Arrogate has to regress... right [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Mc990

01-22-2017, 01:16 PM

I'm surprised that there hasn't been more talk of this. Understandably not everyone buys into "sheet theory" and "bounces" but if you do, this race has bounce written all over it.

The figures he earned in his last 2 are monstrous... All time great. Horses just don't maintain that level without eventually tailing off. Especially since the Travers race was such a jump up.

Now he could certainly bounce and win but he doesn't have any any appreciable advantage over a handful of others at that point. I'll personally be looking to beat him and I'll also be looking to best Chrome if he draws wide.

Every time I re-watch the Classic, I can't help but think the race may have "gutted" both of them....

01-22-2017, 01:22 PM

SuperPickle

01-22-2017, 03:45 PM

Tom

01-22-2017, 03:58 PM

I would say 6-8 weeks and the bounce threat is gone.
The horse has had plenty of time to recover.
In the old days, when horses ran more than they do today, it was something more than it is now.

SuperPickle

01-22-2017, 04:06 PM

I would say 6-8 weeks and the bounce threat is gone.
The horse has had plenty of time to recover.
In the old days, when horses ran more than they do today, it was something more than it is now.

Exactly. The horse has raced one since August. The bounce is based on the idea a horse regresses from a huge effort when wheeled back in a short to moderate time frame.

To sum it up there's nothing to bounce from.

JustRalph

01-22-2017, 04:14 PM

He sure looks great on tv this morning

Exotic1

01-22-2017, 04:18 PM

I'm less concerned about a bounce and more concerned that is 8 works enough.

Considering Baffert did nothing with the horse till around Thanksgiving I doubt bounce is in the cards. But being 90% could be.

I agree. If Arrogate doesn't run well it will most likely be due to missed works, bad weather in So. CA, Plan B, shipping late, etc. all the while Chrome has been chillin' in South Beach not having missed a beat. Everything has to fall perfectly to beat Chrome. Not sure everything is falling into place perfectly for Arrogate.

Mc990

01-22-2017, 05:04 PM

How long does it take for a bounce to be out of the question? The last race was nearly three months ago. That is where I have trouble with the bounce theory personally. I've played sports all my life and if I overdo it one day, sure, I might feel it the next one and ever for a few days later. But it doesn't last forever.

There are many reasons horses regress off of big efforts. "Bouncing" just seems like a catch all to me. I do think there are certain times horses are not physically ready off a best effort, but not racing for three months rules that out for me.

Yes, I agree that generally more time tends to mitigate the likelihood of a bounce. I view his last 2 races as "knockout numbers" though. On some figures, I imagine they were the fastest back to back races ever.

We could be looking at the fastest horse of all time who will defy probability but at around even money, it makes sense to me to play for the regression

Redboard

01-22-2017, 06:46 PM

Yes, I agree that generally more time tends to mitigate the likelihood of a bounce. I view his last 2 races as "knockout numbers" though. On some figures, I imagine they were the fastest back to back races ever.

We could be looking at the fastest horse of all time who will defy probability but at around even money, it makes sense to me to play for the regression
CC will be around even money too. Don't tear your hair out trying to handicap these two, just flip a coin.

01-22-2017, 07:01 PM

CC will be around even money too. Don't tear your hair out trying to handicap these two, just flip a coin.

That is the thing with this race. Tough to come up with anything clever.

UnionRags

01-23-2017, 12:36 AM

Shared Belief or Arrogate?

classhandicapper

01-23-2017, 12:05 PM

burnsy

01-23-2017, 12:18 PM

I don't think he has to regress to lose. He may lose because this is CC's most likely best lick, 9 furlongs on a speed strip. if that track comes up fast, this is Chromes best chance.

Mc990

01-23-2017, 12:55 PM

My feeling is that even if you totally reject the "physical" bounce theory, how many horses in history have put up 3 consecutive 120s when they got really sharp? That doesn't mean he can't run a 117/118 and still win. It's just a little too soon for me to think 120s are going to be the norm for this or any other horse.

Agree. If he does it again, it's absolutely the best 3 race stretch of all time. As horseplayers, I feel we need to be skeptical though... I want to see it first and I need more than even money to see it. Even if he does pair his last two, I'm not sure he's the most likely winner... We should know a lot more by this evening.

I may be in the minority but I think this race absolutely presents some potential value. Setting aside the Arrogate debate for a minute, I believe 3-4 horses will be severely hindered by a wide draw.

SG4

01-23-2017, 03:20 PM

Agree. If he does it again, it's absolutely the best 3 race stretch of all time .

Any chance you're forgetting a 5 week span in the spring of 1973?

01-23-2017, 03:41 PM

Any chance you're forgetting a 5 week span in the spring of 1973?

Have to agree with this, I'll take three massive efforts in 5 weeks over three massive efforts in 5 months. It isn't even close.

Mc990

01-23-2017, 04:05 PM

Have to agree with this, I'll take three massive efforts in 5 weeks over three massive efforts in 5 months. It isn't even close.

Yes, I will agree that the 5 week spacing makes it more impressive... relatively speaking.

I'm 100% of the belief that horses are getting faster. Just like human athletes are getting bigger, faster, stronger. Selective breeding along with better training principles, better nutrition, PED's all point to horses being faster. Track composition is obviously different than it was 40 years ago as well... rendering comparing times useless.

