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PowerUpPaynter
01-22-2017, 09:54 PM
Who is everyone's top 5 as we stand here mid January?

Mine is as follows:

1. Classic Empire
2. Mastery
3. McCraken
4. Gormley
5. Practical Joke

Sleepers im watching in random order: Irish War Cry, Fact Finding, American Anthem, Gunnevera


Hard to gauge a lot of these 3 year olds thus far seems like there has been a decent amount of wet tracks some of the races of interest have run on thus far.

ReplayRandall
01-22-2017, 10:23 PM
Who is everyone's top 5 as we stand here mid January?

Mine is as follows:

1. Classic Empire
2. Mastery
3. McCraken
4. Gormley
5. Practical Joke

Sleepers im watching in random order: Irish War Cry, Fact Finding, American Anthem, Gunnevera


Hard to gauge a lot of these 3 year olds thus far seems like there has been a decent amount of wet tracks some of the races of interest have run on thus far.

You'd better add Uncontested and Mo Town to your list...

PowerUpPaynter
01-22-2017, 10:38 PM
You'd better add Uncontested and Mo Town to your list...

I got my eye on them but for me at this point not top 5 and not really 'sleepers' both would end up between 5-10 for me

Spalding No!
01-25-2017, 04:49 AM
With an eye towards some longshots:

1. So Conflated
2. Wild Shot
3. Talk Logistics
4. Untrapped
5. Guest Suite

By the way, going through the TC nominees, I found a 4th horse in this crop with the Claiborne mare Narrate in the female line. The Coolmore colt Whitecliffsofdover has her as the 3rd dam (Preach is the 2nd). So she on the bottom sides of Whitecliffsofdover, Wild Shot, Untrapped, and Haul Anchor.

johnhannibalsmith
01-25-2017, 12:54 PM
...
By the way, going through the TC nominees, I found a 4th horse in this crop with the Claiborne mare Narrate in the female line. The Coolmore colt Whitecliffsofdover has her as the 3rd dam (Preach is the 2nd). So she on the bottom sides of Whitecliffsofdover, Wild Shot, Untrapped, and Haul Anchor.

:ThmbUp:

That's pretty neat.

PowerUpPaynter
01-25-2017, 12:59 PM
With an eye towards some longshots:

1. So Conflated
2. Wild Shot
3. Talk Logistics
4. Untrapped
5. Guest Suite

By the way, going through the TC nominees, I found a 4th horse in this crop with the Claiborne mare Narrate in the female line. The Coolmore colt Whitecliffsofdover has her as the 3rd dam (Preach is the 2nd). So she on the bottom sides of Whitecliffsofdover, Wild Shot, Untrapped, and Haul Anchor.


What is the significance of Narrate in the female side?... just curious still learning about pedigree

Spalding No!
01-25-2017, 01:45 PM
What is the significance of Narrate in the female side?... just curious still learning about pedigree
I would rank Narrate a "Blue Hen" mare considering the number of stakes winners and top sires that descend from her. Furthermore, Narrate herself descends from a long line of great producers. Her dam State produced multiple stakes winners as did her granddam. Her 3rd dam produced the great Round Table.

The interesting thing with Untrapped and Wild Shot is that Narrate shows up on both the top and bottom sides of their respective pedigrees. This was called the "Rasmussen Factor" during the heyday of dosage profiles and the like during the '80s and '90s, and was considered desirable for classic horses. Technically, Wild Shot has the RF through Narrate's daughter Preach. Not sure if many people hold much stock in it anymore.

PowerUpPaynter
01-25-2017, 02:12 PM
I would rank Narrate a "Blue Hen" mare considering the number of stakes winners and top sires that descend from her. Furthermore, Narrate herself descends from a long line of great producers. Her dam State produced multiple stakes winners as did her granddam. Her 3rd dam produced the great Round Table.

The interesting thing with Untrapped and Wild Shot is that Narrate shows up on both the top and bottom sides of their respective pedigrees. This was called the "Rasmussen Factor" during the heyday of dosage profiles and the like during the '80s and '90s, and was considered desirable for classic horses. Technically, Wild Shot has the RF through Narrate's daughter Preach. Not sure if many people hold much stock in it anymore.

do any of them combine with Buckpasser in the X?

Spalding No!
01-25-2017, 02:38 PM
do any of them combine with Buckpasser in the X?
I'm not familiar with the whole X factor theory, but Buckpasser is in an X passing position in 3 out of the 4 horses. Only Haul Anchor does not have Buckpasser in a passing position (though Buckpasser does appear in his pedigree).

Raider
01-25-2017, 08:24 PM
I'm not familiar with the whole X factor theory, but Buckpasser is in an X passing position in 3 out of the 4 horses. Only Haul Anchor does not have Buckpasser in a passing position (though Buckpasser does appear in his pedigree).

Number Kyd trail races to date: 13
Number of entrants in Kyd trail races to date: 115
Number of entrants with BXPF(Buckpasser X Passing Factor): 33

Duplicate horses entrants in race are not factored, only total.

BXPF Winners 7
Place 5
how 6
trifecta 2
Exacta 3


What are the stats for Narrate? Two of your five have BXPF, Wild Shot and Guest Suite. Since the other three have not ran a points race(to the best of my knowledge), I haven't tracked them. Untrapped(who did run a points race, opps) does look intresting, but does not have BXPF.

I am like you PowerUp. This is the first year I have tracked the breeding side of it. Its too soon for me to have a top five, don't know if we have seen the winner yet. Give me a month.

