Track Post Position ROI

[Ray2000]

FYI
Percent Return On Wagering for some tracks by post position (2016)
Random sampling, 500 races minimum.
+$100 Winners can distort the high end.

[Longshot6977]

FYI
Percent Return On Wagering for some tracks by post position (2016)
Random sampling, 500 races minimum.
+$100 Winners can distort the high end.

Very Interesting Ray. Thanks. I wonder why pp2 at BigM has a positive ROI squeezed in between two high negative ROI pp's. Maybe it has more longshots coming in? And I'll be checking out pp6 at Hawthorne more closely in the future.
I realize this chart is basically ROI based and not just simple winners. Do you know what is the highest longshot included?

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

FYI
Percent Return On Wagering for some tracks by post position (2016)
Random sampling, 500 races minimum.
+$100 Winners can distort the high end.

Those numbers don't seem possible. While we knew the bottom line would be negative, those negatives seem waaaaaaaaaaaay to high.

In the past, 8-posts on half mile tracks had a positive ROI. The key was waiting out all of the losing for the telephone numbers that eventually happened.

[JOE M]

seems odd, but post #5 at M1 was always the top post yet i find it to be in 4th place on this chart.

[LottaKash]

Thanks Ray, good handicapping "brain food"...I like :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Ray2000]

Longshot6977
The 2 post did make the top 10 payoffs 3 times in my sampling and does distort the stats.

Date Race Odds Post Field Win Paid
20160319 4 89.7 9 9 $181.40
20151226 2 63.5 9 11 $129.00
20160227 9 52 2 10 $106.00
20160611 9 48.9 4 9 $99.80
20160520 8 48 2 9 $98.00
20160604 5 43.5 1 10 $89.00
20160226 12 42.9 9 10 $87.80
20160205 6 42.4 7 10 $86.80
20160206 12 39.6 7 10 $81.20
20151121 14 39.4 2 10 $80.80


Jess

There is a fairly high error rate, especially on the outside posts which have fewer starts than the rail.
I don't have access to the charts for the entire year. If somebody does I would love seeing how my 500+ race sample compares.



JOE
Win percent for these same 663 BigM races were:
PP1 PP2 PP3 PP4 PP5 PP6 PP7 PP8 PP9 PP10
10% 13% 12% 10% 15% 18% 12% 10% 8% 5%

Fairly close to USTA posted Win % for last 422 races
9% 12% 10% 11% 10% 17% 13% 11% 9% 8%

So you're right on for Post 5 and 6 have best Win percentage.


LK
Thx again John

[JOE M]

Thanks Ray

[pandy]

Those numbers don't seem possible. While we knew the bottom line would be negative, those negatives seem waaaaaaaaaaaay to high.

In the past, 8-posts on half mile tracks had a positive ROI. The key was waiting out all of the losing for the telephone numbers that eventually happened.


Post 8 used to be my bread and butter. Now, I haven't bet a horse from post 8 on a half mile track in over two years.

[VigorsTheGrey]

FYI
Percent Return On Wagering for some tracks by post position (2016)
Random sampling, 500 races minimum.
+$100 Winners can distort the high end.

Just curious, is it possible to easily sum and display for us, the columns to arrive at an overall average percentage for ALL tracks shown or in database, a national average, or better yet a North American average per post position...?

[Ray2000]

Just curious, is it possible to easily sum and display for us, the columns to arrive at an overall average percentage for ALL tracks shown or in database, a national average, or better yet a North American average per post position...?
Yes, but it would be more meaningful to group the tracks into half mile ovals, 5/8ths tracks and mile tracks.

I'll post that later.

[LottaKash]

Just curious, is it possible to easily sum and display for us, the columns to arrive at an overall average percentage for ALL tracks shown or in database, a national average, or better yet a North American average per post position...?

Vigors, I am not trying to steal Ray's Thunder, but I thought I was just share some of my thoughts on this matter...

While the notion of having your questions answered might be very interesting, but my truth says that it would be a waste of time, not a big waste, but I don't think it would be any too fruitful in the handicapping of things...

I have spent many years studying the idiosyncrasies about the post position pros and cons for any number of specific tracks...Imo tho, each track while geometrically similar to each other as to the layouts, it still amazes me how one ,say, a 5/8 of a mile, 1/2 mile or 7/8 and 1-mile tracks, can be so different on how the horses finish according to each of any track handicapped, and altho they share the same shape and points of call, the effects and differences in post postion can be an eye opener, ..

Trackmaster posts the significance of each post effectiveness for each and every race and track, and I have found that by obeying those stats serves me very well when I consider a play...It is quite remarkable that the #4 post at one particular track, can be a blessing or it can be poison at another similar layout...

Imo, it definitely pays to understand the uniqueness and effectivenessof each and every track and their PPs, especially when considering "shippers", as well as an aide when trying to understand your losses...

[Ray2000]

LottaKash is right but it was easy enough to get the averages for the 3 types of tracks

Half Mile, 4 turns
BR
FHLD
FLMD
LON
MR
NFLD
STGA
YR
RIDC

5/8ths Mile, 3 turns
DD
MEA
MVR
PCD
PPK

One mile, 2 turns
BigM
CALX
HAW
HOP
MOH
WDB

I also put in the Starts, Win percentages,
and % Dev (Trackmaster type Post rating)

[VigorsTheGrey]

LottaKash is right but it was easy enough to get the averages for the 3 types of tracks

Half Mile, 4 turns
BR
FHLD
FLMD
LON
MR
NFLD
STGA
YR
RIDC

5/8ths Mile, 3 turns
DD
MEA
MVR
PCD
PPK

One mile, 2 turns
BigM
CALX
HAW
HOP
MOH
WDB

I also put in the Starts, Win percentages,
and % Dev (Trackmaster type Post rating)

Thanks Ray....I'm glad you were able to easily break these out by oval size and turns...I can now easily see why Pandy doesn't bet the 8 post at half mile tracks....I can see how LottaKash is right....but I do believe also that what you came up here is significant as well....thanks again....

[pandy]

It's a shame that there's this post position bias, but if you're going to bet harness races, you have to do what you have to do. I was thinking about it, and I think I've actually only bet one horse from post 7 on a half mile track over the past two years. I wrote this in my column a few times, don't bet posts 7 and 8 on half mile tracks, and I followed my own advice. I do use them underneath in trifectas, which is my favorite bet on half mile tracks.

[Ray2000]

.....I do use them underneath in trifectas, which is my favorite bet on half mile tracks.
That's a good stradegy, using the outside post on the half-mile as a popper in the exotics.
Rarely do they get the lead with little effort but could get sucked along with cover after yielding the front.

BTW
Rideau Carleton is a 5/8s mile track, I listed it in the wrong group.

[pandy]

In February Yonkers will be going back to the shorter stretch, which will make it easier for the outside posts to leave...we'll see how that effects the posts. It should help Jason Bartlett, who is better than the other drivers at leaving.