I know this is a controversial subject but I've yet to hear a compelling counter-argument to it.

Cratos

01-23-2017, 04:13 PM

Agree. If he does it again, it's absolutely the best 3 race stretch of all time. As horseplayers, I feel we need to be skeptical though... I want to see it first and I need more than even money to see it. Even if he does pair his last two, I'm not sure he's the most likely winner... We should know a lot more by this evening.

I may be in the minority but I think this race absolutely presents some potential value. Setting aside the Arrogate debate for a minute, I believe 3-4 horses will be severely hindered by a wide draw.
Arrogate’s wins in the Travers and the BC Classic must be considered as two of the greatest back-to-back race performances in North American racing history, but to say that they are the best I would argue that Secretariat’s 1973 TC wins (all track records) including a world record at the 1-1/2 mile distance were far better back-to-back race performances.

Additionally, IMHO Dr. Fager’s last 4 career races where he won all of them under handicap conditions and set track/world records in two of them are even better back-to-back race performances.

However, this doesn’t cast a shadow over Arrogate’s excellent race performances, but it does show how myopic we become when we don’t examine history.

Mc990

01-23-2017, 04:24 PM

Arrogate’s wins in the Travers and the BC Classic must be considered as two of the greatest back-to-back race performances in North American racing history, but to say that they are the best I would argue that Secretariat’s 1973 TC wins (all track records) including a world record at the 1-1/2 mile distance were far better back-to-back race performances.

Additionally, IMHO Dr. Fager’s last 4 career races where he won all of them under handicap conditions and set track/world records in two of them are even better back-to-back race performances.

However, this doesn’t cast a shadow over Arrogate’s excellent race performances, but it does show how myopic we become when we don’t examine history.

Let me slightly amend what I said. "If he does it again, its absolutely the fastest 3 race stretch of all time".

I can certainly appreciate greatness in an era but just like you can't compare the '72 Dolphins to today's NFL teams, I don't think you can compare racehorses from different eras. I believe we have sufficient evidence to say they are faster these days but the many variables make it difficult to quantify by exactly how much. Just like it'd be difficult to make a point spread for the '72 Dolphins vs the '16 Patriots... I just know it would be high

Cratos

01-23-2017, 04:34 PM

Yes, I will agree that the 5 week spacing makes it more impressive... relatively speaking.

I'm 100% of the belief that horses are getting faster. Just like human athletes are getting bigger, faster, stronger. Selective breeding along with better training principles, better nutrition, PED's all point to horses being faster. Track composition is obviously different than it was 40 years ago as well... rendering comparing times useless.

I know this is a controversial subject but I've yet to hear a compelling counter-argument to it.
Incidentally, the days between races are as follows:

Arrogate’s Travers to PWC = 154 days

Secretariat’s TC = 35 days

Dr. Fager’s last 4 career starts = 91 days

Cratos

01-23-2017, 04:50 PM

Let me slightly amend what I said. "If he does it again, its absolutely the fastest 3 race stretch of all time".

I can certainly appreciate greatness in an era but just like you can't compare the '72 Dolphins to today's NFL teams, I don't think you can compare racehorses from different eras. I believe we have sufficient evidence to say they are faster these days but the many variables make it difficult to quantify by exactly how much. Just like it'd be difficult to make a point spread for the '72 Dolphins vs the '16 Patriots... I just know it would be high

I don’t believe we have sufficient evidence to prove any of the sort and I would like to see your statistical reference with its scientific underpinnings to support your claim. If anything, the evidence taken randomly would support the opposite because Secretariat’s 1-1/2 mile record is still standing after 44 years and Dr. Fager’s 49 year old mile record has been broken only by very small decimal time fractions

Mc990

01-23-2017, 05:22 PM

I don’t believe we have sufficient evidence to prove any of the sort and I would like to see your statistical reference with its scientific underpinnings to support your claim. If anything, the evidence taken randomly would support the opposite because Secretariat’s 1-1/2 mile record is still standing after 44 years and Dr. Fager’s 49 year old mile record has been broken only by very small decimal time fractions

Track compositions have changed. Mostly for safety issues. Difficult to compare times from different eras

Cratos

01-23-2017, 09:03 PM

Track compositions have changed. Mostly for safety issues. Difficult to compare times from different eras
Track composition would be the least of my concerns if I was during the analysis. What would concern me the most would be the evolution of the horse’s care.

Time is a "what"; you should be comparing a "why."

Mc990

01-23-2017, 10:40 PM

Track composition would be the least of my concerns if I was during the analysis. What would concern me the most would be the evolution of the horse’s care.

Time is a "what"; you should be comparing a "why."

Why are horses getting faster? As I mentioned already, selective breeding, better training principles, better nutrition, PEDs.

Why were times slightly faster years ago? Different track compositions

This will remain a subjective argument since we obviously can't line them up in the starting gate

Like I said, I know it's a controversial subject but I've heard both sides and I have my opinion

Spalding No!

01-23-2017, 10:57 PM

Why are horses getting faster? As I mentioned already, selective breeding, better training principles, better nutrition, PEDs.
Are you taking these factors for granted? For example, what are the better training principles that have been implemented in current race training?

Cratos

01-23-2017, 11:26 PM

Why are horses getting faster? As I mentioned already, selective breeding, better training principles, better nutrition, PEDs.

