Super Bowl LI

[horses4courses]

What will the line be on NE/ATL?

I'm guessing NE -7.....total 55

[Zaf]

That seems about right.

Z

[Marshall Bennett]

You're kidding. I'm thinking dead even. Nobody could have beat Falcons on this day. Who knows in two weeks.
If team stays healthy I'd take Falcons and x pts and run with it.

[horses4courses]

You're kidding. I'm thinking dead even. Nobody could have beat Falcons on this day. Who knows in two weeks.
If team stays healthy I'd take Falcons and x pts and run with it.

The Pats and Brady have to be favorite.
It's anywhere from 4 to 7.

[Zaf]

You're kidding. I'm thinking dead even. Nobody could have beat Falcons on this day. Who knows in two weeks.
If team stays healthy I'd take Falcons and x pts and run with it.

I agree I would take the points if the spread was 4 or over. Falcons have come a long way they were 80-1 after week 1.

Z

[horses4courses]

I agree I would take the points if the spread was 4 or over. Falcons have come a long way they were 80-1 after week 1.

Z

Yeah.....4 is probably a more realistic number.
Atlanta has a lot of athletes in that team.
Brady and Bellichick always take a lot of money, though.

[Robert Fischer]

Can the Falcons play some man-to-man defense?

[Secondbest]

NE. -3. OU 57 1/2

[_______]

You're kidding. I'm thinking dead even. Nobody could have beat Falcons on this day. Who knows in two weeks.
If team stays healthy I'd take Falcons and x pts and run with it.

I think you are underestimating the impact injuries in Green Bay's secondary had on this result. I expected Atlanta to score a lot of point today and they did. I expect they will score a lot less against New England.

[pandy]

The line will probably open New England -3.5 and the points will be 59.5

No question that New England's defense is much better than Green Bays, but Atlanta's offense is sensational. The STeelers zone defense was horrible today.

The Falcon's defense is very young, not that big, but they're quick, and much improved. It should be interesting.

I don't think there's any question which team has more talent. The Falcons have considerably more talent and athletic ability. But, the Patriots routinely beat teams that have more speed and star players and have been ever since Belichick became their coach. Besides their amazing won loss record during that time span, one of the most amazing stats is that they are 14 and 6 when Tom Brady didn't play, and they won 8 games in a row with a second string QB (two different second string QBs, two different seasons) during the Belichick-Brady era. Concrete proof that the Patriots don't have to have the best players on the field to win.

[Secondbest]

NE. -3. OU 57 1/2
Just rechecked
NE. -3. OU Bet up to 59

[Marshall Bennett]

Typically doesn't move much if any till gametime. I'll take the 3. :)

[pandy]

It's going to be interesting seeing how Belichick defenses Atlanta. He usually doubles the star, which in this case would be Julion Jones, but the Falcons aren't like most teams that have a superstar receiver, because they have a lot of other weapons. Normally with a team that has a powerful passing attack, Belichick will put more guys in coverage and tempt them to run. But the Falcons are 5th in the league in rushing. It could be that he'll try blitzing more. The blitz can be effective against both the run and pass. But the Falcons have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.

[Maximillion]

It's going to be interesting seeing how Belichick defenses Atlanta. He usually doubles the star, which in this case would be Julion Jones, but the Falcons aren't like most teams that have a superstar receiver, because they have a lot of other weapons. Normally with a team that has a powerful passing attack, Belichick will put more guys in coverage and tempt them to run. But the Falcons are 5th in the league in rushing. It could be that he'll try blitzing more. The blitz can be effective against both the run and pass. But the Falcons have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.

In the Superbowls against the Rams and the Bills he was practically begging those teams to run, and neither could resist showing off their high powered passing attacks.I agree it should be interesting..does he do the same thing again?...and if he does can the Falcons be patient?

[pandy]

In the Superbowls against the Rams and the Bills he was practically begging those teams to run, and neither could resist showing off their high powered passing attacks.I agree it should be interesting..does he do the same thing again?...and if he does can the Falcons be patient?