PowerUpPaynter
01-27-2017, 06:17 PM
hmm i watched the Kentucky Jockey Club over again to watch McCraken and noticed the 2nd place horse ran a nice race... Wild Shot

Then I watched the Breeders Futurity and the 3rd place horse about 4 lengths behind Classic Empire ran a nice race... Wild Shot again.

and hes currently 99-1 (probably more) in the futures pool. Thats worth 5 or 10 bucks as a wild long shot...

BCOURTNEY
01-27-2017, 08:32 PM
Mastery

PowerUpPaynter
01-27-2017, 09:31 PM
Mastery


One thing im noticing is some people LOVE Mastery. I dont know, I agree at this point he is top 3 no question but then part of me thinks hes just another Mor Spirit... By the way, has Mor Spirit finished last years derby yet?

BCOURTNEY
01-28-2017, 02:13 AM
One thing im noticing is some people LOVE Mastery. I dont know, I agree at this point he is top 3 no question but then part of me thinks hes just another Mor Spirit... By the way, has Mor Spirit finished last years derby yet?

Probably my favorite based almost entirely on pedigree currently, San Felipe or the Rebel Stakes (probably San Felipe) will be informative.

tanner12oz
01-29-2017, 07:28 PM
I'm.on.the mastery bandwagon as well

PowerUpPaynter
01-29-2017, 08:11 PM
I think there is a chance American Anthem turns out to be Baffert's best 3 year old

Raider
01-30-2017, 04:37 AM
I think there is a chance American Anthem turns out to be Baffert's best 3 year old
if he skips the RBL at SA, and goes for the San Felipe, and the SA Derby, I think that Baffert thinks so as well. Still early, this month should give us better races, and a clear picture. IMO

sbcaris
01-31-2017, 01:44 PM
My top five as of now are:

Classic Empire
Guest Suite
Irish War Cry
Sonic Mule
Fact Finding

The above in my opinion have the best breeding to win at 10 furlongs and have also shown some good races to date.

My basis for the above pedigrees are: The RAN sire line, Buckpasser in the X position and strong conduit mares in tail female

The above colts become stronger contenders when they finish fast in major 9 furlong prep races.

PowerUpPaynter
01-31-2017, 07:18 PM
I like Fact Finding a lot too just wish he ran some faster beyers in his win.


seems to be a bunch of front running style horses this year...

sbcaris
02-02-2017, 09:37 AM
Fast Beyer figs are not necessary in January or February. California Chrome never had a higher Beyer figure than s 91 all the way to March when he did a 108 in the San Felipe and then followed that up with a 107 in the SA Derby. Orb never ran higher than an 83 until the Fountain of Youth in February. Ill Have Another never ran a higher Beyer figure than an 84 all the way to the Rober E Lewis which was run on Feb 4, 2012. Big Brown raced a 90 Beyer on turf as a 2 year old and then in his next start on March 5th runs a 106 in an allowance mile.

Main point: Many 3 year olds improve by leaps and bounds and some seemingly overnight in the maturing process.

Spalding No!
02-08-2017, 01:06 PM
What is the significance of Narrate in the female side?... just curious still learning about pedigree
Now there are 5 Derby prospects with Narrate in the female side.

Hedge Fund broke his maiden by open lengths around two turns at Gulfstream this past Saturday in his 2nd career start. He is a half brother to Stanford, who was just edged in the Poseidon on the Pegasus Cup undercard.

The 5th dam is Narrate, with the bottom tracing to her through her daughter Yarn, the dam of Tale of the Cat and the granddam of Johannesburg.

BCOURTNEY
03-13-2017, 06:06 PM
Probably my favorite based almost entirely on pedigree currently, San Felipe or the Rebel Stakes (probably San Felipe) will be informative.

My Top 5 is still:
Mastery

jimmyb
03-14-2017, 02:05 PM
I took Irish War Cry in futures betting back in November. Seems like a lot of inconsistent runners this year and hard for me to choose.

Spalding No!
03-14-2017, 02:55 PM
I took Irish War Cry in futures betting back in November. Seems like a lot of inconsistent runners this year and hard for me to choose.
This new trend of light prep campaigns for the Triple Crown is making it tough to figure out (1) who is going to show up in the classics and (2) who is going to be in decent form on raceday.

Back in the day, a horse could throw in a race like the one Irish War Cry put in last out and recover enough to erase most of the concern with dud performance by Derby day.

For example, in 1994 Holy Bull, fresh off a sharp win in the Hutcheson, was dueled into oblivion in the Fountain of Youth. However, he came back and not only took the Florida Derby by open lengths but the Blue Grass as well. He obviously tanked in the Derby itself, but there was no doubt that he belonged in the race nor that he was in razor sharp form.

Other horses who put in duds during the prep season were Skip Away, Hansel, Funny Cide, Go For Gin, Real Quiet, Afleet Alex, Tejano Run, Louis Quatorze, Tank's Prospect, etc.

f2tornado
03-14-2017, 03:02 PM
I'm not zeroed in on any yet but if I had to pick five... I have McCraken covered in the Future wagers but his sire line doesn't inspire. Neither did that of Nyquist however. He does have the Buckpasser. So did Nyquist.

Hard not to like Gunnevera. I like the Bold Ruler sire line and he's got the Buckpasser. Also seemingly improving each race and I'm always a fan of JC if he stays up.

I'm not dismissing Irish War Cry just yet but the FOY was depressing. So was Classic Empire's return race. Raise A Native line has dominated the Derby and this one too has the Buckpasser. His dosage profile leaves a little to be desired on the stamina side and the next prep might tell the tale.

Petrov is one I want to see at 9F. Bold Ruler line on top, In Reality line on bottom. He's got the Buckpasser as well. One of the few that has one of Stanley's conduit mares in tail female; Altoviscar. Could be a price play.

American Anthem is another Raise A Native and Buckpasser but Baffert alone makes this one intriguing. We will know more about this one soon.