Why were times slightly faster years ago? Different track compositions

This will remain a subjective argument since we obviously can't line them up in the starting gate

Like I said, I know it's a controversial subject but I've heard both sides and I have my opinion
I am not being cynical, but inherent in your postulation is “throwing enough mud at the wall and some mud will stick.”

You have stated horses getting faster several times and inferred that part of that “getting faster” is track composition. That is true if the composition reduced the track’s surface deformation causing a reduction in static force, but that phenomena was just as real and correctable in 1917 horseracing as it is in 2017 horseracing; you need a much better argument.

The primary two “why” factors that either slow a horse’s velocity or allow the horse to increase its velocity is a change in the ambient environmental friction or a change reducing the horse’s energy. Both can easily be calculated and compared over time.

menifee

01-24-2017, 12:01 AM

i think Formal Gold and Skipaway ran three consecutive 120s in the 90's. Formal Gold ran 126,124,125 in his last three races of 1997.

Cigar only hit 120 once. Ghostzapper did it 3 times. Ghostzapper ran a 122 in the Met and 124 in the BC classic. What an amazing racehorse he was to run that figure going two turns and one turn.

CC is very similar to Mineshaft - horse just runs consistent 110-120 races every single time he runs.

Mc990

01-24-2017, 04:37 AM

I am not being cynical, but inherent in your postulation is “throwing enough mud at the wall and some mud will stick.”

You have stated horses getting faster several times and inferred that part of that “getting faster” is track composition. That is true if the composition reduced the track’s surface deformation causing a reduction in static force, but that phenomena was just as real and correctable in 1917 horseracing as it is in 2017 horseracing; you need a much better argument.

The primary two “why” factors that either slow a horse’s velocity or allow the horse to increase its velocity is a change in the ambient environmental friction or a change reducing the horse’s energy. Both can easily be calculated and compared over time.

Obviously the velocity of the horse hasn't increased... If that were the case, times would be faster. They're not. What I'm saying is if today's thoroughbred were running on the tracks used 40 years ago, you would see increased velocity and faster times.

Here's a link to a study that maybe describes it better than I can.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/06/150623-horses-racing-animals-science-speed-sports-britain/

Thoro-graph also has a writeup on their site that makes a whole lot of sense.

You don't have to agree with me. That's what makes this game great. I'm just surprised that you (and most others it seems) are so quick to dismiss it as a possibility. As I said, it will remain a subjective argument. Hell, there are opposing scientific studies on this matter.

Mc990

01-24-2017, 04:45 AM

Are you taking these factors for granted? For example, what are the better training principles that have been implemented in current race training?

Not taking them for granted, just deducing that all are better in today's game and it logically leads to the conclusion that we have a better equine athlete

Training principles? Number one would be race spacing... It's producing better "peak" efforts IMO. Much like baseball managers have learned better ways to manage their pitching staff to get maximum value and NFL coaches have gone to running back by committee because most times a "fresh" back mitigates the possible slight talent dropoff from rb1 to rb2

Spalding No!

01-24-2017, 05:55 AM

Not taking them for granted, just deducing that all are better in today's game and it logically leads to the conclusion that we have a better equine athlete.

Training principles? Number one would be race spacing... It's producing better "peak" efforts IMO.
You might be right that the modern racehorse is actually faster but doesn't necessarily make it a better athlete.

As you already admitted, the price of greater speed appears to be a contradiction...less racing performances. You might chalk that up to diminished longevity or increased fragility.

Meanwhile, another price paid concerns stamina. As the article you linked says, the main proof of increased speed is in sprint racing. In North America we are left with all of 5 open Grade 1 races at 10f on the main track, and two of those (the Big Cap and Gold Cup) are suspect to hold on to that designation. And the Jockey Club Gold Cup, just weeks before the BC Classic is subject to the new "training methods" and also risks being downgraded. There is no open Grade 1s beyond 10f.

The pursuit of speed to the detriment of all else has been a major contributor to the slow demise of the sport.

The irony of this misguided emphasis on speed as the sole marker of equine greatness is that sprinters historically have been inferior to route horses, the latter often defeating the former at their own game (at least in extended sprints):

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garyscpa

01-24-2017, 07:18 AM

Obviously the velocity of the horse hasn't increased... If that were the case, times would be faster. They're not. What I'm saying is if today's thoroughbred were running on the tracks used 40 years ago, you would see increased velocity and faster times.

Here's a link to a study that maybe describes it better than I can.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/06/150623-horses-racing-animals-science-speed-sports-britain/

Thoro-graph also has a writeup on their site that makes a whole lot of sense.

You don't have to agree with me. That's what makes this game great. I'm just surprised that you (and most others it seems) are so quick to dismiss it as a possibility. As I said, it will remain a subjective argument. Hell, there are opposing scientific studies on this matter.

Creators, it's called "resistance."

AskinHaskin

01-24-2017, 12:42 PM

I'm less concerned about a bounce and more concerned that is 8 works enough.

Considering Baffert did nothing with the horse till around Thanksgiving I doubt bounce is in the cards. But being 90% could be.

Baffert's workout regiment is something for the ages, and after his having had SO many great horses on SO many great campaigns over SO many years... it is highly probable that he has Arrogate right where he wants him to be at this point.