I'm pretty sure I'm betting the Falcons, but I have to do a little more handicapping. I bet against the Patriots in the Super Bowl three times and won all three bets, although they won one of those games (won but didn't cover against the Eagles). It's not like you can't beat them, but any team that plays them has to limit mistakes.

[EasyGoer89]

The line will probably open New England -3.5 and the points will be 59.5

No question that New England's defense is much better than Green Bays, but Atlanta's offense is sensational. The STeelers zone defense was horrible today.

The Falcon's defense is very young, not that big, but they're quick, and much improved. It should be interesting.

I don't think there's any question which team has more talent. The Falcons have considerably more talent and athletic ability. But, the Patriots routinely beat teams that have more speed and star players and have been ever since Belichick became their coach. Besides their amazing won loss record during that time span, one of the most amazing stats is that they are 14 and 6 when Tom Brady didn't play, and they won 8 games in a row with a second string QB (two different second string QBs, two different seasons) during the Belichick-Brady era. Concrete proof that the Patriots don't have to have the best players on the field to win.

Maybe the Pats can poison the steeler food and pull the fire alarms again? Lol

[Zaf]

Maybe the Pats can poison the steeler food and pull the fire alarms again? Lol

They just always seem to have the edge :D

Z

[lamboguy]

Pats beat the second best team in the playoffs today for breakfast. the Falcons will be their lunch in a big way.

Pats laying the 3 should get it done

[Zaf]

Steelers were the second best team in the playoffs ?

Z

[_______]

I have the Pats +260 to beat the Falcons in the Super Bowl and look forward to betting what I assume will be Atlanta +135 or so to lock in a profit.

If the line is 59, I might gamble on the under.

[NJ Stinks]

Pats beat the second best team in the playoffs today for breakfast. the Falcons will be their lunch in a big way.

Pats laying the 3 should get it done

Dallas beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in November and the Cowboys lost a couple less games than the Steelers.

Also, NE doesn't get called for squat up there. Getting away from home is going to bring flags for defensive holding/interference and other calls the Pats are immune to at home.

[lamboguy]

Steelers were the second best team in the playoffs ?

Zof course they were. The Falcons are a good squad, but they played a cupcake game vs. The Packers. The Pack had no player's outside of their quarterback and the Falcons rolled right over them. top to bottom The Steelers had a very respectable team and played right with The Pats for the whole first half until they ultimately caved in.

no one wants to bet on horses that just beat up an easy field by 10 lengths that have to step up. usually those horses get slaughtered. the same thing is going to happen to The Falcons when they meet up with The Pats.

if you don't like money just bet on The Falcons and you will certainly have less of it to worry about.

for those that have a very short memory, i preached right on this board for people to get on a plane to London with suitcases filled with cash to bet on Donald Trump. at the end, Trump was a 7-1 underdog. i can tell not to many payed proper attention.

[pandy]

I made my first Super Bowl bet today, used 5dimes, which had a better over/under line compared to bookmaker. A 7 point teaser, Falcons +10, under 66.

[Marshall Bennett]

Who would be so foolish to offer that?

[PhantomOnTour]

Once again we have Big O vs Big D...and we know how that almost always turns out.

Pats will win

[pandy]

Who would be so foolish to offer that?


It was a teaser, you get 7 points and both sides have to hit. So in other words, for me to win my bet, the Falcons have to lose by less than 10 points and the final score has to be less than 66 points. If I lose, I pay a 20% vig instead of 10%.

[lamboguy]

what happens to this bet in the event that the Falcons win by exactly 10?

[pandy]

what happens to this bet in the event that the Falcons win by exactly 10?


Ties lose with teasers.

[Secondbest]

Heard this on espn
Number one scoring offense has played the number one scoring defense 5 times in the super bowl.Defense is 4-1

[NJ Stinks]

for those that have a very short memory, i preached right on this board for people to get on a plane to London with suitcases filled with cash to bet on Donald Trump. at the end, Trump was a 7-1 underdog. i can tell not to many payed proper attention.

