn't ready to fire an "A" race. She was going to need one. That's a lot of information I don't have about just about every other horse out there. That's the kind of stuff that accounts for some of these ups and downs that look random.

Were those workouts 3F breezes?

[Cratos]

It's all relative.

When I was at the peak of my physical abilities I would have gotten my head handed to me by any elite high school sprinter. I'm probably in the worst shape of my life right now (to be corrected this spring and summer I hope) but I can still outrun loads of people my own age.

I think level of competition, pace, and position matter too.

When horses are chasing and trying to keep up to superior animals, they are often getting used hard (sometimes even when they are well off the pace). So they wind up quitting badly and often run slower figures than they are capable of running when spotted at a level more in sync with the current ability. On some level this is the kind of thing CJ is trying to measure numerically and that I also try to measure in a more comparative class way.
The conundrum in horserace handicapping is epitomize within your post. The title of this thread is “Determining Form”, but somehow it has wandered onto set of variables that might be incidental to a horse’s winning ability, but is not an inherent factor in its form determination.

There is a distinction in analytics between nonparametric variables and parametric variables and it is not just a difference, but a distinctive difference.

Class in general in horseracing is a nonparametric variable meaning that you cannot put a universal quantity on it. For example, a $25,000 claimer is not generally in the same race performance class at all race tracks although the value of $25,000 (a parametric) is the same.

[classhandicapper]

Were those workouts 3F breezes?

Back to back 4F.

[JohnGalt1]

I was brought up reading handicapping books where it was theorized that horses "gradually rounded into form...stayed in top form for a brief while...and then gradually descended OUT of form". And the trainers supposedly "struck while the iron was hot"...and made sure that their horses were well-spotted while in "top form"...before their form deteriorated. "Form" was supposedly the prime consideration in handicapping...because an "unfit" horse wasn't a good win-candidate, even when given a substantial drop in class.

Through my own long and painful investigation...I discovered that the horses were a lot more "durable" than they were rumored to be...that they often went in-and-out of "form" in a matter of days...and that an appreciable drop in class was often enough to resurrect even some horses who were in apparently DULL "form".

I've read the same books.

20-40 years ago horses ran sans Lasix and did not have multiple lay offs to contend with.

I used to look for improving horses. Bob McKnight loved the angle of routers improving positions of call and finishes from next to last to last race. It was easier to see and was more powerful if a few races in a row than now with all the lay off lines.

I enjoy cheaper and mid-level tracks more because they run more claiming races and those horses do run more often than stakes race horses.

[ultracapper]

The final paragraph of post 36 and all of paragraph 37 should be really digested and contemplated by any and all handicappers, IMO. Really solid contributions that seem so simple and logical, but sometimes it's impossible to take the obvious too seriously. Both those points should be taken very seriously, and taken to heart. Those are two very, very important points made in those two statements, IMO, and I'm thankful to be reminded again

[EMD4ME]

In form: Possible and likely great sign: Horses who bust out of the gate fast in 1st stride (compared to prior starts)

Out of form: Horses who lose speed/break slower (compared to other starts)

[upthecreek]

That's why class drops are so profound. I've had people contact me who were losing and asked me for advice. On more than one occasion I said something like this, "Stop betting favorites and only bet on horses that are dropping in class."
Just take a look @ the #10 A couple so-so races in SPL. Wt. company , dropped in for $20,000 and won @ 4-1

[NorCalGreg]

Another big winner today @ Tampa--showing the 2-call blowout--then fade. This is textbook ...a handicapper could make a living on this pattern right here:
.

[NorCalGreg]

Through much research--painstaking trial and error...I have concluded that

notorious loser SPA TOWN PARADE ...trained by the perennially hapless

EDUARDO JONES--will win one of his next two starts----paying over

$100 to win.
.

[Prof.Factor]

NCG,
STP runs today.
Don't think today is THE day. I'm leaning toward Aqueduct main. We shall see.