Arrogate, like Bodemeister and a host of others, had such a foundation beneath them from steady workouts over a long period of time, that layoff data just doesn't compare to layoff productivity from other barns.

Consider that Bodemeister didn't even debut until January 16, and despite that he began working on June 9th and only once during that long stretch did he show as much as a 22-day gap in the works. (next-widest gap was 12 days)

Baffert has SO many good ones on the conveyor belt that he can afford to exercise just that patience with all of them, and Baffert clearly knows how to have them at concert pitch on the big days.

Arrogate began on the similar time frame, but he just had a significant setback which kept him from working between July 18, 2015 and January 12, 2016.

So his evolution was just delayed past the most coveted date on the Baffert calendar, yet the pattern is still there.

Arrogate worked-out 36 times in 2016 and add to that his 6 starts while allowing perhaps a week off after each start, along with a few weeks off after that last job-well-done... and you have a fit race horse.

So it isn't the "8 works" since the BC that has Arrogate primed, it was the long foundation beginning on January 12, 2016 which has Arrogate plenty fit.

Cratos

01-24-2017, 02:14 PM

Baffert's workout regiment is something for the ages, and after his having had SO many great horses on SO many great campaigns over SO many years... it is highly probable that he has Arrogate right where he wants him to be at this point.

Arrogate, like Bodemeister and a host of others, had such a foundation beneath them from steady workouts over a long period of time, that layoff data just doesn't compare to layoff productivity from other barns.

Consider that Bodemeister didn't even debut until January 16, and despite that he began working on June 9th and only once during that long stretch did he show as much as a 22-day gap in the works. (next-widest gap was 12 days)

Baffert has SO many good ones on the conveyor belt that he can afford to exercise just that patience with all of them, and Baffert clearly knows how to have them at concert pitch on the big days.

Arrogate began on the similar time frame, but he just had a significant setback which kept him from working between July 18, 2015 and January 12, 2016.

So his evolution was just delayed past the most coveted date on the Baffert calendar, yet the pattern is still there.

Arrogate worked-out 36 times in 2016 and add to that his 6 starts while allowing perhaps a week off after each start, along with a few weeks off after that last job-well-done... and you have a fit race horse.

So it isn't the "8 works" since the BC that has Arrogate primed, it was the long foundation beginning on January 12, 2016 which has Arrogate plenty fit.

I am as a big Arrogate fan as there is, but I am not comfortable with his 84 day layoff between the BCC and PWC. Yes, he was off 70 days between the Travers and the BCC; and won, but this is a shorter race.

Rex Phinney

01-24-2017, 03:49 PM

I have to think that Baffert would not be bringing Arrogate if he wasn't ready to roll 100%.

Nobody ships a racehorse cross country like Bob Baffert can. His record is maybe the best EVER when shipping requires plane travel. Anytime cross country travel is involved and Baffert is pulling the trigger I take notice.

Of all trainers I'd be concerned with in this scenario Baffert is not one of them. His workout schedule and intensity leaves no reason to think the horse will not be 100%.

EMD4ME

01-24-2017, 10:13 PM

How often has Baffert shipped to FL? What's his record in those ships?

I see him with zero starters in 5 years at GP.

outofthebox

01-24-2017, 10:41 PM

How often has Baffert shipped to FL? What's his record in those ships?

I see him with zero starters in 5 years at GP.Not sure on that. He did win the 92 BC Sprint with Thirty Slews and the 2001 Donn with Captain Steve. He has really never needed to ship here during the winter with SA and Oaklawn his main focus

Tee

01-25-2017, 01:01 AM

Article I just read says 17 total starts at Gulfstream, Arrogate the first one in 10 years.

EMD4ME

01-25-2017, 06:46 AM

How do medication rules in FL differ vs. CA? And I'm not talking bute or lasix.

outofthebox

01-25-2017, 08:48 AM

How do medication rules in FL differ vs. CA? And I'm not talking bute or lasix.They are both strict. All runners will be in a 24 detention barn. No need to worry...

Rex Phinney

01-25-2017, 10:20 AM

How many has Art Sherman ran at Gulfstream?

The track is a bit of a wildcard for all of them.

MonmouthParkJoe

01-25-2017, 10:29 AM

I do think the layoff could be a concern, as is the post and shorter distance.

That being said, even if he wasnt 100% ready, he and Chrome tower over this field. For a shot at this huge payday, finishing in the top 3 is extremely lucrative.

If I had this horse and a shot at this kind of money I would walk the horse from CA myself :D

Exotic1

01-25-2017, 01:01 PM

I'm surprised that there hasn't been more talk of this. Understandably not everyone buys into "sheet theory" and "bounces" but if you do, this race has bounce written all over it.

The figures he earned in his last 2 are monstrous... All time great. Horses just don't maintain that level without eventually tailing off. Especially since the Travers race was such a jump up.

Now he could certainly bounce and win but he doesn't have any appreciable advantage over a handful of others at that point. I'll personally be looking to beat him and I'll also be looking to best Chrome if he draws wide.

......

Mc,

How do you plan on playing the race now?

outofthebox

01-25-2017, 01:32 PM

How many has Art Sherman ran at Gulfstream?