How can we forgot about your love for Crazy Horse? You posted it about 300 times in the last year or so. :rolleyes:

Let's just say I'm rooting against you again in the Super Bowl. Only this time I've got the dog.

[EasyGoer89]

Ties lose with teasers.

I think Vegas gives you a refund on a tie.

[lamboguy]

I think Vegas gives you a refund on a tie.i just called a place in Nevada to find their rules. in teaser's a loser and a tie gets a refund and a winner and a tie also gets a refund.

i have gone my whole life without teasers and i think i will never be to interested in them.

[burnsy]

Steelers were the second best team in the playoffs ?

Z

I got a kick out of that one too. They were pretty bad, as were much of the AFC teams. When you have to kick 6 field goals in a playoff game, vs KC, how good can you be?

My first thought is to take the points and run on this one. I just think the level of play was higher in the NFC. Atlanta had to play Seattle and Green Bay, the Pats played Houston, a team that probably should not of even made it (their offense stinks) and a team that had to kick 6 field goals to win the week before.

The tournament for the AFC title was a stinker. The Patriots looked ok yesterday but the game vs Houston was nothing to write home about. Pittsburg could not get out of their own way in the Red Zone for both games. Somehow they are better than Atlanta, Dallas, or Green Bay? He's out of his mind with that statement. Was he watching all of these games? Because I was, and Pittsburg was probably not as good as Green Bay, Dallas, Atlanta or even Seattle.

The line is almost telling you to take the + points, all these people guessed 7 but its 3 because they know the public will bet the Patriots no matter what. My gut tells me that the whales are going to hammer Atlanta....so they ain't going to give no touch down. These things can go either way off of mistakes and emotion but I'm thinking the smart money is going on the Falcons.

[lamboguy]

i guess the line speaks in different way's to whomever is looking at it. the line that i made before watching all the teams involved would have been Patriots -6 !/2. the line came out at 3 1/2 and got immediately bet down to -3.

obviously the line makers watched both games and crunched their numbers and knew that if they put the line up at 6 they would have gotten lopsided action on the underdog. they put up a line where they felt they are going to get 2 way action. betting sports is all about perception. the reality is we all have our opinion's and must react accordingly.

if you think you have a worthy opinion, you must step up to the plate and make it count.

good luck to you and your educated decisions on how to wager on this one if you choose to do so. i just posted my opinion and i will act on it.

[Nitro]

I tend to agree with Burnsy’s comment on this one.

Although I really liked the Patriots at home against the Steelers, I also witnessed a Falcon team that literally dismantled the Packers.
One of only 2 teams to beat the Patriots (at home) this year was the Seahawks in a very close game. However, the Falcons spanked them too. Although the Patriot Defense is good, I wouldn’t call it great. It’s going to take a great Defense to slow down an Offense like the Falcons. It sort of reminds me of a few of those great 49’er Offences.

So, I’m going to parlay this past Sunday’s winnings and take the Falcons getting points and possibly even take the Over depending on what the line is. I think the Falcons can win this outright. And as far as Karma goes: What a better way to break-in their new stadium than with a Super bowl Championship banner.

[pandy]

I think Vegas gives you a refund on a tie.

It depends on which book you play and the odds. For instance, some bookmakers will give you an option "ties lose" but you get better odds.

[pandy]

i just called a place in Nevada to find their rules. in teaser's a loser and a tie gets a refund and a winner and a tie also gets a refund.

i have gone my whole life without teasers and i think i will never be to interested in them.


I usually play 10 point three team teasers, not the 7 point two bet teasers and I've done well with this bet. I post them on my website, this year I was 12-5 plus $595.00 betting mostly $100 bets, with one winning $200 bet and four winning $50 bets. Teasers are easy to hit, but the downside is the 20% vig. You have to hit a high percentage.