The track is a bit of a wildcard for all of them.He has started one filly and she was eased....

magwell

01-25-2017, 05:51 PM

After the draw, no way Chrome beats Arrogate Saturday no way.......:cool:

Racetrack Playa

01-25-2017, 05:54 PM

http://www.xbtv.com/video/pegasusworldcupwork/arrogate-stretched-his-legs-at-gulfstream-park-for-the-first-time-for-the-pegasus-world-cup-on-january-25th-2017/

Arrogate got his first look at Gulfstream Park

elhelmete

01-25-2017, 06:04 PM

Trifectas

Arrogate/ALL/Chrome

Exotic1

01-25-2017, 06:44 PM

Mc990

01-25-2017, 09:15 PM

Mc,

How do you plan on playing the race now?

I'll be playing Noble Bird to win. I believe the post draw helped him immensely. If he breaks clean he's got a great shot at making the lead and he only has to run his race to be a factor. In fact I think he may the only horse who won't need to improve to beat the top 2 (if he can save ground on the lead).

I think Keen Ice is circling back to a good one but the post hurts. Plus he'll be 3rd choice. Little value, if any.

I'll most likely use 4,7,9 (saver) in the multi race wagers. I'm curious how CC will get bet in the pick 4. Distant 2nd choice??

I know this is an unpopular viewpoint but I would not be surprised to see Arrogate break slow... Just saying. Take that opinion any way you'd like. I know not everyone comes from the same school of handicapping or uses the same figures/principles.

Good luck to all.

Exotic1

01-25-2017, 09:42 PM

I'll be playing Noble Bird to win. I believe the post draw helped him immensely. If he breaks clean he's got a great shot at making the lead and he only has to run his race to be a factor. In fact I think he may the only horse who won't need to improve to beat the top 2 (if he can save ground on the lead).

I think Keen Ice is circling back to a good one but the post hurts. Plus he'll be 3rd choice. Little value, if any.

I'll most likely use 4,7,9 (saver) in the multi race wagers. I'm curious how CC will get bet in the pick 4. Distant 2nd choice??

I know this is an unpopular viewpoint but I would not be surprised to see Arrogate break slow... Just saying. Take that opinion any way you'd like. I know not everyone comes from the same school of handicapping or uses the same figures/principles.

Good luck to all.

Ok. You have a plan.

Good luck as well.

magwell

01-26-2017, 02:38 PM

Arrogate looked great schooling in paddock today........:)

upthecreek

01-26-2017, 04:12 PM

Jay Privman (@DRFPrivman) tweeted at 3:24 PM on Thu, Jan 26, 2017:
Baffert showed me Arrogate has 3/4 right hind shoe, preventing small abscess on inside 1/4 from becoming 1/4 crack. He said, "No excuses."
(https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/status/824714593616482304?s=09)

PaceAdvantage

01-26-2017, 06:46 PM

Great, now they each have an excuse... :lol:

PaceAdvantage

01-26-2017, 06:50 PM

Sounds like Baffert is desperately trying to keep the legacy of the Unbridled's Song "bad wheels" from rearing it's ugly little head...

JustRalph

01-26-2017, 07:39 PM

That tweet sucks without a pic

Lemon Drop Husker

01-26-2017, 08:21 PM

Sounds like Baffert is desperately trying to keep the legacy of the Unbridled's Song "bad wheels" from rearing it's ugly little head...

On point.

To me, the "bounce" for Arrogate should have happened in the BCC. This was a lightly raced 3YO colt not only coming in off of his first stakes company win, but his first Graded Stakes win at Saratoga in not only career best fashion, but historical fashion. This was a colt that in August was running in an AOC for $80K at Del Mar, and took down the BCC all of 3 months later.

For me, I look for bounces in horses with new all-time highs that simply dwarf anything they have done before, and for them to drift back down to reality and their normal racing history. Arrogate didn't regress in the BCC against older, and much better horses. He stepped up to the plate in a contested race when the real racing began after his romp in the Travers.

However, Arrogate is also different than most. While of significant breeding, he is of Unbridled's Song like PA stated. Known for brilliancy at times, but fragile when all is typically said and done. I'm sure this is why he has been so lightly raced, and reservedly spotted.

We know Chrome.

Do we know Arrogate? That is the real question that will be answered on Saturday.

magwell

01-28-2017, 06:16 PM

After the draw, no way Chrome beats Arrogate Saturday no way.......:cool:Cant blame the post he just didn't look right at any part of the race, looking forward to see his baby's get to the races. Arrogate is a "super race horse" lets hope he stays sound, will be great to see him run this year.........:cool:

01-28-2017, 08:04 PM

Well, to be fair, he regressed a little on my numbers, 134 today after back to back 138s. But bounce, no.

Exotic1

01-28-2017, 08:48 PM

Well, to be fair, he regressed a little on my numbers, 134 today after back to back 138s. But bounce, no.

1 1/8 geared down vs. his bailiwick of 1 1/4 (or longer). A dogmatic view would say he went back a bit. Like if he doesn't "pair" (for the rest of his racing career) or go forward then he must have regressed some. Help.

Not referring to you Cj. I understand your point.

GMB@BP

01-28-2017, 11:30 PM

1 1/8 geared down vs. his bailiwick of 1 1/4 (or longer). A dogmatic view would say he went back a bit. Like if he doesn't "pair" (for the rest of his racing career) or go forward then he must have regressed some. Help.

Not referring to you Cj. I understand your point.

I dont buy the geared down, it might have slowed him a 1/5, at the very best.

Now I might buy the weather and training might have left him slightly below his very best.

Mc990

01-28-2017, 11:42 PM

I dont buy the geared down, it might have slowed him a 1/5, at the very best.

Now I might buy the weather and training might have left him slightly below his very best.

I agree wholeheartedly. Not buying geared down. Let's take a wait and see until all the figures come back. Great horse (best currently in training) and I take nothing away from him but he bounced and won

EMD4ME

01-28-2017, 11:46 PM

I'd LOVE to see Arrogate in a 9F-10F race at Belmont. I hope he just makes it to the summer.

Lemon Drop Husker

01-28-2017, 11:49 PM

I'd LOVE to see Arrogate in a 9F-10F race at Belmont. I hope he just makes it to the summer.

How about Arrogate at Saratoga?

I'm buying a ticket now.

EMD4ME

01-28-2017, 11:50 PM

How about Arrogate at Saratoga?

I'm buying a ticket now.

I meant in a 1 turn race. Of course I'd like to see him at the SPA.

thaskalos

01-28-2017, 11:52 PM

I agree wholeheartedly. Not buying geared down. Let's take a wait and see until all the figures come back. Great horse (best currently in training) and I take nothing away from him but he bounced and won

All horses should "bounce" like that.

GMB@BP

01-28-2017, 11:55 PM

Little worried about this foot issue that he has, 2 months off should help.

If he starts training in early April what would be a logical return, early Del Mar? Its actually kind of hard to envision him going to Saratoga this year. I doubt they run at 9F at Sar rather than 10 at Del Mar.

Lemon Drop Husker

01-28-2017, 11:58 PM

I meant in a 1 turn race. Of course I'd like to see him at the SPA.

No 2 turn races at the Spa?

01-29-2017, 12:00 AM

If that was a bounce lets just scrap the word from horse racing vernacular.

EMD4ME

01-29-2017, 12:02 AM

No 2 turn races at the Spa?

Of course buddy but part of me, selfishly, wants to see this horse just gallop on the open Belmont dirt, no turns to worry about, no pace scenario etc. Just run your race and I want to see if he can run a near 130 Beyer.

The best would be 10F at Belmont, with a hot pace/flow.

EMD4ME

01-29-2017, 12:03 AM

All horses should "bounce" like that.

HA HA Exactly !

Lemon Drop Husker

01-29-2017, 12:08 AM

Of course buddy but part of me, selfishly, wants to see this horse just gallop on the open Belmont dirt, no turns to worry about, no pace scenario etc. Just run your race and I want to see if he can run a near 130 Beyer.

The best would be 10F at Belmont, with a hot pace/flow.

Yeah.

I get you man.

Amazing horse with an amazing stride, and you just want to see him full out for a while at the big oval and treat you with that pretty, amazing, and relaxingly easy stride.

Lemon Drop Husker

01-29-2017, 12:11 AM

Well, to be fair, he regressed a little on my numbers, 134 today after back to back 138s. But bounce, no.

Chopped liver.

classhandicapper

01-29-2017, 12:59 AM

This was obviously another stellar performance for a horse that will likely be considered great before it's all over, but before we throw around too many superlatives about today's race, I think you have to remember that Shaman Ghost, Neolithic (who just graduated from a NW1, albeit impressively), and Keen Ice are not exactly a killer group. Going into the race virtually everyone agreed that after CC and Arrogate the rest of the field was fairly weak. Once CC didn't fire, there wasn't all that much behind him.

I hope a few horses jump up to test him later in the year, but it doesn't seem likely because the older division is weak and most of the other better 3yos from last year were either weak and/or have been retired.

Who's left?

American Freedom
Gun Runner
Dortmund (who moved away from Baffert).
Connect

Anyone else?

Cratos

01-29-2017, 01:48 AM

CincyHorseplayer

01-29-2017, 08:14 AM

How about Arrogate at Saratoga?

I'm buying a ticket now.

I've got the rest of his 2017 schedule.

Dubai World Cup(Mey)

Stephen Foster(CD)

Whitney(Sar)

Jockey Club Gold Cup(Bel)

Breeder's Cup Classic(Dmr)

Exotic1

01-29-2017, 08:57 AM

I dont buy the geared down, it might have slowed him a 1/5, at the very best.

Now I might buy the weather and training might have left him slightly below his very best.

Baffert must be happy that he got the "bounce out of the way".

classhandicapper

01-29-2017, 09:48 AM

I dont buy the geared down, it might have slowed him a 1/5, at the very best.

Now I might buy the weather and training might have left him slightly below his very best.

I suspect that if he had been sitting off better horses and was forced to give more to pick them up, he would have had enough reserve in the tank to do so, still finish well, and run a mildly faster race. If he was chasing weaker he probably would have made the same move at the same time and run a bit slower because that's all he needed.

Everyone tries to reduce this game to a figure or a figure and a trip, but IMO there's more going on when you are dealing with great horses and young inexperienced horses on the rise.

That's why the phrase "class test" made it's way into the vernacular. When tested hard, some fast horses will fold and some will reveal just a bit more.

A horse like Noble Bird is very fast. He can put up big numbers when he gets a favorable track or can relax on the lead. But he does not have the reserves to engage high quality horses and still put up a big number. But there are also examples of young rising horses that will put up a good number while loose on the lead and when challenged next out put up an even bigger one.