You often hear that teasers are a "sucker" bet but that's as ridiculous as saying that exotic bets in horseracing are sucker bets, which many people used to say.

[lamboguy]

I usually play 10 point three team teasers, not the 7 point two bet teasers and I've done well with this bet. I post them on my website, this year I was 12-5 plus $595.00 betting mostly $100 bets, with one winning $200 bet and four winning $50 bets. Teasers are easy to hit, but the downside is the 20% vig. You have to hit a high percentage.

You often hear that teasers are a "sucker" bet but that's as ridiculous as saying that exotic bets in horseracing are sucker bets, which many people used to say.actually i thought that the teaser that you put together is anything but a suckers bet. to be quite frank, i have no idea why the place you played it at even took a teaser on the same game.

the way you structured your bet may not be so hot by giving away the tie, but other than that i see it as a great bet even though i happen not to agree with the side selection.

[Robert Fischer]

New England's DEFENSE also has a mastery of passing theory. Just as with their Offense, their Defensive roster is also stacked with functional, teachable players.
If this is a bettable game, that is probably where I see the value. - I don't think the average betting dollar appreciates the mastery and adaptability of the New England defense.


Atlanta may have one of the greatest passing games of all time.
They have a brilliant offense. Ryan seamlessly scans and checks-down, as necessary. There's not a better QB right now than Matt Ryan, when it comes to putting a ball in a window, that is yet to have opened when he makes the decision to throw.

Atlanta is capable of playing within +5<--->-5 points of New England's best game. With a couple big plays or turnovers, Atlanta could win comfortably.
I expect the Patriots to pull away, take complete control of the game, and perhaps make some big plays toward the end to increase the gap.

41-31 New England

[lamboguy]

you guys are giving The Falcons to much credit. the game is a total mismatch. in other words New England Patriots are a living lock.

i strongly suggest you make your travel plans to get to Nevada and bring suitcases full of cash and don't be afraid to plunk your money down.

p.s. if there ever was a team that i hate, its the New England Patriots. but i happen to love money a whole lot more.

[Secondbest]

I was reading an arcicle on Vegas insider.It seems one the books took an early futures bet on Atlanta. $5000.00 at 40-1.(five thousand)

[Valuist]

I haven't bet yet. To me its Atlanta or pass. I'm hoping the line hits 4 at some point.

New England faced the easiest strength of schedule in the entire NFL. This year, they went up against Russell Wilson (who was hurt much of the year) and a 35 year old rapidly aging Roethlisberger. In the other game vs Pitt, Landry Jones started. The QBs the Pats have faced looks like a clown school, so we know their defense isn't as good as their stats.

Atlanta? Their defensive stats aren't great, but Atlanta played with big leads often and prevent defenses mean needless points and yards get traded for time off the clock. While not great, their defense is a bit better than the stats.

Offensively, Ryan will be league MVP. This team reminds me of the 1999 Rams with their explosiveness. The public likes betting brand names, and a team like New England is who Joe Public will be betting. But Joe Public doesn't fully realize how good Atlanta's offense is.

[PhantomOnTour]

I haven't bet yet. To me its Atlanta or pass. I'm hoping the line hits 4 at some point.

New England faced the easiest strength of schedule in the entire NFL. This year, they went up against Russell Wilson (who was hurt much of the year) and a 35 year old rapidly aging Roethlisberger. In the other game vs Pitt, Landry Jones started. The QBs the Pats have faced looks like a clown school, so we know their defense isn't as good as their stats.

Atlanta? Their defensive stats aren't great, but Atlanta played with big leads often and prevent defenses mean needless points and yards get traded for time off the clock. While not great, their defense is a bit better than the stats.

Offensively, Ryan will be league MVP. This team reminds me of the 1999 Rams with their explosiveness. The public likes betting brand names, and a team like New England is who Joe Public will be betting. But Joe Public doesn't fully realize how good Atlanta's offense is.
Yes he does, but I think Joe Public has no idea how good New England's defense is, because Brady overshadows them.