The idea is to figure out what you are dealing with before the test.

rgustafson

01-29-2017, 10:11 AM

I've got the rest of his 2017 schedule.

Dubai World Cup(Mey)

Stephen Foster(CD)

Whitney(Sar)

Jockey Club Gold Cup(Bel)

Breeder's Cup Classic(Dmr)

It's a long way off and a lot can happen between now and the Breeders Cup next year at Del Mar on Nov. 4th. The Dubai World Cup because of Juddmonte ownership and the money make sense and the Stephen Foster at Churchill the middle of June fits with the schedule. Not so sure about a trip to New York either at Saratoga or Belmont. The Pacific Classic on August 20th fits the schedule better and also gives him another race over the track where the Breeder Cup races will be held.

Exotic1

01-29-2017, 10:45 AM

I dont buy the geared down, it might have slowed him a 1/5, at the very best.

Now I might buy the weather and training might have left him slightly below his very best.

I imagine TG #'s will have the Pegasus 2 point off his top in the BC (which was a neg 5) when you factor in ground loss and lack of. Primed for a 0-2-x conspiracy discussion.

I don't mean anything serious with my posts, just a little banter.

Good luck.

luisbe

01-29-2017, 02:41 PM

I've got the rest of his 2017 schedule.

Dubai World Cup(Mey)

Stephen Foster(CD)

Whitney(Sar)

Jockey Club Gold Cup(Bel)

Breeder's Cup Classic(Dmr)
We'd be talking about the world biggest money earner in a 2 years campaign. Unique feature.
I'd just get rid of SFOSTER and Whitney with some San whatever in SoCal.
I wish they, a least, think about it.

zico20

01-29-2017, 02:54 PM

I've got the rest of his 2017 schedule.

Dubai World Cup(Mey)

Stephen Foster(CD)

Whitney(Sar)

Jockey Club Gold Cup(Bel)

Breeder's Cup Classic(Dmr)

I seriously doubt they are going to miss the Pacific Classic.

EasyGoer89

01-29-2017, 03:02 PM

I seriously doubt they are going to miss the Pacific Classic.

Depends on the purse Del mar better save their pennies they may have to up the ante to attract him

rgustafson

01-29-2017, 05:28 PM

Depends on the purse Del mar better save their pennies they may have to up the ante to attract him

Have to disagree with you here. Let's see, he just won $7 million and when he wins the Dubai World Cup, that's another $6 million. The advantage of racing at Del Mar, where the Breeders Cup will be held a couple of months or so later makes the purse of the race versus any type of viable alternative almost irrelevant.

01-29-2017, 08:49 PM

EasyGoer89

01-29-2017, 09:29 PM

Have to disagree with you here. Let's see, he just won $7 million and when he wins the Dubai World Cup, that's another $6 million. The advantage of racing at Del Mar, where the Breeders Cup will be held a couple of months or so later makes the purse of the race versus any type of viable alternative almost irrelevant.

He trained all summer last year at Del mar, he wins at Saratoga, Santa Anita, Gulfstream so it's not like he's going to 'not handle' Del Mar, he will be there all summer again working and training on that surface, it's not going to matter if he doesn't have a race over that track.

rgustafson

01-29-2017, 10:07 PM

He trained all summer last year at Del mar, he wins at Saratoga, Santa Anita, Gulfstream so it's not like he's going to 'not handle' Del Mar, he will be there all summer again working and training on that surface, it's not going to matter if he doesn't have a race over that track.

Of course you are right, he doesn't need another race there. The point I was really trying to make was to attempt to understand your feeling that somehow the purse was a factor and that Del Mar would have to provide some kind of monetary incentive for him to remain in California for the Pacific Classic when the timing of the race and the fact he wouldn't have to ship to New York or where ever seems advantageous to his schedule. As you said, he already has won at Saratoga so if anything maybe NYRA or some other jurisdiction would have to offer a boost in the purse to get him to come east again.

menifee

01-29-2017, 10:14 PM

We'd be talking about the world biggest money earner in a 2 years campaign. Unique feature.
I'd just get rid of SFOSTER and Whitney with some San whatever in SoCal.
I wish they, a least, think about it.

Once they get back from GP, Arrogate won't leave the state of California again in 2017.

EasyGoer89

01-29-2017, 10:49 PM

Of course you are right, he doesn't need another race there. The point I was really trying to make was to attempt to understand your feeling that somehow the purse was a factor and that Del Mar would have to provide some kind of monetary incentive for him to remain in California for the Pacific Classic when the timing of the race and the fact he wouldn't have to ship to New York or where ever seems advantageous to his schedule. As you said, he already has won at Saratoga so if anything maybe NYRA or some other jurisdiction would have to offer a boost in the purse to get him to come east again.

I see your point, no doubt that not leaving your backyard is a bonus, the horse is currently SO valuable that racing for anything less than 2 million is probably a bad idea, I don't know the pac classic purse but there's always risk in a race, especially with 6 million or so waiting at the BC.

I think at this point Del mar ought to be thinking the purse may be a factor, even if it turns out not to be.

rgustafson

01-30-2017, 08:40 AM

He isn't pointed to Dubai as of yesterday.

Ok Craig, maybe the smartest thing would be to stay home in California and play it safe and run in the Big Cap. The trip to Dubai and back has knocked out a few good horses over the years. If the long term goal now is to become the richest horse from a purse money standpoint he can still accomplish that by not leaving California and finishing his career by a repeat win in the Breeders Cup Classic at Del Mar.

tucker6

01-30-2017, 09:16 AM

CincyHorseplayer

01-30-2017, 09:24 AM

Ok Craig, maybe the smartest thing would be to stay home in California and play it safe and run in the Big Cap. The trip to Dubai and back has knocked out a few good horses over the years. If the long term goal now is to become the richest horse from a purse money standpoint he can still accomplish that by not leaving California and finishing his career by a repeat win in the Breeders Cup Classic at Del Mar.

With ever inflating purses winning the most money should not be the goal because that will be toppled naturally. Pursuing a prestigious campaign with a talented horse can keep him in the history books forever.

To me what you are saying above is exactly what is wrong with the game. Don't squander this horses keeping him in a state.

This is all setting up for Californians to adopt Arrogate since they lost Chrome. Since they need that goofy arse type of thing!

Mc990

01-30-2017, 10:19 AM

you overuse the word, "bounce".

And you obviously have no clue how speed figures are made. I want you to show me one reputable figure maker that doesn't have him going backwards. I'm no expert, but this race was an easy one to do.

tucker6

01-30-2017, 11:33 AM

outofthebox

01-30-2017, 11:44 AM

And you obviously have no clue how speed figures are made. I want you to show me one reputable figure maker that doesn't have him going backwards. I'm no expert, but this race was an easy one to do.Hi two best figures were at 1 1/4. So obviously he was supposed to come back a bit. He ate his grain in one hour, so at least he didn't bounce from the feed tub. Easy race for him.

EasyGoer89

01-30-2017, 02:42 PM

Backwards does not equal bounce.

Doesn't bounce mean running a slower figure than in previous start ?

I would imagine he bounced due to the amount of ground he lost in the classic vs less ground lost in Pegasus,

Cratos

01-30-2017, 03:50 PM

Doesn't bounce mean running a slower figure than in previous start ?

I would imagine he bounced due to the amount of ground he lost in the classic vs less ground lost in Pegasus,
Figure making is a methodology not a science and “bounce” is a derivative of that methodology.

Therefore “bounce” can have a multiplicity of definitions/interpretations depending on the underlining figure making methodology.

anotherCAfan

01-30-2017, 04:18 PM

This horse has already won at The Spa -- what more does he have to prove on the New York circuit? Unless it is for megabucks (e.g. the Dubai World Cup), why would they want to ship him around a lot?

I wouldn't be surprised if he races in the Pacific Classic and is trained up to the Breeders Cup Classic. He may as well get a race in at Del Mar at 10 panels.

Exotic1

02-01-2017, 08:34 AM

I imagine TG #'s will have the Pegasus 2 point off his top in the BC (which was a neg 5) when you factor in ground loss and lack of. Primed for a 0-2-x conspiracy discussion.

I don't mean anything serious with my posts, just a little banter.

Good luck.

Nope. TG gave Arrogate a neg 5 for the Pegasus, the same number as his BC. They used the official times for both the Poseidon and the Pegasus. Just buttoning this up.

02-01-2017, 10:54 AM

Nope. TG gave Arrogate a neg 5 for the Pegasus, the same number as his BC. They used the official times for both the Poseidon and the Pegasus. Just buttoning this up.

If they used the official time they may want to do it again.

Exotic1

02-01-2017, 11:28 AM

If they used the official time they may want to do it again.

I don't want to speak for them as I'm not certain I understand/know all the inputs and I'm probably not going to convey the intent. But, it seems like they mostly relied on the "horses" (meaning "projection") in this case and not necessarily the final time.

Becuase I started this, I'll post the post from TGJB (1/31/17 2:19pm):

"The only other two turn dirt race was 3 hours earlier. As it happens I did them about the same (using track time), but in a situation like that you're doing it off the horses, especially when you have a big field of consistent stake horses, with lots of figures to work off. This one was pretty straight forward.

For what it's worth, our trackman hand timed both races about 2/5 faster than track time. "...

02-01-2017, 12:06 PM

Yes, that is what he always says. There is some merit to it because there was a lot of time between races.

That said, I don't think the track changed at all as he is now saying of the figures don't change. A big part of the reason for the larger than expected disparity in final times (the real final times, not the official) is because of the pace of the races in my opinion, not some change in the track.

classhandicapper

02-01-2017, 01:26 PM

02-01-2017, 01:30 PM

;)

(adding words so I don't have to delete my own emoticon only post)

JohnGalt1

02-04-2017, 03:58 PM

There are so many definitions of a bounce.

My definition is when a horse off a lay off runs a hard run race. The longer the lay off the more the hard run race matters.

On Sunday 2/5 at Oaklawn race 7, the 11 horse Rippin Ranger will run. He's a 5 year old. ML 5-1 in a 12 horse field.

His last line 1/22 at 6f was 3-1, 1-hd, 1-hd, 2-1/2 in 1:11.2

His next to last race was 5/27/16.

I expect this horse will bounce off the possible tiring effort.

If it does, and runs a poor race, it could be a good bet in it's next race, and run close to the time of the 1/22 race.

I think it was Ray Taulbot who called this the back/bounce/back angle.