[lamboguy]

Yes he does, but I think Joe Public has no idea how good New England's defense is, because Brady overshadows them.Joe the Public is already on Atlanta. the line opened up 3 1/2 and is now down to 3. Joe the Public saw with their own 2 eyes how The Falcons demolished a rotten Packer squad.
Joe the Public didn't think Brexit was going to happen, they didn't give Trump a chinaman's chance and they certainly can't see The Falcon's losing this superbowl. to be quite honest with you, i really don't think it was Joe the Public that went wrong, i think the expert's are generally not so expert in predicting anything these days. Joe the Public only listens to those experts.

[Secondbest]

Atlanta crushed Green Bay team that had 3 starters in the defensive backfield out.The fourth got hurt during the game along with a few other players.They beat a Seattle team without Earl Thomas and and a banged up Sherman.
New Englands defense is healthy and they lead the league in scoring and points allowed.Plus NE has an offense that can score against Atlanta.
On the other side all of New England's Super Bowls are close games both ways.

[_______]

Bovada's line is currently NE -3 -125/ATL +3 +105

If that is representative of action elsewhere, the line is more likely to move to 2.5 than anywhere near 4.

And the public is decidedly on New England giving 3.

[pandy]

I was reading an arcicle on Vegas insider.It seems one the books took an early futures bet on Atlanta. $5000.00 at 40-1.(five thousand)


Vegas Dave had a good write up on Atlanta before last week's game. I think he got 75-1 on Atlanta to win the Super Bowl.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwood/2017/01/12/2017-nfl-playoffs-picks-trust-a-vegas-pro-the-atlanta-falcons-are-a-lock-to-win-super-bowl-51/#5b34bad12e4c

[Valuist]

Bovada's line is currently NE -3 -125/ATL +3 +105

If that is representative of action elsewhere, the line is more likely to move to 2.5 than anywhere near 4.

And the public is decidedly on New England giving 3.

No, that line reflects a more likely line move to 3 1/2 than 2 1/2. I wouldn't be shocked if it hit 4 by gametime. New England is an overwhelming public team.

[Valuist]

Yes he does, but I think Joe Public has no idea how good New England's defense is, because Brady overshadows them.

Joe Public believes New England's defense is better than it is in reality, because he doesn't pay attention to strength of schedule.

[Nitro]

Some Scoring Stats for Thought:

Falcons & Patriots - 2016 Common Teams Played

23 Falcons vs. 16 Broncos (@ Broncos)
16 Patriots vs. 3 Broncos (@ Broncos)

38 Falcons vs. 19 Cardinals (@ Falcons)
23 Patriots vs. 21 Cardinals (@ Cardinals)

43 Falcons vs. 14 Rams (@ Rams)
26 Patriots vs. 10 Rams (@ Patriots)

42 Falcons vs. 14 49ers (@ Falcons)
30 Patriots vs. 17 49ers (@ 49ers)

24 Falcons vs. 26 Seahawks (@ Seahawks)
24 Patriots vs. 31 Seahawks (@ Patriots)

Based on just these stats which team would you prefer to win the Super bowl?

Then think about the recent Playoff results and the teams involved:

36 Falcons vs. 20 Seahawks (@ Falcons)
34 Patriots vs. 16 Texans (@ Patriots)

44 Falcons vs. 21 Packers (@ Falcons)
36 Patriots vs. 17 Steelers (@ Patriots)

[lamboguy]

Some Scoring Stats for Thought:

Falcons & Patriots - 2016 Common Teams Played

23 Falcons vs. 16 Broncos (@ Broncos)
16 Patriots vs. 3 Broncos (@ Broncos)

38 Falcons vs. 19 Cardinals (@ Falcons)
23 Patriots vs. 21 Cardinals (@ Cardinals)

43 Falcons vs. 14 Rams (@ Rams)
26 Patriots vs. 10 Rams (@ Patriots)

42 Falcons vs. 14 49ers (@ Falcons)
30 Patriots vs. 17 49ers (@ 49ers)

24 Falcons vs. 26 Seahawks (@ Seahawks)
24 Patriots vs. 31 Seahawks (@ Patriots)

Based on just these stats which team would you prefer to win the Super bowl?

Then think about the recent Playoff results and the teams involved:

36 Falcons vs. 20 Seahawks (@ Falcons)
34 Patriots vs. 16 Texans (@ Patriots)

44 Falcons vs. 21 Packers (@ Falcons)
36 Patriots vs. 17 Steelers (@ Patriots)its a dirty old shame that they have to play the actual game on the field and not on paper, otherwise we would all be multi-millionaires

[BetHorses!]

No, that line reflects a more likely line move to 3 1/2 than 2 1/2. I wouldn't be shocked if it hit 4 by gametime. New England is an overwhelming public team.


I think 3 -130 will be the line come kickoff

[rastajenk]

I saw a stat on Mike & Mike this week that claimed there have been five Super Bowls involving the top offense (pts scored) and the top defense (pts allowed). Defense has won four of the five.

For what that's worth. :cool:

[lamboguy]

I saw a stat on Mike & Mike this week that claimed there have been five Super Bowls involving the top offense (pts scored) and the top defense (pts allowed). Defense has won four of the five.

For what that's worth. :cool:i didn't happen to know that statistic, but what i can tell you is that everyone is making a big mistake as far as strength of schedule goes, also the biggest difference between the 2 teams which happens to be that the Falcon's are geared around their star players while the Patriot's are very system oriented. this should lead to a major blowout to this game.

[rastajenk]

Strength of schedule is far more important in the unbalanced world of college football than in the NFL, the Paragon of Parity. Although it is surprising sometimes how some franchises can be so bad for extended periods when they have everything going for them to get better. But the middle 2/3's in any season are about a couple missed field goals, a key injury or two, and a controversial call from being all 8-8.

[Robert Fischer]

strength of schedule is important in the NFL , but has to be taken in context

A team like the Patriots uses their weak schedule as a huge advantage. They peak for the deep-playoffs, and use the season to perfect their system.

a team like the Dolphins uses their weak schedule to peak wildly mid-season and is happy as hell that they made the wildcard and went 10-6.

If you downgrade the Patriots statistics for having a weak schedule, you kind of miss the point.


You've got guys like Ryan, Chung, Mcourty, Butler as defensive backs who have been with the Patriots for several years working together. They were hand-picked as teachable guys. They've been taught by the best coaches in the world about how to master the theory that those coaches believe in.

[Nitro]

its a dirty old shame that they have to play the actual game on the field and not on paper, otherwise we would all be multi-millionairesYou’re Right in one respect, but the actual points scored does reflect some sort of capability.

You know what they say: “On any given Sunday….”
How would anyone explain that 16-0 Patriot Loss to the Bills @ Home,
Or the 29 -28 Falcon Loss to the Chiefs @ Home.

SB #51 Current Line – Patriots (– 3) & Over/Under 58 1/2
My line on this year’s Super bowl would be Atlanta (-3) and Over/Under 60.

An interesting Stat: “The underdog has won the Super Bowl in each of the last five years.”
Will this trend continue? I think so.

[Valuist]

I think 3 -130 will be the line come kickoff

I said at EOG it will not only hit 3 1/2, but probably 4. There will be a flood of New England money. The Super Bowl is one instance where public money overwhelms sharp money. We still have a long ways until kickoff.

It's time to find some good props.

[Robert Fischer]

I said at EOG it will not only hit 3 1/2, but probably 4. There will be a flood of New England money. The Super Bowl is one instance where public money overwhelms sharp money. We still have a long ways until kickoff.

I'm guessing here, but I agree with you.

My guess is that "-3" is an "anchor".

They are telling the public that it is a close game, and that -3 is reasonable.
I would guess the line will climb, perhaps even above 4 by game time.

[Valuist]

strength of schedule is important in the NFL , but has to be taken in context

A team like the Patriots uses their weak schedule as a huge advantage. They peak for the deep-playoffs, and use the season to perfect their system.

a team like the Dolphins uses their weak schedule to peak wildly mid-season and is happy as hell that they made the wildcard and went 10-6.

If you downgrade the Patriots statistics for having a weak schedule, you kind of miss the point.


You've got guys like Ryan, Chung, Mcourty, Butler as defensive backs who have been with the Patriots for several years working together. They were hand-picked as teachable guys. They've been taught by the best coaches in the world about how to master the theory that those coaches believe in.

My point on strength of schedule is that any statistic for a team that played that easy of a schedule, must be adjusted in some way. All the metrics have to be questioned.

If one were to go to any coach in the NFL and say "here's the list of QBs you will face", and that list of QBs was who the Patriots faced, there's not a single coach who wouldn't take that schedule. They never faced Rodgers, never faced Brady (obviously), haven't yet faced Ryan. Didn't face Brees, Prescott, Derek Carr, Newton or Luck. They didn't even face more middle tier guys like Stafford, Cousins, Mariota or Bradford. And when they did get Pitt in the regular season, it was Landry Jones. When they got Miami in the playoffs, it was the backup (Matt Moore). Interesting that Football Outsiders, which does adjust for SOS, had New England only as the 16th best defense, based on regular season numbers.

[lamboguy]

You’re Right in one respect, but the actual points scored does reflect some sort of capability.

You know what they say: “On any given Sunday….”
How would anyone explain that 16-0 Patriot Loss to the Bills @ Home,
Or the 29 -28 Falcon Loss to the Chiefs @ Home.

SB #51 Current Line – Patriots (– 3) & Over/Under 58 1/2
My line on this year’s Super bowl would be Atlanta (-3) and Over/Under 60.

An interesting Stat: “The underdog has won the Super Bowl in each of the last five years.”
Will this trend continue? I think so.trying to use statistics in the NFL will bring you worse results than trying to read a racing form at Sha-Tin!

if i ever posted what i made this football line on here the men in the white coats would be carrying me away. i have this game as a total mismatch.

[Robert Fischer]

My point on strength of schedule is that any statistic for a team that played that easy of a schedule, must be adjusted in some way. All the metrics have to be questioned.

If one were to go to any coach in the NFL and say "here's the list of QBs you will face", and that list of QBs was who the Patriots faced, there's not a single coach who wouldn't take that schedule. They never faced Rodgers, never faced Brady (obviously), haven't yet faced Ryan. Didn't face Brees, Prescott, Derek Carr, Newton or Luck. They didn't even face more middle tier guys like Stafford, Cousins, Mariota or Bradford. And when they did get Pitt in the regular season, it was Landry Jones. When they got Miami in the playoffs, it was the backup (Matt Moore). Interesting that Football Outsiders, which does adjust for SOS, had New England only as the 16th best defense, based on regular season numbers.

That's a fun way to play with numbers, and it's even going to reflect reality in some team comparisons. The problem with applying it to a team like the Patriots is that other models have a greater significance.


I think it is slightly funny that when we started the 2016 NFL Thread (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=131789), the first thing that I mentioned about the season was the Patriots, and their weak SOS:

New England plays the Jets, Bills, Fins twice

haven't checked the SOS stats, but that never hurts
you immediately countered with:
NE schedule is middle of the road.


Now, the SOS? is suddenly some important bit of information that is overlooked in appraising their defense?
Maybe by someone judging a defense statistically.
Not by me.

[pandy]

I said at EOG it will not only hit 3 1/2, but probably 4. There will be a flood of New England money. The Super Bowl is one instance where public money overwhelms sharp money. We still have a long ways until kickoff.

It's time to find some good props.


Good point. I've generally made larger bets in the Super Bowl than in regular season games precisely because of this, the betting is different because the reputation team, or the team that had the better won-loss record during the season is rated too high on the line.